[有去无回]

Bank of Canada cuts rates






TERRY WEBER
Globe and Mail Update



The Bank of Canada delivered its third interest rate cut of the year Tuesday but also broadly hinted that the end of the easing cycle may be at hand, saying the risks to the nation's economy "now appear balanced."

Tuesday's quarter percentage point reduction leaves the central bank's trendsetting target for the overnight rate at 2 per cent.

That rate is the central bank's key monetary policy tool. It tells major financial institutions the average interest rate that the Bank of Canada wants them to charge each other on overnight loans.

A change in that rate typically triggers a corresponding move by major banks on their prime lending rates. Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia were the first out of the gate Tuesday, cutting their prime rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75 per cent. Other banks quickly followed suit.

The central bank last cut rates on March 2 and Jan. 20.

But in Tuesday's accompanying statement, the bank suggested the latest move may be the last.

The bank's outlook remains unchanged from January, when it said it expects the economy to return to its production potential by the third quarter of next year, while core inflation should move back to the mid-point of its 1-to-3 per cent target by the end of 2005.

"Against this backdrop, the bank decided to lower the target for the overnight rate by a further quarter percentage point," the bank said Tuesday.

"The risks to the outlook now appear balanced."

The implication of that statement, analysts said, was clear.

"This is a rather transparent statement," Toronto-Dominion Bank senior economist Marc L轹esque told globeandmail.com.

"It's a very strong signal that they're not going to be easing further, as long as the economic landscape unfolds in line with their expectations. In other words, barring a disaster, you're probably not going to see the Bank of Canada cutting in June."

The markets had fully priced in the latest rate reduction, but at least some economists had remained unconvinced.

Those arguing against further rate reductions had cited the positive influence of a strong U.S. economy as a key factor. Earlier Tuesday, the U.S. government reported that March retail sales in that country rose by a much stronger than expected 1.8 per cent, offering another sign of economic strength south of the border.

Many also suggested recent economic reports, which appeared disappointing, weren't nearly as bad below the surface.

However, Tuesday's decision also comes as the broader Canadian economy appears to be growing well below the central bank's earlier forecasts.

In January, the economy shrank by 0.1 per cent. Even if it grows by 0.2 per cent in the two subsequent month, the first-quarter's overall annual growth rate would be around 2 per cent. The Bank of Canada had been expecting economic growth closer to 3 per cent in the quarter.

Later this week, the central bank releases its latest monetary policy report, which will offer a full picture of how it sees growth shaping up in the near future.

Outlining its reasons for Tuesday's move, the bank cited the Canadian economy's continued adjustment to developments in the global economy.

"These include stronger world demand, higher commodity prices, the realignment of world currencies, including the Canadian dollar, and the intensified competition, together with the new trading opportunities, coming from emerging-market economies," the bank said.

"These developments require shifts in activity among sectors and create a need for adjustments by many businesses."

A third rate cut, the bank said, helps those adjustments by "supporting aggregate demand, with the goal of keeping the economy near its full potential and inflation on target."

The Canadian dollar, which had dropped half a cent Monday in anticipation of another rate cut, was relatively steady Tuesday.

The loonie closed at 74.96 cents (U.S.), up 0.09 of a cent from Monday's closing price.

With further rate cuts now likely off the table, analysts were busy Tuesday looking ahead to the timing of the first interest rate hike.

Although some suggested that an increase late this year wasn't out of the question, most suggested the first move higher will likely be put off until early next year.

"We believed they will wait until 2005," Merrill Lynch economist Robert Spector said.

"Slack will disappear only slowly based on our forecast for 2.6 per cent [economic] growth this year and inflation is likely to remain below the 2-per-cent target until late 2005."

The Bank of Canada's next fixed-date policy announcement is due June 8.

[oread]

BMO降了吗？

[有去无回]

prime都跟着降了。

[oread]

答非所问啊你！mortgage prime降了吗？

[有去无回]

最初由 渐渐 发布
答非所问啊你！mortgage prime降了吗？

不好好读报学习

A change in that rate typically triggers a corresponding move by major banks on their prime lending rates. Royal Bank of Canada and Bank of Nova Scotia were the first out of the gate Tuesday, cutting their prime rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75 per cent. Other banks quickly followed suit.

浮动利率的Mortgage，或者说Better/Lower than prime mortage参照物就是这个prime lending rates,各大银行肯定都是一样的prime，没有别的prime了

再过两天，BMO就又要给你来信了

[有去无回]

不过，好象真要瞄着到下半年锁定个五年七年的定息计划了吧。

[CFB]

加拿大中央银行昨（13）日降低银行基本利率 0.25 个百分点，降至罕有的 2.0% 超低水准。金融业者纷纷表示，当前这个利率创新低的环境，是房屋贷款者重新规划贷款的最好时机。据估计，超过三成的房贷者能从重新办理房贷计划中获利，只是很多人根本不知道有这么一个难得的机会。

世界日报报道， 加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）世界市场投资部经济学家泰尔（Benjamin Tal）稍早前即已指出，即使提早终止原来的房贷合同将导致房贷者需要支付银行罚金，仍有 25% 左右的房贷者可以藉重办贷款减少自己的房贷支出。而采用浮动利率的借贷者将最快受益，因为他们的贷款利率一般就是基本借贷利率再减去 0.75 个百分点。

泰尔说，因为目前利率确实非常低，因此重新规划房贷者可以选择浮动利率。不过浮动利率也有风险，将随着银行基本利率的调高而随之升高。

帝国商业银行世界市场投资部的房贷客户中，有 20% 采用浮动利率，而在 2000 年，采用浮动利率的仅有 8%。浮动利率方式目前被普遍看作是一种比较精明的方式，不过人们对这种房贷计划锁定五年的做法仍有争议。

不过，如果房贷者想趁着这个利率低的机会增加自己的房贷金额，仍需要仔细考虑。泰尔说，他们的客户中，约有三成客户趁机增加了贷款额度。很难说多贷款是好是坏，一切取决于借贷者拿这笔贷款作何种投资。大约有四分之一增加房贷者拿多出的贷款去支付利率更高的债务，如信用卡等，那么这就是比较聪明的做法。

[Xiaomimi]

最初由 丫丫 发布
不过，好象真要瞄着到下半年锁定个五年七年的定息计划了吧。

Don't wait till second half, do it NOW !

Central bank only control short term rate, long term is determined by bond market. Bond price can and will go down in a hurry.

[oread]

不着急，先观望一段。

最初由 丫丫 发布
不过，好象真要瞄着到下半年锁定个五年七年的定息计划了吧。

[有去无回]

最初由 渐渐 发布
不着急，先观望一段。

俺昨天查了一下，俺家到911才‘解套’
急也没用

[oread]

在哪查的？

[有去无回]

最初由 渐渐 发布
在哪查的？

就是俺转mortgage手续完成的日期。----合同上说，一年以后才可以转别的plan.

[胡说之]

最初由 丫丫 发布

俺昨天查了一下，俺家到911才‘解套’
急也没用

我们难道是同一天去的BMO?我咋没看见你?尤记当年去银行的路上,在收音机里听到大楼被撞.

[有去无回]

最初由 胡说之 发布


我们难道是同一天去的BMO?我咋没看见你?尤记当年去银行的路上,在收音机里听到大楼被撞.

俺家是去年911转到BMO的
因为有cashback和头三个月的低息,一年之内改计划要吐出不少好处来，所以基本就是被套住了
俺期望值不是特别高，到今年911咱能拿个5年定息5.3，俺就没白折腾

[小傻]

最初由 丫丫 发布

:...
俺期望值不是特别高，到今年911咱能拿个5年定息5.3，俺就没白折腾

志向太低了吧 俺家现在五年fixed的是4.55，这俺lp还整天嚷嚷着要换呢