Zt 文件六条

本帖由 99812018-05-04 发布。版面名称:华人论坛

  1. 9981

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    https://site.6parker.com/finance/index.php?app=forum&act=threadview&tid=14101578

    福建晋华的技术开发方叫停 DRAM 计划,美三大设备供应商全面撤出

    国内自主存储 DRAM 技术开发阵营之一的福建晋华,日前被美国商务部以国家安全为由,列入出口管制清单,美国三大半导体设备商 Applied Materials 、 Lam Research 、 Axcelis 在禁令实施当天就立刻撤出福建晋华的 12 寸厂,而福建晋华的 DRAM 技术开发合作方台湾联电也在 10 月 31 日正式表态,决定停止该 DRAM 开发计划。6parker.com

    国内每年进口的集成电路产品金额超过 2600 亿美元,超过石油的进口金额,但国内自制芯片的比重却不到 30%,这当中最为缺乏的产品就是存储芯片,包含 DRAM 和 NAND Flash 两大产品,因此这几年国内逐渐形成三大存储阵营积极自主研发,分别为 DRAM 项目的福建晋华和合肥长鑫,以及研发生产 NAND Flash 芯片的长江存储。6parker.com

    论起自主研发存储芯片,DRAM 项目其实比 NAND Flash 项目更为困难且敏感。全球可以生产 NAND Flash 芯片的供应商还有 5 ~ 6 家,但全球有能力生产 DRAM 的供应商却只剩下三星电子(Samsung Electronics)、SK 海力士(SK Hynix)、美光(Micron)三家,可想而知这三家大厂会将 DRAM 技术列入保护的最高等级。美国这次将福建晋华列为出口管制清单企业,也反映美国对于 DRAM 技术保护的程度。6parker.com

    据供应链透露,10 月 30 日是美国实施出口管制的第一天,美国三大半导体设备商 Applied Materials 、 Lam Research 、 Axcelis 当天就将驻厂人员全数撤出福建晋华的 12 寸厂,所有的机台设备装机、协助生产的动作全面停止,而已下单但未出货的机台设备则全数暂停出货。6parker.com

    其他美国的设备材料供应商还有 KLA-Tencor 、 Gatan 、 ECI Technology 、 Bruker 、 Engegris 等,另外像是美系的芯片设计工具 EDA 供应商也都列为管制项目的清单中。6parker.com

    值得注意的是,福建晋华的 DRAM 技术合作开发伙伴台湾联电在 10 月 31 日正式指出,将停止 DRAM 开发项目。6parker.com

    其实,今年以来福建晋华在关键机台的取得上一直被美光阻挡,部分美光拥有专利的 DRAM 机台设备,严禁出口给福建晋华,但因为数目不多,因此对福建晋华产生的影响有限,不像是这次全面性的禁售。

    美光先前控告两名台湾的离职员工携带机密资料到联电任职,协助福建晋华进行 DRAM 开发,这两名离职员工也因此被起诉。同时,美光也针对联电提出控告,不过,联电在台湾并未被起诉,仅被认为未善尽管理之责。6parker.com

    不料,去年底美光又在美国加州针对联电控告妨碍营业秘密,联电回应并无侵犯美光知识产权的事实。6parker.com

    而这场司法大战的最高潮,应该是发展到今年 7 月,福建晋华/联电阵营,以及美光在中国进行知识产权和专利诉讼,最后,福州中级法院宣判美光确实有侵犯福建晋华/联电在部分 DRAM 和 NAND Flash 存储技术上的专利,导致美光的部分存储产品在国内禁运。业界认为,这件事是引爆整起事件情势演变迄今的导火线。6parker.com

    整个风暴发生至今仅四天的时间,力道却是又急又猛烈。10 月 29 日美国商务部宣布出口禁令,10 月 30 日该禁令实施后,所有美系供应商撤出福建晋华,发展到 10 月 31 日,晋华的 DRAM 技术开发伙伴联电也宣布停止。6parker.com

    未来福建晋华的 DRAM 技术开发案是否将全数停摆?或是还有一线生机?只能继续等待。在联电退出后,现在最关键的问题是生产设备都无法进口,这样的局势发展,真的所有合作方都是始料未及的。
     
  2. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-says-china-tariff-hike-still-set-for-january

    Commerce's Ross says China tariff hike still set for January

    Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday that the U.S. is unlikely to get a formal deal with China in time to hold off on an increase in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent at the beginning of next year, even if a meeting set for next week between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping goes well.

    "It’s going to be big picture, but if it goes well, it’ll set the framework for going forward," Ross told Bloomberg regarding the leaders' meeting, which will happen in Argentina as part of the G-20 summit. “We certainly won’t have a full formal deal by January. Impossible."

    Administration sources have previously leaked to various media outlets that tariffs covering as much as $257 billion worth of Chinese goods could be announced if no progress is made at the meeting. The U.S. has already hit $250 billion worth of Chinese goods with tariffs ranging from 10 to 25 percent. The existing tariffs are set to hit 25 percent across the board next year.

    The White House has expressed cautious optimism that the meeting could ease tensions. China has reportedly delivered a written response to Washington regarding its trade demands, but the details of the response have not been disclosed. Administration officials have pressured China to put its positions in writing, something Beijing has resisted doing as that would limit their negotiating ability.

    The U.S. by contrast has prepared a specific list of 142 demands. Ross said it would take the leaders a long time just to get through the items on the list, “let alone to resolve them and let alone to put (the resolutions) on paper."

    "What’ll drive the talks is when two countries feel like they’re ready to do it, and I think getting the midterms out of the way is very useful," Ross added.
     
  3. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    换句话说, 美国政府一直要求把中国政府准备怎么解决问题写下来, 中国政府不愿意写, 只愿意谈。

    美国政府不理解, 我们已经花了时间做了工作, 把我们142条要求写得清清楚楚, 为什么你们觉得写下来就限制自己谈判了呢?

    其实就算朱镕基总理写下来了, 也可以不做啊
     
  4. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    Pence at APEC

     
  5. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    Xi at APEC

     
  6. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    看老习讲话, 31:10处

    中国人民将以更负。。。。。
    (此时停顿一秒)

    责的精神

    估计是秘书字写得太草, 老习怕犯错误, 看清了才念出来
     
  7. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...g-for-most-of-trump-s-trade-war-research-says

    China Is Paying for Most of Trump's Trade War, Research Says

    President Donald Trump is succeeding in making China pay most of the cost of his trade war.

    That’s the conclusion of a new paper from EconPol Europe, a network of researchers in the European Union. U.S. companies and consumers will only pay 4.5 percent more after the nation imposed 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, and the other 20.5 percent toll will fall on Chinese producers, according to authors Benedikt Zoller-Rydzek and Gabriel Felbermayr.



    [​IMG]
    The trade dispute between the U.S. and China is showing slim hope of abating as the leaders of the two nations prepare to meet in Argentina this month. According to Zoller-Rydzek and Felbermayr, the tariffs will do what Trump has longed for: They will cut American imports of affected Chinese goods by more than a third, and lower the bilateral trade deficit by 17 percent.




    The Trump administration selected products with the highest “price elasticity,” or high availability of substitutes, according to Zoller-Rydzek and Felbermayr. The Chinese products hit by Trump’s tariffs can mostly be replaced by other goods, forcing exporters to cut selling prices to keep buyers.



    “Through its strategic choice of Chinese products, the U.S. government was not only able to minimize the negative effects on U.S. consumers and firms, but also to create substantial net welfare gains in the U.S.,” the researchers wrote.

    The U.S. is due to raise duties on the largest $200 billion tranche of goods to 25 percent from 10 percent on Jan. 1. In retaliation, China has slapped tariffs on $110 billion in imports from the U.S. and effectively shut off its purchase of key American agricultural exports including soybeans.

    With the economic costs shifted to China, the U.S. levies will lead to a $18.4 billion net gain for the American government, the researchers wrote.

    “As the trade conflict escalates, however, the U.S. administration may not be able to restrict its selection to products with high import elasticities,” they wrote. “And U.S. welfare might decrease as more of the tariff incidence falls on U.S. consumers.”
     
  8. 9981

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    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/20/lighthizer-china-trump-trade-tariffs-986829

    Lighthizer: China has not corrected actions that led to tariffs

    China has not changed unfair and discriminatory practices that prompted President Donald Trump to impose tariffs on around $250 billion worth of Chinese goods, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Tuesday.

    The U.S. trade chief made the statement in conjunction with a 53-page update it released on a report on its investigation into China's intellectual property practices under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. That probe and the initial report from March provided the legal basis for Trump to impose tariffs on nearly half of all imports from China.

    "We completed this update as part of this administration’s strengthened monitoring and enforcement effort,” Lighthizer said in a statement. “This update shows that China has not fundamentally altered its unfair, unreasonable, and market-distorting practices that were the subject of the March 2018 report on our Section 301 investigation.”

    The announcement comes 10 days before a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit in Buenos Aires that could set the stage for a pause in the trade conflict or a further escalation. Lighthizer's statement indicates that China has done little over the past eight months to address the concerns laid out in its original report.

    In an interview Tuesday on Fox Business News, chief White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow sent conflicting signals of the chance for progress in Buenos Aires.

    “As we move toward the G-20 meeting, communications, very detailed communications are occurring at all levels of government,” Kudlow said. “I think that’s a much better place than where we were two, three, four weeks ago and I think President Trump restarted that.”

    However, Kudlow also stressed Trump’s view that any deal must be in America’s interest, which means China has to address U.S. concerns about intellectual property theft, ownership restrictions, tariff and non-tariff barriers, forced technology transfers and the enforceability of any agreement that is reached.


    ADVERTISING


    That will be tough to accomplish in the next week and a half, especially because Chinese officials have indicated there are some U.S. demands they are unable to meet because of national security concerns. Most analysts think the two sides, at best, could agree to a framework for future talks.
     
  9. 4188

    4188 知名会员 ID:78993

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    秘书的发言稿不是打印出来的?
     
  10. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    他又没翻页 为什么停顿
     
  11. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...likely-to-go-ahead-with-china-tariff-increase

    Trump Signals U.S. Likely to Go Ahead With China Tariff Increase

    President Donald Trump said he’ll likely push forward with plans to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, indicating he would also slap duties on all remaining imports from the Asian nation if negotiations with China’s leader Xi Jinping fail to produce a trade deal.

    Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published Monday, said he’s prepared to impose tariffs on a final batch of $267 billion of Chinese shipments if he can’t make a deal with Xi when they meet at the Group of 20 meeting in Argentina, which starts Nov. 30. The rate could be either 10 percent or 25 percent, Trump said.

    Trump said that Apple Inc.’s iPhones and laptops imported from China could be hit by new tariffs. Americans could “very easily” handle a 10 percent duty, he said.

    The only deal the U.S. will accept is for China to open up its economy to allow American companies to compete fairly, Trump said.

    “The only deal would be China has to open up their country to competition from the United States,” the president said, according to the newspaper. “As far as other countries are concerned, that’s up to them.”

    In September, the Trump administration plunged deeper into a trade war with China by imposing a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods, and said the rate will rise to 25 percent on Jan. 1. The U.S. is unlikely to accede to demands from Beijing to refrain from increasing the tariff, Trump said.

    The U.S. already imposed tariffs on $50 billion on Chinese products earlier this year, which Beijing retaliated against on a dollar-for-dollar basis. China has since added retaliatory duties on an additional $60 billion of American products.

    Chinese officials have said their key outcome from the Trump-Xi meeting is to convince the U.S. to hold off from the tariff increase, the Wall Street Journal reported, without identifying the officials.

    Trump told the Journal that his advice to American companies caught up in the trade conflict is to build factories in the U.S. and make their products domestically.
     
  12. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-calls-chinas-tariffs-american-231709848.html

    US calls China's tariffs on American autos 'egregious'

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Three days before a U.S.-China summit, the top U.S. trade official is blasting Beijing for imposing "egregious" taxes on American-made cars.

    In a statement Wednesday, U.S. Trade Rep. Robert Lighthizer complained that China slaps 40 percent tariffs on U.S. auto imports — more than the 15 percent tariffs it imposes on other countries and the 27.5 percent U.S. tax on Chinese auto imports.

    Lighthizer said the president had directed him to "examine all available tools to equalize the tariffs applied to automobiles."

    The statement comes before a dinner meeting Saturday in Buenos Aires, Argentina, between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. The two leaders are expected to seek a resolution to a trade dispute between their countries that has shaken financial markets and threatened the global economy.

    The United States has imposed import taxes on $250 billion worth of Chinese products and China has countered by targeting $110 billion in U.S. imports. They are locked in a dispute over what Washington calls China's predatory tactics to challenge American technology dominance.

    These include, the U.S. alleges, hacking into U.S. firms' computer networks to steal trade secrets and demanding that American and other foreign companies hand over technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market.

    Separately, Trump hinted Wednesday that he's looking into imposing tariffs on auto imports, a day after threatening to slash federal subsidies to General Motors. The president is angry over the announcement Monday that GM plans to close plants and eliminate 14,000 jobs in North America.

    Higher auto tariffs on China would have a limited impact. The Chinese last year shipped just $884 million worth of cars and light trucks to the United States — less than 1 percent of total auto imports. GM makes the Buick Envision in China, but so far this year has shipped fewer than 25,000 of the SUVs to the United States.
     
  13. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    http://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2018/12/03/7871794.html

    特习会结束,中美暂时刹住了贸易大战,但给中国的只有三个月期限,否则美国将把目前针对中国2000亿美元的关税从10%提升到25%。中方还向美方承诺一系列结构性改革,但要兑换承诺十分艰巨,因为这是触动利益集团、很可能动摇习近平独裁权力的“结构性改革”。如果兑现不了,中美再开大战,然而,中国经济正在面临寒冬…….九十天,习近平能做什么?

    [​IMG]

    特习会美方代表团一侧

    美国压力

    从中方对内部报道不愿公开承诺包括“强迫技术转移、知识产权保护、非关税壁垒、网络入侵和网络盗窃、服务和农业等方面的结构性改革”以及“90天”期限这两个要命的细节来看,习近平这次是很不情愿地向美方做出了重大让步。尤其是结构性改革,习近平承诺与美方进行谈判。中方同意购买美方农产品和能源,形同把中方之前两轮对美国的贸易报复取消了,而美方对中方的两轮贸易措施原封不动。

    中方能在90天就如此重大的结构性改革与美国达成共识吗,许多专家怀疑,有分析人士表示,就算两国能就知识产权保护、网络盗窃等达成共识,也不能排除美国未来要求北京在更深层的结构性问题上做出让步。

    香港明报的社评指,在中国经济增速下滑等一些经济问题下,中美能达成遏制贸易战升级的停火协议,对中国来说,是重要的喘息机遇,北京可以时间换空间。

    但是,习近平面临的时间不多。

    党内反对声此起彼伏

    结构性调整的问题没有那么简单,一些分析人士指这将影响习近平的布局,习近平本来计划强化国有企业等是为了巩固自己的基本盘和支持力量,如果向美方做出这一让步,影响到他的权力;另外结构性调整牵涉到各方面的利益集团,习近平要动利益集团很难不招致反弹。

    况且,自中美贸易战以来,中共党内反习的声音此起彼伏,一直没有断过。据香港中文大学客席教授林和立引述北京消息人士,说服美国给中国放绿灯、中国加入世贸组织的功臣、前总理朱镕基不久前在一个聚会场合就指责习近平没有履行中国的入世承诺,朱镕基在这个场合表示:“遵守世贸规条对中国的改革开放大业有好处”,言外之意指责习近平掌权六年以来使中国愈来愈偏离世贸开放市场的原则,终于让特朗普找到发动贸易大战的理由,以至于欧盟同美国一道,拒绝给予中国市场经济地位,让中国在世界变得十分孤立。报道指,朱作为邓小平生前欣赏的党国干将,在国务院部委影响力不可小觑。

    历史学者章立凡日前曾对美国之音表示,无论是“贸易战”还是“贸易摩擦”,确已加剧了中共内部的矛盾。目前面临自六四事件以来最大的困境,也是现任领导人上台以来面对的最大挑战。其权力在年初修宪时达到顶峰,现在恐怕很多人在质疑领导能力,如把中国经济带入了险境,把中国的国际关系带入了孤立

    经济寒冬


    习近平这次向美国承诺结构性改革有他自己不得已而为之的理由。中美贸易战,一波紧似一波,已给中国经济造成不小后果。中国经济增速不断下滑,A股持续低迷,人民币汇率走贬,最新的制造业P MI指数跌至荣枯分界临界点,这些都是对中国经济预期信心受挫的反应。

    周四公布的一份由瑞士圣加仑大学的艾佛涅特和富里兹撰写的全球贸易报告指出,美国的贸易限制对中国出口的实质影响总额达到3690亿美元,远远高于受关税影响的2780亿美元商品。报告称,在今年的贸易战中,有三分之一中国出口受到牵连。

    华尔街日报周五报道称,“特习会”前中国经济乌云压顶。中国的经济环境正在迅速恶化。中国11月官方制造业PMI降至逾两年低位的统计报告,显示经济放缓压力进一步加大,内需也开始显现疲态。其实,在11月28日,财新网有一篇关于中国就业寒冬来临的翔实报道,指中国就业形势严峻,大量企业裁员,许多招聘岗位迅速消失,这篇题为“就业寒冬来临202万条招聘广告消失了”的文章公布后被火速删除。

    中国经济状态不好。官媒却在反驳经济唱衰论,人民日报11月15日就有一片奇文“中国经济底气十足”,空唱经济形势大好。

    特习会中国官媒有关特习会的报道也是有意掩盖关键内容,用夸张的语气把特习会形容成“改变世界的150分钟”。大讲“历史会记住这一天”,吹嘘“元首外交”,只谈对自己有利的“双赢”。

    宣告峰会“成功”之后,中方只有九十天的时间来完成承诺。
     
  14. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    吃饭都没他的份儿,他还说个什么劲啊。
     
  15. 9981

    9981 Nanoriver ID:40702 VIP

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    我看完中美的会议公告觉得这都是事先商量好的, 其实拿瓦锣去和罗斯去都无所谓。

    川普就是为了卖陈大豆, 那边是王73联系了黑石老板Stephen Schwarzman 未来几年,如果中美能斗争和缓, 去他的公司好处大大的有啊 高盛都明显搞不定川普
     

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