世界的脉搏第一次跟随中国而跳动

ert0000 · 注册: 2005-12-07

中国经济坐世界老二交椅指日可待了.

不是涨跌本身,而是世界跟中国看齐,这具有划时代的地缘政治经济意义.

http://www.comefromchina.com/newbbs/...720&forumid=95

http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/...12-370655.html

中国股市“喷嚏”首次引发世界性“感冒” Local Access打往中国电话卡1.3￠/分种

文章来源: 德国之声于 2007-02-27 13:25:02
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中国股市“喷嚏”首次引发世界性“感冒” 德国之声

德国之声平心/黑色星期二：中国上海和深圳股市都暴跌了9％左右，达10年来最大跌幅。最有意思的是：以前对世界股市几乎毫无影响的中国股市这次明显引导了全世界的“挤泡运动”，全世界的股市都跟着跌。驻法兰克福的中国银行界一位股票业资深人士对德国之声记者说：正值东南亚金融危机10周年，10年一度股市崩溃是完全可能的。

　　沪深两市暴跌

　　2月27日，星期二，中国股市“突然放量暴跌”。沪综指从开盘的3048.83点跌至收盘时的2771.79点，下跌268.81点，跌幅达8.84%；深成指早盘开于8620.86点，报收于7790.82点，跌幅达9.29%。

　　上海股市有845家下跌，深圳股市有590家下跌。两市共有900多只个股跌停。沪市成交量明显放大，共成交1316.3亿，创出历史天量水平。两市总成交量达2007亿元。德新社说，跌得最惨的是航空公司。

　　中国和西方眼中的暴跌原因

　　至于暴跌的原因，中国一些分析师认为，主要是因为“基金赎回压力徒然增大，基金公司只有变现已经涨幅巨大的重仓股，来应对赎回潮，基金的杀跌，引发了市场恐慌抛售。”“有消息人士透露，管理层正在考虑加息、证监会主席尚福林可能离任、基金收益征收资本利得税、保险资金被要求减仓等因素促成了本次大跌。”

　　西方的报导中提到“回收利润（相当于‘赎回’）”这个概念。不象中国的报导分析得那么细，而是更多地从根本上说。法兰克福一名股票商说：“投资者们失去了把握，担心一个气泡将在中国破裂。”“气泡”－就是这个关键词。

　　是由于“尚福林”还是由于泡沫？

　　有气泡吗？这个气泡有多大呢？德国媒体指出，去年中国股值激升了130％。中国的报导说，A股目前处在平均35倍左右的市盈率水平，两倍于世界平均16倍的市盈率。中国工商银行市盈率为28倍，而世界银行业平均市盈率为14倍；中国人寿市盈率为59倍，世界保险业平均市盈率为15倍。

　　驻法兰克福的中国银行界股票业资深人士L先生（不愿公布姓名）对德国之声记者说，泡沫是肯定有的，去年年初的时候，他还建议朋友进入中国股市，现在上海都超过3000点了，太高了，他自己都不敢进去了。

　　中国喷嚏导致全世界感冒

　　西方媒体普遍看到了一个新现象：中国股市的暴跌影响了世界。世界报在线的标题是“中国的股值挫折压抑德国股市”；明镜在线的标题是“中国的股崩让世界交易所摇晃”。

　　到周二中午，欧洲综指EuroSTOXX50损失了1.23％；包含瑞士和英国股值的STOXX50跌了1.33%；Euronext 100跌了1.43%；法国的CAC 40跌了1.50%；伦敦的FTSE 100跌了1.23%；德国的Dax也跌了2%; MDax跌了3.7%;技术综指TecDax更跌了5.2%。东京综指Nikkei还算好，“只”跌了0.5%。美国股市开得晚，它今天的走向自然更值得关注。

　　不管怎么说，全世界大体上都跌了，而且许多媒体认为震源在中国。但是，到现在为止还没有看到哪个德国媒体强调这个现象的重要意义：中国股市影响世界，这在世界上似乎还是第一次。以前，中国股市怎么大起大落，对世界一点影响也没有。西方也就看个热闹，直到两年前，世界大谈中国股市骗局，一蹶不振，就象谈看一部电影的观感那样。

　　法兰克福中国股票专家L先生也证实了记者这个看法。他说：“今天中午我们银行的同事们也都在议论这件事。不光是中国股市，全世界的股市都早已‘过’了，都有泡沫。现在是中国打个喷嚏全世界感冒，轮到中国来带头挤泡沫了。”

　　为什么中国股市动向会影响世界？

　　德国之声记者认为，第一个原因是，中国对世界经济的影响力已经发生了从量到质的变化。近30年来，中国经济的高速发展始终惹人注目，引人入胜，但近年来，它已经不允许世界其它国家的人采取“旁观”态度了，因为它已经达到了牵一发而动全世界的地步：量到了一定的程度就自然成了质。明镜在线提到，中国的一举一动还关系到美元的强弱。而这对世界经济和股市自然也是一个大变数。

　　第二个原因是，世界市场上的原材料等与中国经济的冷或热息息相关。明镜在线举了个明显的例子：德国Dax指数中的蒂森克虏伯集团股值今天跌了5％。一个股票商就此说：“假如中国经济冷却，自然会把钢价往下压。”不光是钢材，许多原材料都是依赖中国的高速发展、高度需求生存的。

　　第三个原因是，中国股票和股市已经处在国际化进程中了。中国银行保险业在国外上市取得了轰动效应；许多外国基金去中国；不少西方企业参股中国上市公司。不知不觉间，中国股市忽然跟国际接起来了，再也不是完全孤立的卡西诺（赌场）了。

　　问题严重吗？

　　L先生提醒道：正好10年前，1997年，发生了东南亚金融危机。10年来一次（大危机），完全是可能的。

　　10年前的东南亚金融危机还只是一个地区性危机。当时，中国没有发生问题也是危机没有扩大的原因之一。但即使那时候中国怎么样了，对世界的影响也远不如今天这么大。现在，全世界经济正在景气起来。如果中国经济忽然出了问题，冷却下来，全世界就不光是面临股市危机的问题了。格林斯潘昨天还说，美国经济今年底将进入衰退。如果他是今天演讲，他也许会把这个预言再提前一大段时间。

　　不过，L先生认为，中国经济不会出太大问题的。因为，尽管中国政府说不干涉，但真要出问题，中国政府还是会采取措施的，包括在挽救股市方面。因此，他估计中国股市虽然不可能再出现象去年那样的疯涨，“不落就不错了”，但也不会跌得“连家都不认得了。”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17351516
Stocks Dive in Worst Selloff in Four Years on Fears of Global Slowdown
Topics:Economy (U.S.) | Economy (Global) | Market Outlook | Currencies | The Bond Report | Stock Market
Sectors:Oil & GasBy CNBC.com | 27 Feb 2007 | 07:13 PMFont size: Wall Street took its worst beating in four years, as a selloff in the Chinese stock market triggered a global stock selling spree and raised fears of a slowdown in the world economy.

"Asia sneezed and we all picked up a global chill," Frederic Dickson, Chief Market Strategist at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC.com. "We're not going to go off of the ledge but tighten up the seatbelts a notch or two because it could be a little bumpy in the next few days. There's still a tremendous cushion of cash out there with most investors waiting for a pullback to put some money to work. We'll see if they come in."

Major U.S. Indexes
DOW JONES IND... .DJIA12216.24-416.02-3.29% 740,990,000NASDAQ NMS CO... .NCOMP2407.86-96.66-3.86% 1,526,191,900S&P 500 INDEX .SPX1399.04-50.33-3.47% NaN
The Dow's 416-point drop was its worst point decline since Sept. 17, 2001, the first trading day after the Sep. 11 disaster. On that day, the Dow dropped 684 points.

Tuesday's 3.29% drop was the worst percent decline since March 24, 2003. The S&P 500 lost 3.5%, its worst loss since the day. The Nasdaq fell 3.86%, its biggest one day percent decline since Dec. 9, 2002 when it fell 3.89%.

"Modified Correction"

"This is a hiccup, well, maybe a slightly louder than normal burp," David Sowerby, Chief Market Analyst at Loomis Sayles, told CNBC.com. "I would deem it a modified correction at 5% and an outright correction at 8%. At this point, I think we're on our way to a modified correction."

After trading at sharply lower levels all day, the Dow in midafternoon took a surprise more than 150 point tumble, in just one minute. Its steepest loss was a stunning 545 point decline.

Dow Jones, which calculates the Dow Jones Industrial average, said the steep decline in the Dow was real but that it experienced a delay calculating the average due to heavy trading volume.

Dow Jones said the average lagged behind the market's actual decline and when it switched to a backup system there was rapid catch up. Traders said they believe this coincided with some big derivatives trades.

The NYSE separately said it had its own technical problem, which caused an interruption in trading. It described the technical problem as intermittant and said it was assessing the cause. The NYSE would not elaborate.

"Bubble Brewing"

"We've been in a market that was essentially fueled by home-equity loans and credit card advances and it's been widely speculative and a bubble brewing now for at least six months," Jack Albin, Chief Investment Officer at Harris Private Bank told CNBC.

The S&P 500 had its first five-session losing streak in three years.

"In the first seven weeks of the year, the Dow rose more than 2.5%, but in the last seven days that gain has been wiped out," Kevin Caron, Market Analyst at Ryan Beck, told CNBC.com. "That's a pretty sharp correction by definition. There is potential for more downside near-term, but I still think the S&P ends higher, around 1510, by the end of the year."

China's Shanghai Composite fell nearly 9%, its biggest drop in a decade, amid a mulititude of rumors including that authorities would crack down on speculation. The selling spread to the European markets and continued in the U.S.

"We've got a massive sell off in China, ongoing geopolitical concerns, concerns about subprime mortgages and economic growth," Arthur Hogan, Managing Director at Jefferies, told CNBC.com. "Put it all together, you've got (a market) that has been waiting for a selloff. You never know when you're going to get that catalyst. Looks like we got it today."

All Sectors Hit

Selling was across the board in all of the S&P 500 sectors, with materials leading the decline, off by more than 4%. Decliners outpaced advancing shares by ten to one.

In economic news, existing-home sales rose 3% in January, the largest percentage gain in two years. The Conference Board said consumer confidence rose to a 5-1/2 year high in February, beating forecasts, which were for a decline. However, durable goods orders fell by 7.8% in January, much more than expected.

Treasury prices rallied on the data, sending yields lower.

U.S. Treasurys
% NaN2-Year Note Y... US@?US2YY4.5970.0210.46%
The yield curve, which has inverted rapidly over the last few days, was at 42% recession odds.

"I think the stock market is going to be the forebearer of when we get that recession," Steve Hochberg, Chief Market Strategist at Elliott Wave International, told CNBC. "Usually recessions follow downturns in the market, so we're probably not going to get one right away, but once the market turns to a downward trend, I think the economy will eventually follow."

Shares of Apple Apple Inc (AAPL)
83.93 -4.58 -5.17% NASDAQ

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[AAPL 83.93 -4.58 (-5.17%) ] were off after the company said it will delay its Apple TV device until mid-March.

Federated Department StoresFederated Department Stores Inc (FD)
43.35 -0.85 -1.92% NYSE

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[FD 43.35 -0.85 (-1.92%) ] , parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, said stronger sales at established stores and lower costs resulted in a 5% rise in fourth-quarter earnings. Stripping out costs related to its acquisition of May Department Stores, the retailer reported earnings of $1.66 per share. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.58 per share.

Shares of Nordstrom Nordstrom Inc (JWN)
52.30 -4.30 -7.6% NYSE

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[JWN 52.30 -4.30 (-7.6%) ] fell after the department store chain posted fourth-quarter earnings that trailed analysts' average forecast by a penny.

Freddie MacFreddie Mac (FRE)
63.70 -1.23 -1.89% NYSE

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[FRE 63.70 -1.23 (-1.89%) ] , announced tougher standards saying it will only buy subprime mortgages where the borrower has been qualified at the higher rates to which the loans adjust.

"I think because of a variety of changes in circumstances, in housing prices and in interest rates, some of these products that worked in the past don't work going forward," said Richard Syron, CEO of Freddie Mac, in an interview on CNBC.

The new standards won't take effect until September to avoid squeezing out borrowers who are in the midst of transactions now.

New York light crude futures NYMEX CRUDE OIL FUTURES Front Month (US@CL.1)
60.34 -1.12 -1.82% KRF - US

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[US@CL.1 60.34 -1.12 (-1.82%) ] traded above $61 a barrel ahead of inventory data due out on Wednesday.

Europe, Asia Close Lower

It was the biggest drop in more than a decade for the Shanghai Composite Index, which tumbled 8.8% before closing. That's the biggest single-day decline since February 1997, just after the death of Communist Party elder Deng Xiaoping.

European shares followed the negative sentiment at the open and continued to trade down the entire session with high volumes in what some investors were seeing as a much needed consolidation. Corporate earnings and data releases were still in focus apart from the sell-off.

The FTSE CNBC Global 300 reflected the fall. FTSE CNBC GL 300 IDX (FCNBCG)
5519.73 -24.97 -0.45% FTSE

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[FCNBCG 5519.73 -24.97 (-0.45%) ]

In Spain oil major Repsol reported full-year adjusted net profit down by 12.3% to $4.1 billion, the company’s shares traded down.

Air Liquide lost early gains to trade down by around one percent despite the company setting out new mid-term earnings guidance, reporting higher-than-expected 11.4% growth in its 2006 net profit and announcing a share split and dividend hike. The CAC-40 CAC 40 Index (CAC40-FR)
5588.39 -174.15 -3.02% Paris Stock Exchange

Quote | Chart | News | Profile | Add to Watchlist
[CAC40-FR 5588.39 -174.15 (-3.02%) ] closed sharply lower.

Mining stocks were aggressively sold off in British trade with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo America all trading down significantly. The FTSE 100 FTSE 100 INDEX (FTIND)
6286.10 -148.60 -2.31% FTSE

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[FTIND 6286.10 -148.60 (-2.31%) ] fell in sync with the other indexes.

Germany’s DaimlerChrysler DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX)
67.30 -3.27 -4.63% NYSE

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[DCX 67.30 -3.27 (-4.63%) ] is in the spotlight again as the company’s labor representatives said they would oppose a deal that would give it a stake in General Motors General Motors Corp (GM)
32.16 -1.81 -5.33% NYSE

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[GM 32.16 -1.81 (-5.33%) ] in exchange for giving Chrysler to the U.S. automaker, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. DaimlerChrysler was trading down, while the DAX GERMAN SE XETRA DAX INDEX (DAX-XE)
6819.65 -207.94 -2.96% Frankfurt

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[DAX-XE 6819.65 -207.94 (-2.96%) ] closed lower as well.

contractor · 注册: 2006-01-29

某人家里着火了，并把邻居家也引着了，这家人的亲戚看到大家忙着救火后，高兴地说: 邻居的脉搏第一次跟随咱们而跳动。

kitaro · 注册: 2002-01-21

引用:

最初由 contractor 发布
某人家里着火了，并把邻居家也引着了，这家人的亲戚看到大家忙着救火后，高兴地说: 邻居的脉搏第一次跟随咱们而跳动。

说的好！！！！！

hulaha · 注册: 2004-12-09

引用:

最初由 contractor 发布
某人家里着火了，并把邻居家也引着了，这家人的亲戚看到大家忙着救火后，高兴地说: 邻居的脉搏第一次跟随咱们而跳动。

哈哈哈哈。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。

ert0000 · 注册: 2005-12-07

引用:

最初由 contractor 发布
某人家里着火了，并把邻居家也引着了，这家人的亲戚看到大家忙着救火后，高兴地说: 邻居的脉搏第一次跟随咱们而跳动。

一直看见你和别人争论来争论去.我发现你思维有种定式. 总是往"反中"的话题靠.这全球联跌事件是很值得从不同的角度探讨的.

如果你老板要你写一篇关于这事件的分析,你要是用这样的"邻居失火"的比喻来说的话,你的老板要炒你鱿鱼的.你不是喜好政治经济学吗,我劝你用另外一种客观和辩证的思维来考虑,这样会给你带来很多机会.中国股市以前"崩"了很多次,以前一直没对世界有影响,为什么现在有?而且是9-11后最大的一个震荡?

象你这样认死理式的"反中"是不利与你在那些"智能"机关工作的前景的.

Caohaoying · 注册: 2002-05-18

actually there is 0 correlation between chinese stock market and chinese economics. chinese stock market is like casino. only 40% of the stock is in market. the majority is in the hands of government and state owned company. in other word, everything is under control of the goverment. It fell because giverment wants to discourage people from investing madly. Since it is not a sign of recession of chinese ecnomics, it has nothing to do with the economics globally. The global market fell just because investors "think" there is correlation.

ert0000 · 注册: 2005-12-07

引用:

最初由 Caohaoying 发布
actually there is 0 correlation between chinese stock market and chinese economics. chinese stock market is like casino. only 40% of the stock is in market. the majority is in the hands of government and state owned company. in other word, everything is under control of the goverment. It fell because giverment wants to discourage people from investing madly. Since it is not a sign of recession of chinese ecnomics, it has nothing to do with the economics globally. The global market fell just because investors "think" there is correlation.

Even though I don't agree with your opinion of "0 correlation", your reply shows it is the right way to start a discussion.

All the top economists are arguing on this topic. It worths deep research. It is pointless to link this event 100% to political differences.

一把手 · 注册: 2003-07-25

典型的自卑心理。

SARS把全世界搞得闻风丧胆的时候，怎么没有这样一片文章？

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ert0000 [中级会员] ID: 60692 声望: 380 声望力: 37 帖子: 191 家族: 来自: 金钱: 5,155 注册: 2005-12-07	世界的脉搏第一次跟随中国而跳动中国经济坐世界老二交椅指日可待了. 不是涨跌本身,而是世界跟中国看齐,这具有划时代的地缘政治经济意义. http://www.comefromchina.com/newbbs/...720&forumid=95 http://news.wenxuecity.com/messages/...12-370655.html 中国股市“喷嚏”首次引发世界性“感冒” Local Access打往中国电话卡1.3￠/分种文章来源: 德国之声于 2007-02-27 13:25:02 敬请注意:新闻取自各大新闻媒体，新闻内容并不代表本网立场！中国股市“喷嚏”首次引发世界性“感冒” 德国之声德国之声平心/黑色星期二：中国上海和深圳股市都暴跌了9％左右，达10年来最大跌幅。最有意思的是：以前对世界股市几乎毫无影响的中国股市这次明显引导了全世界的“挤泡运动”，全世界的股市都跟着跌。驻法兰克福的中国银行界一位股票业资深人士对德国之声记者说：正值东南亚金融危机10周年，10年一度股市崩溃是完全可能的。　　沪深两市暴跌　　2月27日，星期二，中国股市“突然放量暴跌”。沪综指从开盘的3048.83点跌至收盘时的2771.79点，下跌268.81点，跌幅达8.84%；深成指早盘开于8620.86点，报收于7790.82点，跌幅达9.29%。　　上海股市有845家下跌，深圳股市有590家下跌。两市共有900多只个股跌停。沪市成交量明显放大，共成交1316.3亿，创出历史天量水平。两市总成交量达2007亿元。德新社说，跌得最惨的是航空公司。　　中国和西方眼中的暴跌原因　　至于暴跌的原因，中国一些分析师认为，主要是因为“基金赎回压力徒然增大，基金公司只有变现已经涨幅巨大的重仓股，来应对赎回潮，基金的杀跌，引发了市场恐慌抛售。”“有消息人士透露，管理层正在考虑加息、证监会主席尚福林可能离任、基金收益征收资本利得税、保险资金被要求减仓等因素促成了本次大跌。” 　　西方的报导中提到“回收利润（相当于‘赎回’）”这个概念。不象中国的报导分析得那么细，而是更多地从根本上说。法兰克福一名股票商说：“投资者们失去了把握，担心一个气泡将在中国破裂。”“气泡”－就是这个关键词。　　是由于“尚福林”还是由于泡沫？　　有气泡吗？这个气泡有多大呢？德国媒体指出，去年中国股值激升了130％。中国的报导说，A股目前处在平均35倍左右的市盈率水平，两倍于世界平均16倍的市盈率。中国工商银行市盈率为28倍，而世界银行业平均市盈率为14倍；中国人寿市盈率为59倍，世界保险业平均市盈率为15倍。　　驻法兰克福的中国银行界股票业资深人士L先生（不愿公布姓名）对德国之声记者说，泡沫是肯定有的，去年年初的时候，他还建议朋友进入中国股市，现在上海都超过3000点了，太高了，他自己都不敢进去了。　　中国喷嚏导致全世界感冒　　西方媒体普遍看到了一个新现象：中国股市的暴跌影响了世界。世界报在线的标题是“中国的股值挫折压抑德国股市”；明镜在线的标题是“中国的股崩让世界交易所摇晃”。　　到周二中午，欧洲综指EuroSTOXX50损失了1.23％；包含瑞士和英国股值的STOXX50跌了1.33%；Euronext 100跌了1.43%；法国的CAC 40跌了1.50%；伦敦的FTSE 100跌了1.23%；德国的Dax也跌了2%; MDax跌了3.7%;技术综指TecDax更跌了5.2%。东京综指Nikkei还算好，“只”跌了0.5%。美国股市开得晚，它今天的走向自然更值得关注。　　不管怎么说，全世界大体上都跌了，而且许多媒体认为震源在中国。但是，到现在为止还没有看到哪个德国媒体强调这个现象的重要意义：中国股市影响世界，这在世界上似乎还是第一次。以前，中国股市怎么大起大落，对世界一点影响也没有。西方也就看个热闹，直到两年前，世界大谈中国股市骗局，一蹶不振，就象谈看一部电影的观感那样。　　法兰克福中国股票专家L先生也证实了记者这个看法。他说：“今天中午我们银行的同事们也都在议论这件事。不光是中国股市，全世界的股市都早已‘过’了，都有泡沫。现在是中国打个喷嚏全世界感冒，轮到中国来带头挤泡沫了。” 　　为什么中国股市动向会影响世界？　　德国之声记者认为，第一个原因是，中国对世界经济的影响力已经发生了从量到质的变化。近30年来，中国经济的高速发展始终惹人注目，引人入胜，但近年来，它已经不允许世界其它国家的人采取“旁观”态度了，因为它已经达到了牵一发而动全世界的地步：量到了一定的程度就自然成了质。明镜在线提到，中国的一举一动还关系到美元的强弱。而这对世界经济和股市自然也是一个大变数。　　第二个原因是，世界市场上的原材料等与中国经济的冷或热息息相关。明镜在线举了个明显的例子：德国Dax指数中的蒂森克虏伯集团股值今天跌了5％。一个股票商就此说：“假如中国经济冷却，自然会把钢价往下压。”不光是钢材，许多原材料都是依赖中国的高速发展、高度需求生存的。　　第三个原因是，中国股票和股市已经处在国际化进程中了。中国银行保险业在国外上市取得了轰动效应；许多外国基金去中国；不少西方企业参股中国上市公司。不知不觉间，中国股市忽然跟国际接起来了，再也不是完全孤立的卡西诺（赌场）了。　　问题严重吗？　　L先生提醒道：正好10年前，1997年，发生了东南亚金融危机。10年来一次（大危机），完全是可能的。　　10年前的东南亚金融危机还只是一个地区性危机。当时，中国没有发生问题也是危机没有扩大的原因之一。但即使那时候中国怎么样了，对世界的影响也远不如今天这么大。现在，全世界经济正在景气起来。如果中国经济忽然出了问题，冷却下来，全世界就不光是面临股市危机的问题了。格林斯潘昨天还说，美国经济今年底将进入衰退。如果他是今天演讲，他也许会把这个预言再提前一大段时间。　　不过，L先生认为，中国经济不会出太大问题的。因为，尽管中国政府说不干涉，但真要出问题，中国政府还是会采取措施的，包括在挽救股市方面。因此，他估计中国股市虽然不可能再出现象去年那样的疯涨，“不落就不错了”，但也不会跌得“连家都不认得了。” http://www.cnbc.com/id/17351516 Stocks Dive in Worst Selloff in Four Years on Fears of Global Slowdown Topics:Economy (U.S.) \| Economy (Global) \| Market Outlook \| Currencies \| The Bond Report \| Stock Market Sectors:Oil & GasBy CNBC.com \| 27 Feb 2007 \| 07:13 PMFont size: Wall Street took its worst beating in four years, as a selloff in the Chinese stock market triggered a global stock selling spree and raised fears of a slowdown in the world economy. "Asia sneezed and we all picked up a global chill," Frederic Dickson, Chief Market Strategist at D.A. Davidson, told CNBC.com. "We're not going to go off of the ledge but tighten up the seatbelts a notch or two because it could be a little bumpy in the next few days. There's still a tremendous cushion of cash out there with most investors waiting for a pullback to put some money to work. We'll see if they come in." Major U.S. Indexes DOW JONES IND... .DJIA12216.24-416.02-3.29% 740,990,000NASDAQ NMS CO... .NCOMP2407.86-96.66-3.86% 1,526,191,900S&P 500 INDEX .SPX1399.04-50.33-3.47% NaN The Dow's 416-point drop was its worst point decline since Sept. 17, 2001, the first trading day after the Sep. 11 disaster. On that day, the Dow dropped 684 points. Tuesday's 3.29% drop was the worst percent decline since March 24, 2003. The S&P 500 lost 3.5%, its worst loss since the day. The Nasdaq fell 3.86%, its biggest one day percent decline since Dec. 9, 2002 when it fell 3.89%. "Modified Correction" "This is a hiccup, well, maybe a slightly louder than normal burp," David Sowerby, Chief Market Analyst at Loomis Sayles, told CNBC.com. "I would deem it a modified correction at 5% and an outright correction at 8%. At this point, I think we're on our way to a modified correction." After trading at sharply lower levels all day, the Dow in midafternoon took a surprise more than 150 point tumble, in just one minute. Its steepest loss was a stunning 545 point decline. Dow Jones, which calculates the Dow Jones Industrial average, said the steep decline in the Dow was real but that it experienced a delay calculating the average due to heavy trading volume. Dow Jones said the average lagged behind the market's actual decline and when it switched to a backup system there was rapid catch up. Traders said they believe this coincided with some big derivatives trades. The NYSE separately said it had its own technical problem, which caused an interruption in trading. It described the technical problem as intermittant and said it was assessing the cause. The NYSE would not elaborate. "Bubble Brewing" "We've been in a market that was essentially fueled by home-equity loans and credit card advances and it's been widely speculative and a bubble brewing now for at least six months," Jack Albin, Chief Investment Officer at Harris Private Bank told CNBC. The S&P 500 had its first five-session losing streak in three years. "In the first seven weeks of the year, the Dow rose more than 2.5%, but in the last seven days that gain has been wiped out," Kevin Caron, Market Analyst at Ryan Beck, told CNBC.com. "That's a pretty sharp correction by definition. There is potential for more downside near-term, but I still think the S&P ends higher, around 1510, by the end of the year." China's Shanghai Composite fell nearly 9%, its biggest drop in a decade, amid a mulititude of rumors including that authorities would crack down on speculation. The selling spread to the European markets and continued in the U.S. "We've got a massive sell off in China, ongoing geopolitical concerns, concerns about subprime mortgages and economic growth," Arthur Hogan, Managing Director at Jefferies, told CNBC.com. "Put it all together, you've got (a market) that has been waiting for a selloff. You never know when you're going to get that catalyst. Looks like we got it today." All Sectors Hit Selling was across the board in all of the S&P 500 sectors, with materials leading the decline, off by more than 4%. Decliners outpaced advancing shares by ten to one. In economic news, existing-home sales rose 3% in January, the largest percentage gain in two years. The Conference Board said consumer confidence rose to a 5-1/2 year high in February, beating forecasts, which were for a decline. However, durable goods orders fell by 7.8% in January, much more than expected. Treasury prices rallied on the data, sending yields lower. U.S. Treasurys % NaN2-Year Note Y... US@?US2YY4.5970.0210.46% The yield curve, which has inverted rapidly over the last few days, was at 42% recession odds. "I think the stock market is going to be the forebearer of when we get that recession," Steve Hochberg, Chief Market Strategist at Elliott Wave International, told CNBC. "Usually recessions follow downturns in the market, so we're probably not going to get one right away, but once the market turns to a downward trend, I think the economy will eventually follow." Shares of Apple Apple Inc (AAPL) 83.93 -4.58 -5.17% NASDAQ Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [AAPL 83.93 -4.58 (-5.17%) ] were off after the company said it will delay its Apple TV device until mid-March. Federated Department StoresFederated Department Stores Inc (FD) 43.35 -0.85 -1.92% NYSE Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [FD 43.35 -0.85 (-1.92%) ] , parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's, said stronger sales at established stores and lower costs resulted in a 5% rise in fourth-quarter earnings. Stripping out costs related to its acquisition of May Department Stores, the retailer reported earnings of $1.66 per share. Analysts were expecting earnings of $1.58 per share. Shares of Nordstrom Nordstrom Inc (JWN) 52.30 -4.30 -7.6% NYSE Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [JWN 52.30 -4.30 (-7.6%) ] fell after the department store chain posted fourth-quarter earnings that trailed analysts' average forecast by a penny. Freddie MacFreddie Mac (FRE) 63.70 -1.23 -1.89% NYSE Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [FRE 63.70 -1.23 (-1.89%) ] , announced tougher standards saying it will only buy subprime mortgages where the borrower has been qualified at the higher rates to which the loans adjust. "I think because of a variety of changes in circumstances, in housing prices and in interest rates, some of these products that worked in the past don't work going forward," said Richard Syron, CEO of Freddie Mac, in an interview on CNBC. The new standards won't take effect until September to avoid squeezing out borrowers who are in the midst of transactions now. New York light crude futures NYMEX CRUDE OIL FUTURES Front Month (US@CL.1) 60.34 -1.12 -1.82% KRF - US Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [US@CL.1 60.34 -1.12 (-1.82%) ] traded above $61 a barrel ahead of inventory data due out on Wednesday. Europe, Asia Close Lower It was the biggest drop in more than a decade for the Shanghai Composite Index, which tumbled 8.8% before closing. That's the biggest single-day decline since February 1997, just after the death of Communist Party elder Deng Xiaoping. European shares followed the negative sentiment at the open and continued to trade down the entire session with high volumes in what some investors were seeing as a much needed consolidation. Corporate earnings and data releases were still in focus apart from the sell-off. The FTSE CNBC Global 300 reflected the fall. FTSE CNBC GL 300 IDX (FCNBCG) 5519.73 -24.97 -0.45% FTSE Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [FCNBCG 5519.73 -24.97 (-0.45%) ] In Spain oil major Repsol reported full-year adjusted net profit down by 12.3% to $4.1 billion, the company’s shares traded down. Air Liquide lost early gains to trade down by around one percent despite the company setting out new mid-term earnings guidance, reporting higher-than-expected 11.4% growth in its 2006 net profit and announcing a share split and dividend hike. The CAC-40 CAC 40 Index (CAC40-FR) 5588.39 -174.15 -3.02% Paris Stock Exchange Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [CAC40-FR 5588.39 -174.15 (-3.02%) ] closed sharply lower. Mining stocks were aggressively sold off in British trade with BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Anglo America all trading down significantly. The FTSE 100 FTSE 100 INDEX (FTIND) 6286.10 -148.60 -2.31% FTSE Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [FTIND 6286.10 -148.60 (-2.31%) ] fell in sync with the other indexes. Germany’s DaimlerChrysler DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX) 67.30 -3.27 -4.63% NYSE Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [DCX 67.30 -3.27 (-4.63%) ] is in the spotlight again as the company’s labor representatives said they would oppose a deal that would give it a stake in General Motors General Motors Corp (GM) 32.16 -1.81 -5.33% NYSE Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [GM 32.16 -1.81 (-5.33%) ] in exchange for giving Chrysler to the U.S. automaker, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter. DaimlerChrysler was trading down, while the DAX GERMAN SE XETRA DAX INDEX (DAX-XE) 6819.65 -207.94 -2.96% Frankfurt Quote \| Chart \| News \| Profile \| Add to Watchlist [DAX-XE 6819.65 -207.94 (-2.96%) ] closed lower as well.

	2007-02-27, 22:03 #1

contractor [封禁用户] ID: 64304 声望: -2208 声望力: 0 帖子: 5,328 家族: 来自: 金钱: 15,698 注册: 2006-01-29	某人家里着火了，并把邻居家也引着了，这家人的亲戚看到大家忙着救火后，高兴地说: 邻居的脉搏第一次跟随咱们而跳动。

	2007-02-28, 15:42 #2

Caohaoying [白银长老] ID: 1538 声望: 37 声望力: 77 帖子: 1,652 家族: 来自: 金钱: 2,951 注册: 2002-05-18	actually there is 0 correlation between chinese stock market and chinese economics. chinese stock market is like casino. only 40% of the stock is in market. the majority is in the hands of government and state owned company. in other word, everything is under control of the goverment. It fell because giverment wants to discourage people from investing madly. Since it is not a sign of recession of chinese ecnomics, it has nothing to do with the economics globally. The global market fell just because investors "think" there is correlation.

	2007-02-28, 16:46 #6

一把手 [反腐败局局长] ID: 10136 声望: 629 声望力: 69 帖子: 2,592 家族: 来自: 金钱: 7,320 注册: 2003-07-25	典型的自卑心理。 SARS把全世界搞得闻风丧胆的时候，怎么没有这样一片文章？

	2007-02-28, 17:26 #8