[住在加乡]

如果你是2000年左右来渥太华的朋友，会发现今年和2000年一样，很多周围的人都在看房，买房。
据说北美人换房子的周期平均是7年，看来还挺准。
不同的是七年前，都是新移民买第一个房子，现在大家忙活的是换大房子，或买出租房作为投资。

我的预测是未来两年升值最大是2600尺以上的single house, 其次是小一些的single, townhouse 因为供过于求，在一段时间内价格将持平或稍降，然后因为single价格大幅度上涨也跟着涨。
。

声明，本人不从事房地产业，研究房市纯属个人爱好，如有误导，概不负责。

[住在加乡]

What do you think

[mingong]

非常精确的预测。好奇地问一下， 你一年前买房了吗？

[小傻]

作者: 住在加乡

What do you think

Will you be our consultant when we purchase the next house?

[kentridge]

look at how many percent ppl can afford this kind of house in Ottawa.

abt only 10% can go up to 300K above and only 3 % can afford 400K. I bet it is easy to buy and hard to sell for these ppl

townhouse will be easy for entry level and probably always hot

[2000Windows]

I fully agree with LZ.

Most of the new imigrants came in 2000 settled down in Ottawa will eventually look for upgrade their homes in the next couple of years.

[forward]

I believe we should also look at demographic factors in next 5 to 10 years.

The biggest change is retiring baby boomers and they are looking for downsizing instead of upgrading. This means the supply side will put consistent pressure in Ottawa markets, especially for single houses with 2600+ square ft.

Second, Gatineau market is also factor here. As long as the gap is increasing, Gatineau will attract bargain hunters from Ottawa. Remember most people will be living in big house for about 15 years when they raise family and people opt for small houses due to lower taxes and easy maintenance. Therefore, in the timeframe of 15 years or so, the price gap will decide if there is any financial benefit. Sure living in Quebec pays higher tax, but it also means lower property tax, utility bills and very cheap daycares.

On the other sides, Ottawa is government town and it is unlikely to see significant drop as happened in US markets. New immigrant are less likely settle down here compared to 2000. The tide has been changed.

I think the point is clear from above. The Ottawa house price is at peak range. The room of future increase is from cost adjustment instead of from the dynamics of supply/demand. If people are looking for upgrade, it is better to buy early since you always pay more in future. But if you think investment, multiple units and smaller house will offer better return and easy sell.

Welcome more discussion.

[luvmonbora]

OFF topic

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To those who are thinking of moving…