华尔街日报：美国正在输掉史上最大经济战争

[GRAND KING]

华尔街日报：http://cn.wsj.com/gb/20130605/opn072057.asp
2013年 06月 05日 07:19

　　美国是一个喜欢打退堂鼓的国家。我们在放弃，在投降，在割爱。是的，在输掉比赛，在荒废我们作为世界超级大国的未来。我们被迫离开经济竞技场，而迫使我们离开的不是外面的敌人，而是我们自己的国会拒绝玩创造就业的经济游戏。

　　在世界历史上最大规模的经济战争中，我们成了自己最要命的敌人。亚洲可是求之不得！

　　我们安于现状的国会、不肯妥协的政客、控制着华盛顿且执迷于财政紧缩的卢德派，正在扼杀美国的经济增长，扼杀我们的超级大国地位，扼杀我们的未来……是的，亚洲人可是求之不得。

　　把我们骗进三万亿美元伊拉克战争的老武士（比如参议员约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain)）和新保守派依旧相信，在基础设施垮塌、教育系统衰败、就业和利润流向国外养肥外国经济之际，通过侵略、庞大军队、战舰和五角大楼一年花上5000亿，我们将会赢得未来。

　　到2040年，中国的GDP将占世界的40%，美国的GDP将萎缩至14%

　　忘掉战争、取下眼罩吧。笨蛋，关键是经济，是增加就业，而不是增加战争债务。不幸的是，美国目光短浅的右翼像专事破坏的忍者一样，无意中帮助、鼓励了其他国家的经济增长。中国继续为其未来投资，创造就业、修建基础设施、资助教育和科技，其GDP突飞猛进。

　　而美国经济继续向零增长方向下滑，GDP增长速度降至1%并维持一代人的时间。

　　没错，亚洲正远远地跑在我们前面，赢得这场经济战争。到2015年，中国的GDP将超过美国。而由于掌管国会的那些目光短浅的卢德派，我们一如既往地拒绝竞争。几年前《外交政策》(Foreign Policy)杂志刊登了诺贝尔经济学奖得主、知名中国问题学者罗伯特•福格尔(Robert W. Fogel)撰写的一篇特稿，文章标题讲明了即将发生的情况：“$123,000,000,000,000：为什么说中国经济总量到2040年将增至123万亿美元”。

　　中国是新的经济超级大国，因为它正在偷师我们资本主义最好的方面，使之与政府规划混合，快马加鞭地去夺取世界头号大国的奖杯。而就在他们做规划的时候，我们华盛顿内部的破坏者却在把这场经济战争的主动权拱手让给中国。以下是福格尔在《外交政策》里面的预测，令人不安：

　　“2040年，中国经济总量将达到123万亿美元，接近2000年整个世界经济产值的三倍。随着中国从2000年的一个穷国变成2040年的一个超富国家，中国人均收入将达到8.5万美元，超过欧盟人均收入预测值的两倍，也远远高于印度和日本的预测值。”

　　福格尔说，30年过后，美国的人均财富可能会更高，但中国在世界GDP中的份额（40%）将使美国（14%）和欧盟（5%）相形见绌。

　　美国戴着眼罩，亚洲不可阻挡，美国输掉战争

　　看到华盛顿的盲目愚蠢，看到我们正在如何破坏自己的经济未来，亚洲人一定是在放声大笑。他们觉得美国自恋、自私，且完全不知道自己是多么善于自毁。更严重的是，亚洲人不仅是知道我们的愚蠢，而且也在充分地利用我们的愚蠢。

　　下面说说前不久一位亚洲领导人是怎样挑战我们的政客的。下文摘自新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)李光耀公共政策学院(Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy)院长马凯硕(Kishore Mahbubani)在《评论汇编》(Project Syndicate)撰写的专栏文章《美国对现实视而不见》(America's Blinders)。马凯硕也是《大汇合：亚洲、西方及世界大同的逻辑》(The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World)一书的作者。

　　“想象不可想象之事的时候已经到来：美国主导国际事务的时代很可能即将走到尽头。随着那一时刻越来越近，最主要的问题将是美国准备得怎么样了。”

　　提醒：“过去几十年亚洲的崛起不仅是一段经济高速增长的历程，也是一个地区实现复兴、人心重新开放、其观点焕然一新的历程。亚洲在朝着恢复昔日世界经济中心地位的方向前进，势不可当。”

　　马凯硕说，政治家“有责任让他们所在的社会为即将到来的全球形势变化做好准备，但太多的美国领导人都在逃避这种责任”。然后他说起他在2012年瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)上主持的一场讨论会。讨论会题目是“美国国力的未来”，听众中有两名美国参议员、一名众议员、一名副国家安全顾问。

　　在他们眼中，美国国力的未来如何？“他们一如所料地宣称，美国仍将是世界上最强大的国家。当问到美国是否已为成为世界第二大经济体做好准备时，他们一言未发。”

　　但他们无法讲出真相。为什么？“对于美国政治家来说，即便是想想美国成为‘老二’的可能性，也等于是职业上的自杀。”

　　然后马凯硕揭示了美国到底有多盲目：和盲目的政治家不一样的是，所有知识分子“都有想象不可想象之事、言说不可言说之事……思考一切可能（哪怕是令人不快的可能）、让大众为可能的变动做好准备的特殊义务。真诚讨论不受欢迎的观点，是开放社会的关键特征”。

　　然而美国的知识分子也是盲目的。他举了两个例子：外交关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)主席理查德•哈斯(Richard Haass)前不久写道，我们“可能已经进入又一个美国世纪的第二个10年”。经济战略研究所(Economic Strategy Institute)所长克莱德•普雷斯托维茨(Clyde Prestowitz)表示，“本世纪很可能作为又一个美国世纪而结束。”马凯硕说，如果事实证明他们的预测是准确的，那么“就不需要做什么准备了”。

　　美国人没有为亚洲成为世界超级力量做好准备

　　但正如福格尔预测，“如果世界重心向亚洲转移，美国人将可悲地没有做好准备。”他提醒说：“很多美国人依旧令人震惊地不知道世界其他地区、特别是亚洲已经取得了多大的进步。”

　　多数美国人对“一个简单的、数学上的事实”视而不见。“以世界3%的人口，美国无法继续支配世界其他地区，因为亚洲人以其占世界60%的人口，已经不再落后于人。”

　　可惜美国领导人依旧盲目，拒绝倾听，特别是我们新保守派的战争爱好者们。亚洲人觉得，美国人沉迷于幻想，以为自己是“黑暗动荡世界里的一盏孤灯”。而由于哈斯和普雷斯托维茨这样的领袖也相信这样的幻觉，那就不要质疑我们的幻想了。民众一无所知，毫无防备。

　　马凯硕试图把话说得轻一些：“亚洲的崛起其实不是坏消息。”他说，亚洲人“谋求的不是支配西方，而是效仿西方。他们希望构筑强大而充满活力的中产阶级，实现西方长久享有的那种和平、稳定、繁荣”。

　　醒醒吧，美国：亚洲的规模和实力很快就会达到我们的五倍

　　亚洲的转变正在加速，将使它从“经济强盛力量升级为国际领导力量。中国在很多方面仍然是一个封闭的社会，却有着开放的心态，美国是一个开放社会，却有着封闭的心态……亚洲中产阶级势将从今天的五亿人扩大到2020年的17.5亿人”。只有四亿人的美国，再也不能“继续长时间回避国际经济的新现实”。

　　现在你已经了解到亚洲一位精神领袖的想法了，这位亚洲重要大学的领导认为整个世界势将“经历人类历史上最剧烈的权力转换之一”，但“要为这种转变做好准备，美国人必须抛弃根深蒂固的观念和成见……解放不可想象的想法……想象不可想象之事”，不要再否认美国支配世界事务的局面行将结束。

　　美国必须清醒过来认清这样的事实：随着中国经济的爆发式发展，到2040年中国经济总量将达到美国的三倍，我们将很快落后于亚洲屈居第二。趁着麦凯恩的新保守派和茶党们还没有把华盛顿推向一场真正的战争，赶快醒过来。

本文译自 MarketWatch

 

[GRAND KING]

U.S. losing economic war and Asia loves it
Commentary: America is its own worst enemy, a quitter
MarketWatch http://www.marketwatch.com/story/america-the-quitter-getting-whipped-by-china-2013-06-01
By Paul B. Farrell

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — America is a quitter. We’re giving up, surrendering, forfeiting. Yes, throwing the game. Throwing away our future as the world’s superpower. We’re forced to walk off the economic playing field. Not by outside enemies, by our own Congress refusing to play a job-creating economic game.

We are our own worst enemy in the biggest economic war in world history. And Asia loves it!

Our do-nothing Congress, our no-compromise politicians and our austerity-obsessed Luddites controlling Washington are killing America’s economic growth, killing our superpower role, killing our future ... and, yes, Asians love it.

Old warriors like Sen. John McCain plus the neocons who conned us into the $3 trillion Iraq War still believe the future will be won by aggression, big armies, battleships and a Pentagon spending a half trillion a year ... while our infrastructure crumbles, our educational system decays, and jobs and profits go overseas fattening foreign economies.

By 2040, China’s GDP is 40% of world, America’s GDP shrinks to 14%

Forget war, take off the blinders. It’s “the economy, stupid,” more jobs, not more war debt. Unfortunately, America’s myopic right wing acts like ninja saboteurs, unwittingly aiding and abetting growth in foreign nations. China keeps investing in its future, creating jobs, building infrastructure, funding education and technology and its GDP soars.

And America keeps sliding into a no-growth economy, to 1% GDP growth in a generation.

Yes, Asia is speeding way ahead of us, winning the economic war. By 2015 China’s GDP will overtake America’s. And still we refuse to compete, thanks to the myopic Luddites running Congress. A few years ago the headline of a Foreign Policy feature by Nobel economist Robert W. Fogel, a renown China scholar, made clear what’s ahead: “$123,000,000,000,000: Why China’s Economy Will Grow to $123 Trillion by 2040.”

China is the new economic superpower because it is stealing the best of our capitalism, mixing it with government planning, racing to win the prize as the No. 1 global power. And while they’re planning, our saboteurs inside Washington are surrendering the economic war to China. Here’s Fogel’s disturbing forecast in Foreign Policy:

“In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China’s per-capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan as China moves “from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040.”

America’s per-capita wealth may be higher, says Fogel, but “China’s share of global GDP — 40% — will dwarf that of the United States (14%) and the European Union (5%) 30 years from now.”

America wears blinders, Asia unstoppable, America losing the war

Asians must be laughing loud at Washington’s blind stupidity, how we are sabotaging our own economic future. They see America as narcissistic, selfish and totally blind to how self-destructive we are. Worse, Asians are not only aware of our stupidity, they’re taking full advantage of it.

Here’s how one Asian leader recently challenged our politicians. In “America’s Blinders,” a Project Syndicate column by Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore and author of “The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World:”

“The time has come to think the unthinkable: the era of American dominance in international affairs may well be coming to an end. As that moment approaches, the main question will be how well the United States is prepared for it.”

Warning: “Asia’s rise over the last few decades is more than a story of rapid economic growth. It is the story of a region undergoing a renaissance in which people’s minds are reopened and their outlook refreshed. Asia’s movement toward resuming its former central role in the global economy has so much momentum that it is virtually unstoppable.”

Mahbubani says politicians “bear a responsibility to prepare their societies for impending global shifts. But too many American leaders are shirking this responsibility.” Then he describes a session he chaired at the 2012 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Topic: the “Future of American Power.” In the audience: Two U.S. senators, a member of the House and a deputy National Security Adviser.

What did they see ahead for American power? “They predictably declared that the U.S. would remain the world’s most powerful country. When asked whether America was prepared to become the world’s second-largest economy, they were reticent.”

But they couldn’t tell the truth. Why? “Even entertaining the possibility of the U.S. becoming ‘No. 2’ amounts to career suicide for an American politician.”

Then Mahbubani exposed the real depth of America’s blindness: Unlike blinded politicians, all intellectuals “have a special obligation to think the unthinkable and speak the unspeakable ... consider all possibilities, even disagreeable ones ... prepare the population for prospective developments. Honest discussion of unpopular ideas is a key feature of an open society.”

But American intellectuals are also blind. His two examples: Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, recently wrote we “could already be in the second decade of another American century.” And Clyde Prestowitz, president of the Economic Strategy Institute, says “this century may well wind up being another American century.” If they “prove accurate,” says Mahbubani, “ no preparation is needed.”

Americans ‘woefully unprepared’ for Asia as the global superpower

But, “if the world’s center of gravity shifts to Asia,” as Fogel predicts, “Americans will be woefully unprepared.” He warns that “many Americans remain shockingly unaware of how much the rest of the world, especially Asia, has progressed.”

Most Americans are blind to “a simple, mathematical truth. With 3% of the world’s population, the U.S. can no longer dominate the rest of the world, because Asians, with 60% of the world’s population, are no longer underperforming.”

Unfortunately, American leaders stay blind, refuse to listen, especially our neocon war-lovers. Asians see Americans lost in a fantasy land, believing we are “the sole beacon of light in a dark and unstable world.” And since leaders like Haas and Prestowitz also believe this illusion, don’t challenge our fantasies, the public is ignorant, unprepared.

Mahbubani tries to soften the blow: “Asia’s rise is not really bad news.” Asians “are seeking not to dominate the West, but to emulate it. They seek to build strong and dynamic middle classes and to achieve the kind of peace, stability, and prosperity that the West has long enjoyed.”

Wake up America: Asia will soon be 5 times bigger, more powerful

Asia’s transformation is accelerating, will “catapult Asia from economic power to global leadership. China, which remains a closed society in many ways, has an open mind, whereas the U.S. is an open society with a closed mind ... with Asia’s middle class set to skyrocket from roughly 500 million people today to 1.75 billion by 2020.” America, with just 400 million people, can no longer “avoid the global economy’s new realities for much longer.”

Now you’ve had a look inside one of Asia’s leading minds. The leader of a major Asian university sees the world “poised to undergo one of the most dramatic power shifts in human history.” But “to prepare for the transformation, Americans must abandon ingrained ideas and old assumptions ... liberate unthinkable thoughts. ... think the unthinkable” ... and stop denying the end of American dominance in world affairs.

America must wake up to the fact that we will soon be No. 2 behind Asia, as China’s economy explodes, three times bigger than America’s by 2040. Wake up before Sen. McCain’s neocon and tea party buddies push Washington into a real war.

 

[向问天]

美国急需政治体制改革。
两手都要硬。

 

[kanata]

到2040年中国估计已经分裂了.就和前苏联一样. 还谈什么超过美国?

 

[lfe634]

自己不是經濟的專長，但只要有小學程度的數學就知道中國的 GDP 是不會在 2015 年超越美國的。
GDP of USA: $15.685 trillion (2012)
GDP of China: $8.358 trillion (nominal by Expenditure, 2012)

常覺得老外妄自匪薄，把中國看成什麼怪物了。

 

[salas88]

自己不是經濟的專長，但只要有小學程度的數學就知道中國的 GDP 是不會在 2015 年超越美國的。
GDP of USA: $15.685 trillion (2012)
GDP of China: $8.358 trillion (nominal by Expenditure, 2012)

常覺得老外妄自匪薄，把中國看成什麼怪物了。

不就是个翻番吗？请老向再掀一次大跃进，包管３年超英赶美！

 

[Country on wheel]

自己不是經濟的專長，但只要有小學程度的數學就知道中國的 GDP 是不會在 2015 年超越美國的。

GDP of USA: $15.685 trillion (2012)
GDP of China: $8.358 trillion (nominal by Expenditure, 2012)

学过economics 101就懂得，想超过美国GDP，作老大非常容易。只要人民币升值，从现在的１美元兑6.12RMB变成1美元只兑3.06RMB，中国GDP就相当于16.7 万亿美元($16.72trillion USD)，立马超过了老美。习core不想这么干，不太聪明。

 

[salas88]

学过economics 101就懂得，想超过美国GDP，作老大非常容易。只要人民币升值，从现在的１美元兑6.12RMB变成1美元只兑3.06RMB，中国GDP就相当于16.7 万亿美元($16.72trillion USD)，立马超过了老美。习core不想这么干，不太聪明。

一看就没学过economics 101，比GDP得比PPP。

 

[stephen412]

学者发这篇文章的真实性我先不去讨论，在美国极其可能。但是，我要说的是这个人完全不了解美国的整体战略，美国已经起来了，至于亚洲，需要区分：东亚，西亚或者别的地方。这一次，美国彻底做掉了中国，自己也成功的起来了。也就是说，中国失去了一次在亚太地区成为霸主的机会，而美国稳固了新的15年的霸主地位！

 

[向问天]

学者发这篇文章的真实性我先不去讨论，在美国极其可能。但是，我要说的是这个人完全不了解美国的整体战略，美国已经起来了，至于亚洲，需要区分：东亚，西亚或者别的地方。这一次，美国彻底做掉了中国，自己也成功的起来了。也就是说，中国失去了一次在亚太地区成为霸主的机会，而美国稳固了新的15年的霸主地位！

如果美国一调整， 中国成为在亚太地区成为霸主的机会就没了，这只能说明这个机会根本不存在。

 

[Country on wheel]

俺说这些就是想说明，靠GDP想当世界老大就是个玩数字游戏的问题。央行换个汇率牌，就超美了。没有任何实质意义。如同那谁谁常说，如果人民币成为自由兑换货币，可能会降到1美元兑20RMB。中国GDP就要缩水60％。