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本帖由 99812018-05-04 发布。版面名称:渥太华华人论坛

  1. 9981

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    冷笑九声早就说过, 留着半死不活比死了更好处理,不过中国人忍受能力之强也可见一斑, 你能想象俄国公司会这么忍着么?
     
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    https://business.financialpost.com/...hes-china-trade-war-to-the-point-of-no-return

    Trump’s $200-billion tariff barrage pushes China trade war to the point of no return

    'What's next is not so much a trade war or even a cold war as the dawn of an ice age in relations between China and the United States'


    U.S. President Donald Trump is pushing his trade conflict with China toward a point where neither side can back down.

    By Aug. 30, as the U.S. nears mid-term elections vital for Trump’s legislative agenda, the White House will be ready to impose 10 per cent tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese-made products, ranging from clothing to television parts to refrigerators. The levies announced Tuesday — together with some US$50 billion already in the works — stand to raise import prices on almost half of everything the U.S. buys from the Asian nation.

    China has seven weeks to make a deal or dig in and try to outlast the U.S. leader. President Xi Jinping, facing his own political pressures to look tough, has vowed to respond blow-for-blow. He’s already imposed retaliatory duties targeting Trump’s base including Iowa soybeans and Kentucky bourbon.

    Yet matching the latest U.S. barrage would force China to either levy much higher tariffs or take more disruptive steps like cancelling purchase orders, encouraging consumer boycotts and putting up regulatory hurdles. Not only does that risk provoking Trump to follow through on threats to tax virtually all Chinese products, it could unleash nationalist sentiment on both sides that fuels a deeper struggle for geopolitical dominance.

    Trump on Wednesday framed his trade actions as necessary to shield American businesses and farmers from harmful trading practices


    “Other countries’ trade barriers and tariffs have been destroying their businesses. I will open things up, better than ever before, but it can’t go too quickly,” Trump said in a Twitter post from Brussels, where he’s attending a NATO summit. “I am fighting for a level playing field for our farmers, and will win!”

    “It’s already past the point of no return,” said Pauline Loong, managing director at research firm Asia-Analytica in Hong Kong. “What’s next is not so much a trade war or even a cold war as the dawn of an ice age in relations between China and the United States.”

    Stocks fell, the dollar gained and commodities slid with emerging-market assets Wednesday as investors assessed the fallout. Futures on the S&P 500 were down 0.6 per cent as of 7:14 a.m. in New York and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 1.1 per cent. While earlier tariffs were expected to have only a limited impact, economists warn a full-blown trade war could derail the strongest economic upswing in years.

    The Chinese Commerce Ministry said Tuesday that it would be forced to retaliate against what it called “totally unacceptable” U.S. tariffs. There have been no confirmed high-level talks between to two sides since early an early June visit to Beijing by U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross that achieved no breakthroughs.



    Pauline Loong
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Beijing “never yields to threat or blackmail” and will retaliate against the “groundless” tariffs, China’s Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen said in written comments to Bloomberg. “The U.S. side ignored the progress, adopted unilateral and protectionist measures, and started the trade war.”

    The Aug. 30 date ensures the trade fight features prominently in November’s U.S. congressional elections, and the announcement exposed fissures between Trump and his Republican Party about the strategy. House Ways and Means Committee chief Kevin Brady, of Texas, warned of “a long, multi-year trade war between the two largest economies in the world that engulfs more and more of the globe.”

    “Despite the serious economic consequences of ever-increasing tariffs, today there are no serious trade discussions occurring between the U.S. and China, no plans for trade negotiations anytime soon, and seemingly little action toward a solution,” Brady said. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch, of Utah, called the new levies “reckless” and not “targeted.”

    The latest move suggests that Trump — who in March declared that “trade wars are good and easy to win” — may be compromising on his pledge to spare consumers from the pain. The tariffs could raise the price of everything from baseball gloves to handbags to digital cameras just voters are heading to the polls. Other high-profile items such as mobile phones have so far been spared.

    UNFAIR PRACTICES
    The U.S. felt it had no choice, but to move forward on the new tariffs after China failed to respond to the administration’s concerns over unfair trade practices and Beijing’s abuse of American intellectual property, according to two senior officials who spoke to reporters. The Trump administration has so far rejected Chinese offers to trim its massive trade surplus by buying more American goods, and is demanding more systemic change.

    “For over a year, the Trump administration has patiently urged China to stop its unfair practices, open its market, and engage in true market competition,” Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a statement. “China has not changed its behaviour — behaviour that puts the future of the U.S. economy at risk.”

    Although the looming elections provide an immediate concern for Trump, a trade war poses a more existential concern for Xi, whose Communist Party has built its legitimacy on economic success. Prominent academics and some government officials have begun to question if China’s slowing, trade-dependent economy can withstand a sustained attack from Trump, which has already weighed heavily on stock prices.

    [​IMG]
    Chinese-made teddy bears carrying American hit movie Avengers characters are displayed inside an arcade game at a shopping mall in Beijing, Wednesday, July 11, 2018. China’s government has criticized the latest U.S. threat of a tariff hike as “totally unacceptable” and vowed to retaliate in their escalating trade war. Andy Wong/AP Photo
    Among other things, the U.S. is asking China to roll back its “Made-in-China 2025” program, a signature Xi initiative to dominate several strategic industries, such as semiconductors to aerospace development. Since abolishing presidential term limits, Xi has strengthened his control over the levers of power and money in China and can’t afford to look weak.

    “China is showing no signs of backing down and instead looks like it is preparing for a drawn out conflict,” said Scott Kennedy, deputy director of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “China has a million and one ways to retaliate.”

    –With assistance from Jenny Leonard , Andrew Mayeda and Bryce Baschuk.
     
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    https://site.6parker.com/finance/index.php?app=forum&act=threadview&tid=14062827

    《我不是药神》背后的药价药策
    送交者: 苦难与荣耀[太守★☆] 于 2018-07-10 15:14 已读 252 次 [​IMG]


    A.

    进口药的中国成本

    。。。

    但是,进口原研药成本高,并不足以解释为什么在中国大陆,它们卖得要比高收入的发达国家还要贵。

    。。。

    事实上,我们能够买到的进口药,还有第二份中国专属的研发成本。

    按照《药品注册管理办法》,进口药物即使已经在国外安全上市了多年,但如果想要进入中国,必须重新进行临床试验。临床试验是一个烧钱的事,需要收集大量临床数据,动辄耗时三五年。

    根据2012年北京大陆药业公司披露的数据,在中国进行三期临床试验的成本大约是300-700万美元,而在多数国家,进口药物是不需要重新进行临床实验的。

    不少国家为了节约成本、缩短研发时间,直接将美国药监局批准的药拿来就用,而中国并不承认美国药监局的数据。

    。。。

    因此,不难理解,为什么近十年来,全球15家最大的跨国医药集团需要持续在中国投入庞大的科研支出,每年的增幅就达22.5%。

    这些多出来的科研投入、行政支出,势必最终要病床上的中国患者来买单。





    药物研发、审批完毕,钱花了一大堆,但离在临床上与病人相遇,还有漫长的道路。

    2013年人民日报的调查报道发现,治疗乳腺癌的赫赛汀,在大陆要卖24500元,而香港药房的最低报价约合人民币14800元,一江之隔,每盒药价格相差近一万元。

    同年9月7日,在北大卫生经济论坛上,国家发改委价格司副巡视员郭剑英解释了为什么大陆80%的进口原研药价格会高于香港:

    “香港没有5%的关税和17%的增值税,没有15%的医院加价,流转费用也不会达到20%多。”

    一直以来,大陆对绝大部分进口药物收取5%左右的关税。今年4月23日,国务院关税税则委员会发布公告,宣布5月1日起,28种进口药实行零关税政策。

    《我不是药神》的结尾字幕,也十分骄傲地向观众宣布这则好消息。

    。。。

    根据欧洲制药工业协会联合会(EFPIA)2017年公布的数据,多数受调查的欧洲国家都对药品实行了免收或少收增值税的政策。英国、美国、澳大利亚的药物增值税为0%,而中国对药品征收的增值税一分不少,和普通商品一样都是17%。



    层层加价

    去年7月1日,全国开始实行药物零加成政策,取消了几十年来医院约定俗成的15%药物加价。但这个政策影响的,主要是医院采购的国产药物,而非进口药。

    许多进口药已经进入医院内部的自费药房,而自费药房不受“零加成政策”约束,可以保持15%的加价。

    。。。

    以上还都是透明的合法加价,从出厂到抵达患者手中,药物的流通,还需要巨大的灰色成本。

    。。。

    无独有偶,辉瑞后,英国葛兰素史克、法国赛诺菲也相继在中国爆出了行贿丑闻。

    2013年,英国葛兰素史克被立案侦查的高管梁宏估计,药企运营在药价中所占的比重高达20%到30%,至于“上下打点”的成本占到多少,虽然没有精确数字,但占比非常之大。

    “注册方面要和药监总局打交道,药价上要和国家发改委打交道,进医保要和劳社部打交道,进医院要和各地招标办以及医院的院长、药剂科主任打交道。”

    (这些行贿成本最终也转嫁给患者)



    进口药的超国民待遇

    要想知道进口药为什么会这么贵,我们必须明白进口药的价格是怎么样定的、上面说到的巨额成本,是怎么分摊到患者头上的。

    2000年,国家发改委颁布了《药品政府定价办法》,规定“原研药”可以给予单独定价权。这是什么意思呢?国产药物通常有政府指导价,但是进口药中占大多数的“原研药”的价格,是由医药公司自己定的。

    处于专利保护期内的原研药可以自主定价,这是全球通行的规矩。然而,在中国,这个单独定价权还有一个优越之处:

    即使原研药20年的专利保护期过了,医药公司依然可以享受单独定价的优惠政策,不需要遵循政府的指导定价。

    这就是业内光被人诟病的进口药的所谓“超国民待遇”。

    摘自中国数字时代:《我不是药神》错在了哪-墙外楼



    B.

    问:格列卫到底有多贵?

    答:为降低病情复发,慢粒白血病和胃肠间质瘤患者须终身服药。诺华格列卫2001年第一次引入中国至今,价格一直是23500元一盒,一盒为一个月服用剂量。诺华从未降过价,只是根据病人的经济能力,2006年在中国推行买三赠九等相关的优惠,但病人一年的经济负担仍然超过了7万,掏空了很多中国老百姓的家底。

    问:格列卫在其他国家的价格怎么样?

    格列卫在中国的价格是全球最高的。在国外的情况,我没有切实的数据,但媒体的报道,格列卫在中国香港的价格为17000,美国为13600,澳大利亚为10000左右,在日本16000,韩国约为3000元(另说9700元),以上都是人民币(6.6130, -0.0265, -0.40%)为单位。但是考虑到各国的医保政策,实际上患者的负担非常小,比如澳大利亚医保居民的价格每盒只有不到200元人民币。

    问:这种药为什么在中国是全球最贵?

    答:这个问题太难回答了,超出了我的能力。但是,有信息显示,很多跨国公司生产的这种专利药来到中国往往就成了全球最贵的药。在价格这个利益传导的链条上到处都是吸血鬼,价格低了,他们没有利益。比如在流通环节上,据报道,国外药物到达中国医院这前至少要经过三层经销商的“盘剥”,每一层平均加价5%-7%,而医院还要加价10%-15%.。.

    问:印度药有多便宜?药效如何?

    答:通过各种网络渠道,基本上1000元能拿到。但是,最近被抓的陆勇,他与印度药厂直接洽谈,以团购的方式竟然把药价压到了200元一盒,可见药物本身的成本是非常低。在中国的医院里,医生都是断然拒绝向患者推荐印度药物的。但是,有些药物专业的朋友告诉我,印度仿制药药效本身没有任何问题,仿制药物本身也没有难度。陆勇在改吃印度药之后进行连续监测,发现身体的各项指标与诺华的药几乎相同。韩国白血病协会拿印度和瑞士两种格列卫做过对比检测,结果显示药性相似度99.9%。

    低廉的价格,近乎相同的药效,印度仿制药成了中国病人的救星。

    问:为什么这种药物在印度是合法的?

    答:印度这个国家真的是一个道义国家。对了,还是回到这个问题上,核心的回答是,印度实行了强制专利许可:指在国家出现紧急状态时或为了公共利益,对取得专利权的药品,可以不经专利权人的同意,由政府授予、许可其他企业使用。所以印度的药厂可以进行仿制,印度的做法引起了西方药厂的极大不满,但是印度政府顶住了强大的压力一一驳回这些公司的诉讼,这一点据说都受到了联合国[微博]秘书长潘基文的点赞。

    问:有什么办法改变这种局面吗?

    答:让诺华降价,13亿人的巨大市场跟这些西方药厂去谈判,他们肯定会低头。另外,政府可以直接去采购药物,省去物流成本。另外,2008年底修改过的《中华人民共和国专利法》也已经明确规定,为了公共健康目的,对取得专利权的药品……可以给予强制许可。然而到目前为止,国家知识产权局没有收到一例专利强制许可的申请。我们为什么不能强制许可一次呢?

    不然就实行医保报销,但是,国内很少有几个省份这样做。

    -摘自 救命药中国卖2万印度卖200元 患者称想病去印度_格列卫_医保_印度_新浪财经_新浪网



    C.

    为什么格列卫在中国售价高?因为中国定价与其他国家不同。中国药品定价分为三类,一类是政府定价(如疫苗),一类是市场调节,还有一类是政府指导价,形式为最高零售价限价,包括统一定价和单独定价,而专利药都属于单独定价,所以他们可以随意定价,价格自然就高了。

    摘自为什么国内格列卫价格高于其他国家【康安途海外医疗】



    D.

    而随着诺华格列卫用于白血病症的专利在2013年到期,国内药企目前已有替代药品上市,价格在3000元左右,这一价格仍比印度仿制药价格高出十几倍。

    摘自三问天价抗癌药格列卫:救命药为啥要这么贵?_网易财经



    E.

    印度的仿制药被官方判定为“假药”,患者无法合法购买。因为根据我国《药品管理法》规定,进口药需要经过临床监测,还要拿药品进口注册证号才是真药。虽然在印度属于合法生产、销售的正规药品,却未经我国药品监管部门批准销售,因此也可以被视为“假药”。另外中国也不允许国内药厂生产仿制药。

    而对于格列卫,只有部分省市的患者可报销药费70%以上。比如,河北、河南、山西、安徽等地,均将慢性粒细胞白血病纳入新农合重大疾病保障救助,患者药费最高可由医保基金支付80%。江苏省于2013年4月将格列卫纳入医保支付范围,城镇职工医保和城镇居民医保报销比例为75%。

    摘自《我不是药神》中2万2的神药格列卫,澳洲人只要花192人民币! _ 今日悉尼



    F.

    明暗回扣环环相扣 特殊环境催高药价

    国内正规进口的抗癌药价格高昂,还与中国医药领域的高回扣有关。“哪个企业不给医院回扣,不出三个月肯定倒闭。”一位医药销售公司亚太地区负责人接受媒体采访时说,救人性命的抗癌药,被当作医药界最有价值的摇钱树,高回扣、高药价的问题更突出。

    按照规定,内地医院可在实际购进价的基础上加价10%-15%。一位研究药品定价的人士说,“中国内地比较特别,还有制度成本,只要你不改它,它一定会加到药价上去。”此外,从药物出厂定价,走到医院药房,中间的环节渠道存在太多的灰色空间。

    “如果把15%的药品加成拿走,好多医院都活不了,因为政府只给医院5%的财政支出。以药养医是政府的问题,不是医院的问题,也不是医生的问题。”北京肿瘤医院主任医师张晓东对媒体记者表示。

    如果15%的价格是明的回扣,而在实际操作中,暗的回扣也时有发生。据媒体公开报道,进口药的回扣还表现在各种巧妙的手段上,“回访会”、“有奖征文”、“学术会议”以及冠冕堂皇的“教育资助基金”等如今都已成为敏感字眼。

    摘自诺华抗癌药格列卫中国最贵,谁的责任?



    G.

    中国红十字会旗下组织一位前高管李塬称,这个电影上映档期,本来就有中国官方配合贸易战的意图。。。

    李塬还表示,所有的外国进口专利药,定价权实际都在中国政府(发改委),他们禁止专利药在中国低价销售,其目的就是变相限制销售量。

    而中国红十字医疗救助部原部长任瑞红即明确表示,在她为癌症患者代购印度仿制药的核心志愿者团队里,就有10个人被抓。其他的代购人和患者被抓的,有上百人。在2011年的春节前严打中,海关扣留了所有来自印度的代购仿制药,造成了很多患者病情恶化死亡。

    。。。

    任瑞红还透露,电影将民众买不起药的责任推给外国药企的专利保护,实际上只是因为如果不这样根本就不能通过审查。据她本人在职期间和这些企业沟通显示,是中国政府不许他们低价销售。

    。。。

    为此,本台记者致电曾负责进口药品定价的国家发改委价格司,该机构人士称,目前药品定价权已移交给今年5月刚挂牌的国家医疗保障局,所以他不能再回答该问题。

    而国家医保局迄今为止没有公开其办公电话。

    。。。

    中国政府对药品实行政府定价,对进口专利药亦实行严格的价格管控。中国官方宣布从今年5月1日对进口抗癌药实施0关税,但在官方的实际掌控下,价格并没有真正降低。外国药企曾以买3赠9的方式降低患者的负担,但类似的救助方式也遭官方严格管控。
     
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    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/pet...-between-china-and-the-rest-of-the-world.html

    Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro: 'Zero-sum game' between China and the rest of the world
    • Peter Navarro, one of President Donald Trump's top trade advisors, said China is in a "zero-sum game" with the rest of the world when it comes to trade.
    • "We have to defend ourselves," Navarro told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Thursday.
    Mike Calia | @Michael_Calia
    Published 9 Hours Ago Updated 7 Hours AgoCNBC.com

    [​IMG]
    Peter Navarro: President Trump has always had a clear strategy 7 Hours Ago | 08:27

    Peter Navarro, one of President Donald Trump's top trade advisors, said Thursday that China is in a "zero-sum game" with the rest of the world when it comes to trade.

    Talking to CNBC's Joe Kernen on "Squawk Box, he argued that the U.S. needs to protect its interests in rapidly developing technologies.

    "This is our future," Navarro said, citing artificial intelligence, robotics and high-tech industries – all of which are Chinese priorities for the next decade, as well.

    "Unfortunately, it's a zero-sum game now between China and the rest of the world, and what we need to do as a country is to work with the rest of the world" to ensure prosperity and high stock markets, he said.

    Navarro is known for his hawkish economic stances on China. Under Trump, the U.S. has engaged in an escalating trade war with China, as both nations have imposed and threatened billions of dollars of tariffs on each other's products.

    "We have to defend ourselves," Navarro said, citing alleged Chinese theft of U.S. intellectual property on technology. "They're attacking our crown jewels. They make no bones about it."

    Recently, Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on $200 billion of products from China as the U.S. pushes the Asian country to take a harder line on protecting intellectual property, particularly for technology.

    Larry Kudlow, Trump's top economic advisor, said Wednesday that Chinese President Xi Jinping was holding up progress and refusing to budge over his country's trade policies. In turn, China's Foreign Ministry denounced Kudlow's remarks as "bogus" and "beyond imagination."
     
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    https://www.npr.org/2018/07/20/630778994/trump-is-ready-to-go-all-in-on-trade-war-with-china

    Trump Is Ready To Go All In On Trade War With China

    President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on every product imported from China, dialing up the pressure in the growing trade dispute between the world's two economic superpowers.

    In an interview with CNBC broadcast this morning, Trump said "we're down a tremendous amount," referring to the trade imbalance between the US and China. "I'm ready to go to 500."

    The U.S. imported $505 billion worth of goods from China in 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. exported $130 billion worth of goods to China.

    In the interview, which was recorded Thursday, Trump also indicated his willingness to endure stock market volatility as he pursues an aggressive trade agenda with China. Asked about the potential of a market downturn over his trade policies, he said: "If it does, it does. Look, I'm not doing this for politics."

    He said the United States is "being taken advantage of, and I don't like it." Trump's views on issues such as guns and abortion have shifted throughout his public life, but on trade he has been a consistent protectionist, dating back to the 1980s.

    [​IMG]
    ECONOMY
    Trump Slams Interest Rate Hikes, Ignoring Hands-Off Tradition Toward Fed

    That kind of direct criticism breaks with a longstanding tradition that presidents refrain from even commenting on Fed policy While it is part of the U.S. government, the Fed is considered to be independent, keeping it free from political pressure.

    [​IMG]
    Donald J. Trump

    ✔@realDonaldTrump



    ....The United States should not be penalized because we are doing so well. Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals. Debt coming due & we are raising rates - Really?

    8:51 AM - Jul 20, 2018
    Twitter Ads info and privacy

    Later in the day a White House spokeswoman said the president "respects the independence of the Fed."

    But Trump was back at it this morning in a tweet that again slammed the Fed's monetary policy: " ... Tightening now hurts all that we have done. The U.S. should be allowed to recapture what was lost due to illegal currency manipulation and BAD Trade Deals."
     
  6. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    说了那么多,不就是中国货全加25%关税么。
     
  7. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    加到一定程度, 加25%和加250%结果是一样的。
     
  8. 飞来客

    飞来客 本站元老 ID:64158 VIP

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    洋毛出在羊身上,也就是说Walmart 卖的东西,几乎都会涨25%的价。闯王能不能MAGA还不知道,但遭殃的是屁民,确实是实实在在的。
     
  9. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    中国出口美国的商品占出口总额的19%。
     
  10. 9981

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    为什么不是30%, 35%, 这数字本来就是算出来可以有替代产品的, 大老
     
  11. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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  12. 9981

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    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-13/china-needs-to-understand-trump-s-not-alone

    What China Needs to Understand About Trump
    He’s only voicing a widely shared resentment about Chinese double-dealing in economic policy.

    By
    Penny Pritzker

    Read more opinionFollow @PennyPritzker on Twitter

    It was late November 2016, and my Chinese counterpart, Vice Premier Wang Yang, was visiting Washington, D.C. Over the course of my tenure as U.S. Secretary of Commerce, the vice premier and I had developed a warm and candid relationship. Since this was to be our last official meeting, I decided to do something a bit different: take him to rural Virginia for a traditional Thanksgiving meal.

    While we were surrounded by our usual phalanx of security, we effectively sat alone, with the exception of our two closest aides. Shortly after we were seated, the vice premier leaned in close and almost whispered to me, “Can you explain what just happened in your presidential election?” Clearly, the Chinese were just as surprised by the results as we were.



    I told the vice premier that we were still trying to understand the outcome ourselves, but that it was important for him to appreciate that China had played a significant role in the election. As the translator spoke into his ear, he shot me a somewhat surprised look. I explained that then-candidate Donald Trump’s “tough on China” rhetoric had tapped into an underlying strain of thought in the U.S. that Wang and other Chinese leaders needed to understand.



    For years, Americans were told that China was a developing country and shouldn’t necessarily be held to the same standard as developed nations such as the U.S. But China’s success had severely undercut that line of reasoning. The Chinese economy was growing at 6 percent or more annually. Chinese cities, roads, ports and bridges were rising seemingly overnight. The world’s low-cost manufacturer was rapidly becoming a global technology hub. And the Chinese government was investing billions of renminbi in support of its “Made in China 2025” industrial plan. The disconnect between rhetoric and reality was profound and growing by the day.



    At the same time, Americans felt that at least some of China’s success had come at their expense. They were seeing their middle-class jobs and once-prosperous lifestyles disappearing. China wasn’t playing fairly; it was consistently violating its international commitments and tilting the playing field to advantage Chinese firms. Economic complexities aside, the fact that Americans were, in part, paying the bill for such behavior had begun to sink in with millions of my fellow citizens.

    Candidate Trump, of course, didn’t create these imbalances; he was simply very effective at tapping into this growing resentment. With or without Trump, the U.S.-China relationship was moving quickly toward a crossroads.

    The point I was making to the vice premier is that, as China has risen to become a global power, the dynamic between the two countries has unquestionably changed. Meanwhile, too many Chinese actions and policies have not.

    In fact, Chinese officials still frequently rely on the outdated rhetoric that China is merely a developing country. The developing nation narrative is clearly at odds with the observable reality of modern China, and it logically runs counter to China’s lofty goal of establishing a “new model of great power relations” between the U.S. and China — a dynamic focused on fostering cooperation and competition but avoiding confrontation, which, historically, has been the defining feature of relations between existing and rising powers.

    It is hard to be both a poor, developing nation and the other party to a “new model of great power relations.” The formulation assumes the existence of two great powers. In the modern world, though, being a great power requires leadership. It requires being a good steward of the global economy, not just benefiting from it. It requires playing by the same rules and competing fairly, not relying on state resources to support domestic industries and innovation. If China wants to be the world’s other great power, it is manifestly in its interest to start acting like one.

    To be fair, we have seen China emerge as a global leader on certain issues — such as climate — and, in recent months, President Xi Jinping has spoken consistently about China assuming a larger role in world affairs. In other areas, however, particularly those tied to economic and trade policy, the rhetoric continues to surpass the policies.

    In part, it was this disconnect between words and reality that gave Trump his political resonance in the U.S. China is a great power. China has risen and, in so doing, has lifted 800 million people out of poverty. But, if China doesn’t change its approach to economic competition, I fear that today’s trade war will be nothing compared to the heightened tensions to come. Frankly, our domestic political system will demand action and President Trump will look like the mild first incarnation of a trend rather than an outlier.

    The irony, of course, is that in so many important respects the economic and personal ties between the U.S. and China are deeper than ever:

    • The U.S. hosted roughly 130,000 Chinese graduate students during the 2016-2017 academic year. On average, each of those Chinese students spends more than $26,000 per year in the U.S.
    • Chinese direct investment in the U.S. expanded dramatically to $46 billion in 2016, before a steep decline in 2017. That investment has hyper-charged a range of sectors in all corners of our country.
    • In less than 10 years, spending from Chinese tourists in the U.S. has more than quadrupled to over $20 billion annually. Xi and then-President Barack Obama agreed to offer new 10-year tourist visas to citizens of both countries, so we can expect that number to grow.
    In large part, China’s progress wouldn’t have been possible without the stable global economic order that the U.S. has underwritten and secured for the last 70 years. In that time, this system has limited conflict and led to the greatest increase in prosperity the world has ever seen. Without question, particularly over the last two decades, China has reaped the benefits of this rules-based order not just by competing aggressively but, it must be said, at times exploiting the existing system. That must change.

    If it doesn’t, I fear that the stated goal of this “new model of great power relations” — competitive cooperation — will fall victim to China’s inability to change course. Then the politically plausible options for navigating China’s rise over the decades to come will be narrowed down to one: confrontation
     
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    http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2018/08/14/7531178.html

    美国前商务部长透露秘辛 要中国认清冲突根源(图)
    文章来源: 中央社 于 2018-08-14 08:17:12 - 新闻取自各大新闻媒体,新闻内容并不代表本网立场!
    打印本新闻(被阅读 20146 次)
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    美国商务前部长普里茨克(Penny Pritzker)。 欧新社

    美中贸易紧张升温,前美国商务部长普里茨克表示,她一年多前就已告诉中国副总理汪洋美中之间潜在冲突的真正根源,如今再不改善,日后局面会凸显今日的贸易战根本就是小事。

    普里茨克(Penny Pritzker)是投资顾问公司PSPPartners的创办人,曾于2013到2017年出任美国商务部长。她在彭博(Blommberg)撰文指出,2016年11月底汪洋造访华府,有鉴于这是两人最后一次官方身分会晤,因此她决定带汪洋到维吉尼亚乡下参加一场传统的感恩节餐叙。

    普里茨克表示,席间汪洋曾悄声问她为何美国大选会是川普胜出,显然也跟美国人一样对结果感到意外。她除告诉对方美国人自己也在找答案外,其实中国对这个结果“贡献良多”。

    她说,当汪洋从翻译口中听到她所说的话后,出现某种诧异表情,于是她解释,川普的“对中强硬”论调不过是藉美国人潜藏的不安想法来发挥,汪洋与其他中国领导人必须了解这点。

    普里茨克指出,美国人多年来被告知中国只是开发中国家,不应拿像美国这类已开发国家的标准来对待,但中国的成功发展令前述理由不攻自破。中国每年的经济成长在6%以上,城市、道路、港口、桥梁等仿佛一夜之间冒出,原本的世界廉价制造工厂摇身变成全球科技枢纽,现实与中国说法间的落差日益加深。

    在此同时,美国人觉得,至少中国的某些成功是建立在美国付出的代价上。美国人看到中产阶级的职缺与曾有的富裕生活正在消失,而中国的作法不公,持续违反国际承诺、破坏游戏规则图利自家企业。撇开复杂的经济不谈,美国人某种程度是搬砖头砸自己的脚,害到上百万自己人。

    普里茨克说,其实有无川普,美中关系都快速移向十字路口,于是她当下告诉汪洋,中国已崛起为全球强权,美中间的动态平衡无疑会改变,而期间中国很多行动与政策却付之阙如。

    她直言“我担心比起日后将到来的高度紧张,今日的美中贸易战根本不算什么”。

    她表示,从大面向看,中国不大可能在脱离美国过去70年来所奠定的全球稳定经济秩序下取得飞跃发展,特别是过去20年,中国无疑是从这个体系下得利,必须得说,当下压榨现行体系的作法必须改变。

    普里茨克表示,倘若中国不改变,她担心中国所追求、既竞争又合作的“新型态大国关系”恐难实现,今后数十年对应中国崛起的看似合理选项将缩小到只剩一个:对抗。
     
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    https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/preliminary-us-mexico-trade-deal-uncertain-trump-freeland-1.4801470
    Preliminary U.S.-Mexico trade deal leaves trail of questions unanswered for Canada

    Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Freeland heads to Washington today in effort to restart negotiations
    The Associated Press · Posted: Aug 28, 2018 8:43 AM ET | Last Updated: 4 hours ago

    [​IMG]U.S. President Donald Trump attends a meeting in the Cabinet Room at the White House on Monday. Trump was quick to proclaim an apparent breakthrough in trade talks with Mexico as a triumph, but many questions remain over the future of NAFTA. (Leah Millis/Reuters)


    U.S. President Donald Trump's declaration of victory Monday in reaching a preliminary deal with Mexico to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement raised at least as many questions as it answered.

    Can Canada, the third member country in NAFTA and America's No. 2 trading partner, be coaxed or coerced into a new pact?

    If not, is it even legal — or politically feasible — for Trump to reach a replacement trade deal with Mexico alone?

    And will the changes being negotiated to the 24-year-old NAFTA threaten the operations of companies that have built sophisticated supply chains that span the three countries?

    "There are still a lot of questions left to be answered," said Peter MacKay, former minister of justice, defence and foreign affairs, who is now a partner at the law firm Baker McKenzie. "There is still a great deal of uncertainty — trepidation, nervousness, a feeling that we are on the outside looking in."

    Trump was quick to proclaim the agreement a triumph, pointing to Monday's surge in the stock market, which was fuelled in part by the apparent breakthrough with Mexico.

    "We just signed a trade agreement with Mexico, and it's a terrific agreement for everybody," the president declared. "It's an agreement that a lot of people said couldn't be done."

    Freeland bound for Washington
    Trump suggested that he might leave Canada out of a new agreement. He said he wanted to call the revamped trade pact "the United States-Mexico Trade Agreement" because, in his view, NAFTA has earned a reputation for being harmful to American workers.

    But first, he said, he would give Canada a chance to get back in — "if they'd like to negotiate fairly." To intensify the pressure on Ottawa to agree to his terms, the president threatened to impose new taxes on Canadian auto imports.

    Oops...
    The clip we tried to show you isn't available.

    Error 1With outgoing Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto on speakerphone, U.S. President Donald Trump announces U.S.-Mexico deal and says he'll invite Canada to negotiate 'fairly' to join it. 1:17
    Canada's NAFTA negotiator, Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, is cutting short a trip to Europe to fly to Washington on Tuesday to try to restart talks.

    "We will only sign a new NAFTA that is good for Canada and good for the middle class," said Adam Austen, a spokesperson for Freeland, saying "Canada's signature is required."

    Talking to reporters, the top White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, urged Canada to "come to the table."

    "Let's make a great deal like we just made with Mexico," Kudlow said. "If not, the U.S.A. may have to take action."

    Trilateral agreement 'imperative'
    Critics denounced the prospect of cutting Canada out a North American trade pact, in part because of the risks it could pose for companies involved in international trade. Many manufacturers have built vital supply systems that depend on freely crossing all NAFTA borders.

    Noting the "massive amount of movement of goods between the three countries and the integration of operations," Jay Timmons, president of that U.S. National Association of Manufacturers, said "it is imperative that a trilateral agreement be inked."

    Trump has frequently condemned the 24-year-old NAFTA trade pact as a job-killing "disaster" for American workers. NAFTA reduced most trade barriers between the three countries. The president and other critics say the pact encouraged U.S. manufacturers to move south of the border to exploit low-wage Mexican labour.


    [​IMG]U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, front left, and Mexican Secretary of Economy Idelfonso Guajardo, front right, walk to the White House on Monday ahead of Trump's announcement. (Luis Alonso Lugo/Associated Press)
    The preliminary deal with Mexico might bring more manufacturing to the United States. Yet it is far from final. Even after being formally signed, it would have be ratified by lawmakers in each country.

    The U.S. Congress wouldn't vote on it until next year — after November midterm elections that could end Republican control of the House of Representatives. But initially, it looks like at least a tentative public relations victory for Trump, the week after his former campaign manager was convicted on financial crimes and his former personal attorney implicated him in hush money payments to two women who allege they had affairs with Trump.

    Before the administration began negotiating a new NAFTA a year ago, it had notified Congress that it was beginning talks with Canada and Mexico. So Monday's announcement raises the question: Is the administration authorized to reach a deal with only one of those countries?

    Republicans cautious
    A senior administration official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, said yes: The administration can tell Congress it had reached a deal with Mexico — and that Canada is welcome to join.

    But other analysts said the answer wasn't clear: "It's a question that has never been tested," said Lori Wallach, director of the left-leaning Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch.

    Mexico will have a difficult time selling 'Trump's deal' back home if Canada does not think it is a good deal.- Daniel Ujczo , trade lawyer
    Even a key Trump ally, Rep. Kevin Brady, the Texas Republican who chairs the House ways and means committee, expressed caution about Monday's apparent breakthrough. Brady said he looked forward "to carefully analyzing the details and consulting in the weeks ahead to determine whether the new proposal meets the trade priorities set out by Congress."

    And the No. 2 Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, while hailing Monday's news as a "positive step," said Canada needs to be party to a final deal.

    "A trilateral agreement is the best path forward," Cornyn said, adding that millions of jobs were at stake.

    There are political reasons to keep Canada inside the regional bloc.

    "Mexico will have a difficult time selling 'Trump's deal' back home if Canada does not think it is a good deal," said Daniel Ujczo, a trade lawyer with Dickinson Wright PLLC. "It will appear that Mexico caved."

    Delay over 'sunset clause'
    Indeed, Mexico has said it wants Canada included in any new deal to replace NAFTA.

    "We are very interested in this being an agreement of three countries," said president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. At the same time, Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray told reporters that "Mexico will have a free trade agreement regardless of the outcome" of U.S.-Canada negotiations.

    The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said Mexico had agreed to ensure that 75 per cent of automotive content be produced within the trade bloc (up from a current 62.5 per cent) to receive duty-free benefits, and that 40 per cent to 45 per cent be made by workers earning at least $16 an hour. Those changes are meant to encourage more auto production in the United States.

    For months, the talks were held up by the Trump administration's insistence on a "sunset clause": A renegotiated NAFTA would end after five years unless all three countries agreed to continue it. Mexico and Canada considered that proposal a deal killer.

    On Monday, the Trump administration and Mexico announced a compromise on that divisive issue: An overhauled NAFTA would remain in force for 16 years and would be reviewed every six years.
     
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    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...america-as-a-manufacturing-powerhouse-navarro

    Trade deal to restore US, North America as a manufacturing powerhouse: Navarro
    Detroit should be happy about US-Mexico trade deal: Peter Navarro
    White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on the trade deal reached between the U.S. and Mexico.


    President Trump announced a tentative trade deal with Mexico on Monday.

    “We’re going to restore this country and North America as a manufacturing powerhouse,” White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told FOX Business’ Lou Dobbs. “There are a lot of bells and whistles in this agreement, but what drives the engine here is the rules of origin and really tough labor provisions.”

    Navarro believes the deal will bring back auto parts and the auto industry from the rest of the world, which he says has been stealing it from both Mexico and the United States.

    “This is a rebalance that works for both countries that is the beauty of this deal and Detroit should be very happy tonight along with the rest of the country,” he added.


    Navarro says a key part is protecting intellectual property.

    “The agricultural provision means were are going to export more agricultural products,” said Navarro. “We are going to have more protection. It has the best intellectual property protection we have seen in a free trade agreement and when people steal our stuff, that helps drive the deficit as well.”

    Navarro says at the root of the agreement is solidifying the manufacturing base and supply chain.

    He believes the deal will appeal to congressional lawmakers on both sides of the aisle.
     

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