花袜子变可怜虫?

卖保险的,代课老师,这些职业都没有你们的高大上吗?观念改一改吧:D
 
卖保险,代课老师都是高大上的职业。但是和管理国家毛线关系都没有。
当吗工还要实习好几期,当总理就直接上岗,这理真没法说 :)

卖保险的,代课老师,这些职业都没有你们的高大上吗?观念改一改吧:D
 
卖保险,代课老师都是高大上的职业。但是和管理国家毛线关系都没有。
当吗工还要实习好几期,当总理就直接上岗,这理真没法说 :)
完全明白你的意思:D
 
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大选临近,你说说几个党领哪个好点儿,能领军上台。

我也是这观点
 
卖保险,代课老师都是高大上的职业。但是和管理国家毛线关系都没有。
当吗工还要实习好几期,当总理就直接上岗,这理真没法说 :)
这道理有法说,一语道破当前直选民主的最大弊端。阿猫阿狗的,只要能够忽悠大部分选民就能当总统,总理。而不需承认,大部分选民是很容易被愚弄的。
 
买保险的口才要比代课老师没事儿猪叫似的嗯嗯嗯好...
 
老师授业解惑。
卖保险靠忽悠。
 
老师授业解惑。
卖保险靠忽悠。
是老师就当个好老师,可惜碰到不少老师授不好业解不了惑。卖保险的就好好卖保险,偏自封个总裁、会长之类的,明摆着就是在诓人。
 
专制不是好东西,民主未必是好东西。希特勒、墨索里尼都是靠民主上台的。最伟大的两个人耶稣、苏格拉底都死于民主。土豆也是靠民主上台的,结果带来的是大麻、来路不明的难民、大批越境者、经济凋敝、治安恶化。
 
专制不是好东西,民主未必是好东西。希特勒、墨索里尼都是靠民主上台的。最伟大的两个人耶稣、苏格拉底都死于民主。土豆也是靠民主上台的,结果带来的是大麻、来路不明的难民、大批越境者、经济凋敝、治安恶化。
结论,政治本身就不是好东西。
 
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There was plenty of fresh data to analyze this week as we stand only six weeks away from the 43rd federal general election, so let’s recap the past week of polling:
  • Last week, Abacus Data unveiled its latest federal numbers. The Conservatives (34 per cent) and Liberals (33 per cent) remain tied on top of voting intentions nationally, but once again the regional breakdowns remain in favour of the Liberals: Abacus measures a 4-point lead in Ontario and 12-point lead in Quebec for the LPC. Out west, the Conservatives dominate Alberta by 37 points and the Prairies by 24 points. See Abacus’ full report here.
  • Nanos Research‘s weekly polls have not been reported on lately because they are behind a subscription paywall (to which you may subscribe here). But Nik Nanos himself was on CTV News this week with Don Martin and showed its latest results: Liberals (35 per cent) lead nationally by four points over the Conservatives (31 per cent).
  • On Saturday night, Campaign Research released its newest data: Unsurprisingly, Campaign also has the LPC and CPC tied nationally (at 34 per cent apiece), but its regional numbers differ from Abacus or Léger, especially in Ontario where Campaign has the Liberals and Conservatives tied in the province at 36 per cent. You may find Campaign Research report here.
  • Finally, on Monday Léger published the second part of its last federal poll which focused on Quebec (which had a considerable sample size of 1,000 respondents in Quebec). The poll showed the Liberals leading comfortably in the Montreal metropolitan area (19 points over the Bloc) and the Conservatives ahead in the Quebec City region. Léger’s complete report can be found here.
As for the NDP, the latest waves of polls showed the party is going through hard times, but both Nanos (16 per cent) and Abacus Data (17 per cent) measure NDP support somewhat higher than the recent average. Strangely, it’s the NDP level of support on which Canadian pollsters can’t seem to agree on lately. While EKOS’ 7 per cent from two weeks ago seems to have been an outlier, polls in the field in August alone have measured the NDP as low as 11 per cent and as high as 17 per cent.

Here are the popular vote projections with 95 per cent confidence intervals compared to last week’s national polls:



[NR: Nanos Research; AD: Abacus Data; CR: Campaign Research.]

The Conservatives and Liberals remain essentially tied on top of voting intentions with 34 per cent apiece. As we will see below, due to the high concentration of Conservative support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, a tied national vote gives a slight edge to the Liberals seat-wise.

The NDP’s national average stands at 13.5 per cent. The Greens remain stable at 10.4 per cent. Maxime Bernier’s PPC is averaging 2.9 per cent support.

In Quebec, the Bloc québécois gathers 19 per cent of support—a level similar to its 2015 result.

Here are the seat projections in Canada:



Over the course of 250,000 general election simulations, the Liberal Party wins an average of 165 seats, five seats short of a majority, and 24 seats above the Conservative average of 141 seats.

However, when we analyze the seat projection more closely by breaking down the safe, likely, leaning and toss up projected seats per party, we discover that the Liberal lead is tenuous at best:



The Liberals are projected leading in 63 districts that are labelled either “leaning” or “toss up”, by far more than any other party. In Quebec, a modest two-to-three point swing to the Bloc or the Conservatives could flip several rural seats in the province. (Léger measured the Liberals at only 29 per cent in Quebec outside of Montreal and Quebec City.) In Ontario, among the 30 GTA districts, more than half are projected leaning or toss ups, including several with the Liberals as current favourites. A moderate slip in the region could also hurt the Liberals and return the edge to the Conservatives.

Nevertheless, with the data that is currently available, the 338Canada electoral model measures that the Liberals are two-to-one favourite to win the most seats:



Although it may appear that the Liberals are hands on favourite, consider for a moment what the odds above indicate: Imagine you roll a dice. Numbers one through four mean the Liberals win the most seats. A five or a six means the Conservatives win. That’s how close this race is as of this writing.

(This is the closest race I have covered so far: By comparison, Ford’s Progressive Conservatives and Legault’s CAQ were about 9-to-1 favourites according the same basic electoral model last year. Last April in Alberta, Jason Kenney’s United Conservatives were 25-to-1 favourites.)

With still six weeks to go before Canadians head to the voting booths, the Liberals should not feel any comfort with these numbers. A few scattered points here and there could dramatically alter the seat projection. A single slip-up or mistake could make of break their re-election hopes.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ot...a-projection-the-liberals-uncomfortable-lead/
 
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