Canada among three economies in world most at risk of banking crisis

本帖由 zhangulei2018-08-09 发布。版面名称:渥太华华人论坛

  1. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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  2. Canada among three economies in world most at risk of banking crisis, BIS warns
    Global central banker raises red flag for Canada, along with China and Hong Kong, for its households' maxed-out credit cards and high debt levels
    [​IMG]
    The Bank for International Settlements says risks are growing in Canada because of to its households' maxed-out credit cards and high debt levels in the wider economy.Getty Images
    Bloomberg News
    John Glover


    March 12, 2018
    7:39 AM EDT

    Last Updated
    March 13, 2018
    12:24 PM EDT

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    Three real-life signs that interest rate hikes are already starting to bite

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    China, Canada and Hong Kong are among the economies most at risk of a banking crisis, according to early-warning indicators compiled by the Bank for International Settlements.

    Canada — whose economy grew last year at the fastest pace since 2011 — was flagged thanks to its households’ maxed-out credit cards and high debt levels in the wider economy. Household borrowing is also seen as a risk factor for China and Hong Kong, according to the study.

    “The indicators currently point to the build-up of risks in several economies,” analysts Inaki Aldasoro, Claudio Borio and Mathias Drehmann wrote in the BIS’s latest Quarterly Review published on Sunday.


    The study offered some surprising results: for example, Italy wasn’t shown as being at risk, despite its struggles with a slow-growing economy and banks that are mired in bad debts.

    While China was flagged, a key warning indicator known as the credit-to-gross domestic product “gap” showed an improvement, said the BIS, known as the central bank for central banks. This may suggest the government is making progress in its push to reduce financial-sector risk.





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    The gap is the difference between the credit-to-GDP ratio and its long-term trend. A blow-out in the number can signal that credit growth is excessive and a financial bust may be looming. In China, the gap fell to 16.7 percent in the third quarter of 2017, down from a peak of 28.9 percent in March 2016 and the lowest since 2012, the study showed.

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    The narrowing gap in China “suggests the efficiency of financial intermediation is improving,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong. “This helps to slow the pace of the rise of the debt-to-GDP ratio, creating conditions for an eventual deleveraging of the economy.”

    FINANCIAL CRACKDOWN
    China is getting serious about dangers in its financial system. While derisking has been the government’s mantra since 2015, the country’s most powerful politicians have been ramping up directives on everything from shadow banking to stock-market speculation. Since April last year, financial regulators have targeted curbing the growth of wealth management products and interbank borrowings, with a more recent focus on reining in household debt.

    The Basel, Switzerland-based BIS routinely collects and analyzes data to monitor vulnerabilities in the global financial system. These figures typically include the amount of credit in an economy and house prices, as well as borrowers’ ability to service their debts.

    For this study, the analysts assessed household borrowings and cross-border or foreign-currency liabilities as potential sources of vulnerability by back-testing them against earlier crises. They then scored the indicators by the amount they currently deviate from long-term trends.

    Bloomberg.com
     
  3. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    是不是加拿大现状?靠红字买房,靠红字刺激经济,靠红字捞政治筹码。自由党经济当真是不可持续。安省就是例子,已经倒台。

    Adding it all up, since the federal government took power in 2015 the amount of foreign direct investment into the country has been cut in half.

    According to Bloomberg, foreign acquisitions of Canadian businesses have also fallen to their lowest level since 2009.

    也就是说,加拿大几天的红火原来不过是靠自己打鸡血。
     
  4. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    居然没有美国,fake news.
     
  5. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international financial institution[2]owned by central banks which "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks".
     
  6. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    五个月过去了,竟然平安无事。
     
  7. New Person

    New Person 资深人士 ID:11416

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    我倒要看看,下一次经济危机到底会起源于中国,加拿大,还是美国。
     
  8. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    BIS说的RISK,是几年内的吗?一般都是提醒央行未来几年要面对的问题。
     
  9. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    经济学家预测经济形势,有几次是对的?
     
  10. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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  11. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    美国靠的是对金融的乐观情绪,加拿大靠的是对政府干预的信心。但是都不可持续。美国及时回头了,虽然是被迫的,加拿大呢?
     
  12. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    换一个银行再看

    Canadians are the most indebted in the world, OECD says, as it warns on rising debt risk

    Consumer debt tops 100 per cent of gross domestic product in Canada
    Bloomberg News
    Mark Deen


    November 23, 2017
    1:51 PM EST

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    The OECD warned that rising private debt loads in both advanced and developing economies pose a risk to growth as Canada, South Korea and the U.K. lead the world in household borrowing.

    “Household and corporate debt in many advanced and emerging market economies is high,” the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said Thursday in a pre-released section of a report to be presented next week.

    “While higher indebtedness does not necessarily imply that problems are just around the corner, it does increase vulnerability to shocks.”

    Indebtedness has continued to rise from high levels in the Scandinavian countries, Australia and Canada, the OECD said.

    With the global economy showing its most even expansion since the financial crisis, debt levels and credit quality are among the risks that could trigger a downturn. Consumer debt tops 100 per cent of gross domestic product in Canada, with South Korea and Britain both above 80 per cent.

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    In some countries, like Australia, Canada and the United States, debt servicing ratios have started to rise, possibly reflecting expectations of future financial tightening, the OECD said.
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    On corporate borrowing, the OECD warned about a shift in risk from banks to the bond market and a “substantial” decrease in credit quality.


    Canada’s consumer debt has also started to rise as households took advantage of low interest rates over the past seven years.

    [​IMG]
    Another key issue is the housing shortages that’s leading to price spikes on account of “binding restrictions to housing supply, predominantly in large cities,” across many developed countries such as Canada.

    “Recent OECD Economic Surveys (on housing supply) have recommended a thorough review of regulations in several countries (Australia, Canada, Chile, Luxembourg and United Kingdom), while recognising that some planning constraints are necessary for environmental and social reasons,” the OECD said.

    On Wednesday, the Liberal government announced new housing benefits for low-income tenants that could eventually help 300,000 households after 2021 — when the money is to start flowing — and 2028 by providing on average $2,500 in help, that could go to those already in social housing and those on wait lists for a unit.
     
  13. soysauce

    soysauce 初级会员 ID:125942

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    加拿大最大的经济金融风险是反移民,新移民的增量低于存量的减少。
    无论是温良的政府还是邪恶的,玩的都是庞氏骗局。旧債等新债来还,老人要新人年轻人来养,这链条断裂,金融危机经济危机就来了。
     
    已获得Anakin的支持。
  14. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    靠难民养老?你疯了吧?
    靠也要靠移民。投资或者技术。
     
  15. Jay Wang

    Jay Wang 薄皮大馅 ID:80963 VIP

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    加崩,中崩,港崩?
     
  16. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    截至三月份,多伦多市(“416”区)房屋均价$817,642,去年同期$897,856,下跌8.93%。

    905区均价$763,674,去年同期$924,563,下跌17.40%。

    GTA均价$784,558,去年同期$915,126,下跌14.26%。

    [​IMG]

    按房型分类,416区独立屋销量下降41.1%,均价$1,293,903,按年下跌17.1%。

    半独立屋销量下降28.5%,均价$1,032,358,下跌5.0%。

    镇屋销量下降27.8%,均价$735,650,下跌3.5%。

    共管公寓销量下降32.0%,均价$590,184,上涨7.1%

    [​IMG]

    905区独立屋销量下降47.7%,均价$921,515,按年跌17.9%。

    半独立屋销量下降31.6%,均价$651,967,跌12.4%。

    镇屋销量下降35.9%,均价$609,375,跌11.7%。


    共管公寓销量下降34.7%,均价$449,967,涨2.1%。
     

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