美国债收益率持续上升，股市全面下跌，道指降816点

A poor auction at 1 p.m. ET for 20-year debt was the catalyst for taking yields to their highs of the session. BMO called the 20-year auction “lackluster.” The fear is that the buying appetite for U.S. Treasurys could be drying up as the supply of new debt to pay our bills increases.

今天美债拍卖lackluster，靠印钱又拿关税逼终究要还的，6月有大量国债要展期，高利息不可延续。

有人怪前美聯儲主席耶倫老奶奶多年前搞了太多美债，耶倫说她发国债都是低息可延续的，现在又有人说耶倫当年应该多发行30年低息国债。

好像报道日本也要爆，因为低利息走高，日本高额国债面临巨大风险
 
While a 4.5% level on the 10-year isn’t as bad as the 5% yields seen in 2007 and in 2023, the volatility in the bond market that has emerged in 2025 erodes confidence in Treasuries as a reliable place to hide out times of stress.

Japanese government bonds have arguably fared worse. The 30-year bond yield surged to 3.1872%, the highest intraday level on record, according to data dating back to 2006. Yields on Japanese 40-year bonds also hit an intraday record. Across the Atlantic, long-dated U.K. government bond yields also rose, though their ascent was less pronounced. They are at their highest levels since mid-April.


国债搞成石油那种大服务波动，失去了定海神针的投资稳定性。

日本长期国债利率升高，因为占GDP过高，面临巨大风险。

有分析认为台湾可能面临巨大金融危机，因为台湾保险业大多拿保险资金换美元买美债，而台币因为川普逼迫短期升值超过10%，会面临巨大损失和金融风险，如果美债再贬值（收益率和美债价值相反）, 风险急剧上升
 
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各州造反​

U.S. states mount court challenge to Trump’s tariffs​

By Reuters
Published: May 21, 2025 at 7:07AM EDT
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U.S. President Donald Trump smiles as he speaks in the Oval Office of the White House, Tuesday, May 20, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
NEW YORK - Twelve U.S. states will ask a federal court on Wednesday to halt President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, arguing that he overstepped his authority by declaring a national emergency to impose across-the-board taxes on imports from nations that sell more to the U.S. than they buy.

A three-judge panel of the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade will hear arguments in a lawsuit brought by the Democratic attorneys general of New York, Illinois, Oregon, and nine other states. They say the Republican president has sought a “blank check” to regulate trade “at his whim.”

The states claim the president badly misinterpreted a law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to justify the tariffs. The law is meant to address “unusual and extraordinary” threats to the U.S.

Trump has said the U.S.’s decades-long history of importing more than it exports is a national emergency that has harmed U.S. manufacturers. But the states argue the U.S. trade deficit is not an “emergency” and that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs at all.

The same three-judge panel heard arguments last week in a similar case brought by five small businesses, and it is expected to issue a decision in the coming weeks.

Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield said that the tariffs were raising prices for Oregon families and small businesses, and they will cost the average family an extra US$3,800 a year.

“President Trump imposed his tariffs without Congress, public input, or restraint – and claims the courts can’t review his decisions," Rayfield said. “This is a misuse of emergency powers.”

The Justice Department has said the states’ lawsuit should be dismissed because the states have only alleged “speculative economic losses” instead of concrete harms from the tariffs. It has also argued that only Congress, not U.S. states or the courts, can challenge a national emergency declared by the president under IEEPA.

A DOJ spokesperson said the department “will continue to vigorously defend President Trump’s agenda to confront unfair trade practices in court.”

After imposing tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada in February, Trump imposed a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff on all imports in April, with higher rates for countries with which the U.S. has the largest trade deficits, particularly China. Many of those country-specific tariffs were paused a week later, and the Trump administration temporarily reduced the steepest tariffs on China this month while working on a longer-term trade deal.

Trump’s on-again-off-again tariffs have shocked U.S. markets. He has framed them as a way to restore U.S. manufacturing capability.

The states’ lawsuit is one of at least seven court challenges to Trump’s tariff policies. California has filed a separate challenge in federal court in San Francisco, and other lawsuits have been filed by businesses, legal advocacy groups and members of the Blackfeet Nation.

Decisions from the court, which hears disputes involving international trade and customs laws, can be appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington, D.C., and ultimately the U.S. Supreme Court.

Reporting by Dietrich Knauth, Editing by Alexia Garamfalvi and David Gregorio, Reuters
www.bnnbloomberg.ca

U.S. states mount court challenge to Trump’s tariffs

Twelve U.S. states will ask a federal court on Wednesday to halt President Donald Trump’s tariffs, arguing that he overstepped his authority by declaring a national emergency to impose across-the-board taxes on imports from nations that sell more to the U.S. than they buy.
www.bnnbloomberg.ca www.bnnbloomberg.ca
 
里根撒切尔时代开始了劫贫济富的减税，掏空了国家，打垮了中产，这条路差不多要走到头了。底子差一点的英国，差点被特拉斯搞崩掉。
 
RareEarth 说:
里根撒切尔时代开始了劫贫济富的减税，掏空了国家，打垮了中产，这条路差不多要走到头了。底子差一点的英国，差点被特拉斯搞崩掉。
点击展开...

里根撒切尔的八九十年代是人类文明的巅峰，最根本的动力是冷战积累的科技成果最终孕育出第四次科技革命。现在是存量博弈，没有新的驱动力，无论是里根撒切尔，还是习近平或者邓小平，都搞不定。中产萎缩，消费降级是世界性趋势。
 
RareEarth 说:
里根撒切尔时代开始了劫贫济富的减税，掏空了国家，打垮了中产，这条路差不多要走到头了。底子差一点的英国，差点被特拉斯搞崩掉。
点击展开...
我很想知道，你怎么收富豪的税？
 
知更鸟 说:
可以查查里根之前美国的个人税。
点击展开...
mmexport1747932837501.webp


美国最强大的时候，其实是二战以后个人税率最高的时候。

里根时代减税和全球化是造成美国目前这种赤字，贫富极度分化，中产萎缩, 制造业外移的根源。
虽然经济看似极度繁荣，但是属于给病人打吗啡，短期效益，治标没治本。

其实美国历史上巨大变革大都是共和党搞的。另一个大改革是尼克松取消金本位，赖了全世界的帐给里根改革打下了基础。
 
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billwanhua 说:
浏览附件1176233

美国最强大的时候，其实是二战以后个人税率最高的时候。

里根时代减税和全球化是造成美国目前这种赤字，贫富极度分化，中产萎缩, 制造业外移的根源。
虽然经济看似极度繁荣，但是属于给病人打吗啡，短期效益，治标没治本。

其实美国历史上巨大变革大都是共和党搞的。另一个大改革是尼克松取消金本位，赖了全世界的帐给里根改革打下了基础。
点击展开...

​

罗斯福新政​

背景：大萧条​

编辑

​

编辑
主条目：大萧条
1929至1933年间，工业的产出下降了三分之一。价格下降了20%，造成通货紧缩，使得偿还债务更为困难。美国的失业率从4%增加到25%。除此之外，所有受雇者中的三分之一被调降为支领较低薪资的临时工作。综合起来说，全国几乎达50%的人力闲置。

美国于大萧条期间的失业率与近百年失业率的比较
新政之前，银行内的存款没有保险，当数以千计的银行倒闭时，存户也损失了他们的存款。当时没有国家安全网、没有公共失业保险、也没有社会安全法案。救济穷人的责任在于家庭、私人慈善机构、与地方政府，但是年复一年却每况愈下，需求直升、救济的资源远远供不应求。

萧条的经济摧毁了这个国家。当罗斯福在1933年宣誓就职时，州政府已经关闭了所有的银行，没有人可以兑现支票或取得他们的存款。失业率大约是25%，而且在主要的工业或矿业中心更高。1929年农业的收入下降超过50%。1930到1933年间，844,000件非农场房贷被扣押，总计达五百万美元。政治与商业领袖都害怕即将发生革命以及后续的无政府状态。在大萧条期间仍旧很富裕的老约瑟夫·P·肯尼迪在数年之后说道：“在那些日子里，我曾说过我愿意分出一半的财产──如果我可以确定法律与秩序能让我保有剩下的一半的话。”

那时候可能富人穷人都走投无路了吧
 
阿土仔 说:
我很想知道，你怎么收富豪的税？
点击展开...

你只要知道谁是米国减税的最大收益者，答案不就出来了。这么简单的问题也好意思问
 
最后编辑:
welcomelm 说:
里根撒切尔的八九十年代是人类文明的巅峰，最根本的动力是冷战积累的科技成果最终孕育出第四次科技革命。现在是存量博弈，没有新的驱动力，无论是里根撒切尔，还是习近平或者邓小平，都搞不定。中产萎缩，消费降级是世界性趋势。
点击展开...

居然学会说存量博弈了。呵呵

正是因为存量博弈，利益倾斜更容易激化矛盾
 
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