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叙利亚的反叛者是谁？8 小时前
Sebastian Usher
中东地区编辑
Getty Images 三名手持武器的年轻人站在一辆皮卡车的后面。一人拿着火箭筒，另一人拿着重机枪。前面的男子拿着 AK47 式突击步枪，举起手指敬礼。Getty Images
伊斯兰激进组织 Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) 的领导人 Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani 非常热衷于将自己标榜为叙利亚后阿萨德时代的领袖。
如果没有他的组织从其位于西北部伊德利卜省的权力基地突然对阿勒颇、然后进入哈马和霍姆斯发动毁灭性进攻，毫无疑问，过去一周半的动荡事件就不会发生。
但其他反叛组织也纷纷崛起——很可能是叙利亚全境人民都反对政权的情绪导致了政权的迅速垮台。
这些组织中——有些现在在首都大马士革——有些反叛派系曾经在叙利亚自由军的旗帜下活动，这些派系来自南部城镇，这些城镇多年来一直处于沉寂状态，但叛乱的火花从未完全扑灭。
在东部，库尔德人领导的部队利用叙利亚军队的垮台完全控制了主要城市代尔祖尔。在广阔的叙利亚沙漠中，所谓的伊斯兰国残余势力也可能利用这种情况。而在土耳其边境的北部，得到安卡拉支持的叙利亚国民军也可能成为未来局势的重要参与者。
多年来，贾瓦拉尼一直致力于改变人们对该组织的印象，使其不再因意识形态狂热而令人恐惧，而是叙利亚人可以接受其作为阿萨德政权的务实替代方案。
HTS 于 2011 年以另一个名称 Jabhat al-Nusra 成立，是基地组织的直接附属组织。
自封为伊斯兰国 (IS) 的组织的领导人阿布·巴克尔·巴格达迪也参与了该组织的组建。
它被认为是反对阿萨德总统的最有效和最致命的组织之一。
它被联合国、美国、土耳其和其他国家列为恐怖组织 - 至今仍是如此。
但贾瓦拉尼公开与基地组织断绝关系，解散了努斯拉阵线，并成立了一个新组织，一年后，该组织与其他几个类似组织合并，并更名为“解放沙姆组织”（HTS）。
当时有人怀疑——现在仍有人怀疑——HTS 是否完全放弃了与基地组织的联系。但在过去一周半的时间里，该组织传递的信息是包容性，拒绝暴力或报复。
该组织过去曾与其他反叛和反对派组织发生过内讧。这种情况很可能再次发生。
阿萨德总统统治的结束目前丝毫没有改变叙利亚内部的分裂，不同的组织控制着政府无法控制的不同领土。
HTS 为争取合法性所做的努力也因涉嫌侵犯人权而蒙羞。
叙利亚近期的政治前景如何发展，不仅取决于该组织的意图和能力，以及其他团体的竞争性主张和压力，还取决于与该国近代历史关系最为密切的主要外部大国将发挥的作用。
其中最引人注目的是支持阿萨德总统的伊朗和俄罗斯，以及支持叛军组织的土耳其，以及仍在库尔德人控制的叙利亚东部地区保持军事存在的美国。
在阿萨德王朝垮台后，他们正在努力制定新的战略方针，以服务于自己的利益，现在他们正在奋起直追。
Who are the rebels in Syria?
8 hours agoSebastian Usher
Middle East regional editor
Getty Images
The leader of the Islamist militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is very much putting himself forward as the figurehead of a post-Assad future in Syria.
Without his group's sudden, devastating advance on Aleppo and then into Hama and Homs from their powerbase in the north-western province of Idlb, there is no doubt that the tumultuous events of the past week and a half would not have happened.
But other rebel groups rose up too - and it was most likely that sense of the entirety of Syria turning on the regime that so swiftly led to its collapse.
Among these groups - some now in Damascus - are rebel factions that once operated under the banner of the Free Syrian Army from southern towns and cities that had been dormant for years, but where the spark of rebellion had never entirely been sniffed out.
Over to the east, Kurdish-led forces have benefited from the collapse of the Syrian army to take full control of the main city, Deir El-Zour. In the vast Syrian desert, remnants of the so-called Islamic State could also look to take advantage of the situation. And in the far north along the Turkish border, the Syrian National Army - backed by Ankara - could also prove to be a significant player in what happens next.
Al-Jawlani has for years endeavoured to shift the perception of his organisation from one to be feared for its ideological zealotry into one that could be accepted by Syrians as a pragmatic alternative to the Assad regime.
HTS was set up under a different name, Jabhat al-Nusra, in 2011 as a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda.
The leader of the self-styled Islamic State (IS) group, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was also involved in its formation.
It was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad.
It was proscribed as a terrorist group by the UN, the US, Turkey and other countries - and it remains so.
But al-Jawlani publicly broke ranks with al-Qaeda, dissolved Jabhat al-Nusra and set up a new organisation, which took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) when it merged with several other similar groups a year later.
There were doubts at the time - and some still remain - over whether HTS had completely renounced its links with al-Qaeda. But its message in the past week and a half has been one of inclusiveness and a rejection of violence or revenge.
The group has in the past been involved in internecine conflict with other rebel and opposition groups. That could well happen again.
The end of President Assad's rule does not in any way change for now the divisions within Syria, where different groups have held various territories outside government control.
Efforts by HTS towards legitimacy have also been tarnished by alleged human rights abuses.
How Syria's immediate political future develops will not only depend on the organisation's intentions and capabilities, as well as the competing claims and pressures from other groups, but also on the part that the major outside powers that have been most closely involved in the country's recent history will play.
They include most notably Iran and Russia - who supported President Assad - and Turkey - which has backed rebel groups -, as well as the US which still maintains a military presence in the Kurdish-held east of the country.
They are now playing catch up, as they try to set a new strategic course to serve their interests in the aftermath of the downfall of the Assad dynasty.
Who are Syrian rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS?
The Islamist militant group HTS has a long and involved history in the Syrian conflict.
www.bbc.com
