有懂这个的给解释解释:摩根大通巨额亏损内幕

行 书

行千里路读万卷书
VIP
注册
2012-01-27
消息
203
荣誉分数
23
声望点数
78
明报
  全美最大银行摩根大通声称因「对交易」失误,6周来损失逾20亿美元(约155亿港元)。总裁戴蒙承认监督不力、咎由自取,但否认损失源自「坐盘交易」。事件矛头直指一名绰号「佛地魔」的交易员,因大手沽「信贷违约掉期指数」(CDS Index,简称违约指数)导致损失,但消息指管理层对有关交易一直知情。今次事件重挫摩根大通及戴蒙的声誉,摩通股价昨急挫9%。

  摩通昨天凌晨在美股收市后召开紧急股东电话会议,长期以来获称为「华尔街之王」的总裁戴蒙(James Dimon)承认,旗下CIO投资部门,因对策略失当,「按市价计值」导致超过20亿美元的损失。

  戴蒙没交代失误细节,亦没透露损失涉及哪一种投资工具,但坚称没有违反美国国会正在商讨落实的「沃尔克法则」(Volcker rule)中,有关禁止「坐盘交易」的规定。所谓「坐盘交易」,就是指金融机构动用自己的资本在市场投资,而非代表客户进行交易。

  今次蒙受损失的CIO投资部门,主要负责处理银行的「过剩存款」(excess deposits,即客户在摩通的总存款额,减去摩通向外借贷总额的余额),达3600亿美元,戴蒙指「沃尔克法则」容许银行利用此类资金进行交易,尽管这有违他个人的原则。

  不过戴蒙同时公开承认要为今次严重亏损负责及道歉,「事件属严重错误,咎由自取,我们会对此负上责任」,又形容银行的策略「错误和过度复杂」,在「检讨、执行及监察」上都很差。他表示市若再有波动,随时要额外再蚀10亿美元。

  分析指出,摩通今次「炒」20亿美元,相信涉及一名绰号「伦敦鲸」或「佛地魔」的交易员伊克塞尔(Bruno Iksil)近月大手沽CDS指数有关。CDS(信贷违约掉期)简言之就是提防交易对手违约不还钱的保险合约,是一种对风险用的金融工具,CDS指数正是反映一篮子CDS产品价格上落的指数。

  上月初《华尔街日报》引述消息人士指出,伊克塞尔因看好金融市场未来表现,预测CDS价格下跌(意即违约风险下降),遂不断大手沽CDS指数,累积持仓超过1000亿美元。然而自上月起,欧债和美国经济前景阴霾再起,之前金融市场的乐观气氛骤变,CDS指数掉头回升,重挫伊克塞尔的持仓,不少对基金大鳄也看准了机会,趁市场气氛逆转,就CDS指数走势与摩通「对赌」,令摩通损失更惨重。

  不过伊克塞尔与1990年代拖垮霸菱银行的神奇小子利森(Nick Leeson),以及连累法兴银行狂蚀的「 魔童」克维尔( Jerome Kerviel)不同,《华尔街日报》引述消息人士指出,摩通管理层对有关交易一直知情,并监控伊克塞尔的交易,伊克塞尔并没有隐瞒持仓或损失。若消息属实,将进一步打击摩通及戴蒙的声誉,以及令外界更加支持全面禁止「坐盘交易」。
 
持仓1000亿,损失20亿,只有2%的损失啊,似乎正常。有明白的给说说吧:p
 
持仓1000亿,损失20亿,只有2%的损失啊,似乎正常。有明白的给说说吧:p



1000亿里估计有杠杆, 比如你有5万,借银行95万,共买100万股票,损失2万.你的损失是40%。
 
lazycatcat

Jamie Dimon is one of the best bank executives and has my admiration. If you want to know, go buy the book about him.

However, I never owned JPM. Relatively high valuation is one reason. The other reason is its enormous derivative exposure. The notional value is in the scale of tens of trillions of dollars. Balance sheet exposure, after netting, is in the scale of around $50 B.

It is simply impossible for anyone to manage such a risk. Now, the $2 B loss is no event to JPM. However it shows the inherent risks in JPM's portfolio. What happens if next CEO is less capable ?

This leads to Canadian banks, which are angels but are stained by huge derivative exposures. If you look at Royal Bank of Canada, you may think you are looking at JPM. This applies to all six Canadian banks.

The interest margin spread of CND bank is only at around 2% and reserve for loan loss is almost non existing. If the real-estate bubble bursts, which I am sure will occur, the hit to CND banks is probably won't be insignificant.

In comparison, if you look at USB, total notional amount of derivative is only $50 B. The actual exposure is very small... This is an example bank that stays with traditional banking and earns real profit ...



:D :D :D :D

答非所问,得分 C+ 。。。

1>. Jamie Dimon 是不是 one of the best bank executives,有没有 您的

admiration,都与5月11日 JPM 在 conference call上公布的损失无关。

2>. 过去6周,JPM 的 Credit Default Swap (CDS) 交易损失20亿美元。。。但 swap 的具体细节却没有公开。

因此,亏损不是"内幕",公开的时间也合乎规定,swap 的具体细节才是"内幕"。

3>. 这显示了 楼主他/她 问的问题不太严谨。所以,楼主问的问题,得分顶多只能是 C。:p :p :p

4>. 而小朋友吃蹭一堆大蒜,嘴臭讨人厌,得分也只能是 D- 。。。



最后,从国人的思维习惯看,由 1>。 到 4>。 的推论是,D- 的那来资格给分呢?!

所以,小朋友说的是屁话。。。楼下的请继续。 :D :D :D :D






 
1000亿美金的持仓,20亿美金的market to market loss,都是天文数字,评级机构都因为其持仓过于复杂,搞不清楚具体p/l,而不得不下调jpm的评级,现在市场的所有评论啊,内幕啊,都是八卦浮云。还有所谓的阴谋论,自己暴露仓位亏损,打压自己股票,自己再买,亲娘啊,他当葵花宝典,引刀自宫啊。

anyway,jpm及金融股短期碰不得,等jpm的下季报出台,一切都会水落石出。
 
2>. 过去6周,JPM 的 Credit Default Swap (CDS) 交易损失20亿美元。。。但 swap 的具体细节却没有公开。
因此,亏损不是"内幕",公开的时间也合乎规定,swap 的具体细节才是"内幕"。

不公开细节,号称是防止其他大鱼再落井下石,导致未来损失更多。
大鱼没有小鱼吃时,也会相互吃。
 
很 难说 的清楚, 10 亿 欧元 的债务 就 让 西腊 破 了 产. 20亿美金的market to market loss 可能 只是 冰山 的 一 角,, 真正 可怕 的 损失 在 水面以下, 还 没暴光 呢. 等 真像 暴露了, 你就发现损失的 不时20 亿, 而是 200 亿. 有可能是 致命的...
 
行 书

持仓1000亿,损失20亿,只有2%的损失啊,似乎正常。有明白的给说说吧:p


:D :D :D :D

来,让小朋友这个糊涂虫试着搞得 您老 更不明白 。。。

想像 您 走在一个冰封的、好几公里广的湖面上。突然,您发现脚下10步以里的冰开始

裂开,湖水渗出到冰面上。。。要说今天整个 derivative market 相关的价值,没10万

亿美元的话,打个3折,7万亿是肯定有的。这数,就好比那冰封了的整个湖面的面积,

而那20亿恐怕比10步的裂痕还小,但是,尽管裂开的面积,绝对占不到整个湖面的万分

之一,可请问 您 是跑还是不跑呢?!




 
2011年JPMORGAN的利润为19B. 亏损2B就等于利润减少10%。 假如市场预期利润增长10%,现在突然之间利润减少10%。那等于零增长。 股票相应的跌了10%。
 
[/color]

:D :D :D :D

来,让小朋友这个糊涂虫试着搞得 您老 更不明白 。。。

想像 您 走在一个冰封的、好几公里广的湖面上。突然,您发现脚下10步以里的冰开始

裂开,湖水渗出到冰面上。。。要说今天整个 derivative market 相关的价值,没10万

亿美元的话,打个3折,7万亿是肯定有的。这数,就好比那冰封了的整个湖面的面积,

而那20亿恐怕比10步的裂痕还小,但是,尽管裂开的面积,绝对占不到整个湖面的万分

之一,可请问 您 是跑还不跑呢?!





得先看看方向再跑;):D:D
 
很 难说 的清楚, 10 亿 欧元 的债务 就 让 西腊 破 了 产. 20亿美金的market to market loss 可能 只是 冰山 的 一 角,, 真正 可怕 的 损失 在 水面以下, 还 没暴光 呢. 等 真像 暴露了, 你就发现损失的 不时20 亿, 而是 200 亿. 有可能是 致命的...

JPM can take $20 B loss in a year. Not an issue and won't kill the bank....

The biggest risk to derivative is not market risk. If JPM bets wrongly on something, the loss is manageable. The biggest risk is counter-party default ! For now, such risk probably is OK since all those that should go have gone.

It is much safer to invest in traditional banks...
 
The key is that JPM 2B lose is from the "excess deposits", which has direct impact to their liquidity. JPM has trillions of asset, but most of which are long term investment. A bank's biggest risk is lack of liquidity. Lehman Brothers went under was not because they didn't have equity, but they ran out of liquidity. That's how the market fared about.
 
就是那些数字在搬来倒去的,然后大众亏了,银行高管赚了。
 
Not sure if you are serious or not. If a liquidity of $2B is an issue to JPM, it should fly to Chapter 11 yesterday.



JPM has over $100 B liquidity asset and it is not a problem ! It doesn't have trillions of asset. Its total asset is around $1.2 to $1.5 T....



Lehman ran out of liquidity ? Its leverage ratio is 30 to 1. Where will you get liquidity with that type of leverage ?

As of Mar 31, 2012, JPM has 2.3T asset in its balance sheet. Although they had 2.1T debt (that's 1:10 leverage). I didn't find out how many cash/cash equivalents they have, but it will be dumb to hold more than 20B cash/cashable asset (because those will not make any money for them). That said, they may have lose 1/10 of their liquidity. If their major customers start to withdraw their money from JPM, JPM will have immediate liquidity problem. Sure they can sell their short term and long term investment, but not without a lose. Which will trigger another round of withdraw, giving them further liquidity presure. I didn't say that was what was happening, I said that was what the market fared about...
 
摩根大通和 摩根小通是两家不同的金融机构,前者的主要业务是银行事务,后者主要是做投资。
 
后退
顶部