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  1. 9981

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    谢谢补图:D:evil::evil::evil:
     
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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
    Goldman Echoes JPMorgan in Predicting Higher U.S. Tariffs on China


    Goldman Sachs has a message for traders clinging to the hope that U.S. and Chinese negotiators will reach an eleventh-hour solution before the trade war escalates at midnight on Friday: Don’t bet on it.



    U.S. markets gyrated on Wednesday as investors grappled with conflicting headlines on whether the trading relationship between the world’s two largest economies will truly take a turn for the worse.



    received “an indication’’ that China is ready to resolve this fraught affair. Soon after, China’s Ministry of Commerce said the world’s second-largest economy was already preparing retaliatory countermeasuresin the event that the U.S. upped tariff rates.



    It’s a “close call,’’ writes Goldman analyst Alec Phillips, a former Senate Finance Committee staffer, who judges that there’s a 60 percent chance higher tariffs rates will go into effect.



    [​IMG]
    In an interview on Bloomberg TV, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon agreed that he didn’t think the two sides would get the deal done by Friday.

    Goldman doesn’t expect trade talks to devolve much further. Phillips views the likelihood that tariffs are applied to the final round of $300 billion of Chinese imports as one-in-four, and just a one-in-10 chance that auto tariffs are announced on Canada and Mexico, as this would scuttle the odds of the passage of a renegotiated trade pact among the three North American countries.



    Trump announced via Twitter over the weekend that the levy on $200 billion in Chinese imports would rise to 25 percent on May 10, citing a lack of progress in negotiations between the two sides. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer echoed the president’s remarks after the close of trading on Monday.
     
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    theriver1 发表评论于 2019-05-09 14:24:47
    现在加关税,对川普最有利的一点就是可以完全把贸易战谈判破裂的责任推给习近平。可别小看了这个甩包袱的绝佳良机,这在政治上对川普的助力可是起到了一石三鸟的最佳效果。1.让所有美国国内对川普贸易战的质疑全部消失。过去对川普的质疑(主要是商界),几乎全都集中在一点:“川普要价太高,逼得中国走投无路,干脆来个鱼死网破,让川普的梦想变成渔夫和金鱼的故事,最终竹篮打水一场空”。结果恰恰因为这次习近平的反悔,终于暴露了他的狐狸尾巴-习近平根本就没想着让你得到什么,因为他把最开始的框架都推翻了。总之,问题还是出在老毛病上-诚信问题,和要价高不高根本就没关系。而美国政商两届可是向来把诚信问题看成头等大事。谁要失去诚信,那他立马变成美国政界的全民公敌,人人都要喊打的。最典型的例子就是萨达姆,他在核检查问题上一再欺骗美国,才让小布什的对伊拉克战争批准权这么严肃的事情,竟然在国会一呼百应!
     
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    中国与美国的贸易战谈判据报接近尾声时忽然间满城风雨甚至硝烟滚滚。中国副总理刘鹤今天率团再去美国谈判。中国拒绝妥协,特朗普报复中国反悔,但同时中美两国都说希望谈成协议。特朗普是否能够让中国回到没有反悔前的版本引关注。路透社新发中美两国贸易分歧各点。美国联邦政府官报(Federal Register)周三刊登公告显示,从本周五(5月10日)开始,美国将把价值2,000亿美元的中国输美商品的关税从10%提高到25%。此时正是刘鹤抵美谈判时。
    据路透社独家说,中国想改变与美国贸易协议草案的几乎所有内容。
    路透社发自华盛顿与北京消息报道说,据得知谈判情况的三位美国政府消息人士和三位民间部门消息人士称,上周五深夜华盛顿收到北京发来的外交电报,对一份长达近150页的贸易协议草案做出重大修改,这些改动将令中美持续数月的谈判前功尽弃。
    据消息人士告诉路透,中国在文件中推翻了之前做出的多个承诺,这将导致美国的核心要求无法得到满足。
    在这份贸易协议草案的七个章节中,中国删除了每一个章节中修法以解决美国主要关切的承诺,其中包括窃取美国知识产权和商业机密、强制技术转让、竞争政策、金融服务准入和货币操纵等。正是这些关切导致美国发动了对华贸易战。
    据美国总统特朗普周日发推文回应,誓言将于周五把对2,000亿美元中国输美商品的关税从10%上调至25%,生效时间点正好是中国副总理刘鹤到访华盛顿继续贸易谈判期间。
    美国联邦政府官报(Federal Register)周三刊登公告显示,从本周五(5月10日)开始,美国将把价值2,000亿美元的中国输美商品的关税从10%提高到25%。
    中国商务部立即作出回应,新闻发言人指出,如果美方关税措施付诸实施,中方将不得不采取必要反制措施。升级贸易摩擦不符合两国人民和世界人民的利益,中方对此深表遗憾。
    “中国改口并试图重新磋商贸易协议的原因,是真心希望他们能够与拜登或一个非常软弱的民主党人‘谈判’。”特朗普周三早间在推特上写道。特朗普还表示,他很乐意保留对中国输美商品的关税。
    路透社说,中国从协议草案中删除的具有约束力的法律表述,正是被美国贸易代表莱特希泽视为重中之重的内容。莱特希泽认为,中国修法对确认协议的落实至关重要。多年来,美国官员一直抱怨中国的改革承诺都是空话。
    莱特希泽强力主张采取类似惩罚性经济制裁,诸如朝鲜或伊朗制裁,中所使用的落实机制,而不是典型的贸易协议的落实机制。
    据华盛顿一名知悉谈判情况的消息人士称。“中方的删减削弱了协议的核心架构。”
    路透社说,白宫、美国贸易代表办公室以及美国财政部的发言人均未回复置评要求。
    中国外交部发言人耿爽周二在记者会上表示,谈判本身就是讨论的过程,双方存在分歧很正常,中方不回避矛盾。
    耿爽将有关贸易谈判的具体问题转给了商务部,但商务部没有立即回复路透社通过传真提出的问题。
    莱特希泽和美国财长努钦对草案的修改程度感到吃惊。这两名内阁官员周一对记者表示,中国推翻之前的承诺促使特朗普发布了关税令,但没有提供修改的深度和广度的细节。
    两名消息人士称,刘鹤上周对莱特希泽和努钦表示,他们需要相信中国,会通过行政和监管改革来履行承诺。鉴于中国过去未能兑现改革承诺的历史,努钦和莱特希泽都认为这是不可接受的。
    一位听取了谈判情况简报的民间部门消息人士称,最后一轮谈判进行得很不顺利,因为“中国变得贪心了”。据这位消息人士称,“中国在十几个问题上出尔反尔,如果不是更多的话,谈判进行得很糟糕,特朗普直到周日才爆发真的让人意外。”
    “中国20年来和美国打交道想做什么就做什么,但似乎对于这届美国政府还是误判了。”
    谈判的迅速恶化本周令全球股市、债市和大宗商品市场感到不安。截至周日,市场一直预期两国官员即将达成协议。
    报道引述一些投资人及分析师怀疑,特朗普的推文是不是一种谈判手段,以迫使中国作出更多让步。消息人士向路透表示,中国更改文本的程度很大,特朗普的回应并非只是谈判策略。
    周三上午,美国股市再次下跌,但在白宫发言人桑德斯表示,中国已向美国暗示,北京方面希望达成一项贸易协议后,股市出现反弹。
    其中一名政府消息人士表示,中方谈判人员说他们不可能触碰法律,形容这些变动“很大”。
    一位了解情况的中国官员对路透表示,中国的法律如若修改是需要特有的一套流程体系,而不是轻易说改就改的。他说,中国的底线是明确的,不会单方面的委曲求全,所以谈不上所谓的“在承诺上后退”。贸易磋商已经经历了十轮,在双方已经达成共识的基础上,谈判成果应该越来越好而不应要求越来越苛刻、路越走越窄。
    刘鹤定于周四抵达华盛顿,参加为期两天的谈判;而就在上周外界还纷纷认为此次谈判至关重要,可能是达成历史性贸易协议前的最后一轮谈判。两位消息人士称,目前美国官员不抱太大希望,认为刘鹤不会带来任何能让谈判重回正轨的提议。
    路透社引述一些消息人士称,为了避免冲突升级,刘鹤将可能不得不放弃中国提出的修改文本,并同意制定新的法律。中国还必须在其他关键问题上进一步向美国立场靠拢,比如限制中国行业补贴的要求,以及简化美国转基因作物的审批程序。
     
  5. 9981

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    小牛老板马克库班有话要说, 停止中国公司在美上市 炮打华尔街

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-cuban-china-trade-war-trump-130539755.html
    Mark Cuban explains how he would fight the trade war differently than Trump

    In a new interview, Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban sharply criticized the tariffs slapped on Chinese products by President Donald Trump, proposing instead that the U.S. stop allowing Chinese companies to go public or trade on U.S. stock exchanges.

    “I'd shut down all Chinese IPOs—that's the first step,” says Cuban, a billionaire entrepreneur and host of the show “Shark Tank.” “Given [Trump’s] propensity for using Twitter and throwing warning shots, I would throw out there that we might put a halt on the trading of Chinese-listed stocks in the United States.”

    “A trading halt would certainly create a lot of disruption for those Chinese companies,” adds Cuban, who’s considering an independent run for president in 2020.

    Why Cuban opposes Trump tariffs, explains how he would fight trade war

    Cuban has also invested in hundreds of start-ups as a host of the TV show “Shark Tank,” which he joined in 2012.

    [​IMG]
    Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban watches during the second half of an NBA basketball game between the Washington Wizards and the Dallas Mavericks, Wednesday, March 6, 2019, in Washington. The Wizards won 132-123. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
    ‘I think tariffs are attacks on the American people’
    “I’m not a fan of the tariffs,” Cuban says. “I think tariffs are attacks on the American people.”


    Cuban acknowledged that his proposed ban of Chinese companies on U.S. stock exchanges could also have adverse effects for Americans—those who hold stock in the Chinese companies.

    “Now, they are American shareholders, but the reality is that long term, the value of the company is the value of the company,” he says.

    Trump has taken additional steps beyond the tariffs imposed on China. Last week, he declared a national emergency over threats to the U.S. posed by foreign tech companies, a move many perceived as a blow to Chinese telecommunications equipment company Huawei.

    Trump is reportedly considering imposing limits on the Chinese tech firm Hikivison, which produces surveillance technology used by the Chinese government to track members of the country’s Uighur minority, about 1 million of whom have been detained in internment camps.
     
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    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/13/larry-kudlow-trade-deal-china-3421474

    Larry Kudlow: U.S. needs to ‘kick butt’ to get trade deal with China

    White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Thursday defended President Donald Trump's combative approach to trade negotiations, but acknowledged there aren’t any formal plans yet for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 leaders summit later this month.

    "You know how you get from here to there, Fred? You kick some butt," Kudlow said during an on-stage conversation with Fred Bergsten, the president emeritus of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "You kick some butt, in my best economic analytical quantitative regression analysis."


    Kudlow‘s comments on the Trump administration's philosophy toward persuading China and other trading countries to lower their barriers were made before an audience of economists that has been skeptical about Trump's use of tariffs to pressure other countries to change their behavior. But Kudlow argued the strong-arm tactics were needed, especially with Beijing.

    "We didn't start this," Kudlow said. "What I will call the China problem has been going on for a long time, several decades. But President Trump is the first guy in these several decades to take strong actions to remedy a very unbalanced trading relationship, where the Chinese have violated international trade law."

    Bergsten pushed back, arguing it was far from clear that the "butt-kicking approach" would work on a country as big as China. In addition, many American companies rely on imports from China to make final goods. Increasing the price of those items makes American companies less competitive with other suppliers and hurts their exports, Bergsten said.

    A speed read on global trade news — weekday mornings, in your inbox.

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    So far, Trump has imposed a 25 percent tariff on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods and has initiated action to impose the same duty on almost all remaining Chinese products, worth about another $300 billion. The next batch includes many consumer goods like cell phones, clothing, footwear, toys, televisions and other electronics.

    Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he has no date in mind for when he will decide whether to impose additional tariffs on China.

    "No, I have no deadline. My deadline is what's up here," Trump said, pointing to his head.

    Trade talks between the two countries broke down in May after Trump accused the Chinese of backsliding on some previous commitments. However, both leaders are expected to attend the June 28-29 G-20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, raising hopes for a bilateral meeting to get negotiations back on track.

    However, with just two weeks until the G-20 summit, there are still no "formalized" plans for a Trump-Xi meeting, Kudlow said.

    After first saying he did not want to comment of the possibility of the two leaders not meeting, Kudlow darkly hinted Trump could respond negatively to such a snub.

    "My president has indicated a strong desire to sit and meet. He's also indicated if the meeting doesn't come to pass, there may be consequences," Kudlow said, apparently referring to Trump's statement earlier this week that he would impose tariffs on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in that scenario.

    China has already imposed retaliatory duties on about $110 billion worth of American exports, which is about 80 to 90 percent of what it buys from the United States. If Trump does impose additional duties, Beijing could respond by hitting the remaining U.S. goods or taking other actions against companies doing business in China.

    Trump claims that China is bearing the brunt of his tariffs, even though they are actually paid by the companies that import the goods. In that vein, Kudlow argued the impact of the tariffs on U.S. consumer prices is "very, very small" because American companies can buy the same product from other countries, rather than suppliers in China.

    Kudlow was asked whether Trump needed a deal with China for his strategy to be a success, or whether the Trump administration would be equally satisfied with indefinitely leaving duties on potentially as much as $550 billion worth of Chinese goods. He responded by saying he did not understand the question.

    On another point, he dismissed recent Chinese calls for "a more balanced agreement" than was on the table earlier this year.

    "We can't have a so-called balanced agreement, because we have such an unbalanced relationship," Kudlow said. "There's a long of wrongs that need to be righted from the standpoint of international trading rules."
     
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    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/cramer-the-china-trade-deal-is-one-tweet-away-from-blowing-up.html

    Cramer: Trump is ‘hungry for tariffs’ and trade talks are one tweet away from ‘blowing up’

    • Washington is close to placing tariffs on the rest of Chinese goods, Jim Cramer says.
    • The move could come in the next two weeks, he speculates.
    • “I don’t think people realize the president is hungry for tariffs,” he says.
    CNBC’s Jim Cramer said Monday the Trump administration is close to placing additional tariffs on Chinese goods as the yearlong trade war drags on.

    The Chinese are ’one tweet away from blowing it up, ” Cramer said on “Squawk on the Street. ” Beijing has yet to purchase American goods as agreed upon, he added.


    Last week, President Donald Trump tweeted that China “is letting us down” by not buying the goods “that they said they would.” The increased purchases would not only help cut the U.S.’s trade deficit with China but help farmers, as Trump seeks reelection in 2020.

    “We’re about to get tariffs any day now,” Cramer added. “I don’t think people realize the president is hungry for tariffs.”

    Trump in May slapped 25% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and has threatened duties on an additional $325 billion of goods as trade negotiations continue. The additional tariffs would effectively cover all Chinese imports in the United States.

    But Washington agreed to hold off on raising levies as long as China would buy more U.S. agricultural products, after the leaders of the world’s two largest economies met last month.

    And it’s a move that Cramer doesn’t think Trump will hold onto much longer.


    “They (Chinese leaders) better stop playing politics and better start ordering, because most of the industrial companies that I talk to are ready for the next big increase, maybe within the next two weeks,” the “Mad Money ” host said. “We’re about to get tariffs of $300 billion any day now.”

    A White House spokesman was not immediately available for comment.

    The tariffs have been costly for Beijing, with China reporting last week it grewjust 6.2% in its second quarter. It’s the weakest rate reported in at least 27 years, according to the country’s statistics bureau.

    “They better stop playing politics and start ordering,” Cramer said.
     
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    one tweet away from ‘blowing up’, here you go

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/trump-r...with-new-tariffs-on-chinese-imports-1.1295907


    President Donald Trump abruptly escalated his trade war with China, announcing that he would impose a 10 per cent tariff on US$300 billion in Chinese imports that aren’t yet subject to U.S. duties after setbacks in negotiations with Beijing.

    The new tariff will be imposed beginning Sept. 1, he said in a tweet. Another US$250 billion in Chinese goods are already subject to a 25 per cent U.S. tariff.

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer returned from talks with Chinese counterparts in Shangai this week without reporting much progress. Negotiations have been at an impasse since May after the U.S. said the Chinese reneged on provisions of a tentative deal.

    [​IMG]
    Donald J. Trump

    ✔@realDonaldTrump



    Our representatives have just returned from China where they had constructive talks having to do with a future Trade Deal. We thought we had a deal with China three months ago, but sadly, China decided to re-negotiate the deal prior to signing. More recently, China agreed to...



    [​IMG]
    Donald J. Trump

    ✔@realDonaldTrump

    · 41m

    Replying to @realDonaldTrump
    ...buy agricultural product from the U.S. in large quantities, but did not do so. Additionally, my friend President Xi said that he would stop the sale of Fentanyl to the United States – this never happened, and many Americans continue to die! Trade talks are continuing, and...

    [​IMG]
    Donald J. Trump

    @realDonaldTrump


    ...during the talks the U.S. will start, on September 1st, putting a small additional Tariff of 10% on the remaining 300 Billion Dollars of goods and products coming from China into our Country. This does not include the 250 Billion Dollars already Tariffed at 25%...


    12.5K

    1:26 PM - Aug 1, 2019
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    4,122 people are talking about this



    State-run Chinese media called the Shanghai talks “pragmatic.” The two sides confirmed they had discussed increasing Chinese imports of U.S. agricultural products, which have fallen dramatically this year, and that they would meet again in September in Washington.

    U.S. stocks pared gains on the news, while yields on 10-year Treasuries fell to the lowest since 2016.

    Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan in June in what the U.S. said was an effort to get the talks back on track. But Trump said that China failed to fulfill a handshake agreement with Xi to buy more U.S. agricultural products.

    Trump also said that Xi hasn’t met a promise to crackdown on U.S. shipments of fentanyl, a dangerous opioid that has killed tens of thousands of Americans in recent years. “Many Americans continue to die,” Trump said in a tweet.
     
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    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/13/business/economy/china-tariffs.html

    U.S. to Delay Some Tariffs on China

    The delay in tariffs comes as the Trump administration faces mounting pressure from businesses and community groups who say the continuing trade war with China is hurting them.CreditCreditEtienne Laurent/EPA, via Shutterstock


    By Ana Swanson

    • Aug. 13, 2019
    The Trump administration on Tuesday narrowed the list of Chinese products it plans to impose new tariffs on as of Sept. 1, delaying levies on cellphones, laptop computers, toys and other goods and announcing exclusions for other products for various reasons.

    The United States trade representative’s office said that a new 10 percent tariff on roughly half the Chinese goods imported into the United States would still take effect on Sept. 1 as announced by President Trump.

    But tariffs on consumer electronics, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors and some footwear and clothing items are being delayed until Dec. 15, giving retailers time to stockpile the products they need for the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons.

    The administration added that certain products were being removed from the tariff list “based on health, safety, national security and other factors.”

    Liu He, China’s vice premier and the country lead trade negotiator, spoke with Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, on Tuesday, and the three agreed to speak again in two weeks, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.

    On Tuesday, Mr. Trump criticized China for not making large purchases of American farm goods, suggesting that the tariffs might force them into action.

    “As usual, China said they were going to be buying ‘big’ from our great American Farmers,” he wrote. “So far they have not done what they said. Maybe this will be different!”
     
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    用五毛们能听得懂的话说,川普的关税调整与南征北战中的台词不谋而合。

    大踏步后退是为了大踏步前进,不在乎一城一地的得失,而在消灭敌人有生力量
     
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    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/03/tru...a-trade-tariffs-after-latest-retaliation.html

    Trump was so angry after China’s trade retaliation that he wanted to double tariffs

    • President Trump wanted to double tariff rates on Chinese goods last month after Beijing’s latest retaliation in the trade war before settling on a smaller increase, three sources tell CNBC.
    • Trump was outraged after he learned Aug. 23 that China had formalized plans to slap duties on $75 billion in U.S. products in response to new tariffs from Washington on Sept. 1.
    • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer then enlisted multiple CEOs to call Trump and warn him about the impact such a move would have on the stock market and the economy.
    [​IMG]
    President Donald Trump awaits the arrival of Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani at the White House in Washington, July 9, 2019.
    Carlos Barria | Reuters
    President Donald Trump wanted to double tariff rates on Chinese goods last month after Beijing’s latest retaliation in a boiling trade war before settling on a smaller increase, three sources told CNBC.

    The president was outraged after he learned Aug. 23 that China had formalized plans to slap duties on $75 billion in U.S. products in response to new tariffs from Washington on Sept. 1. His initial reaction, communicated to aides on a White House trade call held that day, was to suggest doubling existing tariffs, according to three people briefed on the matter.


    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer then enlisted multiple CEOs to call the president and warn him about the impact such a move would have on the stock market and the economy.

    He settled on a 5% hike in tariff rates on about $550 billion in Chinese products, which he announced in an Aug. 23 tweet after the market close.

    In the following days, both Mnuchin and White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said Trump’s only regret was not raising tariffs higher.

    [​IMG]


    WATCH NOW
    VIDEO01:41
    What the ‘Predictably Irrational’ author says not to do when the stock market tanks

    The revelation that Trump wanted to double duties comes on a day when fears about the trade war between the world’s two largest economies helped to sink major U.S. stock indexes. Both the U.S. and China imposed new tariffs on some goods Sunday.

    Earlier Tuesday, Trump suggested he could take even more drastic action to crack down on China’s trade practices if he wins reelection next year without a new trade agreement in place.


    “Deal would get MUCH TOUGHER!” he wrote in a tweet.


    [​IMG]
    Donald J. Trump

    ✔@realDonaldTrump



    We are doing very well in our negotiations with China. While I am sure they would love to be dealing with a new administration so they could continue their practice of “ripoff USA”($600 B/year),16 months PLUS is a long time to be hemorrhaging jobs and companies on a long-shot....


    75.1K

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    The trade war has contributed to investor concerns about a global economic slowdown. New economic data Tuesday did not help: The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in August for the first time in three years.

    Trump has hit China with tariffs as he pushes Beijing to change what he calls unfair trade practices. Earlier Tuesday, he said, “We are doing very well in our negotiations with China” on a deal.

    U.S. and Chinese negotiators are set to meet in September, though they have not set a specific date.

    The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the Treasury Department declined to comment.
     
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    https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/04/trump-not-interested-in-talking-huawei-with-china/
    Trump not interested in talking Huawei with China

    During an Oval Office press conference this week, the President told reports that the United States is currently not interesting in broaching the subject of Huawei as part of increasingly heated trade conversations with China. The statement appears to run counter to pat suggestions that he was willing to discuss the U.S. government’s blacklist of the electronics giant during trade talks.

    “It’s a national security concern,” Trump said. “Huawei is a big concern of our military, of our intelligence agencies, and we are not doing business with Huawei. And we’ll see what happens with respect to China, but Huawei has been not a player that we want to talk about right now.”

    Huawei’s U.S. blacklisting stems from both concerns over potential links to security and spying, as well as alleged sanctions violations. Trump has, however, previously conflated those issues brewing trade war between the superpowers, suggesting that a ban could be lifted with a new U.S.-China deal.

    [​IMG]
    ABC News

    ✔@ABC



    "We are not doing business with Huawei," President Trump says about the Chinese telecom equipment maker. "It will stop almost completely in a very short period of time, and we'll see what happens with respect to China." https://abcn.ws/2zPAAxt


    [​IMG]


    106

    1:20 PM - Sep 4, 2019
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    Recent discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping helped ease restrictions against the company, which could be faced with devastating consequences if a full ban on partnerships with U.S. companies like Google is enacted. Trump also used the question to once again suggest that the toll of tariffs could be avoided if U.S. companies no longer relied on Chinese components and manufacturing.

    The new comments appear to find Trump temporarily closing the door to discussions about Huawei in future meetings with the Chinese President, though he did not elaborate further.
     
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    https://www.ft.com/content/27b0a5e2-dab6-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17


    Trump is serious about US divorce from China

    The phrase “new cold war” should never have been coined. Nothing in the original stand off between the Soviet Union and the US could prepare the global economy for what Donald Trump is demanding of America’s trading partners. Moscow and Washington existed in separate orbits. Now the rest of the world is being asked to make a choice between China and the US, two intimately entwined economies. Nor does the label “trade war” begin to capture the dimensions of what this implies. America’s partners are being pressured to eject Huawei, China’s leading telecoms equipment supplier, from their 5G networks. But Mr Trump’s all-or-nothing ultimatum is by no means confined to Huawei. Almost every Chinese product is now under suspicion of concealing the “Manchurian chip” — backdoor technology that can lie dormant until it is activated. Israel, for example, is being asked to dump a Chinese construction company that is deepening the port of Haifa. It is also under pressure to cut ties with another Chinese contractor that is building a metro in Tel Aviv. Barring commodities such as soyabean or pork, the internet of things makes almost every product a potential dual-use technology in a future US-China conflict. They used to say ploughshares could be converted into swords and vice versa. How about refrigerators? Or children’s toys? Once you start down the road of excluding anything with Chinese-embedded chips, it is hard to know where to stop. The line between legitimate national security concerns and outright paranoia is perilously thin. That line was obliterated at a conference in Paris this week with the misleadingly dull title “International cooperation on artificial intelligence”. In reality the gathering — co-hosted by the Washington-based Atlantic Council — was the first effort to stimulate talks between the US and China on the future of AI, which covers pretty much the future of everything, including warfare. A Trump administration official, whom I cannot name under the gathering’s “Chatham House rule”, opened by declaring that the US would not co-operate with China on AI while it remained authoritarian. Companies around the world had to choose between two AI systems, said the official. One, led by the US, was based on trust and openness. The other, China, was closed and “malicious”. The latter was exporting “authoritarian software” to every continent. A Chinese official responded by saying that the US killed innocent civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan. “Nobody is perfect in human rights,” he said. The exchange almost ended the conference before it began. It offered a troubling foretaste of how much could go wrong between the world’s two great powers. The French co-hosts, which included two former prime ministers, could only make forlorn pleas for dialogue. It is an open question whether Mr Trump will agree to a ceasefire with China in their trade war over the coming weeks. Worries about his re-election prospects in 2020 suggest Mr Trump might go for some kind of truce. Such a deal could even include a brief reprieve for Huawei. Quite how he would sell that one to the increasingly hawkish bipartisan voices back home is another matter. Democrats would be sure to attack him for folding too cheaply. Mr Trump’s short-term actions are unpredictable. But his larger China strategy is unchanging. It is hard to overstate its radicalism. Over the past 40 years, the US has taken a “win-win” approach to China. The more it could be bound into the global economy, the freer its political system would become. Reality has belied that theory. China is considerably less free today than it was in 2001 when it joined the World Trade Organization. Its social credit system, which ranks citizens based on their behaviour, offers an Orwellian vision of how people can be controlled by authoritarian software. Yet its economy is about three times larger than it was then. Mr Trump is thus turning that strategy on its head. We have moved from a “win-win” American vision of globalisation to “win-lose”. In fact, what Mr Trump is pursuing is closer to “lose-lose” — everybody loses if globalisation goes into reverse. Under Mr Trump’s plan, the US ultimately wins because it would lose more slowly than China. The Paris AI gathering this week was supposed to be about the implications of machine learning. A century after the first world war, what it highlighted was the urgent need for human learning. edward.luce@ft.com
     
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    https://www.forbes.com/sites/willys...e-manufacturing-factories-china/#781c4dea4e37

    Companies Are Already Looking For Alternatives To China, But Moving Complex Supply Chains Isn't Easy

    President Trump has “ordered” American companies to immediately start looking for an alternative to China. Most companies that I have talked to are long past debating that question – they have already decided that the trade war is a long-term problem and they have to diversify their manufacturing bases out of China. The problem is moving their supply chains.

    [​IMG]
    A lithium-ion battery inside the rear case of an Apple Inc. iPhone. Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

    © 2018 BLOOMBERG FINANCE LP
    The supply chain of a company is made up of all the suppliers who provide the subsystems and the individual components need to produce a product. In the case of an iPhone, that includes the companies that make the flat-panel displays, who manufacture the applications processors, the cameras, the batteries, various sensors, and critical components like the flexible printed circuits and connectors. It also includes things as simple as the metal housings or the pentalobe screws that make it so hard for a non-Apple repair technicians to open one of its products.

    We typically think of suppliers in “tiers.” My tier 1 suppliers provide me with major components and subsystems; my suppliers’ tier 1s (my tier 2s) in turn feed them, and so on. It is not at all unusual to have five or six tiers or even more. The challenge with this tiering is that it is very hard to keep track of all the tier 3s, tier 4s, and lower down. It’s even harder when you tell them you want to move out of China to wherever your new factory happens to be, because many of them have made significant on the ground investments in buildings, equipment, and trained people, and they aren’t necessarily prepared to move.

    Today In: Industry
    The good news (sort of) is that we have seen this movie before. For many consumer products like electronics or clothing when companies first moved into China in the 1980s and 1990s, companies organized logistics hubs that sourced components from all over the world and kitted them for assembly in China’s newly established special economic zones. Often these hubs were in Hong Kong, which had no customs duties so material could flow in and out easily and quickly. I remember visiting one factory in Dongguan that would order several hundred thousand parts kits for TVs or DVD players from Hong Kong every day. They assembled the product and then sent everything back to Hong Kong for export or to the next step in production.

    Back in those days, if you engaged in this kind of manufacturing in China, you were not allowed to ship product into the Chinese market unless you paid import duties and various taxes. But in a clever move, the Chinese government ruled that if you had greater than 50% local content, you could import into what was then a nascent but fast-growing consumer market. So companies scrambled to find local suppliers. I remember talking to one phone manufacturer who invested heavily to help a Chinese company improve its battery technology, because sourcing Chinese batteries was an easy way to increase the local content quickly. That Chinese battery company today is a world leader.

    PROMOTED



    Localization of the supply chain was one of the major themes of Chinese manufacturing in the early 2000s, and many Tier 1 and 2 suppliers moved or established new factories in China to be close to their customers. The other tiers followed. The result was that by 2010, many products coming out of China had a great deal of local content with only minimal dependence on imports. And for many of those products today, China has become the dominant worldwide source.

    [​IMG]
    The Samsung Electronics Vietnam Co. Plant at Yen Phong Industrial Park in Bac Ninh Province, Vietnam. Samsung Electronics Co. and its affiliate had to build a factory town with hundreds of foreign component suppliers to support its operations there.

    © 2016 BLOOMBERG FINANCE LP
    And that is the bad news. The process of moving production out of China will be expensive and it will take time. When supply chains moved into China, the cost savings that manufacturers realized could easily cover the cost of localization. That will likely not be the case today. More likely, moving production to Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, or somewhere else may mean more expensive materials that have to be imported (probably from China), training new labor and management, and higher costs that come from a loss of scale efficiencies when production is divided between China and the new location.

    I have spent several weeks over the last month traveling around East and South Asia, visiting factories and logistics operations, and talking to many business leaders. One CEO that I spoke with described the new world order as one in which country of origin is an important feature of the product. This is reminiscent of the days of the Multi-Fiber Agreement when manufacturers shipped clothing to be finished in different countries who had unfilled import quotas that enabled them to ship into the United States market. I think we are headed for a world of regionalized manufacturing in which production location choices will be based as much on political as on economic choices.

    So I don’t think the President needs to convince companies anymore. Almost everyone knows they have to do something if a Chinese factory is somewhere in their supply chain. But also remember many of today’s managers have grown up in the relatively benign trading environment of the past three decades. They aren’t used to this kind of instability and uncertainty around trade. As we move into the next chapter of globalization, a lot of people will be trying to figure it out.
     
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    https://www.ft.com/content/a263d2c6-e13e-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

    Trump administration considers ban on Chinese listings in US
    Measure is one option as advisers debate expanding trade war into capital markets


    Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found here.
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    James Politi in Washington and Peter Wells and Colby Smith in New York 47 MINUTES AGOPrint this page0 The White House is weighing a plan to stop Chinese companies listing on US exchanges in a move that would take its trade war with China to Wall Street. President Donald Trump’s advisers are exploring steps to limit financial investments between the US and China, according to people briefed on the plans. Other options include curbing the ability of US government pension funds to buy Chinese equities. Beijing is preparing to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China with a national celebration next week and is due to have new trade talks with the US in October. A widening of the US-China economic conflict into the arena of capital markets has long been pushed by hawks in Washington, particularly Marco Rubio, the Republican senator from Florida, and like-minded officials within the administration. But it has been resisted by other Trump advisers who fear that it could deal a fresh blow to markets and undermine investor confidence. As of February this year, 156 Chinese companies with a total market capitalisation of $1.2tn were listed on the biggest US stock exchanges, according to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, with at least 11 of them being state-owned. The administration’s move, which was first reported by Bloomberg, prompted a sharp fall in the shares of New York-listed Chinese companies and a weakening of the renminbi. Recommended Asia-Pacific economy Asia’s emerging economies are winning US-China trade war Shortly after the report, Alibaba shares were down 4 per cent and Baidu dropped 2 per cent. The depository receipts of Tencent and online retailer JD.com were down 2 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. China’s renminbi, traded in offshore foreign exchange markets outside the mainland, weakened by as much as 0.4 per cent, a sizeable move for the currency, but tempered that decline to be 0.2 per cent softer at 7.14 per US dollar at 1pm New York time. After a flurry of tariff escalations rattled markets in August, US and Chinese officials have been exploring ways to reduce tensions ahead of next month’s new round of talks. US and Japan announce details of new trade deal Potential capital markets restrictions by the US would come in the wake of China’s decision this month to scrap caps on foreign investors’ purchases of domestic stocks and bonds. Action by the Trump administration could therefore stymie the potential flow of international capital into the Asian country. “If this most extreme retaliation takes place, we will see the potential for additional escalation,” said Cesar Rojas, Citigroup global economist. “This is another negotiation strategy. It is showing what would be the cost of not co-operating with the US and not giving in to concessions.” If the US decides to proceed, designing the specific measures to restrict Chinese access to US capital markets will not be simple, and could be challenged. “I don't think it's as simple as turning off the spigot,” said Patrick Healy, chief executive of Issuer Network, a listings consultant. “The exchange has to cite why the company is being delisted and the company gets a chance to contest the delisting.”
     
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