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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says house prices could fall 47.9 per cent peak-to-trough with an unemployment rate of 25 per cent in its worst case scenario.
That worst case outlook is for a W-shaped recovery, which is a partial recovery followed by a resurgence of COVID-19 leading to a prolonged recession and a loss of confidence. The scenario assumptions include no government assistance, stocks and oil would fall, and four mid-sized financial institutions and one private mortgage insurer would fail.
CMHC says without government intervention in such a scenario, its solvency and capitalization would be in question. Even with help, the agency says prices would fall 31.8 per cent and the unemployment rate would be 24.2 per cent.
In a U-shaped scenario, which involves a steep but short peak-to-trough decline in GDP of 7 per cent before recovery, it sees prices falling 33.9 per cent and an unemployment rate of 14.8 per cent.
That worst case outlook is for a W-shaped recovery, which is a partial recovery followed by a resurgence of COVID-19 leading to a prolonged recession and a loss of confidence. The scenario assumptions include no government assistance, stocks and oil would fall, and four mid-sized financial institutions and one private mortgage insurer would fail.
CMHC says without government intervention in such a scenario, its solvency and capitalization would be in question. Even with help, the agency says prices would fall 31.8 per cent and the unemployment rate would be 24.2 per cent.
In a U-shaped scenario, which involves a steep but short peak-to-trough decline in GDP of 7 per cent before recovery, it sees prices falling 33.9 per cent and an unemployment rate of 14.8 per cent.
