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The story of the 2015 campaign in Ottawa boils down to the fight for suburban seats in what could be seen as the capital’s version of the battle for the 905 area around Toronto. In the ring around the core of city, running from Kanata to Orléans, retirements of brand-name politicians and riding redistributions have potentially changed the plot since the 2011 vote.
There’s a dog fight in the new Nepean riding — comprised of Barrhaven, Bells Corners and several neighbourhoods wedged between West Hunt Club Drive and train tracks to the north — between Liberal Chandra Arya and Conservative Andy Wang. Recent polls had the pair in a statistical tie.
The Conservatives under Gordon O’Connor, who retired this year, previously held much of area that is now Kanata-Carleton, another product of redistribution. Walter Pamic is carrying the Conservative torch this time out, but he’s in a tight skirmish with Liberal Karen McCrimmon, who unsuccessfully sought the Liberal leadership in 2013 and placed second to O’Connor in 2011 (when the riding was called Carleton-Mississippi Mills).
STORY CONTINUES AFTER LIVE UPDATES
And across town in Orléans, former Canadian Forces lieutenant-general Andrew Leslie, who’s been serving as a senior adviser to Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, is poised to wrestle the east-end riding from the nine-year grip of Conservative incumbent Royal Galipeau.
Ottawa West-Nepean belongs with these suburban races. Even though it’s located inside the Greenbelt, it’s still outside of the city’s core and is another riding where change may be imminent. Liberal Anita Vandenbeld appears ready to take what was denied her the last time around, when she came second to John Baird in 2011. The former foreign affairs minister’s retirement earlier this year made this another open — and sought after — seat. Ottawa police constable Abdul Abdi is the Conservative candidate, although polls have had him running a distant second to Vandenbeld in this historically red seat.
In all four contests, the New Democrats are coming from so far behind that they’d need a very big national surge to contend — and that doesn’t look likely.
In fact, despite some impressive local candidates, the NDP under Tom Mulcair may have little room for real seat growth in the Ottawa-Gatineau region and may well finish the night holding onto three of the seats the party held when the campaign began 79 days ago.
Paul Dewar appears poised for re-election in Ottawa Centre, despite a tireless and committed effort from his Liberal opponent, Catherine McKenna. Gatineau MP Françoise Boivin will also be tough to beat — she won more than 62 per cent of the vote in 2011. And Nycole Turmel, facing a strong challenge from Liberal Greg Fergus, may also prevail, though it could be a photo finish. It may seem like ancient history now, but it was Turmel who former NDP leader Jack Layton chose to be interim party leader after his death in 2011.
In Pontiac, a different outcome could unfold, as polls earlier this month showed NDP incumbent Mathieu Ravignat with the narrowest of leads over Liberal Will Amos.
East of Ottawa, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell — which includes rural Cumberland, Rockland and Hawkesbury — could also see change as projections put Liberal Francis Drouin ahead of Conservative incumbent Pierre Lemieux.
There are, however, other noteworthy chapters to this campaign story.
Respect for Ottawa as a city and as the nation’s capital have loomed large, especially in Ottawa Centre, where leading candidates Dewar and McKenna have both campaigned the government’s decision to locate the controversial Memorial to the Victims of Communism on a prestigious Wellington Street site long reserved for a new federal court building.
City officials are surely pleased that whomever forms the next government has committed to chipping in $1 billion for the second phase of light rail transit, and that the Liberals and NDP have also pledged to quickly come up with a plan to celebrate Canada’s sesquicentennial in 2017 — one of Mayor Jim Watson’s key wish-list items for the capital.
But the mayor may have been a bit dismayed by the absence of a Conservative candidate at the all-party debate his office organized at city hall, as well as at a briefing session on local issues his staff arranged with candidates from all four major federal parties. The Conservatives blew off the first session with the mayor and only two candidates showed up to the rescheduled meeting.
For public servants, whom all three leading national parties have attempted to woo, this election comes down to a question of respect. Both Trudeau and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wrote open letters to the public service during the campaign to make their pitch. Trudeau’s letter used the words “respect,” “trust” and “trusting.” Harper’s did not, although he did call Canada’s public service “world class.”
As in other places across the country, the niqab debate became a hot-button issue here, especially after Conservative Leader Stephen Harper mused about banning public servants from wearing the religious garment (though many critics, including unions, were quick to point out no one currently working in the public service actually wears a niqab).
The Conservative government also sought a stay for a Federal Court of Appeal decision that granted Zunera Ishaq, a Muslim woman, the right to wear a niqab while swearing the oath of citizenship (Ishaq was officially granted citizenship last week).
The remaining four ridings in the region are not expected to change hands Monday night.
The walls of David McGuinty’s Ottawa South fortress seem unlikely to crack anytime soon. Same goes for Conservative Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton, a redistributed riding that wraps around the south part of Ottawa from Stittsville to Greely.
Ottawa-Vanier, a Liberal-held riding since 1935, will likely remain Mauril Bélanger’s, though NDP challenger Emilie Taman has the best shot of any challenger in recent years to unseat the incumbent.
To the west, Conservative Cheryl Gallant in the Ottawa Valley riding of Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke is expected to be re-elected handily.
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mpearson@ottawacitizen.com
twitter.com/mpearson78
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There’s a dog fight in the new Nepean riding — comprised of Barrhaven, Bells Corners and several neighbourhoods wedged between West Hunt Club Drive and train tracks to the north — between Liberal Chandra Arya and Conservative Andy Wang. Recent polls had the pair in a statistical tie.
The Conservatives under Gordon O’Connor, who retired this year, previously held much of area that is now Kanata-Carleton, another product of redistribution. Walter Pamic is carrying the Conservative torch this time out, but he’s in a tight skirmish with Liberal Karen McCrimmon, who unsuccessfully sought the Liberal leadership in 2013 and placed second to O’Connor in 2011 (when the riding was called Carleton-Mississippi Mills).
STORY CONTINUES AFTER LIVE UPDATES
And across town in Orléans, former Canadian Forces lieutenant-general Andrew Leslie, who’s been serving as a senior adviser to Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, is poised to wrestle the east-end riding from the nine-year grip of Conservative incumbent Royal Galipeau.
Ottawa West-Nepean belongs with these suburban races. Even though it’s located inside the Greenbelt, it’s still outside of the city’s core and is another riding where change may be imminent. Liberal Anita Vandenbeld appears ready to take what was denied her the last time around, when she came second to John Baird in 2011. The former foreign affairs minister’s retirement earlier this year made this another open — and sought after — seat. Ottawa police constable Abdul Abdi is the Conservative candidate, although polls have had him running a distant second to Vandenbeld in this historically red seat.
In all four contests, the New Democrats are coming from so far behind that they’d need a very big national surge to contend — and that doesn’t look likely.
In fact, despite some impressive local candidates, the NDP under Tom Mulcair may have little room for real seat growth in the Ottawa-Gatineau region and may well finish the night holding onto three of the seats the party held when the campaign began 79 days ago.
Paul Dewar appears poised for re-election in Ottawa Centre, despite a tireless and committed effort from his Liberal opponent, Catherine McKenna. Gatineau MP Françoise Boivin will also be tough to beat — she won more than 62 per cent of the vote in 2011. And Nycole Turmel, facing a strong challenge from Liberal Greg Fergus, may also prevail, though it could be a photo finish. It may seem like ancient history now, but it was Turmel who former NDP leader Jack Layton chose to be interim party leader after his death in 2011.
In Pontiac, a different outcome could unfold, as polls earlier this month showed NDP incumbent Mathieu Ravignat with the narrowest of leads over Liberal Will Amos.
East of Ottawa, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell — which includes rural Cumberland, Rockland and Hawkesbury — could also see change as projections put Liberal Francis Drouin ahead of Conservative incumbent Pierre Lemieux.
There are, however, other noteworthy chapters to this campaign story.
Respect for Ottawa as a city and as the nation’s capital have loomed large, especially in Ottawa Centre, where leading candidates Dewar and McKenna have both campaigned the government’s decision to locate the controversial Memorial to the Victims of Communism on a prestigious Wellington Street site long reserved for a new federal court building.
City officials are surely pleased that whomever forms the next government has committed to chipping in $1 billion for the second phase of light rail transit, and that the Liberals and NDP have also pledged to quickly come up with a plan to celebrate Canada’s sesquicentennial in 2017 — one of Mayor Jim Watson’s key wish-list items for the capital.
But the mayor may have been a bit dismayed by the absence of a Conservative candidate at the all-party debate his office organized at city hall, as well as at a briefing session on local issues his staff arranged with candidates from all four major federal parties. The Conservatives blew off the first session with the mayor and only two candidates showed up to the rescheduled meeting.
For public servants, whom all three leading national parties have attempted to woo, this election comes down to a question of respect. Both Trudeau and Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wrote open letters to the public service during the campaign to make their pitch. Trudeau’s letter used the words “respect,” “trust” and “trusting.” Harper’s did not, although he did call Canada’s public service “world class.”
As in other places across the country, the niqab debate became a hot-button issue here, especially after Conservative Leader Stephen Harper mused about banning public servants from wearing the religious garment (though many critics, including unions, were quick to point out no one currently working in the public service actually wears a niqab).
The Conservative government also sought a stay for a Federal Court of Appeal decision that granted Zunera Ishaq, a Muslim woman, the right to wear a niqab while swearing the oath of citizenship (Ishaq was officially granted citizenship last week).
The remaining four ridings in the region are not expected to change hands Monday night.
The walls of David McGuinty’s Ottawa South fortress seem unlikely to crack anytime soon. Same goes for Conservative Pierre Poilievre’s Carleton, a redistributed riding that wraps around the south part of Ottawa from Stittsville to Greely.
Ottawa-Vanier, a Liberal-held riding since 1935, will likely remain Mauril Bélanger’s, though NDP challenger Emilie Taman has the best shot of any challenger in recent years to unseat the incumbent.
To the west, Conservative Cheryl Gallant in the Ottawa Valley riding of Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke is expected to be re-elected handily.
Related
mpearson@ottawacitizen.com
twitter.com/mpearson78
查看原文...
