Cfc各路大神,土耳其怎么了?铺天盖地的怎么就危机了?

本帖由 chengse2018-08-12 发布。版面名称:渥太华华人论坛

  1. chengse

    chengse 上当了, 蚯蚓. ID:145874

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  2. 过了周末,天好啊,没时间看新闻。刚才这一看,怎么火鸡被烤糊了?川普又干什么坏事儿了?
     
  3. chengse

    chengse 上当了, 蚯蚓. ID:145874

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    土耳其火鸡比拼希腊烤肉?川普出手够狠。
     
  4. 向问天

    向问天 日月神教光明左使 ID:112302 VIP

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    多年的美国走狗,一旦翻脸,下场很惨。
     
  5. ccc

    ccc 难得糊涂 ID:6614 管理成员 VIP

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    没事儿,与中国贸易。
     
  6. rottenmelon

    rottenmelon 高级会员 ID:165638

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    被无意中收割了...
     
  7. Jay Wang

    Jay Wang 薄皮大馅 ID:80963 VIP

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    床总为啥怼土耳其?
     
  8. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    世界银行的预测(2017,12)

    Warnings to Turkey for 2018 from World Bank and rating agencies
    Statements from the World Bank and rating agencies were made over the weekend regarding Turkey’s economic performance. I believe it would not be wrong to read these statements as “Economic warnings for 2018 from international economic circles.”

    If we were to summarize, they recalled recovery in the world economy and that Turkey reached a very high growth rate beyond this economic recovery in 2017.

    It underlined that recovery in the global economy would continue but for diverse reasons, Turkey’s growth rates would drop. It also added reviving domestic demand by the Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) played a major role in this year’s growth, but that monetary and financial means would no longer be at the level of supporting growth.

    Important deviations in inflation were observed, caused by domestic demand and rising oil prices. Another point made by these statements is that inflation poses one of the most important risks in 2018.

    In view of the existing external fragilities, as long as these fragilities are not eliminated and important structural measures are not put into practice and institutional changes are not made, expectations about the Turkish economy will not turn into positives according to these statements.

    In this framework, there is no probability in sight for a rise in Turkey’s rating, which has gone below investment grade and there is even danger for a further drop in the country’s credit rating.

    These warnings that have started just ahead of New Year’s Eve, look set to continue through 2018, starting early on in the first months. Even if the bad news expected by domestic and foreign policy might not materialize, we will need to be accustomed to these warnings from now on based on economic figures.

    We can be confident in saying the current warnings are smooth in terms of rhetoric and are not at the level of effecting markets.

    Yet, the warnings that will come in the New Year will carry potential in terms of dosage and timing for deeply affecting markets.

    Inflation stands as a great risk in 2018

    Turkey country director for the World Bank Johannes Zutt, who does not speak with the press very often, also gave a statement.

    “Considering external fragilities, domestic inflationist pressure and the erosions seen lately in the financial sphere and limitations in the country’s financial and monetary sources that will back the economy, it is projected that the growth that has seen a rise in 2017 will slow down next year,” said Zutt.

    “The current macroeconomic environment and projected external conditions [rising energy prices and monetary tightening in the United States and Europe] will require monetary and fiscal discipline,” Zutt added.

    He underlined sound macroeconomic policies need to be accompanied by deeper structural reforms to ensure a more sustainable economic growth over the medium term for Turkey.

    “Since we currently have a negative outlook on Turkey’s rating, an upgrade is unlikely,” Kristin Lindow, senior vice president and sovereign analyst at Moody’s, told Şebnem Turhan from daily Hürriyet.

    “However, a change could happen if there are structural shifts in these vulnerabilities or material improvements in Turkey’s institutional environment or competitiveness,” she said, according to the news article published on Dec. 25.

    In view of the latest regulatory decrees and dangers in foreign policies, do you think Turkey will have the will to mitigate vulnerabilities, improve the institutional environment and maintain fiscal and monetary discipline while heading towards twin elections in 2019?
     
  9. 向问天

    向问天 日月神教光明左使 ID:112302 VIP

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    它预测了美国的制裁了吗?
     
  10. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    土耳其政治地位独特,不是小国。
    经济是一个大泡沫。此为内因。
    美国川普当选,此为不可预测的因素。横的也怕楞的。
    川普立威,此为导火索,外因。无非是为了杀鸡给猴看。你觉得呢?
    凡是有大泡沫的国家,要小心了,要么鱼死网破,要么跟着美国新常态走。

    警告谁捏?欧洲已经顺服,应该不是欧洲。俄罗斯?中国?实际上,对中国还有利,人民币结算更进一步。加拿大?还是墨西哥?墨西哥已经从了?看看吧。
     
  11. zhangulei

    zhangulei 张又雷 ID:171111

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    加拿大,墨西哥,火鸡,中国,欧盟在列。兔子不吃窝边草,剩下的里面,火鸡最弱。加拿大,中国最泡沫。欧盟墨西哥已经一定程度服软。

    U.S. launches tariff challenge at WTO against Canada, Mexico, Turkey, China and EU

    "Instead of working with us to address a common problem, some of our trading partners have elected to respond with retaliatory tariffs designed to punish American workers, farmers and companies," Lighthizer said.

    The United States earlier this year put a tariff of 10 per cent on imported aluminum, and 25 per cent on steel, in addition to other targeted measures on foreign-made goods. Other nations hit by those tariffs have launched counter-measures of their own, which so far target $24 billion US worth of American-made goods, but are soon set to increase exponentially.

    Last week, the U.S. proposed a new round of tariffs on $200 billion US worth of Chinese goods, and China is disputing those tariffs in a WTO complaint of its own, also announced Monday.

    The WTO is an international body that adjudicates trade disagreements between member nations. Member nations usually adhere to any rulings the WTO finds, but the process can be so slow and cumbersome that many disputes ended up being remedied elsewhere at some point anyway.

    Cyndee Cherniak, an international trade lawyer at LexSage in Toronto, says it's interesting that the U.S. is choosing to go the WTO route in this case, since the country has been dragging its foot on updates that would enhance the agency's power to mediate trade squabbles.

    The U.S. has stopped appointing people to the appellate body of the WTO that would allow it to handle more cases, more quickly, she said.

    "The U.S. is making it impossible for there to be a final decision on the five cases they just brought."

    The reason for that, she suggested, is a more sinister motive at play.

    "Without a functioning court, they can do whatever they want, because there's no one there to tell them they can't do it."

    "We are caught in a litigation limbo," said Cherniak.
     

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