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EKOS Predicts Liberal Majority
[Ottawa – April 27, 2025] We submit our final poll for the 2025 federal election. We are selecting our 3-day rolling IVR poll as our choice to predict the final vote outcome. Our chosen final poll …
www.ekospolitics.com
EKOS Predicts Liberal Majority
[Ottawa – April 27, 2025] We submit our final poll for the 2025 federal election. We are selecting our 3-day rolling IVR poll as our choice to predict the final vote outcome. Our chosen final poll shows a stable six-point Liberal lead (43.6 per cent versus 37.5 per cent for the Conservatives), which we believe will produce a 184-seat majority government. The NDP is in a distant third place at 9.2 points.
Our final prediction of the seat outcomes is as follows:
LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GP | OTHER |
184 | 133 | 6 | 18 | 2 | 0 |
We also include a separate hybrid poll blending the 3-day IVR roll-up with a parallel online sample from our probability-based research panel, Probit. The merged poll shows a stronger 10-point lead, but we are more confident and choose the six-point lead as our prediction of vote outcome.
EKOS was alone in noting that the massive Conservative lead had evaporated by the end of January and we then saw the Liberals moving into what appeared to be a majority position roughly a month later. This has been the largest transformation of the voter landscape in modern Canadian history.
We are confident that what was driving this profound shift was a visceral public recoil from Trump 2.0. This saw Mark Carney as the most compelling option to tap burgeoning concerns with national identity and economic sovereignty. Expectations of Trump 2.0 were pretty low, nearly two-thirds of Canadians said it was worse than the humble expectations they had before watching the cavalcade of shocking announcements and appointments emanating from the Trump administration.
At the outset of this campaign, we noted that we expected some erosion of this huge new lead for the Liberals. They are, however, still 24 points ahead of how they entered the year, and poised for what appears to be a majority outcome. Notably, of the record advance vote, the Liberals have a very sizeable nine-point lead. A massive late swing to the Conservatives could prevent a majority, but this seems extremely unlikely with over 40 per cent of votes already cast. Our final days of polling also show the Conservative advantage with the yet-to-vote had disappeared (in fact, the Liberals have a three-point edge with this group), which makes any significant Conservative comeback highly improbable.
At the outset of this campaign, we noted that we expected some erosion of this huge new lead for the Liberals. They are, however, still 24 points ahead of how they entered the year, and poised for what appears to be a majority outcome. Notably, of the record advance vote, the Liberals have a very sizeable nine-point lead. A massive late swing to the Conservatives could prevent a majority, but this seems extremely unlikely with over 40 per cent of votes already cast. Our final days of polling also show the Conservative advantage with the yet-to-vote had disappeared (in fact, the Liberals have a three-point edge with this group), which makes any significant Conservative comeback highly improbable.
Citizens tell us this has been a once-in-a-lifetime election, which represents a fundamental contest for two very different alternate futures in what most believe will be a fundamentally changed world order. Most think we will come out of this in a better place despite the immediate disruption and sacrifice.
In closing, we would like to thank the tens of thousands of citizens who generously participated in our polling over the last few months.
In closing, we would like to thank the tens of thousands of citizens who generously participated in our polling over the last few months.
