那些在华尔街学到的事儿

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http://wallstreetcn.com/node/49138
作者:Nick Colas 任职于著名经纪公司ConvergEx,在华尔街拥有超过20年经验

华尔街的文化,在复杂的数学模型和高端金融概念的光环背后,原本应该体现高度发达的现代文明,但其实却和原始部落拥有更多的共同点。两者最大的共同点就是严格遵守口口相传的传统。

你可以阅读所有关于投资的书籍却依旧对于如何在市场中赚钱一无所知。毕竟维基百科里没有关于如何长期从股票、债券和商品中交易中获利的页面。如果你想要知道如何才能成为一个优秀的投行家,那就不要再白费功夫往Kindle里下载一系列相关书籍了。

华尔街的生活核心是讲故事:如何讲述你自己的故事,以及如何理解别人告诉你的那些故事。人人都说,华尔街是属于年轻人的,然而真相是老鸟才是王道。正如一位经验丰富的长辈级分析师所说的:“年龄和背叛每一次都会战胜年轻和生气。”的确,在华尔街,就算到了退休协会开始向你发送垃圾邮件的年龄,你也必须继续保持一刻不断学习的心。不过在那时候,你至少会避免犯菜鸟式的错误。

自从1984年我在一家共有基金邮件房做暑期工开始,共遇到了四个我认定是导师的长辈。他们之中,一个是销售,两个是卖方分析员,还有一个现在依旧在管理资金。

导师学徒薪火相传,在过去的20年中成为了华尔街的一种制度。大公司会安排资深员工对刚进公司的新人进行指导,期望“公司的未来”可以从“公司的现在”身上学到些什么。尽管完全不相识的人仍旧可以培养出关系,但若导师和学徒自己找到了彼此,并私下有所联系的话,效果可以更好。

以下的一些是我从导师身上学到的道理:

1. “如果你想要得到答案,你必须先问出问题。”

我在曼哈顿中心工作,尚未读商学院的时候,我的导师\老板的办公室面对着一个酒店工地。每周一,我们都会发现用来起重的吊车为了配合日益建成的楼房而可以非常神秘地升高20-30英尺。我们都很惊讶这是为什么。在我生日的那天,老板说要请我午餐,但是我们必须先经过工地。她安排了工地的领班,向我们介绍吊车是如何在每周六早上“长高”的。原来,需要的只是液压起重机、额外的支撑架以及风和日丽的天气。谜题解决了,要找到问题的答案,必须找到对的人提出疑问。

2. “用自己想要的方法做事。”

在我第一份和华尔街有关的工作中,遇到了一位著名的消费行业女分析师。在机构投资者的顶级分析师排名中名列前茅超过15年,所有人都对她非常尊敬。在我观察她工作的时候,她从来不用电脑。尽管在90年代,电脑是非常尖端的科技,但它可以大大提高工作的效率。但是她却告诉我,自己不会仅仅为了改变而改变习惯的工作方式,她自己的工作方式对自己来说非常有效。在多年后退休之前,她仍旧一直在分析师排名中领先。

3.“信息加上不断重复就等于特权。”

我职业生涯中影响最大的人是一位机械行业分析师。他的优势并不在于从事增加价值的基础工作,他是一位将投资观点整合再整理的大师。如果他为一家公司写了一份100页的报告,他会找到10个不同的理由给客户打去电话,并且在公司的早会上发言,发表角度完全不同的观点。

“就算你有好的想法,没有人会记住你有多聪明。”他这样告诉我。如果你想在华尔街扬名,你就必须重复重复再重复。这个想法一直跟随着我,这就是为什么现在我们公司一年中超过200天都会向客户发去投资建议。

4. “所有事情都有原因,总有人知道这些原因,确保你是其中之一。”

最后一位影响我的人士拥有一家大型对冲基金。我和他一起工作的时候公司还很小,所以我有机会经常从他身上学到一些智慧。

就算你在一家以交易为核心的对冲基金工作,你也很难确切地了解一种资本分配方式和其他的有何区别。所有相关指标,PE率、经济数据等都已经反映在价格之中,从而被认为是没有价值的。你必须有自己的渠道,来发展出一套与主流不同的交易观点。当然,这一渠道必须是合法的。

当在熊市时,某只股票毫无缘由的上涨5%的时候,绝大多数投资者会耸耸肩,并且很有智慧的说出“大概是买家超过了卖家”这样的话。在很多对冲基金公司,这将会让你失去工作。你的工作就是获悉原因。对冲基金的咒语就是不论错对,股票的异动都是有原因的。如果你不知道,你也必须把它找出来。否则,你的老板会炒你鱿鱼并且雇佣一个知道原因的员工。

在最后华尔街见闻必须指出,好的导师可以指导你如何在商海中走下去,但真正的道路还是要靠自己来走。
 
4 Lessons From A Life On Wall Street
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-04/4-lessons-life-wall-street

In 20+ years of life on Wall Street, ConvergEx's Nick Colas has had four mentors who helped him make sense of the business. Some were very hands-on, and others taught more by example. In an intriguing note, Nick explains the four key lessons he learned from them. The single most useful lesson, especially for a brokerage analyst: “Message plus repetition equal franchise.” Other sayings that have stuck with Nick are “If you want and answer, you need to ask a question” and “do things the way you want to do them.” While simple to say, behind those simple aphorisms sit much richer messages.

Via ConvergEx's Nick Colas,

Stuff My Mentors Have Told Me

The culture of Wall Street, for all its gloss of mathematical sophistication and notions of high finance, has more in common with a primitive tribe than a supposedly more advanced civilization. The common characteristic is a strict adherence to an oral tradition. You can read every book dedicated to investing and still be clueless about how to actually make money in the market. There is no Wiki entry for how to trade stocks or bonds or commodities that will make you consistently profitable. And forget trying to figure out how to be a productive investment banker by downloading a bunch of books on your Kindle.

Life in and around the Street comes down to storytelling: how to tell your own and interpret the narratives others impart to you. For all the commentary that “It’s a young person’s game” the truth is that the grey muzzles tend to have a leg up on the pups. As one veteran analyst told me when I started in the business, “Old age and treachery beats youth and exuberance every time”. Granted, you have to be open to learning even after the AARP starts sending you junk mail. But at least you should be past the rookie mistakes by that point.

I have had four people I consider mentors in the business since I started working summers in a mutual fund mailroom in 1984. One was a salesperson, two were sell-side analysts, and one still manages money. My involvement with them declines as my career progressed, but there’s no way I would be writing these pieces on a daily basis without the lessons learned at their side.

Mentoring has, of course, become institutionalized on Wall Street in the last two decades. Large companies assign senior people to incoming young employees in the hopes that the “Firm of tomorrow” learns from the “firm of today”. It’s all little bit like those mass weddings the Reverend Sun Myung Moon used perform in sports stadiums. Total strangers can connect and create a relationship, to be sure. But it usually works better when individuals find each other, connect at some level, and build a personal connection.

The following are a few lessons I learned from people who took an interest in my career and progress, not because they were mandated to help, but because they wanted to push me along.

Lesson #1 – “If you want an answer, you need to ask a question.” When I worked in midtown Manhattan before heading off to business school, my mentor/boss had an office facing the construction site for a new hotel. Every Monday we’d notice that the crane used to lift materials to the top floor had mysteriously risen by 20-30 feet to accommodate the every-growing building. We pondered how this happened. I had one theory, my boss another, and other co-workers chimed in with varying hypotheses. This was long before the Internet, mind you. There was no way to Google or Youtube an answer.​
On my birthday, my boss said she was taking me out for lunch, but first we had a stop to make. We walked up to the building site, where she had arranged the foreman to explain how the crane went up every Saturday morning. It had something to do with hydraulic jacks, extra trusses and the need for a calm, not too windy day. Mystery solved, and lesson that all you need to find an answer is to ask the right person.​
Lesson #2 – “Do things the way you want to do them.” My first contact with Wall Street research was a long-time and highly successful Consumer Products analyst at a summer intern stint during business school. She had been on the first Institutional Investor list of top analysts and held her position for +15 years. Everyone from senior traders to investment bankers to the firm’s top clients held her in high regard. And, fortunately, she took enough of an interest in me that she was remarkably candid about everything.​
As I watched her work, I realized that she didn’t use a computer for anything. Granted, this was in 1990, and Wang word processors with 8 inch floppy disks were cutting edge technology. To write a note, she would sit down with a legal sized yellow pad and start with a summary and then long hand her entire report. For an earnings model, she would tape a column of paper to her last printed report and work every line of the financial statements by hand.​
I asked her once why she didn’t use a computer for any of this. “It is much faster,” I explained. She pointed to the wall in her office that displayed the plaques you used to get when you made the II “Top analysts” list. She wasn’t about to change anything in her workflow just for the sake of change. Her method worked for her, and she continued to rank highly versus her competition until she retired many years later.​
Lesson #3 – “Message plus repetition equals franchise.” The single most influential person in my career was a Machinery sector analyst who helped me when I got to my first senior analyst position after grad school. He, like my summer time boss/mentor, has been an II ranked analyst ever since the 1970s. He was way ahead of his time, hosting events for industry experts and doing global demand surveys long before such things became Wall Street’s stock in trade.​
His edge wasn’t just doing the fundamental work to add value; he was a master of packaging and repackaging his investment viewpoints. If he did a 100-page report on John Deere, he would find 10 different reasons to call clients and appear on the firm’s morning call to highlight different themes from the same King James Bible sized tome he had produced.​
“Even if you have good ideas,” he told me, “no-one has time to remember how smart you are.” If you want to build a name on Wall Street, you have to repeat, repeat, repeat. That stuck with me, and it is the central reason the ConvergEx note comes to you every day, +200 days a year.​
Lesson #4 – “There is always a reason. Someone knows it. Make sure it is you.” The last person that heavily influenced my view of Wall Street and investing runs a large hedge fund. I was with him when it was much smaller, so I got to watch and learn and (occasionally) pick up a bit of wisdom.​
Unless you’ve worked at a trading-oriented hedge fund, it is hard to understand just how different this approach to allocating capital is from other popular paradigms. Anything that is based on simple math – P/E ratios, economic data of any sort, etc. – is deemed to be “Already in the stock” and essentially worthless. You need to know it, but it isn’t any part of an investment case. Instead, you need to have your own separate channels of information that develop a different view of the investment than the mainstream. And, of course, it needs to be legal.​
When a stock is up 5% in a down market on no discernable news, most investors will shrug and say something clever like “Must be more buyers than sellers.” That will get you fired at many hedge funds. Your job is to know. The hedgie’s mantra, rightly or wrongly, is that there is always a reason for an anomalous move in a security. If you don’t know it, go find it. Or your boss will fire you and hire the guy/gal who does.​

That’s a harsh message on which to end this note, but it feels oddly appropriate. Good mentors act as guides to the business, but the journey isn’t easy for anyone. The best they can do is point out a few hazards and perhaps a shortcut or two. The rest is up to you.
 
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