Federal Election 2011 Seat Prejection

[CHRIS88]

Actually it is the voter turnout rate.

Thanks.

 

[ccc]

there is a possibility of swopping between L and B. Something like C, B, L, & N

At this stage, any prediction is possible and reasonable.

 

[CHRIS88]

there is a possibility of swopping between L and B. Something like C, B, L, & N

I certainly hope that will not happen. It means the BQ will become the official opposition and they have absolutely no interest in the interest of the country!

 

[Obiwan]

I certainly hope that will not happen. It means the BQ will become the official opposition and they have absolutely no interest in the interest of the country!

It happened before. Remember the time at post Mulroney era, when PC only had 2 seats and Bloc was the official opposition party.

 

[CHRIS88]

It happened before. Remember the time at post Mulroney era, when PC only had 2 seats and Bloc was the official opposition party.

That indeed happened.

I guess Mr. Harper needs to do a little more to help Mr. Ignatieff secure the second position in the House.

 

[Obiwan]

If we get another minority government (most likely), it doesn't really matter how many seats Bloc gets.

 

[CHRIS88]

If we get another minority government (most likely), it doesn't really matter how many seats Bloc gets.

You seem to suggest that the official opposition has a larger role in a majority scenario than in a minority one. Could you explain why?

 

[Obiwan]

You seem to suggest that the official opposition has a larger role in a majority scenario than in a minority one. Could you explain why?

It is all about the bargaining power. When there is a minority government, Harper government will have to consider the needs from all other opposition parties to ensure they don't topple his government.

 

[bsecurity]

Anything could happen.

 

[Silverlake]

It is all about the bargaining power. When there is a minority government, Harper government will have to consider the needs from all other opposition parties to ensure they don't topple his government.

Yeah, until he wants another election.

 

[CHRIS88]

It is all about the bargaining power. When there is a minority government, Harper government will have to consider the needs from all other opposition parties to ensure they don't topple his government.

The point is, in a minority scenario with the BQ as the official opposition, we may have more chances to see frequent non-confidence votes, leading to a less stable government.

 

[Obiwan]

The point is, in a minority scenario with the BQ as the official opposition, we may have more chances to see frequent non-confidence votes, leading to a less stable government.

only if the liberal and NDP went along with BQ. You got a point in terms of a less stable government, which I have mentioned in other post that how come we don't try for a coalition government, and why people are so afraid of give it a shot, nobody has experienced it before in Canada, why people are so against it basing on what?

 

[CHRIS88]

Looks like the Tories is edging into a majority with a very comfortable lead.

Nanos
Mar 30-Apr 1
n=1200
error= +/- 2.8 %
Undecided: 20.5 %

BQ 9
CPC 42
GREENS 4
Lib 30
NDP 16

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html#NATIONAL

 

[ccc]

Looks like the Tories is edging into a majority with a very comfortable lead.

Nanos
Mar 30-Apr 1
n=1200
error= +/- 2.8 %
Undecided: 20.5 %

BQ 9
CPC 42
GREENS 4
Lib 30
NDP 16

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/polls.html#NATIONAL

这并不意味着保守党会赢得多数席位。何况error= +/- 2.8 %。

另外请注意，取得多数靠的是席位，不是popular votes。

众议院308席，至少赢得155席才会是多数。议会解散前，保守党占143席。这些席位全保住，还须夺取至少12个新的选区。

 

[CHRIS88]

这并不意味着保守党会赢得多数席位。何况error= +/- 2.8 %。

另外请注意，取得多数靠的是席位，不是popular votes。

众议院308席，至少赢得155席才会是多数。议会解散前，保守党占143席。这些席位全保住，还须夺取至少12个新的选区。

从历史上看，41%可以获得议会席位的多数了。当然，现在41%不等于投票时也是41%。保守党的同志们还需再接再厉继续努力。