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    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy...-with-or-without-canada-us-commerce-secretary

    US moving ahead ‘with or without’ Canada: Wilbur Ross

    Canadian economy can't survive well without a US deal: Wilbur Ross
    Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross on the trade deal with Mexico and the outlook for trade negotiations with Canada.


    U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Tuesday that President Trump is “fully prepared” to move ahead on trade “with or without” Canada’s involvement.

    “This deal is pretty well put together with Mexico,” Ross told FOX Business’ Dagen McDowell. “So the president, as he’s indicated, is fully prepared to go ahead with or without Canada.”

    Canadian officials said Monday they would only sign a new trade agreement if it benefitted the country and its middle class.

    “We are in regular contact with our negotiating partners, and we will continue to work toward a modernized NAFTA,” a spokesperson for Canada’s Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said in a statement. “We will only sign a new NAFTA that is good for Canada and good for the middle class. Canada’s signature is required.”


    Ross said the administration is hopeful Canada will come in to the trade agreement.

    “I think it’s a good idea if they do,” he said. “There’s really not much they should object to. But if not, they will then have to be treated as a real outsider.”

    Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Tuesday that he thinks a trade deal with Canada could be completed this week.

    “I think our objective is to try to get Canada aboard quickly,” he said during an interview on CNBC.

    The U.S. and Mexico reached an agreement on Monday to enter a new trade deal, which will be called “The United States-Mexico Trade Agreement.” The trade pact will likely be signed by the end of November, according to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer. The previous deal between the two countries will be scrapped, according to Trump.

    “It’s a big day for trade, it’s a bid day for our country,” Trump said when announcing the deal from the Oval Office. “A lot of people thought we’d never get here because we all negotiate tough – we do, so does Mexico.”
     
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    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/trump-canada-dairy/562508/

    President Trump’s Twitter jab at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau—in which he publicly called the leader of an allied country “meek and mild,” plus “dishonest & weak”—spawned a mini–cottage industry of articles (including my own) on the fate of the U.S.-led Western world order. And at first glance it’s puzzling why Trump would pick a fight with Canada, of all places, just as he was departing a summit meeting there.


    But in the same tweet he was pretty explicit about the source of his beef: It’s dairy. Referring to steel and aluminum tariffs he has imposed on Canada, he wrote: “Our Tariffs are in response to his of 270% on dairy!” He has a point. But Trump’s complaint obscures the fact that Canada has in the past been open to allowing in dairy imports in exchange for appropriate concessions; that Canada complains that the U.S. subsidizes its own dairy industry; and, perhaps most important, that while Trudeau, like all Western leaders, might need a close relationship with the United States, he needs to appeal to domestic political realities even more.

    At issue is the Canadian supply-management system, which covers dairy, eggs, and poultry products. The system sets domestic production quotas and keeps prices stable, thereby guaranteeing farmers a steady income. And, in order to keep the supply stable, Canada blocks imports from other countries, including the U.S., by imposing tariffs—up to 270 percent on dairy products. About 80 percent of Canada’s dairy farmers are concentrated in two provinces, Quebec and Ontario, both of which are crucial to Trudeau’s political fortunes. (The system is by no means universally popular in Canada.)

    [​IMG]
    Nikki Haley Warns That Iran Could Become ‘the Next North Korea’
    URI FRIEDMAN

    “It’s not about Trump and Trudeau,” Stephen Kelly, who served as the U.S. consul general in Quebec City and the deputy chief of mission in Ottawa, told me. “This has been an irritant for many years.”

    Decades, in fact—and not just for the United States, whose dairy farmers would like access to the Canadian market, but also their counterparts in New Zealand and elsewhere. New Zealand had opposed Canada’s entry into the Trans-Pacific Partnership over the supply-management system, but Stephen Harper, the Canadian prime minister at the time, agreed to dismantle the system in exchange for TPP membership. When the U.S. withdrew from the TPP, one of Trump’s first decisions as president, Canada withdrew that concession—other countries withdrew their concessions, as well—in the hopes that it could be put back on the table in the future if the U.S. rejoins the pact and demands compromises from the others.


    The Canadians aren’t entirely opposed to negotiating on the dairy industry if they are getting something in return: In its Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement with the European Union, Canada agreed to import European cheese without tariffs. From Canada’s point of view, it is worth it for nearly tariff-free access to the 28-member bloc that is the world’s largest economy.

    “In a multilateral context, there was more to trade off. Now the problem is that Trump is dealing with this in a bilateral context where trade barriers are generally very low,” Christopher Sands, the director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School for Advanced International Studies, told me. “Most tariffs are down to zero anyway. So, there’s not much for the U.S. to give in return for the change.”

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    It doesn’t help that the U.S. subsidizes its own dairy industry heavily—up to $22 billion in 2015, according to one study. “The Canadians say, ‘Hey, wait a minute. You subsidize milk, too,’” Kelly, who is now a research scholar at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University, said. “You’ve got all sorts of support programs for milk.”


    In other words, Canada props up its dairy industry through quotas that cap the amount produced, and imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The U.S. subsidizes its dairy industry, resulting in lower costs for U.S. consumers, but a supply glut.

    “From a geopolitical point of view, the trouble with supply management is it's kind of in your face: ‘You cannot enter our market. You foreigners cannot enter our markets unless you pay tariffs of like 200 percent,’” Kelly said. “Whereas subsidies are more insidious. They … probably are anti-trade in some sense, but they’re not as glaring. … We do it more subtly.”

    Those subsidies exist in the U.S. for the same reason Canada has a supply-management system: domestic politics.

    Harper’s conservative government could make a concession on the TPP because, Sands said, his party had almost no parliamentary seats in Quebec, the province with the greatest concentration of dairy farmers; he was dealing with a budget surplus with which he could simply provide the farmers with cash payments; and, in return, he could offer Canadian dairy farmers access to foreign markets. Trudeau, on the other hand, doesn’t have these advantages: Quebec provides Trudeau his second-biggest bloc of seats, including his own, making him politically vulnerable if he infuriates dairy farmers. He has no obvious olive branch to offer the dairy industry. Perhaps most importantly, he's in a budget deficit.


    “He doesn't have the maneuverability,” Sands said, “which isn’t to say that we couldn’t reach an agreement here, but the politics have changed and the dynamics have changed.” As have U.S. relations with Canada.

    Sands said Trudeau took a strategic decision when Trump was elected that he was going to work with the U.S. president. The Canadian public, despite their dislike of Trump, supported their prime minister.

    “He got lots of praise for that in that first year or so, but he got nothing in return: NAFTA is still unsettled, steel and aluminum tariffs are hitting him, softwood lumber tariffs are hitting him,” Sands said. “And I think what he's judged is ‘I'm getting nothing for being nice.’”

    saying his country was “not going to be pushed around” on trade by the Americans. And in his now-famous news conference after the G7 summit, he reiterated that Canadian tariffs on U.S. products would go into effect July. 1. “Canadians, we’re polite, we’re reasonable, but we also will not be pushed around,” he said. By all accounts, Trudeau’s response has been widely welcomed in Canada—even by his political rivals.

    “I don't want to say panic is setting in, but there has been a strategic shift, and … so that's why Trudeau escalated, and Trump responded to the escalation by escalating again. It’s that classic Trumpian brinkmanship,” Sands told me. “We’re on a very bad track because I don't really see Trudeau having a lot of room to retreat, and Trump can change his mind any time, but he doesn't seem like he wants to right now.”
     
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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...ring-us/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e254492cd277
    Trump threatens tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, expanding the trade war to all Chinese imports entering the U.S.

    By David J. Lynch
    September 7 at 3:00 PM
    President Trump said on Air Force One Friday that he is ready to impose tariffs on $267 billion in Chinese goods, on top of the additional $200 billion that he said will likely be hit with import taxes in a matter of days.

    If eventually carried out, the president’s latest threat could result in tariffs on all Chinese goods entering the United States, an unprecedented escalation of Trump’s trade war with China.

    The U.S. in July began imposing tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese industrial imports as the president moved to confront Beijing over a range of policies that have long vexed American leaders.

    "We’ve taxed them $50 billion — that’s on technology,” the president said. “Now we’ve added another $200 billion. And I hate to say that, but behind that, there’s another $267 billion ready to go on short notice if I want. That totally changes the equation."

    Stocks dipped after Trump's comments became public. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off about 130 points or 0.5 percent in early afternoon trading.

    The tariffs that Trump has imposed, and threatened to impose, total $517 billion -- more than the $505 billion in Chinese goods that entered the country last year. The president says the tariffs are needed to force China to stop stealing U.S. technology and coercing American companies to surrender their trade secrets in return for access to the Chinese market.

    It's not clear why the president cited the specific figure he used.

    So far this year, U.S. imports from China are running roughly 8 percent higher than last year during the same period. If that pace continued for the remainder of this year, Chinese imports would top $548 billion -- leaving Trump a bit short of complete coverage of Chinese goods.

    The office of the U.S. trade representative finished accepting comments Thursday on the next round of tariffs, which could be applied to up to $200 billion in Chinese products any day. Included in this batch are many products purchased by consumers, such as refrigerators, spark plugs and furniture.

    Trump's decision to double-down on his uncompromising stance toward China means little chance of an early resolution of the standoff between the world's two largest economies. Additional U.S. tariffs are certain to trigger Chinese retaliation, though China's lower volume of imported American goods means that it can't match Trump's tariffs on a dollar-for-dollar basis. Chinese officials may respond by subjecting American companies operating in China to unexpected tax audits, custom inspections or even consumer boycotts.

    "The end game in the U.S.-China trade war has now become even more difficult to discern as both sides step up their attacks and counter-attacks," said Cornell University economist Eswar Prasad, former head of the International Monetary Fund's China division. "Trump’s remarks confirm his intention to continue escalating trade sanctions until China capitulates, and China has equally clearly signaled it has no intention of doing so."

    Aboard Air Force One, the president noted to reporters that the Chinese stock market is suffering. The Shanghai market is down roughly 23 percent in dollar terms so far this year while the Dow has risen nearly 5 percent.
     
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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nt-200-billion-in-china-tariffs-despite-talks
    Trump Wants $200 Billion in China Tariffs Despite Talks, Sources Say


    President Donald Trump instructed aides on Thursday to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products despite his Treasury secretary’s attempt to restart talks with Beijing to resolve the trade war, according to four people familiar with the matter.



    But an announcement of the new round of tariffs has been delayed as the administration considers revisions based on concerns raised in public comments, the people said. Trump may be running low on products he can target without significant backlash from major U.S. companies and consumers, two of the people said.



    The threat of fresh tariffs roiled financial markets. U.S. stocks erased gains, dropping to session lows, while the dollar strengthened versus the Chinese offshore yuan by the most in two weeks. Technology shares led declines, with Apple Inc. falling as much as 1.7 percent. The iPhone maker last week warned that new tariffs could increase the cost of its products.



    The White House didn’t immediately comment.



    Trump met with his top trade advisers on Thursday to discuss the China tariffs, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, the people said. Mnuchin has led a recent overture to the Chinese to re-start trade talks.

    Read more: Can Trump Win If He Escalates His China Trade War?

    Trump was asked during the meeting whether he was concerned about the impact of the new tariffs on negotiations with China. He responded that he wasn’t, two of the people said.

    The public comment period for a list of tariffs on about $200 billion in Chinese goods closed last week, and Trump said the duties would be imposed “soon.” The new round would be in addition to $50 billion in Chinese goods that already face a 25 percent duty.

    The Chinese have retaliated with tariffs on an equivalent amount of U.S. exports, and have promised to match future rounds of U.S. duties.

    Before his meeting on Thursday, which didn’t appear on his public calendar, Trump boasted on Twitter that he has the upper hand in the trade feud with Beijing and feels “no pressure” to resolve the dispute.

    His comment tempered cautious optimism among investors over the U.S. government’s proposal for another round of talks with Beijing. Disclosure on Wednesday that the U.S. sought to renew the talks rallied U.S. stocks and emerging-market assets.

    Third Round
    Trump threatened a third tranche of tariffs on another $267 billion of Chinese imports last week, which would mean levying duties on nearly everything China exports to the U.S. Trump said at the time those tariffs were “ready to go on short notice,” but the administration hasn’t yet published a list for public comment.

    It has become tricky to find additional products for duties that won’t more obviously impact American consumers, according to two people. There was no decision made during Thursday’s meeting regarding when to issue the $267 billion round.

    Apple said last week the $200 billion round of tariffs could hit some of its most popular goods such as the Apple Watch and AirPods headphones. Retailers such as WalMart Inc. and Target Corp. risk being swept up in an escalating trade war if further tariffs hit a broad range of consumer goods, from TVs to sneakers.

    Efforts to end the trade dispute have fizzled so far. Officials from both countries have met four times for formal talks, most recently in August, when Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs, David Malpass, led discussions in Washington with Chinese Vice Minister Wang Shouwen.

    The White House has sought to pressure Beijing to reduce its trade surplus with America and protect intellectual property rights of U.S. companies, which it says are abused in China.

    — With assistance by Justin Sink, Andrew Mayeda, Shawn Donnan, and Jeremy Herron
     
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    https://www.ft.com/content/92e9ce0a-c55f-11e8-bc21-54264d1c4647

    US president Donald Trump has changed the trade map of North America — or has he?

    Months of hectic negotiations have yielded a new trade deal: the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement to replace Nafta. The White House is revelling in the accomplishment, which follows Mr Trump’s denunciations of Nafta as the “single worst trade deal” the US ever reached.

    The revised agreement has been reached in the nick of time to allow Mexico’s outgoing president Enrique Peña Nieto to sign it before leaving office on December 1. It is also a welcome political win for Mr Trump ahead of challenging midterm US congressional elections in November. US officials have hailed the USMCA as a template for future trade deals that will lead to increased wages for Americans, improved worker rights and better protection of intellectual property. But what difference does it actually make compared with the deal Mr Trump so often derided?

    The exact terms of the new agreement remain unclear, but here is a brief guide to some of the areas in which the USMCA marks a departure from Nafta.

    Rules of origin
    These determine what percentage of inputs imported from elsewhere are permitted for goods made within the region to benefit from the agreement. The new accord makes rules of origin more demanding for car manufacturers, since it will gradually raise the required percentage of regional auto production from 62.5 per cent to 75 per cent.

    Wages
    This is another issue the Trump administration emphasises. The new deal is likely to shift some production away from Mexico and towards the US and Canada by stipulating that a minimum input must be added in factories that pay workers at least $16 an hour.

    Sunset clause

    The old Nafta had an indefinite time horizon; the USMCA will run out in 16 years. The Trump administration had long demanded such a “sunset” clause. Indeed, Washington had wanted the sunset clause period to last only five years, but was rebuffed by Canada and Mexico. The US, Canada and Mexico will formally review the deal six years from now to determine whether to extend its lifespan beyond 16 years.

    Dairy products
    Mr Trump has been particularly exercised about what he has said was Canada’s unfair protection of its milk and cheese producers — a complex system of domestic and import quotas and guaranteed prices for farmers, buttressed by high import tariffs. Under the new deal, Canada somewhat increases US access to its dairy market. The terms appear similar to what Canada offered in the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Mr Trump abandoned, although the US will get the entire new quota to itself.

    Dispute resolution
    Robert Lighthizer, US trade representative, was particularly unhappy with chapter 19 of the Nafta agreement, which allows companies to challenge emergency antidumping and antisubsidy tariffs on their exports at a special panel. But the panel, which has often been used by Canadian lumber companies to remove blocks on their exports to the US, has been preserved at Ottawa’s insistence.

    National security
    The agreement preserves the right of the US to impose emergency tariffs of up to 25 per cent on cars and car parts on grounds of national security, duties it has also threatened to impose on other trading partners such as the EU However, the UMSCA creates limited carve-outs for both Canada and Mexico. Ottawa and Mexico City say this means their car industries are unlikely to be affected.
     
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    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busi...sers-usmca-trade-deal/?utm_term=.e8ab1bf3e7b5

    Winners and losers of the ‘USMCA’ trade deal


    Trump and Trudeau can tout this as a major victory ahead of key elections in their countries. It’s a lot less clear whether ‘NAFTA 2.0’ is good for Mexico and U.S. automakers


    The United States, Canada and Mexico finalized a sweeping new trade deal late Sunday, just hours before their Oct. 1 deadline. President Trump was up early Monday tweeting that the agreement is “a great deal for all three countries,” and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Sunday night that it was a “good day for Canada.

    The deal is expected to take effect around Jan. 1, 2020. Congress has to approve it, a process that will take months, but confirmation looks likely, given that Republicans are pleased Canada got on board and some Democrats are pleased with the stronger labor provisions.

    Here’s a look at who’s smiling -- and who’s not -- as the world sees this news. (For a rundown of what’s in the deal, click here).

    Winners:

    President Trump. He got a major trade deal done and will be able to say it’s another “promise kept” to his voters right before the midterm elections. And he won the messaging game -- he persuaded Canada and Mexico to ditch the name “NAFTA," for North American Free Trade Agreement, which he hated, and to instead call the new agreement “USMCA,” for United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. It’s not a total trade revolution, as Trump promised, but USMCA does make substantial changes to modernize trade rules in effect from 1994 to 2020, and it give some wins to U.S. farmers and blue-collar workers in the auto sector. Trump beat his doubters and his team can now turn to the No. 1 trade target: China.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. There might not be a lot of love lost between Trump and Trudeau, but in the end, Trudeau didn’t cave much on his key issues: dairy and Chapter 19, the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism. Trudeau held out and got what he wanted: Canada’s dairy supply management system stays mostly intact, and Chapter 19 remains in place, a win for the Canadian lumber sector. On dairy, Canada is mainly giving U.S. farmers more ability to sell milk protein concentrate, skim milk powder and infant formula. On top of the substantive issues, Trump went out of his way to criticize the Canadian negotiating team in the final days of deliberations, which Trudeau can play up as a sign of just how hard his staff fought on this deal.

    Labor unions. This agreement stipulates that at least 30 percent of cars (rising to 40 percent by 2023) must be made by workers earning $16 an hour, about three times the typical manufacturing wage in Mexico now. USMCA also stipulates that Mexico must make it easier for workers to form unions. The AFL-CIO is cautiously optimistic that this truly is a better deal for U.S. and Canadian workers in terms of keeping jobs from going to lower-paying Mexico or to Asia, although labor is looking carefully at how the new rules will be enforced. It’s possible this could accelerate automation, but that would take time.

    U.S. dairy farmers. They regain some access to the Canadian market, especially for what is known as “Class 7” milk products such as milk powder and milk proteins. The United States used to sell a lot of Class 7 products to Canada, but that changed in recent years when Canada started heavily regulating this new class. USMCA also imposes some restrictions on how much dairy Canada can export, a potential win for U.S. dairy farmers if they are able to capitalize on foreign markets.

    Stock market investors. A major worry is over, and the U.S. stock market is set to rally Monday.

    Robert E. Lighthizer. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin couldn’t get major trade deals done for the president, but U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer did. He led negotiations with South Korea on the revamped U.S.-South Korea trade deal (KORUS) that the president just signed, as well as on the “new NAFTA.” Lighthizer is proving to be the trade expert closest to Trump’s ear.

    Losers:

    China. Trump is emboldened on trade. A senior administration official said Sunday that the U.S.-Canada-Mexico deal “has become a playbook for future trade deals." The president believes his strategy is working, and he’s now likely to go harder after China because his attention won’t be diverted elsewhere (at least on trade matters).

    U.S. car buyers. Economists and auto experts think USMCA is going to cause car prices in the United States to rise and the selection to go down, especially on small cars that used to be produced in Mexico but may not be able to be brought across the border duty-free anymore. It’s unclear how much prices could rise (estimates vary), but automakers can’t rely as heavily on cheap Mexican labor now and there will likely be higher compliance costs.

    Big business. Many business groups are relieved that Trump got a trilateral deal and didn’t end up tearing up NAFTA entirely, as he had threatened to do. But the details of USMCA include some losses for big business. Some regulatory compliance costs will probably rise, especially for automakers, and big business lost Chapter 11, the investor dispute settlement mechanism that companies have used to sue Canadian and Mexican governments (the one exception is that energy and telecommunications firms still get a modified Chapter 11 with Mexico).

    Canadian steel. Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum remain in place for now, something Trudeau has called “insulting” since the two countries are longtime allies with similar labor standards.

    Unclear:

    Mexico. America’s southern neighbor kept a trade deal in place, but it had to make a lot of concessions to Trump. It’s possible this could stall some of Mexico’s manufacturing growth, and it’s unclear whether wages really will rise in Mexico because of this agreement. Big energy companies can also still challenge Mexico via Chapter 11, something that could constrain Mexico’s new government as it aims to reform energy policies.

    Ford, GM, Chrysler and other big auto companies. There’s relief among auto industry executives that the deal is done, but costs will be high for big car companies: The steel tariffs are still in place on Canada; more car parts have to come from North America (not cheaper Asia); and more car components have to be made at wages of $16 an hour. It remains to be seen how car companies are able to adjust and whether this has long-term ramifications for their bottom lines.
     
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    美加之间本来贸易逆差就很小, 所以土豆总理腰板直得很, 这新条款里真正加拿大眼前实际让步的就只有乳制品市场。

    而落日条款有助于北美三国更快地根据经济发展适当调整条约, 这一条是有长远眼光的,而且是互赢的。

    美国守住了国家安全钢铝关税, 这一全球关税是美国联合欧日加墨韩于中国展开贸易战的第一桥头堡 而美墨协议也将成为中美谈判的模板。

    现在中国的问题是自己并不是市场经济,而是依附于自由世界市场经济迅速壮大起来的国有经济和民营经济的统一体。中国自己提不出自由贸易的框架,只能眼睁睁地看着别人重谈贸易条款 在别人提出的自由框架上加上自己的保护主义条款。而中国之所以不作为, 无非是一个拖字抉和耗字决, 希望川普和美国贸易代表的精力在与其他各国谈判的时候耗尽, 希望川普在与世界贸易组织的谈判中耗尽。

    就象大批文章指出, USMCA的协议达成,我们将会很快听到中美贸易战的新一轮号角。
     
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    https://qz.com/1408402/nafta-the-most-important-clause-in-trumps-new-usmca-deal-aims-at-china/

    The most important clause in the new NAFTA deal

    After the announcement that Canada had agreed a deal to join Mexico and the US in replacing NAFTA, the 1994 trade agreement between the three nations that is hated by Donald Trump, with a new pact, the Canadian dollar rose to a five-month high against its US counterpart. The Mexican peso is at a seven-week high. Exchange rates themselves are at the heart of the new pact.

    The new United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal has 34 chapters covering everything from cross-border trade in services to the definition of woolen clothes (“wool apparel means: (a) apparel predominantly of wool, by weight”). In those thousands of words, negotiated between the three nations over the past two years, it is the second-last chapter that is truly groundbreaking.


    Chapter 33, on Macroeconomic Policies And Exchange Rate Matters, is the first in a global trade deal (paywall) to outline a method for dealing with countries artificially devaluing their currencies to make their exports cheaper and gain trade advantages. Article 33.4 states(pdf):

    1. Each Party confirms that it is bound under the Articles of Agreement of the IMF to avoid manipulating exchange rates or the international monetary system in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage.

    2. Each Party should:

    (a) achieve and maintain a market-determined exchange rate regime;

    (b) refrain from competitive devaluation, including through intervention in the foreign exchange market; and

    (c) strengthen underlying economic fundamentals, which reinforces the conditions for macroeconomic and exchange rate stability.

    To monitor this, all three countries have to declare their monthly interventions in the currency markets no later than seven days after the end of each month, as well as their foreign-exchange reserves and other data. If a dispute arises, the countries may form a panel that can limit some benefits from the USMCA as compensation, though it “may not suspend benefits that are in excess of benefits equivalent to the effect of that failure.”

    This clause doesn’t have much bearing on trade between US, Canada, and Mexico. But it sets a precedent, one that Trump is likely to use in future trade deals, especially with countries in Asia. Perhaps one in particular, with which the US is fighting a trade war.

    While the US does not officially declare China a currency manipulator, Trump has accused China of being one as the yuan has dropped significantly this year. “They’re trying to make up for lack of business by cutting their currency,” Trump has told Bloomberg. “It’s no good. They can’t do that. That’s not, like, playing on a level playing field.”
     
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    国家外汇管理局外商投资企业境内外汇账户管理办法

      第一条 为加强和完善对外商投资企业境内外汇账户的管理,便利外 商投资企业开展正常业务,根据国家外汇管理有关法规,特制定本办法。

      第二条 本办法所指“境内外汇账户”是指外商投资企业在中国境内 经批准经营外汇业务的银行或非银行金融机构(以下简称开户行)开立的外 汇账户,不包括外汇兑换券账户。

      第三条 国家外汇管理局及其分、支局(以下简称外汇管理部门)是外 商投资企业境内外汇账户的管理机关。

      第四条 外商投资企业在取得营业执照后,向开户行申请办理开户手 续时,应提交下列文件,并填写《外商投资企业基本情况登记卡》。

      1.经批准的外商投资企业的合同、章程或有关协议;

      2.工商行政管理部门颁发的营业执照副本;

      3.经贸主管机关颁发的批准证书副本;

      4.盖有企业公章的开立外汇账户申请书。

      开户行根据国家外汇管理的有关法规核对无误后应即予以开户。

      第五条 开户行在为企业开立外汇账户后20天内,应将企业的上述材 料各一份及基本情况登记卡、企业所开账户的币种、账号情况报送外汇管 理部门备案。

      第六条 外商投资企业应选择一家开户行开立外汇账户,如需在两家 或两家以上的开户行开户或需跨地区开立外汇账户,须向企业所在地外汇 管理部门提出申请,未经外汇管理部门批准,不得办理。

      第七条 除经外汇管理部门批准,企业的一切收入,必须存入境内外 汇账户,一切外汇支出,必须从境内外汇账户中支出。

      第八条 外商投资企业的正常业务支出,除外汇管理部门另有规定外 ,可凭有关业务支付凭证,通过开户行直接办理汇出手续;外方投资者依 法纳税后的外汇利润和其他外汇收益的汇出,应凭企业董事会分配利润决 议书及完税证明,通过开户行直接办理,并由开户行在其完税证明上加盖 印签。

      第九条 除外汇管理部门另有规定外,企业的下列项目的支出,须经 外汇管理部门批准后方可办理:

      1.外方投资者外汇资本的转移和依法清理结束后分得的外汇资金的汇 出;

      2.经批准设立在境外的分支机构或办事机构所需经费或营运资金的汇 出;

      第十条 外商投资企业境外借款的汇入和还本付息资金的汇出,依照 国家外汇管理局《外债统计监测暂行规定》办理。

      第十一条 外商投资企业不得将境内外汇账户出借或代他人办理收付 。

      第十二条 开户行应严格按本办法办理外商投资企业境内外汇账户资 金的收付使用事宜,对不执行本办法的,外汇管理部门将予以处理,直至 取消该开户行的开户审核权。

      第十三条 外汇管理部门有权检查企业境内外汇账户的使用情况,对 违反本办法的企业,应按国家有关管汇法规办理。

      第十四条 本办法由国家外汇管理局负责解释。经济特区外汇管理分 局可根据本办法并结合当地情况制定施行细则,并报总局备案。

      第十五条 本办法自文到之日起执行。
     
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    一文读懂中国企业资金出境所有通道!
    作者: 晨哨网

    2016-05-31 08:55
    在目前的监管体系下,资金出海成为跨境投资顺利开展的第一步,为了让大家从外汇监管角度理解目前人民币资金如何可以合法地出境,本文详细分析了目前可能的境内机构和个人向境外付汇的方式。


    [​IMG]



    “ 伴随中国逐渐成为资金净输出国,中国经济已经迎来跨境投资新纪元,预计2016年中国的海外投资将比2015年增长一倍多。在目前的监管体系下,资金出海成为跨境投资顺利开展的第一步,为了让大家从外汇监管角度理解目前人民币资金如何可以合法地出境,业内知名的汉坤律师事务所进行了系统研究,并准备了七期专题详细分析了目前可能的境内机构和个人向境外付汇的方式。 ”


    [​IMG]




    本文特将此七期专题整理成本篇的重磅合集,读懂跨境付汇、境外投资、内保外贷等问题,看这一篇就够了!


    [​IMG]





    一、概述

    由于中国在资本项目上的外汇管制尚未完全放开,境内企业将人民币兑换成外币并向境外支付时,仍会受到外汇管理部门直接或间接的监管。根据《中华人民共和国外汇管理条例》和其他有关外汇管理的规定,境内企业在不同的交易结构下向境外付款时,受到的监管程度也有所不同。

    境内企业通常可以根据以下交易向境外付款:

    1、通过经常项目下的服务费、货款或股息的支付;

    2、通过资本项目下的偿还外债本金、外商投资企业减资或清算、企业境外放款、企业境外投资;

    3、内保外贷。 本系列文章就上述三种方式所涉及的程序和文件,作概括的说明。

    以下表格是对本系列文章涉及的各种境外付汇方式的概述,如欲了解详细信息,请参阅本系列文章的后续章节。


    [​IMG]



    ·资金出境主要方式或通道类型比较

    二、经常项目项下的付汇

    通过经常项目下的服务费支付或企业股利支付,境内企业可以将人民币兑换成美元或其他外币汇出境外。为实现上述目的,境内企业需要符合以下条件:

    1、已开立经常项目外汇账户;

    2、外汇支出具有真实、合法的交易基础;

    3、提交符合法律规定的文件;和

    4、已完成于主管税务部门的备案。

    以下将就上述条件和规定作详细的说明。

    1、开立经常项目外汇账户

    根据外汇管理相关规定,境内企业应首先到外汇局进行机构基本信息登记,然后在外汇指定银行开立经常项目外汇账户。目前,外汇局不再对境内机构经常项目外汇账户的开立、变更、关闭进行事先核准,境内企业可直接到外汇指定银行开立经常项目外汇账户。

    基本信息登记需向外汇局提交:(a)营业执照;和(b)组织机构代码证。开立经常项目外汇账户需向外汇指定银行提交:(a)开户申请书;(b)营业执照;和(c)组织机构代码证。

    2、交易真实性审核

    根据外汇管理相关规定,经常项目外汇支出应当具有真实、合法的交易基础。就经常项目外汇支出,境内企业应凭有效单证以自有外汇支付或者向外汇指定银行购汇支付。外汇局或外汇指定银行将对交易单证的真实性及其与外汇收支的一致性进行合理审查。

    根据《服务贸易外汇管理指引》(“《指引》”),《指引》中列明的服务贸易外汇收支项目,除了另有明确规定的项目外,其他项目的外汇收支按照《指引》及配套实施细则执行。根据《指引》,经营外汇业务的金融机构(“金融机构”)办理服务贸易外汇收支业务时应按照外汇局的规定对交易真实性进行合理审查;外汇局有权对相关业务进行监督检查。

    境内机构或个人无论是购汇支付还是从外汇账户支付,金融机构都应当审核《指引》中所要求的相关证明材料。

    3、应提交的文件和审核主体

    (1)服务贸易的概括规定

    首先,就单笔等值5万美元以上的服务贸易外汇收支,《指引》列举了针对不同的业务类型金融机构应审查并留存的交易单证,该等业务类型包括国际运输业务、对外劳务合作或对外承包工程、专有权利使用费和特许费、利润、股息和红利的对外支付等。针对未列明的业务类型,需要审查的交易单证包括合同(协议)或发票(支付通知)或相关其他交易单证。金融机构应审查交易单证的真实性及其与外汇收支的一致性。

    因此,对于《指引》明确规定的服务贸易项下的外汇收支,由金融机构审核即可,不需要外汇局的批准。但是在实际操作中,服务贸易项下的对外支付数额如果太高,金融机构内部对交易的合理性和真实性审查会很严格,比如会提交给上一级银行机构进行审查等。

    其次,办理单笔等值5万美元以下(含5万美元)服务贸易外汇收支业务的,金融机构原则上可不审核交易单证,但对于资金性质不明确的外汇收支业务,金融机构应要求境内机构和境内个人提交交易单证进行合理审查。

    最后,关于现行法规规定不明确的非贸易售付汇项目,对于法规未明确规定审核凭证的服务贸易项下的售付汇,等值10万美元以下(含10万美元)的由外汇指定银行审核,等值10万美元以上的由地方外汇局审核。

    (2)利润、股息和红利项下对外支付

    《指引》规定,针对利润、股息和红利项下对外支付,金融机构需审查并留存的交易单证包括:(a)会计师事务所出具的相关年度财务审计报告;(b)董事会关于利润分配的决议;(c)最近一期的验资报告。

    其中,外商投资合伙企业外国合伙人所得利润项下对外支付需要提交的交易单证包括外国合伙人出资确认登记证明和利润分配决议,其中,外国合伙人出资确认登记证明可由金融机构从外汇局相关系统打印。

    利润、股息和红利项下收汇时需要提交的交易单证为利润处置决议和境外机构相关年度的财务报表。

    4、相关纳税义务

    对非居民企业有来源于中国境内所得的,应缴纳10%的预提所得税,除非中国与该外国政府或地区有税收协定。

    按照中国现行的涉及股息税收的规定,对日本、美国、澳门等地的非居民企业分配股息时适用10%的税率,对香港、新加坡和韩国等地的非居民企业分配股息时(且直接拥有支付股息公司至少25%股份情况下)适用5%的税率。中国居民公司向税收协定缔约对方税收居民支付股息,且该对方税收居民(或股息收取人)是该股息的受益所有人,则该对方税收居民取得的该项股息可享受税收协定待遇,即按税收协定规定的税率计算其在中国应缴纳的所得税。

    根据上述规定,对于享受优惠税率的情形仅适用于股息分配,不适用于利息分配或其他所得的分配;且根据《国家税务总局关于执行税收协定股息条款有关问题的通知》的规定,“以获取优惠的税收地位为主要目的交易或安排不应构成适用税收协定股息条款优惠规定的理由,纳税人因该交易或安排而不当享受税收协定待遇的,主管税务机关有权进行调整。”

    根据《关于服务贸易等项目对外支付税务备案有关问题的公告》(“《公告》”)[6],境内机构和个人向境外单笔支付等值5万美元以上(不含等值5万美元)下列外汇资金,除列明的例外情况以外,均应当向所在地主管国税机关进行税务备案,主管税务机关仅为地税机关的,应向所在地同级国税机关备案:(a)境外机构或个人从境内获得的包括运输、旅游、通信、建筑安装及劳务承包、保险服务、金融服务、计算机和信息服务、专有权利使用和特许、体育文化和娱乐服务、其他商业服务、政府服务等服务贸易收入;(b)境外个人在境内的工作报酬,境外机构或个人从境内获得的股息、红利、利润、直接债务利息、担保费以及非资本转移的捐赠、赔偿、税收、偶然性所得等收益和经常转移收入;(c)境外机构或个人从境内获得的融资租赁租金、不动产的转让收入、股权转让所得以及外国投资者其他合法所得。

    根据《公告》,境内机构和个人在办理对外支付税务备案时,应向主管国税机关提交加盖公章的合同(协议)或相关交易凭证复印件(外文文本应同时附送中文译本),并填报《服务贸易等项目对外支付税务备案表》(可在主管国税机关办税服务厅窗口领取或从主管国税机关官方网站下载)。同一笔合同需要多次对外支付的,须在每次付汇前办理税务备案手续,但只需在首次付汇备案时提交合同(协议)或相关交易凭证复印件。

    境内机构和个人完成税务备案手续后,持主管国税机关盖章的《备案表》,按照外汇管理的规定,到外汇指定银行办理付汇审核手续。
     
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    Wilbur Ross: RIP NAFTA

     
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    Wilbur Ross 强调了大北美贸易协定的签订, 将对与欧日美的协议有积极影响作用, 中国仍然不在贸易谈判的优先排序中
     
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    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...st-blow-to-trudeaus-asia-ambitions/ar-BBNZ2EZ

    NAFTA's China Clause Is Latest Blow to Trudeau's Asia Ambitions

    Justin Trudeau dreams of closer Canadian ties with China. The deal he just made with Donald Trump makes it harder for that to happen.


    The new trade agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico includes a provision that requires one member to notify the others if it launches trade talks with a non-market economy. If those talks lead to a deal, the signatory could potentially be frozen out of the North American pact.

    It’s essentially a China clause, with the Trump administration gearing up for trade war with Beijing. It’s also partially symbolic. But for Trudeau, it’s either a concession or an admission that his aspirations for a free-trade deal China have fallen flat.

    The Canadian prime minister’s visit to China fizzled last year, and he rejected a major takeover this spring. But in a cabinet shuffle this summer -- when the fate of the North American Free Trade Agreement was still unclear -- he added “diversification” to his new trade minister’s title. And now he’s effectively siding with the U.S. against the Asian powerhouse.

    “The U.S. is going to get all its partners to gang up on China, but it’s clear that Canada did this because there was a gun to its head,” said Mary Lovely, an economics professor at Syracuse University who studies trade issues. “Now Canada has its hands tied.”

    [​IMG]© Bloomberg President Trump speaks on U.S.-Mexico-Canada agreement at the White House

    Article 32.10
    The U.S. and Canada reached their deal late Sunday, shortly before a deadline, and published the legal text that would allow it to be signed by the end of November. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, as the new NAFTA is known, still needs to be ratified by the U.S. Congress and other legislatures before coming into force.

    Donald Trump speaks on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, on Oct. 1.

    Article 32.10 requires any USMCA nation to notify the other two members three months before launching free trade talks with a non-market economy. The other countries can review any deal before it’s signed and, once a new pact between a USMCA member and a non-market economy takes effect, the other two members can terminate the trilateral North American agreement and strike a bilateral one.

    “They can basically pull the chute and kick you out by virtue of what they feel violates that clause,” said Peter MacKay, who served as foreign minister under Trudeau’s predecessor and is now a partner at law firm Baker & McKenzie LLP. “The government doesn’t seem to be very forthcoming as to why they would want to become supplicant to the United States in a trade war with China.”

    Others argue the change is more symbolic. “While I understand why people see this provision as a bit of an infringement on Canadian sovereignty, that’s not typical of an FTA,” said Matthew Kronby, a Toronto-based trade lawyer at Borden Ladner Gervais LLP. “At a practical level, it has far less significance than some people are suggesting it does.”

    [​IMG]© Bloomberg
    Both Trudeau and his foreign minister, Chrystia Freeland, have downplayed the significance of the clause. Freeland told reporters in Ottawa Monday that countries are already able to quit the new NAFTA, regardless of the China clause.

    Trudeau also signaled he’s still interested in wooing Beijing. “China is a significant, growing player on global trade and we as always will look for ways to engage, deepen and improve our trading relationship with them,” he said Tuesday at a press conference in Vancouver.

    [​IMG]© Bloomberg Prime Minister Trudeau and Foreign Affairs Minister Freeland hold press conference on Nafta.
    In a statement published Friday, China’s embassy in Ottawa said it’s “dishonest behavior” to tuck provisions into a trade deal “fabricating the concepts” of different standards for non-market economies.

    “We deplore the hegemonic actions taken by some” countries, the embassy said, without specifying which one, and that doing so “blatantly interferes” with the sovereignty of others. “No matter how other countries adopt trade restricting actions against China, China will consistently pursue opening-up at its own pace.”

    The Trump administration is targeting China and views trade negotiations with other nations as a way to set the stage. The U.S. is in talks with the European Union and Japan, and is moving toward a “trade coalition of the willing to confront China,” White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told the Economic Club of Washington on Thursday.

    Lovely, the Syracuse University professor, worries that joining such a coalition undercuts Canadian and Mexican sovereignty on trade issues. “The U.S. is setting itself up as the rule-writer, judge and jury,” she said.

    Beyond China
    While Article 32.10 doesn’t specifically name China, “they will very much take notice and they will do what they think is pragmatic,” according to Stewart Beck, a former diplomat who now heads the Vancouver-based Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada. The effects of the clause could extend beyond Beijing, he added, potentially preventing Canada from striking a deal with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose members include Vietnam.

    Canada probably agreed to the clause -- and other changes in the USMCA -- rather than risk a major rift with the U.S., which is a much bigger trading partner, several observers said. The northern nation exported C$411 billion ($318 billion) of goods to the U.S. in 2017, according to Statistics Canada, compared with C$25 billion to China.

    “This was the lesser of evils to accept what the United States had basically thrust upon us,” MacKay said. “I don’t think the gun was necessarily to our head -- it was in our mouth, with the trigger cocked and a full chamber.”

    Article 32.10 is already a source of debate domestically. The government of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, wrote to Freeland this week asking how the clause will “affect future trade deals between Canada and other nations.” Trudeau’s foreign minister defended the deal in her response. “Nothing in this agreement infringes on Canada’s sovereign right to develop commercial relations with any country of its choosing,” she wrote.

    --With assistan
     
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    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/17/us/politics/trump-china-shipping.html

    Trump Opens New Front in His Battle With China: International Shipping

    By Glenn Thrush

    • Oct. 17, 2018
    WASHINGTON — President Trump plans to withdraw from a 144-year-old postal treaty that has allowed Chinese companies to ship small packages to the United States at a steeply discounted rate, undercutting American competitors and flooding the market with cheap consumer goods.

    The withdrawal, announced by the White House on Wednesday, is part of a concerted push by Mr. Trump to counter China’s dominance and punish it for what the administration says is a pattern of unfair trade practices. The White House, in a statement, said “sufficient progress has not been made on reforming terms” of the postal treaty and that it would begin the withdrawal process while seeking to “negotiate bilateral and multilateral agreements that resolve the problems.”

    The Universal Postal Union treaty, first drafted in 1874, sets fees that national postal services charge to deliver mail and small parcels to countries around the world. Since 1969, poor and developing countries — including China — have been assessed lower rates than wealthier countries in Europe and North America.

    While the lower rates were intended to foster development in Asia and Africa, Chinese companies now make up about 60 percent of packages shipped into the country, taking advantage of the lower rates to ship clothing, household gadgets and consumer electronics. Many websites now offer free shipping from China, in part because of the cheap postal rates, administration officials say.

    The decision to withdraw was made at the urging of Peter Navarro, Mr. Trump’s hard-line trade adviser, who sees the move as a way to thwart China and an opportunity to challenge the authority of international groups, like the World Trade Organization, that, in his view, fail to give the United States voting powers commensurate with the country’s economic stature.

    Mr. Trump, who told “60 Minutes” last weekend that his biggest regret as president wasn’t quickly “terminating” the North American Free Trade Agreement after he took office, has also been eager to emphasize that he is tough on trade by pulling out of a treaty, even a relatively obscure one, according to people familiar with his thinking on the matter.


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    State Department officials were expected on Wednesday to inform officials at the Universal Postal Union in Bern, Switzerland, a branch of the United Nations that administers the treaty, of their intention to pull out of the system and "self-declare” new, higher rates on China, a United States official said.

    According to the union’s rules, members will have a year to renegotiate new terms before the withdrawal becomes permanent. “If negotiations are successful, the administration is prepared to rescind the notice of withdrawal and remain” in the treaty, the White House statement said.

    The move will most likely inflame tensions with China, which the administration has accused of unfair trade practices and punished with tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, investment restrictions and other measures. Administration officials are still weighing whether Mr. Trump will meet with China’s president, Xi Jinping, in Argentina next month.

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    It is not clear whether China will retaliate if the United States pulls out of the treaty. Administration officials said they were assessing rates for other countries and had not made any decisions about whether the policy would extend beyond China.

    in a Financial Times op-ed last month. “It is often possible for a Chinese company to sell ‘knockoff’ products through online vendors, such as Amazon or Alibaba, to U.S. consumers for less than it costs for American mailers to ship authentic goods. Moreover, while USPS loses an estimated $1 on every small package that arrives from China, outbound mail of American exporters is charged at well above cost.”

    A 2015 report from the Inspector General of the United States Postal Service found that the treaty, which was created to ease the flow of mail and small parcels between 192 countries, had not been overhauled to reflect the new realities of eCommerce and China’s aggressive undercutting of international competitors.

    The price of shipping a 4.4 pound package, the largest parcel covered by the treaty, from China to the United States is about $5, according to United States estimates. American companies can pay two to four times that amount to ship a similar package from Los Angeles to New York, and much more for packages sent to China.

    cited in a Postal Service analysis of the issue, estimated that discounted shipping cost industrialized nations as much as $2.1 billion a year in aggregate.

    The losses to retailers and manufacturers could be much more, as online commerce expands further.

    Industry groups, even ones that have questioned the president’s tariffs on Chinese imports, applauded the move as proportional and targeted.

    “This outdated arrangement contributes significantly to the flood of counterfeit goods and dangerous drugs that enter the country from China,” said Jay Timmons, chief executive of the National Association of Manufacturers, a trade group. “Manufacturers and manufacturing workers in the United States will greatly benefit from a modernized and far more fair arrangement with China.”

    But the changes could have an even bigger impact on small retailers who have found themselves outgunned and undercut by Chinese competitors.

    Jayme Smaldone, who runs a 12-employee housewares company in Rahway, N.J., first became aware of the problem when he noticed websites selling Chinese knockoffs of his “Mighty Mug,” a desktop coffee cup he designed with an anti-topple base

    “Something has to be done,” he said. “How can my government be subsidizing China and driving me out of business?”
     

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