[ZT]
I'm not sure who decided that this should lean TCTC but I live in this riding and can say it's not close at all.
1) Karen is a respected M.P. who has brought a good number of investments to the riding, has been incredibly active on behalf of her constituents and she won alot of plaudits for basically spending weeks helping out with the massive flooding that happened in the NW part of the riding. She was also a huge help to Dunrobin during the tornado and that has not been forgotten there.
2) She won alot of respect too for how she handled the situation when the previous MPP for the area, Jack MacLaren, slandered her with crude sexual remarks at a community dinner in the rural area of the riding about 2.5 years ago.
3) She's a veteran, and a well-decorated one, whose service is well-known and highly regarded in the community.
4) Justina McCaffrey has done herself no favours with her friendship with Faith Goldy, nor did she do well when approached by reporters and she literally ran away, jumped in a car and it peeled out of the parking lot. The Faith Goldy issue isn't going away for her either and she's been pretty well in hiding since then.
5) At a recent debate in one of the more rural parts of the ward, McCaffrey flat out couldn't answer any questions about agriculture issues so instead resorted to reading verbatim talking points given to her by the party. She also promptly left after and didn't work the room. That was noted by many attendees and not in a positive way.
6) One of JM's supporters put up her sign and next to it a self-made sign saying that the residents of that house shoot every second Liberal. And, for the second time, national media was focused on Kanata Carleton and not in a positive way as it relates to the CPC candidate.
7) Karen won, yes in a wave, by 12 points in 2015. I expect that she'll hold this riding by 6 points this time out -- even voters soured on the PM aren't soured on Karen and that's something I am hearing quite often in the community.