马航失踪客机搜救进展

有人在追查:

IT expert Paul Thompson has responded to the continuing speculation that mobile phone signals on board the missing plane could have been picked up.

Thompson, who works on IT policy for the Lib Dems but is commenting in a personal capacity, says the chances of any data getting through would be extremely slim.

In response questions raised by reader Michael Rhodes, he writes:

  1. The communication devices would have to connect to a cell tower. Although it’s possible for mobile signals to connect at medium to high altitudes (up to 15,000 ft I believe) this would be extremely patchy and tests have shown that anyone trying to connect above 2000 feet would have a very very difficult time doing so. Also, when someone is making a call while travelling they may go past several cell phone towers with each tower handing the caller onto the next, however at airliner speeds of 400mph it may be far too fast for this process to happen.
  2. There would have to be a GSM tower for them to connect to. We know that much of the aircraft’s path was over water where no signal would have been possible (a tower has a range of about 35km), however even when it hit land the coverage may have been patchy. Say the aircraft went due north from its last position to Burma where GSM coverage is sporadic at best (rollout only started in 2008), it would have been very lucky to catch a signal from a tower regardless of height or speed.
  3. We would have to know IMEI numbers for all the passengers mobile devices - this would need to be collected from each of their respective countries, as this would enable us to uniquely identify the device as being from one of the passengers - I doubt this has been done yet.
  4. Say a mobile did manage to connect to a GSM tower for a split second, enough for the tower to register their IMEI number, that data would have to be collected and made available to us. We are talking about several developing countries with a very wide range of mobile operators, all with varying policies and laws (if any) governing the collection of mobile data. Would that data have been saved and not overwritten after 7 days? If so, it is saved in a central database? Is that database searchable? A mobile company would only pay to build this capability if it had to.
  5. Has anyone asked each of the mobile operators for all of the countries MH370 could have flown over to see if any of the passengers IMEI data was recorded? The search so far has been a bit of a farce, it wouldn’t surprise me if someone hadn’t yet started this mammoth task as it only became clear in the past few days that MH370 was hijacked somehow.
So in short, we really shouldn’t speculate on the lack of mobile data - but investigating it may be a worthwhile avenue to pursue.

还是,怎么说怎么是,谁知道Paul是谁。 cfc 有通信专家吗,能解释吗?
 
嗯,不能再跟这楼了,就是一流言蜚语专栏。
 
http://view.inews.qq.com/a/NEW20140308004685AS

【最新消息:联合国机构称未监测到客机发生爆炸】联合国全面禁止核试验条约组织方面17日通过纽约联合国总部渠道透露,截至目前,该机构未监测到失联的马航客机曾发生爆炸。“目前没有监测到马航客机无论是在陆地、还是在水面发生爆炸的情况,同时也没有发现飞机坠毁的迹象。”
 
专家:失联航班如何躲雷达?
新京报03-18 08:1760评论



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视频:马方例行发布会 展现更多疑问,时长约100秒

岳刚(反恐专家、军事评论员)


昨天下午5点30分,马来西亚方面召开记者招待会,在会上,马来西亚官方确认,因马来西亚军方消息敏感,仍有信息未向公众发布。

一方面,“军方消息敏感”,这是事实,另一方面,这也是在3月8日飞机失联后各方消息无法综合在一起的一个原因,比如民用雷达与军用雷达之间的信息沟通问题。

尽管如此,综合目前各方公布的信息,失联的马航很可能是被劫持的。首先,在14分钟内先后关闭了两个对外应答装置,表明飞机受到专业人员的控制;其次,航班在离开失联点改变航线飞行,并继续飞行至少6小时50分钟,表明飞机的整个飞行过程都是被控制的。

但是,问题在于,失联的飞机是如何穿越各国雷达的,因为除了民用航空的雷达,还有军方的雷达装置,想要躲避雷达监测是很难的事情。

其实,细加分析就会发现,劫机人员是经过一番精心考量的。我的分析是,失联航班在马来西亚与越南航空管制区交接后,立即关闭外联并掉头飞行,表明劫机为精心策划,选定了关键节点失联,造成两方航空管制的失控。

具体来说,就是当失联航班离开马来西亚,进入越南空管区并与越南方面联系上以后,马航的民用雷达就结束了任务,不再追踪监控航班。而失联航班则迅速不再联系越南方面,改变航向,又飞出了越南空管区。一般来说,这种情况出乎意料,越南方面也不会想到主动与马来西亚方面沟通,询问到底出了什么问题,最可能的情形就是等一段时间再继续捕捉信号。

失联航班折返后,民用雷达就监测不到了,不过军用雷达可以看见。但是当时事情还没发生,军方也不能确定这是什么飞机。失联航班则时而采取低飞,就是比正常巡航高度1万零五百英尺低(9千英尺高度)飞行,可以避免因航线生疏与正常航线客机撞击的可能。同时,这种规避动作,会让人以为会不会是教练机之类,而不会怀疑是民航的飞机,也就不会过分地去注意。

然后,失联航班向西飞行,沿着泰国的方向,从印度半岛与安达曼群岛间穿过,中间是一片宽阔的海域,距离陆地很远,陆地雷达无法监测,这样就可以躲过监测。

至于目的地可能在哪?我认为很可能是也门或索马里,从失联掉头点距两地约5千公里,客机巡航速度是867公里每小时,掉头后仍飞行了6小时50分,理论上可飞行5600公里,载油基本满足抵达目的地。

不过,现在失去联系,有可能是在飞行中绕飞、航线生疏,加之气象、低飞等因素,致使燃油提前消耗殆尽,在距离也门或索马里不远处,迫降失败坠入印度洋底,机体基本完好,暂时无浮物漂上海面。当然,也可能是顺利到达目的地,但我认为这种可能性不是很大,试想如果劫机成功,不可能到现在还不向外界公布,或者提出谈判。


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【搜寻进展:中方已开始在中国领土范围内搜索】中国驻马大使黄惠康称,中方已经开始在北部走廊中国领土范围内的搜索工作。此前调查人员判断客机失联后若继续飞行有两条“空中走廊”,分别为自泰国北部至哈萨克斯坦和土库曼斯坦边境的北部走廊,和经印度尼西亚至南印度洋的南部走廊。
 
Summary
Here’s a summary of the latest developments:

 
最后编辑:
China says it has started searching its territory and deployed 21 satellites to help with the search. BBC
 
Summary

Chinese relatives of missing MH370 passengers threatened a hunger strike to protest what they say are willful delays and misinformation from the Malaysian side.

• Japanese, American, and South Korean search aircraft remained parked in Kuala Lumpur because Indonesia had not issued permission for the planes to overfly Indonesia’s airspace.

The Thai military released military radar data bolstering the theory that the plane flew west over the Malacca Strait, saying it had not provided the information earlier because it was not specifically asked.

The westerly turn that diverted the plane off its flight path was programmed into the aircraft’s computer navigation system, probably by someone in the cockpit, US officials told the the New York Times.

• Checks on Chinese passengers aboard MH370 found no indication of malfeasance, the Chinese ambassador in Kuala Lumpur said. China has begun searching its own territory for the plane, state broadcaster CCTV reported.

It may take weeks to search a 600,000 square kilometre area off the south-western coast of Australia for signs of the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, the maritime authority said.
 
美舰退出马航搜寻行动 留下2架飞机搜寻

美帝海军跟中国海军没差别
@mimi_ge

3月18日上午,美国海军第七舰队发言人威廉。马克斯称,基德号导弹驱逐舰(USS KIDD)已经完成在安达曼海的搜索任务,今天退出围绕失联MH370航班展开的多国搜救行动,同时,经与马来西亚协商,美军一架P-8A波塞冬飞机将调到西澳大利亚继续进行搜索。

  基德号是在3月10日下午加入搜救行动的,最初是在泰国湾西南部用其搭载的两架海鹰直升机进行搜索,随着马来西亚宣布扩大搜救区域,基德号转移到安达曼海南部。

  到目前为止,马克斯称,基德号及其两架海鹰直升机已经搜索了大约15000平方英里海面,没有发现任何与一架飞机有关的残骸或碎片。

  美军较早加入搜救的是3月9日抵达的平克尼号(USS PINCKNEY)导弹驱逐舰,与基德号同级,同样配备两架海鹰直升机。平克尼号已于3月14日率先退出搜救,前往新加坡进行例行航程检修。平克尼号同样没有任何发现。

  随着两艘舰艇相继离去,美军留下两架固定翼飞机继续参加搜救,一架是P-3C猎户座,一架是P-8A波塞冬,都是从日本冲绳的美军嘉手纳空军基地起飞的,都属于海上巡逻机。

  第七舰队发言人马克斯称,留下这两架飞机是因为它们“更符合此次搜救行动的要求”。目前,猎户座以吉隆坡为基地,波塞冬则被调往澳大利亚西部。

  3月8日上午,马来西亚航空公司宣布,该公司MH370航班在从吉隆坡飞往北京途中失去联系,机上载有227名乘客和12名机组人员。
 
劫机全新模式:
太专业了,悄摸地劫持了飞机,不跟任何人提条件,
整的想跟他们谈条件的人满世界找,那叫一个费劲。为劫持而劫持,
劫了就达到目的了,谈毛的条件,太俗!没条件就是条件,追求的是广告效益,
全球关注!哇!全新的互联网思维,要的就是点击率,关注度!
最后实现第三方支付!
 
劫机全新模式:
太专业了,悄摸地劫持了飞机,不跟任何人提条件,
整的想跟他们谈条件的人满世界找,那叫一个费劲。为劫持而劫持,
劫了就达到目的了,谈毛的条件,太俗!没条件就是条件,追求的是广告效益,
全球关注!哇!全新的互联网思维,要的就是点击率,关注度!
最后实现第三方支付!
太牛了
 
劫机全新模式:
太专业了,悄摸地劫持了飞机,不跟任何人提条件,
整的想跟他们谈条件的人满世界找,那叫一个费劲。为劫持而劫持,
劫了就达到目的了,谈毛的条件,太俗!没条件就是条件,追求的是广告效益,
全球关注!哇!全新的互联网思维,要的就是点击率,关注度!
最后实现第三方支付!

老毛说“世界上没有无缘无故的爱,也没有无缘无故的恨”。对你这种“为劫持而劫持”的论调,替老毛鄙视你一下。

“无招胜有招”的说辞更是荒谬,没法证实也没法证伪,也没法自证清白,有违你们科邪教义,显得你很弱智。:monster:

“全球关注!哇!全新的互联网思维,要的就是点击率,关注度!” --这不就是说你们教主么?
“最后实现第三方支付!” --除了美国生物技术公司,肘子又有新金主了?:monster::monster:
 
Summary
Here’s a summary of where things stand:

• The 12th day of searching for Malaysia Airlines flight 370 began in Australia, which deployed planes and ships in the southern Indian Ocean, where it reported moderate conditions. The search also continued to the north, in China, India and central Asia.

• No tangible clues to the fate of the plane emerged. The vast search area covered an estimated 2.24m square nautical miles.

• In China, family members of missing passengers angrily accused Malaysia of incompetence and a lack of transparency in the search effort. Some relatives threatened to begin a hunger strike in protest.

• Some search aircraft were grounded in Kuala Lumpur after Indonesia failed to grant overflight permission. The Thai military made a tardy handover of radar data said to track MH370.

• Malaysian officials said international “partners have taken an increasing role in organising and carrying out operations.” The White House said US officials in Kuala Lumpur were working “in close cooperation with the Malaysian government.”

The westerly turn that diverted the plane off its flight path was programmed into the aircraft’s computer navigation system, probably by someone in the cockpit, US officials told the the New York Times.

• Background checks on Chinese passengers aboard MH370 found no suspicious ties, the Chinese ambassador in Kuala Lumpur said.

Updated at 9.24pm GMT
 
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