川普重启经济受挫,美股会不会重现熔断

春夏秋鼕

知名会员
注册
2014-10-19
消息
3,555
荣誉分数
859
声望点数
123
U.S. economy suffers titanic 32.9% plunge in 2nd quarter and points to drawn-out recovery
Coronavirus triggers steepest recession since World War Two
Jeffry BartashPublished: July 30, 2020 at 10:23 a.m. ET

Economic Report
By

MW-IL422_gdp_ec_20200729162442_ZQ.jpg

An airport employee performs an aircraft disinfecting demonstration at the Ronald Reagan National Airport. The U.S. economy cratered a record 32.9% in the second quarter because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Getty Images
The numbers: An economy badly battered by the coronavirus shrank at a record 32.9% annual pace in the second quarter, underscoring just how big a hole the U.S. finds itself in as it labors to recover from the deepest recession in American history.
MW-IL445_GDPC1_20200730090458_ZQ.png

The tidal wave of damage from the first global pandemic in a century was almost as bad as Wall Street expected. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 35% decline in gross domestic product at an annual pace, the official scorecard of the U.S. economy.
MW-IL463_gdp_07_20200730094642_ZQ.jpg

The economy began to recover in mid-May after a severe contraction at the beginning of the quarter, but the U.S. faces a long road back, analysts say. Millions of Americans are still out of work, thousands of businesses have closed and many of those that remain open have had to scale back operations because of tepid demand or ongoing government restrictions.
The recent surge in coronavirus cases in about half of U.S. states, especially large ones such as Texas, Florida and California, has also dealt a blow to a fragile economic recovery.
Read:Consumer confidence wanes in July and points to rockier economic recovery
Previously GDP had never shrunk by more than 10% on an annualized basis in any quarter since the government began keeping track shortly after World War Two.
What happened: Consumer spending, the main engine of the economy, contracted by a record 34.6% annualized clip in the spring.
The decline was especially sharp in services — travel, tourism, medical care, eating out and the like. Businesses that rely on large groups of customers and heavy store traffic bore the brunt of government lockdowns after the pandemic erupted. Spending on services nosedived at a 43.5% annual pace.
Households also spent far less on goods, though the decline wasn’t quite as steep. Purchases dropped 11.3%. Americans bought more cars, groceries and certain other household staples with many working from home, but sales of clothing, gasoline and many other goods all fell sharply.
Read:Jobless claims rise for second straight week as U.S. economic activity slows down
Business investment also stumbled badly as companies froze or slashed spending. Outlays on infrastructure such as oil rigs sank 35% while spending on equipment shrank by 37.7%. Both are record declines.
Investment in new housing also shriveled up by 38.7%, but it appears to have sprung back quickly. Record low mortgage rates have spawned a rash of new home sales and spurred builders to step up construction toward the end of the quarter.
The level of inventories also shrank by a whopping $234.6 billion annual rate in the second quarter, compared to an $80 billion dropoff in the first quarter.
Companies cut back on production as sales slumped and exports tumbled. That’s also weighed heavily on the economy, though production has picked up in the last few months after the economy largely reopened.
Government spending was a mixed bag. The federal government stepped in with massive infusions of aid for businesses, households and the unemployed, but states and localities have suffered a big drop in tax revenue even as expenses soared.
Overall government outlays edged up 2.7% in the spring. Federal spending jumped more than 17%, offsetting a 5.6% decline in state and local outlays.
International trade was a smaller drag on the economy. Exports dwindled by 64% in the second quarter, topping a 53% drop in imports. The coronavirus caused massive disruptions in the flow of global trade and a worldwide economic slump resulted in far less demand.
Read:U.S. trade deficit in goods falls 6% as exports rebound, but the big picture is still ugly
It may be months if not years before trade fully recovers, economists say, especially with the U.S. and China still at loggerheads on a number of issues. The two countries have the world’s largest economies.
The rate of inflation, meanwhile, fell at a 1.9% pace in the second quarter after increasing early in the year. The cost of many goods and services have fallen as companies cut prices to try to drum up sales. Inflation is likely to remain low until the pandemic fades.
Looking back at the first quarter, the originally reported 5% drop in GDP was unchanged. The pandemic struck in early March and tore a huge hole the economy in the final month of the quarter.
Big picture: The economy is primed to expand in the third quarter, but the surge in coronavirus cases in many U.S. states has already taken some air out of the recovery. Economists polled by MarketWatch predict GDP will expand at an 18% annual pace from July to September, though estimates are likely to be ratcheted down.
The path of the recovery depends heavily on whether Congress passes another massive relief package, economists say, and whether the pandemic is brought under control again. Prolonged uncertainty will only cause Americans to save more and spend less, thus hurting the economy.
Read:Capitol Hill talks on next COVID-19 financial aid bill stuck in neutral
What they are saying?: “The virus is the boss,” said corporate economist Robert Frick of Navy Federal Credit Union. “The longer this goes on, the deeper the damage.”
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.63% and S&P 500 index SPX, -1.25% fell sharply in Thursday trades.
Read full story
Read Next
U.S. GDP likely sank a record 35% in the 2nd quarter after coronavirus ravaged the economy

The U.S. suffered the biggest economic decline in the second quarter since the government began keeping track after World War Two. How much? Try 30% — or more.
More On MarketWatch
About the Author

Jeffry Bartash is a reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Partner Center
Most Popular

Advertisement
 

向问天

日月神教光明左使
VIP
注册
2012-09-04
消息
60,335
荣誉分数
10,978
声望点数
1,273
病毒厲害,聽說來自中國。

:monster:
 
注册
2014-02-10
消息
1,685
荣誉分数
260
声望点数
93
所在地
Ottawa
应该不会,不是又要印一万亿吗。有美元的赶紧投资吧,如果再印个几万亿,手中的美钞就不值钱了。
 

向问天

日月神教光明左使
VIP
注册
2012-09-04
消息
60,335
荣誉分数
10,978
声望点数
1,273
增長負 33% 到底啥意思?
比如去年GDP 10億,現在只剩下 6.7億了嗎?
 

2005

本站元老
注册
2004-12-19
消息
2,783
荣誉分数
1,058
声望点数
323
看了彭博社的,是这么说
Gross domestic product shrank 9.5% in the second quarter from the first, a drop that equals an annualized pace of 32.9%。
大意是按照第二季比第一季shrank 9.5%的速度下去相当于全年shrank 32.9%的意思
 

网名

.
注册
2015-01-08
消息
2,384
荣誉分数
1,012
声望点数
223
本轮股市过山车远远没有结束。“熔断”必然“重现”,只是个时间问题。
 

lindamy

时代广场舞照跳
VIP
注册
2005-11-23
消息
25,368
荣誉分数
6,305
声望点数
373
很可能重现,记得哪天只差一点点,已经降了6.9%。
 

臭农民

农民
VIP
注册
2012-02-28
消息
38,440
荣誉分数
10,269
声望点数
1,273
你们手里有美股还是有option?
 

sdzhangtao

资深人士
注册
2003-04-24
消息
1,565
荣誉分数
501
声望点数
273
向上还是向下,别搞错了方向。我三月份就是预测准确,但是模型做反了。
现在就剩印钞机还好使。
 

阿土仔

本站元老
VIP
注册
2007-01-19
消息
19,791
荣誉分数
6,595
声望点数
373
向上还是向下,别搞错了方向。我三月份就是预测准确,但是模型做反了。
现在就剩印钞机还好使。
都在印,美国是明印,中国是暗印。
 

网名

.
注册
2015-01-08
消息
2,384
荣誉分数
1,012
声望点数
223
向上还是向下,别搞错了方向。我三月份就是预测准确,但是模型做反了。
现在就剩印钞机还好使。

现在这情况,想搞对方向非常不容易。经济一塌糊涂,对股市泰山压顶;全球央行一起发力,如众大力神一般把股市和泰山一起往上托。短期内,大力神赢了,泰山输了。长期看,谁输谁赢。真难说。在此情况下,要么袖手旁观,远离股市,等待时机;要么安排好对冲,无论涨落,都有输有赢,伤不到筋骨。当然,如果有超出凡人的判断力,也可以按一个方向继续出手,赚个盆满钵满。但一般人这么做,风险太大。
 

冷笑卅声

初级会员
注册
2014-03-25
消息
649
荣誉分数
203
声望点数
53
看了彭博社的,是这么说
Gross domestic product shrank 9.5% in the second quarter from the first, a drop that equals an annualized pace of 32.9%。
大意是按照第二季比第一季shrank 9.5%的速度下去相当于全年shrank 32.9%的意思


新闻怎么都这么不要脸。。。
这写法是要发到微信上呀
 
顶部