《纽约时报》俄罗斯正在五个地方争夺突破乌克兰防线

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乌克兰为阻止俄罗斯的进攻正在进行殊死的战斗。

俄罗斯军队周六黎明前占领了乌克兰长期据点阿夫季夫卡,这是莫斯科自去年五月占领巴克穆特以来在战场上取得的首个重大胜利

但在整个600英里长的战线上,乌克兰在没有美国新的军事援助的情况下弹药短缺,而且在经历了两年的残酷战斗后,它正在挣扎的补充自己耗尽的兵力。

俄罗斯的攻击已分为五条主要攻击线,横跨乌克兰东部和南部前线大部分地区的城镇和城市。 以下是俄罗斯在五场关键战役中的进攻状况:

1.阿夫迪夫卡---俄罗斯占领了乌克兰的一个长期据点

现已被摧毁的阿夫迪夫卡市仅占地约 12 平方英里。 但在十年的大部分时间里,它在前线形成了一个突出部分,破坏了俄罗斯关键的后勤行动。 它距离顿涅茨克市仅几英里,该市自 2014 年以来一直被俄罗斯占领。

最近几周,俄罗斯军队突破了一条重要的补给线,并威胁要包围乌克兰士兵。 乌克兰南部军队领导人亚历山大·塔尔纳夫斯基表示,乌克兰别无选择,只能撤军。

他在一份声明中说:“在敌人以10比1的炮弹优势向己方士兵尸体推进的情况下,在不断的轰炸下,这是唯一的解决方案。”

目前还不清楚俄罗斯人能够将这场战斗推进到阿夫季夫卡之外多远,也不清楚乌克兰人的下一道防线建设得如何。 但接下来的主要人口中心,有数万名平民居住,距离西部仅约 35 英里。

尽管人数有所波动,但大约有 50,000 名俄罗斯士兵一直致力于为阿夫季夫卡而战。 据西方和乌克兰官员称,数万名俄罗斯人被杀或受伤,但俄罗斯一直在稳步补充人员,包括使用囚犯参加战斗。

即使在俄罗斯人占领这座城市后防线稳定下来,它的陷落也使得俄罗斯军队能够在向其他方向施压时更有效地将部队和装备转移到防线后面

2.马林卡 --- 一座被摧毁的城镇现在成为俄罗斯袭击的基地。

到上个月,俄罗斯军队终于清除了另一个长期前线城镇马林卡的最后乌克兰守军。

经过两年俄罗斯的轰炸和战斗,马林卡已经所剩无几。 但它的占领使俄罗斯人能够将注意力转向南部和乌克兰的另一个重要据点武赫莱达尔。

去年,俄罗斯多次试图从南部攻击武赫莱达尔,但遭受了灾难性的损失,其中包括在战争中最大规模的坦克战之一中惨败。

但随着马林卡的控制,俄罗斯人正在从北部攻击武赫莱达尔。 他们目前正在穿过东北约 13 英里的 Novomykhailivka 村。

目前尚不清楚俄罗斯在这个方向集结了多少兵力,但乌克兰官员表示,俄罗斯在附近的马里乌波尔地区保留了约 4 万名兵力,以应对来自南方的袭击。

在武勒达尔地区作战的士兵表示,东北方 55 英里处的阿夫季夫卡的陷落可能会让俄罗斯军队腾出手来,从北部加强进攻。

3. 罗布坦---俄罗斯正寻求扭转乌克兰去年最大的成果。

去年,当乌克兰失败的夏季反攻达到高潮时,其军队仅成功推进到南部前线约十英里,到达了一个小村庄罗布坦附近。

俄罗斯现在似乎决心赢回失去的一切。

在南部作战的乌克兰士兵发言人德米特罗·利霍维(Dmytro Lykhovii)本周表示,俄罗斯军队在该战线上集中的兵力比阿夫季夫卡战线上的兵力还要多。

他说:“俄罗斯人似乎已经设定了目标,希望通过猛攻在那里取得一些成功,就像他们在阿夫季夫卡试图做的那样。”

4. 克雷明纳

俄罗斯正在从克雷明纳发起进攻,收复 2022 年底被乌克兰夺走的东北部城镇。

自从一年多前俄罗斯人被赶出乌克兰东北部的被占领土——失去对11,000平方公里的500多个定居点的控制——以来,他们一直在努力夺回它。

去年,尽管沿前线的林带发生了激烈的战斗,但几乎没有领土易手。 现在,俄罗斯又开始向前迈进,尽管面对乌克兰的激烈抵抗,进展缓慢。

俄罗斯军队从克雷明纳市向两个方向推进:向北方向饱受摧残的库皮安斯克市,以及向南 80 英里处的莱曼方向。 该地区军方发言人伊利亚·耶夫拉什(Illia Yevlash)本月早些时候告诉记者,尽管遭受了损失,俄罗斯在该地区的总兵力数月仍维持在约11万名。

5. 巴赫穆特市

俄罗斯已经恢复了势头,乌克兰的一座主要城市可能会进入炮火范围。

俄罗斯于 5 月摧毁并占领了巴赫穆特市,这是俄罗斯在本周向阿夫季夫卡进军之前在战场上取得的最后一个重要领土。 当俄国人占领巴赫穆特时,他们的兵力已经耗尽,而领导战斗的瓦格纳雇佣军团体公开叛乱俄罗斯国防部。

乌克兰希望利用混乱的局势对城市侧翼进行反击,但这一计划基本陷入停滞。 现在,掌握主动权的是俄罗斯人。

新任命的乌克兰军队司令亚历山大·西尔斯基将军最近表示,俄罗斯决心突破他们在恰西夫亚尔周围的防御,这将使他们控制该地区的制高点,并使克拉马托尔斯克市暴露在更多的炮火之下。 据乌克兰估计,巴赫穆特方向约有 62,000 名俄罗斯士兵。

西尔斯基将军在本月早些时候的一份声明中表示:“局势紧张,需要不断监测整体局势并迅速做出实地决策。”

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City’s Fall Leaves Ukraine With an Even Tougher Fight Ahead

Thomas Gibbons-Neff Reporting from Sumy, Ukraine

With the Russian military’s capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka on Saturday, the front line has shifted substantially, setting the stage for the war’s next grueling chapter as Ukrainian forces retrench and Russian troops reform for future assaults.

Ukraine’s defeat in the embattled city, under attack since 2014, when Russian-backed separatists fought government forces for control of the country’s east, comes at an especially perilous time. As Russia’s full-scale invasion enters its third year, Ukrainian forces are low on ammunition and facing an increasing shortage of troops.

In the retreat from Avdiivka, these problems are exacerbated by the flat and unforgiving terrain outside the city. Without dominant hills, larger rivers or extensive fortifications of the kind it built around Avdiivka over the better part of a decade, Ukraine will probably have to cede more ground to hold back Russian units.

“They don’t have a well-established secondary line to pull back to,” said Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said in a telephone interview. “Much depends on whether Russian forces can keep pushing or if they run out of momentum.”

Even now, Russian troops, despite taking heavy casualties during their assault on Avdiivka, are applying pressure on various parts of the more than 600-mile front line, hoping that Ukraine cannot defend everywhere at once.

Where Russia will try to surge forward next is not yet known. The northeastern city of Kupiansk, the eastern town of Chasiv Yar and the southern village of Robotyne are all under threat, even with the smoke still settling around the ruins of Avdiivka.

In recent months, deep anti-tank trenches have appeared around eastern Ukrainian cities and towns near Avdiivka, such as Pokrovsk, roughly 30 miles to the west. But closer to the fighting, especially near Avdiivka, it’s unclear if Ukrainian brigades have the resources to withstand another offensive like the one that enveloped the city, or if Russian troops will be able to keep attacking after months of sustained combat.

Ukraine’s defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said plainly in a Facebook post on Saturday that some of the lessons learned from the fall of the city included the need for “building and strengthening” fortifications.

The Russian Army’s tactic of using its sheer size to overwhelm the smaller Ukrainian military enabled its most decisive battlefield victories after its defeats around Kyiv, Kharkiv and Kherson in 2022.

But, nearly two years later, military aid to Ukraine from Western allies, especially the United States, has slowed to a trickle because of political infighting in Washington, leaving ample room for Russia to gain fire superiority. Ukraine has tried to bridge that gap with self-exploding drones but is far from reaching any kind of parity with Russian forces, Ukrainian troops have said.


U.S. officials said that it was not too late to shore up Ukrainian forces if more aid could be funneled through quickly. An infusion of artillery and other munitions could prevent the strained Russian forces from quickly making another push.

But in the absence of additional support, the officials added, Russia will eventually build on its military victory in Avdiivka and continue to push back Ukrainian units and seize more of Ukraine’s east, one of the Kremlin’s key war aims.

Avdiivka, with a prewar population of around 30,000 people, was practically a fortress when Russian troops began their large assault last fall. The Kremlin’s military formations suffered thousands of casualties, and a significant loss of tanks and other armored vehicles, as Ukrainian troops held on.

But still, Russia’s forces continued to press, with its infantry attacking in smaller groups. That change of tactics, coupled with an increasing number of drones, a much higher volume of artillery and a flood of airstrikes, pushed Ukraine’s beleaguered forces to the breaking point.

“One of the key events from 2023 was that Russia was able to recruit a large number of volunteers,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, which is based in Philadelphia. “The flip side is that this is happening right as Ukraine is facing mobilization problems.”

Ukrainian leaders responded to the gathering pressure by rushing in a medley of special units and the Third Separate Assault Brigade, an experienced infantry unit with a far-right heritage, to plug the gap and eventually help the retreat. A soldier with the brigade said they had been taken off the front line around the eastern city of Bakhmut in recent months and had only a short time to recuperate before being sent to Avdiivka as firefighters.

The exhausting of one of Ukraine’s best units during a time of crisis, military analysts said, points to a growing problem in Ukrainian ranks: There are simply not enough troops to go around on the front.

“Ukraine sent in their best units because the force in Avdiivka was being steadily depleted and needed to withdraw,” Mr. Kofman said. “Besides a lack of ammunition, Ukraine has serious manpower issues, particularly when it comes to infantry.”

Though Ukrainian officials keep casualty numbers a secret, a recent push by military officials to mobilize up to 500,000 more troops highlights the toll of a war that looks far from ending. Morale, too, is dwindling, Ukrainian soldiers have said in recent weeks, compounded by shortages of troops and ammunition, mounting casualties and shorter times off the front.

But exactly how and where that may show on the battlefield is anyone’s guess.

 

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