一帮骗吃骗喝的主，你们晚上睡觉时问问自己：地球暖化和炭排放到底有多少屁关系？

[New Person]

Doug Ford says Trudeau's carbon tax will cause recession

Premier Doug Ford ratcheted up his rhetoric on Ottawa's climate change plan Monday, warning that the federal government's carbon tax will plunge the country into recession.

During a speech at the Economic Club of Canada, the Ontario premier said there are already warning signs of difficult economic times ahead and a carbon tax will kill jobs and hurt productivity.

"I'm here today to ring the warning bell that the risk of a carbon tax recession is very, very real," he said.

The Progressive Conservative government scrapped Ontario's cap-and-trade system after it was elected last spring saying it was a "cash grab" that didn't help the environment and have since launched a legal challenge of the federal government's carbon pricing plan.

Ford said Ontario does not need a carbon tax to help it reach its emission targets, pointing to his government's new climate change plan introduced late last year.

Ford renewed his calls for the Trudeau government to abandon its plan to put a price on carbon.

"A carbon tax will be a total economic disaster, not only for our province but for our entire country," he said. "There are already economic warning signs on the horizon."

Federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna's office did not immediately respond to request for comment.

Greenpeace Canada slammed Ford's remarks, saying the effects of climate change can't be ignored.

"We need a government committed to supporting much-needed jobs building electric vehicles, installing solar panels and other climate solutions rather than trying to boost sales of gasoline," said Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist for Greenpeace Canada.

 

[New Person]

这么说加拿大和中国比，加拿大上空的二氧化碳含量应该少。那土豆政府收碳税太不应该了，中国减排估计不可能，加拿大应该多排点，这样才会均匀分布嘛。

中国的人均排放比加拿大的少的多，但中国这几年的确在大力发展可再生能源，速度也比加拿大快的多。

 

[阿土仔]

以总理的智慧，全球暖化早就证实了，当然你无法理解也很正常

你是把总理当活佛了！

 

[光放]

“二氧化碳造成人为全球变暖"的理论是人类科学史上最大的骗局。这年头混吃混喝骗经费的所谓科学家不少，真正明白的科学家却不多。所以LZ要他们睡觉时问自己根本没用，因为大部分鼓吹者都不明白自己在说什么。

这么说加拿大和中国比，加拿大上空的二氧化碳含量应该少。那土豆政府收碳税太不应该了，中国减排估计不可能，加拿大应该多排点，这样才会均匀分布嘛。

高见，不过按热力学第三定律，不均匀是暂时的，最后还是会通过大气环流和扩散运动达到平衡。就像水缸里滴一滴墨水。

 

[光放]

这只是实验室里的结果，地球变不变暖／冷应该更大程度的取决于她在太阳系的位置和运行轨道，以及太阳的活动周期。人类活动的影响还是省省吧。

人类放在大宇宙里顶多是个屁，连鸡和蛋的关系都在那儿瞎编，像地球变暖变冷这样的“研究（骗经费活动）”就更不靠谱了。

理论上没错，但是地球在太阳系的位置和运行轨道并没有发生明显变化。太阳活动周期也没有突变。
人类活动对自然界的影响绝对不可忽略。例如，从前南方可以上游刷马桶，下游洗米。现在很多地方经过处理的水都达不到安全标准。当人类活动的破坏超过自然界自我恢复的能力的时候。不可忽略。

 

[jy]

现在经常是科学家们还争得不可开交的时候，政客们就选边给出结论了。当然是有目的的，究竟科学应该是啥结论并不重要。
当年酒精加到汽油里究竟是好是坏事对是错就是小布什总统给的结论。

 

[光放]

你比我懂行，问题很具体。

取样嘛，就世界各地气象台测量数据足以。

 

[光放]

其实这件事就是个能量守恒问题。大气层的保温系数增加（温室气体的作用）， 地球吸收太阳辐射的能量大于散发的热量。地球储存了多余的能量。其自身温度必然增加。
这里还有一个细节，很好玩儿。地球储存了多余的能量并不一定立刻使得地球变暖，而是被极地冰川融化时吸收掉了。能量被以（冰变水时的）溶解热的形式贮存了起来。但是从能量的角度，科学家把这个等同于气候变暖。

 

[c8848]

其实这件事就是个能量守恒问题。大气层的保温系数增加（温室气体的作用）， 地球吸收太阳辐射的能量大于散发的热量。地球储存了多余的能量。其自身温度必然增加。
这里还有一个细节，很好玩儿。地球储存了多余的能量并不一定立刻使得地球变暖，而是被极地冰川融化时吸收掉了。能量被以（冰变水时的）溶解热的形式贮存了起来。但是从能量的角度，科学家把这个等同于气候变暖。

有意思，也说明气候变化的复杂性。但政客只取对自己有益的，科学从来就是工具。

 

[光放]

很好！接下来的问题：

1. 计算平均温度时，电脑模式产生的各网络节点的温度需要加权处理吗？

2. 就地球表面复杂的三维空间来说，气象台的分布极不均匀。那么，气象台的数据足以表征整个地球的温度吗？

3. 地球自然系统存在许多许多相互依赖又相互制约的过程，构成纷繁复杂的正反馈和付反馈。对这些过程，我们人类真正了解多少？对我们自以为了解的有限的几个过程，有多少是基于第一原理的真正的科学理解，又有多少只是经验性的认识？

4. 电脑模式中，有多少过程描述是基于真正成熟的科学理论的，又有多少只是参数化处理？这些参数化处理用来预报未来的可靠性和误差如何？

......

还有很多，很多问题。这里不是专业论坛，我就不再问下去了。说实话，全世界成千上万鼓吹者谈到二氧化碳的“罪恶”和变暖的结论时都信心满满，可真正读过并读懂电脑模式代码所表达的科学过程并理解其不确定性的不知有几人？

首先声明我们是就是论事，绝不针对个人。
我觉得你上面的这些有点舍本逐末。首先从方法论的角度说，忽略了主要因素而去探寻次要的细微末节。

题目是“地球变暖”，而不是怎样精确测量和计算所谓的地球温度。事实上这里只要给出符合科学逻辑的定义用来描述地球是不是在变暖即可。如果按你这个思路，我们恐怕连一罐子空气都无法描述。里面到底存在多少种气体？各种气体的含量？各组分按高度的分布，温度的分布？应该在罐子里放多少个温度计，间隔没cm一个还是每毫米一个。最主要的，什么是温度？分子有温度吗？原子有温度吗？要不要测出每个空气分子的温度然后取平均？

所有学过物理的人一定知道“质点”，第一个也是最重要的物理名词或者是概念。但是，质点是不存在的！同时，质点的概念隐含着科学研究最重要的方法论。忽略所有次要因素，而只保留对你当前研究起主要作用的因素。否则你绝对无法下手。当你面对一个有100个自变量的函数时，你唯一能做的就是研究偏导数。

火箭是个庞然大物，但是在计算运行轨道的时候把它当作质点即可。 光子虽小，但是在研究量子通讯（纠缠）的时候绝对不可以看作质点，因为质点没有自旋角动量

回到地球变暖，这个没有办法通过测量或者计算得出结论。而只能是对大型事件的观察（例如冰川融化，永久冻土层的变化）以及二氧化碳对大气层散热系数的影响而得出宏观的，逻辑上的判断。

诚如你所列出的这些因素，最后得出的计算精度能有多少？误差10度，0.1度，0.01度？如果真的地球温度每年增加0.1度，相信200年内地球就无法生存了。但是无论你想的多么周到，能达到0.1度的精度吗？

判断病人术后会不会发烧是医生，看了温度计才知道病人在发烧是护士。

 

[New Person]

Doug Ford says Trudeau's carbon tax will cause recession

Premier Doug Ford ratcheted up his rhetoric on Ottawa's climate change plan Monday, warning that the federal government's carbon tax will plunge the country into recession.

During a speech at the Economic Club of Canada, the Ontario premier said there are already warning signs of difficult economic times ahead and a carbon tax will kill jobs and hurt productivity.

"I'm here today to ring the warning bell that the risk of a carbon tax recession is very, very real," he said.

The Progressive Conservative government scrapped Ontario's cap-and-trade system after it was elected last spring saying it was a "cash grab" that didn't help the environment and have since launched a legal challenge of the federal government's carbon pricing plan.

Ford said Ontario does not need a carbon tax to help it reach its emission targets, pointing to his government's new climate change plan introduced late last year.

Ford renewed his calls for the Trudeau government to abandon its plan to put a price on carbon.

"A carbon tax will be a total economic disaster, not only for our province but for our entire country," he said. "There are already economic warning signs on the horizon."

Federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna's office did not immediately respond to request for comment.

Greenpeace Canada slammed Ford's remarks, saying the effects of climate change can't be ignored.

"We need a government committed to supporting much-needed jobs building electric vehicles, installing solar panels and other climate solutions rather than trying to boost sales of gasoline," said Keith Stewart, a senior energy strategist for Greenpeace Canada.

Latest Bank of Canada statement on major risks to the economy in 2019 doesn't mention carbon tax

Mike Crawley · CBC News · Posted: Jan 22, 2019 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 4 hours ago

In a speech to the Economic Club of Canada, Ontario Premier Doug Ford warned of a 'very, very real' risk that the federal government's carbon tax will trigger a recession. (Radio-Canada)
Ontario Premier Doug Ford is warning that the federal government's carbon tax risks triggering a recession, but it's hard to find economists eager to back up his claim.

Ford used a speech to Economic Club of Canada to predict that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's carbon pricing plan will hurt the economy .

• Doug Ford says Justin Trudeau's carbon tax could cause recession
• The big questions Doug Ford will have to answer in 2019

"A carbon tax will be a total economic disaster," Ford told the estimated 1,000 paying guests at the lunchtime event in downtown Toronto on Monday.

"There are already economic warning signs on the horizon," he said. "I'm here today to ring the warning bell that the risk of a carbon tax recession is very, very real."

Ford did not offer any details in the speech about how the carbon pricing scheme would lead to recession. He did not take questions from reporters afterward.

Asked by CBC News for clarification, Ford's press secretary pointed to a study by the Conference Board of Canada that suggests a federally imposed carbon tax would shrink the nation's economy by $3 billion. While that sounds like a big number, it is only a fraction of a per cent of the country's $2.1 trillion GDP.

"Our analysis suggests the economy will shrink marginally in response to the carbon tax," the authors said. "While the overall economic impact is small, the distribution is not equal across sectors, with some industries bearing notable costs."

• Ford blames Trudeau's carbon tax for GM plant closure

The report does not say that the carbon tax will cause a recession. Nor do other economists.

In its most recent monetary policy report, the Bank of Canada lays out what it sees as the major risks to the economy in 2019. The looming carbon tax is not even mentioned as a factor.

CBC News asked economists from four of Canada's big banks to weigh in on Ford's statement on Monday, but none agreed to comment.

There's no evidence to substantiate Ford's claim, says Dale Beugin, executive director of Canada's Ecofiscal Commission. It's a group of economists specializing in economic and environmental policy, led by an advisory board that spans the political spectrum, including the former Reform Party leader Preston Manning.

According to the Ecofiscal Commission's analysis, the likely economic impacts of carbon pricing will be modest. It forecasts the Canadian economy to grow slightly more slowly than it would have without a carbon tax but to remain "a very, very far step away from a recession," said Beugin.

"That money being collected is not being burned, it is being sent back into the economy in different ways," Beugin said Monday in a phone interview with CBC News. He said the federal backstop model would keep the economy buoyant by sending carbon tax revenue back to households to be spent.

He points to the experience of jurisdictions that have put carbon pricing in place.

The British Columbia economy kept ticking along after a carbon tax was imposed in 2007 by the government of then-premier Gordon Campbell (who recently led Ford's financial commission of inquiry into Ontario's deficit). The cap-and- trade system did not tank Ontario's economy after Kathleen Wynne's Liberal government launched it in 2017. Various carbon pricing schemes did not harm the economies of Quebec, Alberta and California in recent years

"Sweden is another example where we've seen a really high carbon price over time and the economy has continued to grow even as emissions have declined," said Beugin.

Last week, a list of 45 senior economists from across the U.S. political spectrum published a statement in the Wall Street Journal endorsing a carbon tax, with all revenue given back to citizens. The list includes former White House economic advisers, treasury secretaries, Federal Reserve chairs and Nobel laureates.

This will not likely be the last time you hear the phrase "carbon tax recession" from Ford. Two conservative strategists told CBC Toronto they expect the Ontario premier will continue to use this messaging in the coming months, as carbon pricing becomes a key issue in the federal election.

 

[gocanoeing]

收上来，然后在发下去，这种行为本身就十分可疑。骗子卖拐都是这招数。

先收再退是民主社会的一个特点

 

[阿土仔]

先收再退是民主社会的一个特点

直接说土豆是骗子卖拐不就完了！

 

[soysauce]

联合国是大忽悠，诺贝尔奖评奖委员会是骗子的帮凶，签订巴黎气侯协议的195个国家都是傻子。世上只有川普、福特、稀尔和你们川粉保粉是人尖，不觉得可笑吗？
川普福特稀尔都不否认人类活动导致全球气候变暖，极端天气增多这拐，只说没钱，过一天是一天。你们这些粉好好琢磨你們偶的思想，再表衷心。

 

[zhangulei]

这只是实验室里的结果，地球变不变暖／冷应该更大程度的取决于她在太阳系的位置和运行轨道，以及太阳的活动周期。人类活动的影响还是省省吧。

人类放在大宇宙里顶多是个屁，连鸡和蛋的关系都在那儿瞎编，像地球变暖变冷这样的“研究（骗经费活动）”就更不靠谱了。

说得不错。