My 2 cents
I believe we should also look at demographic factors in next 5 to 10 years.
The biggest change is retiring baby boomers and they are looking for downsizing instead of upgrading. This means the supply side will put consistent pressure in Ottawa markets, especially for single houses with 2600+ square ft.
Second, Gatineau market is also factor here. As long as the gap is increasing, Gatineau will attract bargain hunters from Ottawa. Remember most people will be living in big house for about 15 years when they raise family and people opt for small houses due to lower taxes and easy maintenance. Therefore, in the timeframe of 15 years or so, the price gap will decide if there is any financial benefit. Sure living in Quebec pays higher tax, but it also means lower property tax, utility bills and very cheap daycares.
On the other sides, Ottawa is government town and it is unlikely to see significant drop as happened in US markets. New immigrant are less likely settle down here compared to 2000. The tide has been changed.
I think the point is clear from above. The Ottawa house price is at peak range. The room of future increase is from cost adjustment instead of from the dynamics of supply/demand. If people are looking for upgrade, it is better to buy early since you always pay more in future. But if you think investment, multiple units and smaller house will offer better return and easy sell.
Welcome more discussion.
