这是差点废了我股票副业生涯的最重头股。现在手上全空了，等着再建重仓，一旦动手，分量起码可与ＢＡＣ媲美。我的书要有一天真能出，ＤＮＤＮ是第一部的第二章，无疑也是第二部的重点章，还会是第三部的大重笔！
说起ＤＮＤＮ，可说的话已经很长。今天累了，明天续。
发现ＤＮＤＮ是２００4年在Ｙａｈｏｏ的ＥＬＮ Ｍｅｓｓａｇｅ Ｂｏａｒｄ上。看了挺久后偶尔做点，也是小赚小赔，赚则够吃顿饭、买瓶酒，赔呢也就在下个月里把每天早上的两杯咖啡减为一杯。随着ＥＬＮ带来的第一次大灾难（钱还是有那么可怜的一丁点但心里实在怕了），我就只剩关注的份了。
月换星移，日历翻到了２００６年９月，Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ根据９９０１和
９９０２ａ综合试验结果的ＢＬＡ交给了ＦＤＡ，６个月后就要有结论了。已经把帐上的节余全部借给了前妻买房作首付，怎么办？惟有Ｌｉｎｅ ｏｆ ｃｒｅｄｉｔ一条路可走了。在ＤＮＤＮ１０月的ｌｏｗ－ｂａｌｌ ｓｅｃｏｎｄａｒｙ
ｏｆｆｅｒｉｎｇ后开始建仓，共分１０次买，直到２００７年１月中终于尽我所能满仓了。接下来能做的就是等ＦＤＡ的ＡＣ和ｆｉｎａｌ ｄｅｃｉｓｉｏｎ了。
２００７年２月２９日，ＦＤＡ Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ ＢＬＡ ＡＣ在Ｎｅｗ
Ｊｅｒｓｅｙ召开，ＤＮＤＮ股票交易停牌。本打算开车去参加的，约好同行的哥们突然有急事不能走，只好在家通过网络看开会情况了。
身在渥太华、心飞新泽西！
－－－写在FDA Advisory Committee Provenge BLA 投票之前
命运的判决就在今天下午! 这一票之差对人类重大深远的意义绝非此秃笔所能描述，请允许不才引用 Neil Armstrong踏上月球后的肺腑之言：“This is a small step for man but a giant leap for mankind!”
专家组成员们刹那间的看似微不足道的一举手将判决：
１）千千万万日日夜夜与癌症病魔抗争不休的不幸患者及其家人亲属朋友们的福音是否就此降临；
２）奋斗在治癌阵地最前沿的无数医学工作者们数十年前仆后继、梦寐以求的幻想是否就此实现；
３）人类治癌史上的一项突破性科研成果是否就此得到承认；
４）人类治癌史上的一项革命性技术是否就此获得广泛应用；
５）人类医学科学史上的一个里程碑是否就此奠基树立；
６）人类医学科学史上的一页新篇章是否就此着笔谱写；
７）为支持这一造福人类壮举而胆战心惊地度过了多少不眠之夜的众多股民们是否就此脱贫致富！
值此关键的历史时刻，作为此一重大事件的直接参与者却不能身临会议现场，亲耳聆听与会者们的唇枪舌战、患者及其家人亲属朋友们向专家组成员们声泪俱下、感人肺腑的殷切诉求，亲眼目睹专家组成员们的举手投足，而只能独处窝居通过网站的二手信息支离破碎地了解会议进展情况的星星点点。此等的焦急怎不令人度秒若年？ 这般的盼望能不叫人望眼欲穿？这样的历史性经历人身能有几回？如是难忘的记忆能不永刻脑海？
不才身处远离会议现场的渥太华，心早已飞到了会议现场的新泽西。提注铅秃笔，捎去最诚挚的谢意、最恳切的愿望及最美好的祝福：
所有此一重大事件的直接间接参与者们：谢谢你们不管在多么难于言状的恶劣环境里、多么难于言状的艰难条件下的千辛万苦和不屈不挠，我们终于迎来了今天这一历史时刻！坚持最后几个小时，长夜最黑暗的时刻即将过去、黎明的曙光就在前头！
专家组成员们：愿你们听从造福人类神圣使命的召唤、谨慎地投下永载史册的一票！
癌症病魔不幸患者及你们的家人亲属朋友们：祝你们听到盼望已久的福音！
夜以继日地奋斗在治癌阵地最前沿的科学家、医生、护理人员们：祝你们梦寐以求的幻想得以实现！
认识的及尚未谋面的寝食难安的股友们：祝我们的壮举、勇气、坚韧和冒险得到因有的回报！让我们带着凯旋者的骄傲和喜悦欢聚在今年西雅图的股东大会上！！让我们为得来如此不易的大胜干杯！！！
下午４点讨论结束，投票开始，多么难熬的１０分钟呀！“Ｉｓ Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ ｓａｆｅ？＂－－－１７：０；＂Ｄｏｅｓ Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ ｐｒｏｖｉｄｅ ｓｕｂｓｔａｎｔｉａｌ ｂｅｎｅｆｉｔｓ？＂－－－１４：３！成喽，成喽，成喽！
ＤＮＤＮ２月２８日５．０９收盘，２月３０日ｐｒｅ－ｍａｒｋｅｔ１７．９开盘！看了１０分钟的正盘交易，和前女友激情做爱后，我们就上街逛了。回来看收盘在１２．５，在ａｆｔｅｒ ｈｏｕｒｓ和第二天用ｆｕｌｌ ｍａｒｇｉｎ加了仓。
接下来的一个多月时间里用日益增加的ｍａｒｇｉｎ做了几大笔别的，略有斩获，意在确保不动ＤＮＤＮ，并且一旦别的地方获利就给ＤＮＤＮ加仓，股票、５月的ｃａｌｌ，ＬＥＡＰ ｃａｌｌ及ｎａｋｅｄ的５月ｐｕｔ真是装满了“一卡车”呀，就等５月１５日ＦＤＡ的决定了！
５月９日ｐｒｅ－ｍａｒｋｅｔ，ＤＮＤＮ７．９开盘，天呐！怎么回事？ＰＲ已出，ＦＤＡ提前做了决定，Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ没获批准。看完消息，脑海里除了找钱填ｍａｒｇｉｎ没有任何别的了。呼天天不应，喊地地不灵。５月１０日早上一开盘，ＴＤＷａｔｅｒｈｏｕｓｅ在没有通知我的情况下ｍａｒｋｅｔ ｏｒｄｅｒ把我的帐户清仓，给我留下的是１５万的ｍａｒｇｉｎ ｄｅｂｔ。
巨产乌有了，梦幻破灭了，我的第二次重笔进军华尔街只能鸣金了！
为什么ＦＤＡ会有史以来第一次违反自己ＡＣ的ｏｖｅｒｗｈｅｌｍｉｎｇｌｙ
ｐｏｓｉｔｉｖｅ ｒｅｃｏｍｍｅｎｄａｔｉｏｎ做出不批Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ的决定了？各种传说可以装好几大卡车的，从已经查明的大量资料判断，既得利益集团们的阴谋大联合是无疑的，历史终将给出明确的答案。于我而言，ｉｔ ｉｓ ａｌｌ ｗａｔｅｒ ｕｎｄｅｒ ｔｈｅ ｂｒｉｄｇｅ，老子还得掠紧裤带清偿债务呢。
想想１９１８年Ｊｅｓｓｅ Ｌｉｖｅｒｍｏｒｅ咖啡期货惨败的原因，比比
２００７年ＤＮＤＮ的Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ没获批准，何其相似的人性大暴露和历史大重复呀！
还是回到对ＤＮＤＮ的分析吧。本来我是不会把长期仓位全清的，ｔｉｍｉｎｇ
ｔｈｅ ｍａｒｋｅｔ／ｎｅｗｓ ｉｓ ａｎ ｕｎｓｐｅａｋａｂｌｙ
ｈａｒｄ／ｅｎｏｒｍｏｕｓｌｙ ｓｔｕｐｉｄ ｔｈｉｎｇ ｔｏ ｄｏ．今年两次就差５分钟差点没买到ＤＮＤＮ的惊险已够令我胆颤心跳了，可一可二不可三也！但为什么这次却清仓了呢？本来期待的ＲＯＷ（ｒｅｓｔ ｏｆ ｗｏｒｌｄ）Ｐａｒｔｎｅｒｓｈｉｐ消息应该在５月间出来的。但６月股东大会已经闭幕，
ｍａｎａｇｅｍｅｎｔ要的ｏｐｔｉｏｎｓ已经批准，还不出这消息，个人判断只能是没谈拢。那就试试运气把仓清了吧，万一空仓期间出这消息，只好到时追了。
９９０２ｂ（ＩＭＰＡＣＴ）的试验结果已经公布，ｐｒｉｍａｒｙ／ｓｅｃｏｎｄａｒｙ ｅｎｄ ｐｏｉｎｔｓ全部超过ＳＰＡ（Ｓｐｅｃｉａｌ Ｐｒｏｔａｔｙｐｅ Ａｇｒｅｅｍｅｎｔ）的要求，ＦＤＡ也已经要求ＤＮＤＮ给ｐｌａｃｅｂｏ病人用Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ。Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ的ｒｅｖｉｓｅｄ ＢＬＡ将于今年第４季度上交ＦＤＡ，药物预计明年被批上市。
我的长期分析是建立在Ｐｒｏｖｅｎｇｅ上市这个基础上的。一旦上市，除了现在这个ｉｎｄｉｃａｔｉｏｎ（ＨＲＰＣ，晚期前列腺癌）的用途，大量的
ｏｆｆ－ｌａｂｅｌ ｕｓｅ是肯定的。这个ｃａｓｓｅｔｔｅ ｄｅｌｉｖｅｒｙ ｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｙ也会被广泛应用到别的药物开发上。短期内的
ｐｉｐｅｌｉｎｅ，Ｎｕｅｖｅｎｇｅ（乳腺癌，子宫癌）应该可以很快进入第二期临床试验。
文行到此，肚子饿了。以我２００７年５月４日发表在Ｓｅｅｋｉｎｇ Ａｌｐｈａ的分析结束这帖吧。两年时间，就短短的两年时间，改变了多少人的命运和ｌｉｆｅｓｔｙｌｅ呀。
Dendreon: The Next Genentech/Amgen?
I am not going to talk about current trading in Dendreon (
DNDN). Rather, I will offer some past and future perspective.
A little personal background: I first came across this little unknown biotech company on the Elan Yahoo message board (thanks a million to whoever that was) back in 2004. What a find --- the drug could be cancer treatment paradigm shifting and an investment in it could be lifestyle changing. I jumped in with both feet and immediately saw a sizable paper profit.
But that did not stay long as shorts were piling up, the pps was tanking and my broker account balance sinking. I was forced to sell my initial acquisition for a large loss. But I was never away from it. In and out, out and in and making small to mid-sized losses each time. Yikes.
Then came November 2006; after the Provenge BLA was submitted and the low-ball secondary offering was done, I went to my bank maxing out my line of credit, converting the whole sum from Canadian dollars to the greenback and wired that to TDWaterhouse. Next morning, I started buying 2000 shares, added on the way up and added on the way down and used up my margin room along the way. It took me a total of 10 buys to use up all I could muster for this unloved and unwanted stock. The capping, red-candling day in and day out did not shake my belief and my confidence. I constantly reminded myself why I got into this stock. regardless of the pps. "Keep the faith and stay the course" became a morning ritual.
I also recommended the stock to a number of friends, sharing with them my DD. Some of them got in. Others sat on the fence. I was able to convince my girlfriend to acquire 4000 shares in Februry 2007. However incredible it may sound, I watched pre-market trading for 10 minutes on March 30, 2007 and that was all the trading I watched that day.
The rest is history, as they say. "Where are we going from here and what should I do with my DNDN shares?", I constantly ask myself. We are going higher and I added shares and LEAPs --- my answers! Some concerned friends advised me to take some profits off the table. I thanked them but refused to give the friendly advice any consideration because I would not sell my shares, which I view as 70-80% undervalued a year out.
Now, let me turn to a little future perspective. I won't repeat what Provenge does and may do as the FDA AC has voted: 17-0 for safety and 13-4 for efficacy on March 29, 2007, and most believers all knew too well a lot earlier. Provenge is a godsend for men. I've heard that all men will develop PC if we live long enough. But the puck doesn't stop there. Once being marketed, Provenge will bring in much needed cash for Dendreon to launch clinical trials for Nuevenge and other pipeline drugs. To top that off, the cassette delivery technology can be applied to a wide spectrum of treatments.
I see a biotech powerhouse in the making, the next Genentech (
DNA)/Amgen (
AMGN) emerging. But Rome isn't built in one day. There will be bumps and potholes along the ride. I encourage all believers (fellow longs) to exercise patience, extreme patience, at times.
To conclude, my sincere best wishes to cancer patients and families.
Disclosure: Author is long DNDN.
Dendreon: The Next Genentech/Amgen? -- Seeking Alpha
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