Although forging such an agreement would, I believe, be much more complicated than it seems at first glance, nonetheless, in principle, if it could be achieved, that would be good. And it is basically the position being advocated by KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou today, and it is even being advocated by PRC President Hu Jintao, albeit with a "one China" precondition.
But the appropriate U.S. role in this is not so clear to me. If both sides wanted the United States to play a role, then we should seriously consider it. Otherwise, it seems to me that an American effort to shape the process would be fraught with danger.
At the same time, there are things we could do, consistent with our "one China" policy. We could, for example, make clear what may seem not terribly clear, that, as I have been saying, the United States will go along with any arrangements worked out peacefully and non-coercively by the two sides. That includes not only ultimate resolution of the cross-Strait relationship, be it independence or unification, but interim measures such as agreements to end the state of hostilities or to develop confidence-building measures.
If the United States thought that a government in Taiwan might simply give away the store, so to speak, then it might take a different stance, as that would have implications for our strategic interests. But I, for one, have far more faith in Taiwan's people and democratic process than that. Just as I think the people of Taiwan will not elect a leader who will knowingly take them over the brink of the precipice of formal independence, I also do not think they will elect one who will cede control over their security and well-being to the Mainland. Certainly neither of the current candidates would represent such dangers.
The United States might have views, we might offer advice, and we certainly would insist on close consultations-meaning more than simply informing each other of what we will be doing. But I simply do not foresee a circumstance under which the United States should, or would, try to prevent Taiwan from reaching sensible accords with the Mainland, even if it meant some adjustments in our own thinking.
Conclusion
So I answer my own question by saying, no, it is not time for a change in the U.S. "one China" policy. It does need to be better understood-including not just by interested publics, but by those charged with carrying it out, as well as by political leaders and policy-makers in Taiwan and the Mainland. And it does need to be implemented in ways that are respectful of the fundamental interests on both sides.
Both sides also need to understand that they must respect U.S. strategic national interests. That means being frank with each other when necessary, mutually supportive when possible. I would hope that the most sensitive issues could be handled quietly, behind the scenes, but unfortunately it has not always proven the most effective way of getting either side to take our interests seriously.
So, I end with a plea-a plea to the leaders in Taiwan and on the Mainland, that, as they naturally promote what they see as their own vital interests, they do so in a way that maximizes the welfare and security of the people on both sides of the Strait and that respects U.S. interests in the maintenance of peace and stability. If they fail to do so, as Secretary Christopher said, the United States "will not hesitate to take the action necessary to protect our interests."
Rather than focusing on that prospect, however, I would hope that both sides will, with U.S. encouragement, successfully search for ways to ease tensions and promote mutual interests. I am hopeful that after next May we may witness a decided upturn in cross-Strait relations, whoever is elected. That is not inevitable; it will take vision and strong leadership on all sides. But those are the qualities brought to bear on the problem, I believe that the contributions of the U.S. "one China" policy will once again become self-evident and the questions raised about it will fade. In the meantime, the policy should-and I believe will-remain in place, and it will continue to contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability, to a constructive U.S.-PRC relationship, and to the well-being and security of the people of Taiwan. And I think we all should welcome that.
But the appropriate U.S. role in this is not so clear to me. If both sides wanted the United States to play a role, then we should seriously consider it. Otherwise, it seems to me that an American effort to shape the process would be fraught with danger.
At the same time, there are things we could do, consistent with our "one China" policy. We could, for example, make clear what may seem not terribly clear, that, as I have been saying, the United States will go along with any arrangements worked out peacefully and non-coercively by the two sides. That includes not only ultimate resolution of the cross-Strait relationship, be it independence or unification, but interim measures such as agreements to end the state of hostilities or to develop confidence-building measures.
If the United States thought that a government in Taiwan might simply give away the store, so to speak, then it might take a different stance, as that would have implications for our strategic interests. But I, for one, have far more faith in Taiwan's people and democratic process than that. Just as I think the people of Taiwan will not elect a leader who will knowingly take them over the brink of the precipice of formal independence, I also do not think they will elect one who will cede control over their security and well-being to the Mainland. Certainly neither of the current candidates would represent such dangers.
The United States might have views, we might offer advice, and we certainly would insist on close consultations-meaning more than simply informing each other of what we will be doing. But I simply do not foresee a circumstance under which the United States should, or would, try to prevent Taiwan from reaching sensible accords with the Mainland, even if it meant some adjustments in our own thinking.
Conclusion
So I answer my own question by saying, no, it is not time for a change in the U.S. "one China" policy. It does need to be better understood-including not just by interested publics, but by those charged with carrying it out, as well as by political leaders and policy-makers in Taiwan and the Mainland. And it does need to be implemented in ways that are respectful of the fundamental interests on both sides.
Both sides also need to understand that they must respect U.S. strategic national interests. That means being frank with each other when necessary, mutually supportive when possible. I would hope that the most sensitive issues could be handled quietly, behind the scenes, but unfortunately it has not always proven the most effective way of getting either side to take our interests seriously.
So, I end with a plea-a plea to the leaders in Taiwan and on the Mainland, that, as they naturally promote what they see as their own vital interests, they do so in a way that maximizes the welfare and security of the people on both sides of the Strait and that respects U.S. interests in the maintenance of peace and stability. If they fail to do so, as Secretary Christopher said, the United States "will not hesitate to take the action necessary to protect our interests."
Rather than focusing on that prospect, however, I would hope that both sides will, with U.S. encouragement, successfully search for ways to ease tensions and promote mutual interests. I am hopeful that after next May we may witness a decided upturn in cross-Strait relations, whoever is elected. That is not inevitable; it will take vision and strong leadership on all sides. But those are the qualities brought to bear on the problem, I believe that the contributions of the U.S. "one China" policy will once again become self-evident and the questions raised about it will fade. In the meantime, the policy should-and I believe will-remain in place, and it will continue to contribute to the maintenance of peace and stability, to a constructive U.S.-PRC relationship, and to the well-being and security of the people of Taiwan. And I think we all should welcome that.
