让我们看看加拿大赤字和债务历史

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Monday, April 20, 2015
A Look at Canada's Deficit and Debt History

http://viableopposition.blogspot.ca/2015/04/a-look-at-canadas-deficit-and-debt.html

With the Harper government having unveiled their belated 2015 - 2016 budget, I thought that we should take this opportunity to look back in history and see how the Harper government's budgetary habits have compared to those of past federal governments. For this posting, I have sourced my data from this TD Bank publication which is current to April 2015.

Let's open by looking at Canada's political history since 1980:
1980 to 1984 - Pierre Trudeau (Liberal)
1984 to 1984 - John Turner (Liberal)
1984 to 1993 - Brian Mulroney (Progressive Conservative)
1993 to 2003 - Jean Chretien (Liberal)
2003 to 2006 - Paul Martin (Liberal)
2006 to 2011 - Stephen Harper (Conservative - minority)
2011 to present - Stephen Harper (Conservative - majority)

Now, let's look at a table that shows Canada's fiscal history since the fiscal year 1986 - 1987, during the later years of the Mulroney government:



As we can see, out of the past 30 fiscal years (including the projections for 2014 - 2015 and 2015 - 2016), the federal government has run a surplus for only 12 years with all but three of them either under the leadership of Paul Martin or under his guidance as Finance Minister. Over the 11 consecutive years that the budget was in a surplus situation, the average surplus was $9.521 billion with Canada's best fiscal performance occurring in 2000 - 2001 when the budget surplus hit $19.891 billion. On the other hand, the federal government has run a deficit for 18 out of the 30 years or 60 percent of the time. Over the 18 budget years that the government ran a deficit, the average deficit was $26.808 billion with Canada's worst nominal fiscal performance occurring in 2009 - 2010 when the budget deficit hit $55.598 billion. That single deficit erased all of the positive fiscal gains made between 2001 - 2002 and 2007 - 2008.

Now, let's look at the data in graphical form, starting with the annual deficit information:

Screen Shot 2015-04-18 at 1_17_08 PM.png


This graph very clearly shows how the federal government has spent relatively little time in a balanced budget situation.

Here is a graph showing how Canada's federal net debt has grown since 1986:
Screen Shot 2015-04-18 at 1_41_01 PM.png


The level of debt rose quite rapidly during the period from 1986 to 1997, growing from $257.7 billion to $562.9 billion, an increase of $305.2 billion or 118.4 percent. Between 1998 and 2009, the net federal debt dropped slowly, hitting a low of $457.6 billion in fiscal 2007 - 2008. Over that particular 11 year period, the debt dropped by $105.3 billion or 18.7 percent. Once the world economy began to experience the impact of the Great Recession, Canada, like many other nations, found it necessary to massively increase stimulus spending. Over the six year period from fiscal 2008 - 2009 to 2013 - 2014, the government spent a total of $144.569 billion more that it received in revenue. This pushed the net federal debt up to a peak of $611.9 billion in fiscal 2013 - 2014, an increase of $154.3 billion since Stephen Harper took control of the nation.
As I posted way back in 2012, as a Reform MP, Stephen Harper had what might be considered a very strong opinion on government fiscal balance. In reference to then-Alberta Premier Ralph Klein and his efforts to balance the province's budget back in 1994, Mr. Harper had this to say:
"Although I can't speak of the details because it is not my area of expertise, what Mr. Klein is doing in Alberta is, in principle, what governments need to do. He is taking a look at a situation that is unsustainable financially and he is taking the steps necessary through expenditure reductions to eliminate that financial uncertainty on a permanent basis within the life of a single Parliament. That is the only way it ever gets done. Any politician who says he is going to do it over two Parliaments is never going to do it. That's the golden rule. That's something that you can learn from Ralph Klein." (my bold)
Apparently, it's easier to talk about something than it is to actually do it.
While Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party of Canada will, no doubt, be campaigning on how well they have done at steering Canada's economy through the post-Great Recession era, in fact, we need to remember that his government has greatly increased the nation's federal debt. Right now, this increase seems relatively painless because interest owing on the debt is manageable in the current low interest rate environment, a factor that has made it somewhat easier to achieve fiscal balance. However, should interest rates rise back to something approaching a normal level, the pain of overspending by the Conservatives will become quite apparent. As well, with economic growth levels in both Europe and the United States remaining at only modest levels compared to normal inter-recessional rates and oil prices hitting multi-year lows, achieving fiscal balance over the long-term will become increasingly difficult for the next federal government, whoever they may be.
 
立等,看看谁来洗地?
 
给俺一印象:自由党挣钱还债,然后保守党花钱借债,没钱了,自由党再上来挣钱为保守党上台花钱做准备。:evil:
 
保守党在过去一年突然由赤字转为盈余,你能相信吗?有没有玩数字游戏?
 
保守党在过去一年突然由赤字转为盈余,你能相信吗?有没有玩数字游戏?
把俺们多年没用攒下的sick leave都折算成收入了,或许纸面上的数字好看些吧?:confused:
 
把俺们多年没用攒下的sick leave都折算成收入了,或许纸面上的数字好看些吧?:confused:
还卖了GM的股票 据说根本不顾股票是否赚钱 这都是纳税人的钱 抵消deficit也没这么做的 要是你家自己的钱你会这么做么?完全是为了大选做的数字游戏
 
还卖了GM的股票 据说根本不顾股票是否赚钱 这都是纳税人的钱 抵消deficit也没这么做的 要是你家自己的钱你会这么做么?完全是为了大选做的数字游戏
能骗一个是一个吧,一个被本省选民所抛弃的政党,能指望有啥大作为。
阿省那是一个惨啊,很多公司裁了一半。成本都是60,不裁人几个月就废了。
其实8成流失人口流向”债务危机很像希腊”的Ontario。
很多人讨论经济,连看经济最主要指标,那就是“就业”都不懂,纯属对牛弹琴。
 
总之,自由党该彻底从政治领域滚蛋。下去好好反省去,对谁都有好处。保守党这么破烂,台上这么多年,自由党本应该是不需做任何努力,直接上台的(看图表差不多10年左右总要换党的)。结果直接出局。中间偏左本来是加拿大最讨好的定位。愣是被自由党自己让了位。可惜。

至于说什么统计局作弊,什么谁挣谁还,都是闲话。没有证据,显得自由党支持者心彻底虚了。等于说小土豆是同性恋(不恰当的例子,说的意思是,不合适这么说)。

就业,一家人全就业了,咋还欠了那么多儿子都还不起的债呢。就业在美国是个数据,在福利国家还是看债务吧。还跟石油崩盘后的阿省比。牛的不行。

保守党也不怎样,执政风格太露骨。

哈哈. 等着看戏。
 
最后编辑:
嗯,建议看看美国人国债到底欠了多少钱,再看看美国最牛的加州的财务状况,前几年都打白条了,笑死了。
 
一泡烂污的加拿大经济啊,石油不行了,原材料不行了,高科技还有吗,bbry到了,喔,还有shop,也算本土高科吧
零售业有吗,倒了两家大的,喔,那是美国的,还有sears,进去看看还有人吗
喔,costco不错,可那是美国的。
唯一还有亮点的房地产,看上去数字不错,gdp没暴跌完全就是这板块还行,其实都是粘了大温大多的光,除了这两地,房地产那是负增长。而且卖都卖不出去。
就这样了,保守党还要打压房市,脑子不是瓦特了,是被枪打过了,还是三枪。
 
嗯,建议看看美国人国债到底欠了多少钱,再看看美国最牛的加州的财务状况,前几年都打白条了,笑死了。
跟阿省比的不过瘾?
 
喔,忘了还有安省制造业,不过这省份跟希腊一个鸟样。呵呵。
 
一泡烂污的加拿大经济啊,石油不行了,原材料不行了,高科技还有吗,bbry到了,喔,还有shop,也算本土高科吧
零售业有吗,倒了两家大的,喔,那是美国的,还有sears,进去看看还有人吗
喔,costco不错,可那是美国的。
唯一还有亮点的房地产,看上去数字不错,gdp没暴跌完全就是这板块还行,其实都是粘了大温大多的光,除了这两地,房地产那是负增长。而且卖都卖不出去。
就这样了,保守党还要打压房市,脑子不是瓦特了,是被枪打过了,还是三枪。

大家都盼着房子涨吧。给制造业的刺激啊。三枪过后,制造业才刚刚有起色,房价已经涨了三轮了。不压才是瓦特了.
 
跟阿省比的不过瘾?
看经济要综合看,安省经济是加拿大number one。否则不会吸引这么多人过来的。got it
经济数据要看的很多,懒得科普了。
每个人管好自己口粮袋子就行了,每天没事就算算自己net worth多少。
ottawa笑toronto,那里的平均净资产都85万了。
 
大家都盼着房子涨吧。给制造业的刺激啊。三枪过后,制造业才刚刚有起色,房价已经涨了三轮了。不压才是瓦特了.
ottawa房子卖都卖不掉,圈哥,你醒醒吧,还涨了三轮。10-15,那是0增长。
toront那是一年10percent,不过我说了你肯定不信。
回到制造业,安省那是重镇,情况不错。回到重点,安省那是加拿大经济number one
 
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