本帖由 明的凡 于 2016-04-05 发布。版面名称：渥太华华人论坛
The Ontario election race might be a whole lot closer than you think.
An investigation released Monday into a polling company's admitted "failure" in Calgary's recent mayoral election is prompting the firm to cast doubt on the method it used.
That same method is being used in the Ontario polls that show the biggest leads for Patrick Brown's Progressive Conservatives over Premier Kathleen Wynne's Liberals.
The polling firm Mainstreet Research says the method it used in Calgary, known as interactive voice response (IVR), underestimated support for Mayor Naheed Nenshi by a wide margin, by failing to survey enough younger voters. These polls, sometimes described as robocall polling, ask voters to indicate their answers by pressing numbers on their phone keypad.
"We missed a lot of these young voters because they are harder to reach," said Mainstreet president Quitto Maggi in a statement following the release of the investigation. The investigation also revealed that younger voters who were reached by the pollsters were significantly less likely than others to respond to the questions. It means the firm's poll results in Calgary likely overestimated older, more conservative voters.
"While IVR is still very much part of the present of polling, it may not be part of its future, said Joseph Angolano, vice president of analytics for Mainstreet Research in his investigation report. "We might be starting to witness the beginning of the end for telephone polling."
All this could have implications for how you view the Ontario election race. Polls that are using different methods are showing different results, CBC polling analyst Eric Grenier revealed last week. .
The polls showing the closest race in Ontario are conducted online. They draw from a large pool of tens of thousands of voters, allowing the pollsters to pick a sample that they say is representative of the population, although it is not randomly selected.
Polls conducted by Campaign Research Inc. using this method suggest Wynne and the Liberals have narrowed the gap with the Progressive Conservatives over the past six months. The firm's most recent poll released on Friday put the Liberals and the PCs in a statistical dead heat.
The polls that show the Liberals trailing by the widest margin have been conducted using IVR, by Mainstreet and Forum Research.
In every Forum Research poll for the past year, the PCs have led the Liberals by at at least 13 points. Forum's most recent poll released earlier this month puts the Liberals in third, 16 percentage points behind the PCs. Mainstreet's last Ontario poll was conducted in May and gave the PCs a 14 point lead over the Liberals.
The stark differences in the poll results raise questions: Are people who are unhappy with Kathleen Wynne somehow more likely to respond to robocall polls? Or are the online panels under-representing conservative voters?
Problem getting young people to answer poll
Campaign Research no longer uses IVR in its political polling because its shortcomings have become too significant, said the firm's president Richard Ciano..
"The problem isn't necessarily finding young people to call," Ciano said Monday in an interview with CBC News. "The problem is actually getting them to complete the survey."
The lack of response from younger voters to IVR has intensified in just the past two years, said Ciano.
"They screen the calls. If they don't recognize [the number] they don't pick up. And even if they do pick up, when they understand that it's a phone survey, they're just not interested."
PC Leader Patrick Brown addresses the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party convention, in Toronto on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2017. (Chris Young/The Canadian Press)
The president of Forum Research, Lorne Bozinoff, points to his firm's accurate predictions of the results of the B.C. and Nova Scotia provincial elections this year, as well as the Calgary mayoral race, as proof that IVR works.
"The most important thing in looking at this is the track record," said Bozinoff in an interview with CBC News on Monday.
Bozinoff rejects any notion that Forum's polls are missing younger voters. His IVR method uses "random digit dialling" to call both cellphones and landlines.
"Every single person in the province has an equal probability of us calling them," said Bozinoff. "As long as you have a cellphone or a landline, you have a chance of being surveyed by the Forum poll."
He also said the response rate to his firm's political polls is high.
"People are really anxious to give their comments," said Bozinoff. "They love doing ... short IVR political surveys."
Bozinoff dismisses polls of online panels as "not scientific," unable to indicate a true margin of error since the sample is not random.
"You can't rely on them," he said. "These are people who want to do surveys all day long, they're not like you and me."
With the 2018 provincial election months away, a new exclusive Ipsos poll for Global News finds a majority of Ontarians believe it is time for a change in Queen’s Park.
At the moment, the poll suggests the incumbent Liberals appear to be in trouble with the Progressive Conservative Party holding the lead. But it is the New Democratic Party who holds the momentum.
If an election were to be held tomorrow, the PCs under Patrick Brown would win with 36 per cent of the decided voters, but those numbers are down three points since Ipsos’ last findings in September. The NDP under Andrea Horwath, however, are up six points, sitting at 28 per cent. That finding ties them with Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals, who have dropped four percentage points.
But overall, 81 per cent of residents polled said they believe it is time for another party to take over.
“People feeling like they’re not sure what’s coming next,” Wynne told Global News in a recent year-end interview. “That uncertainty – that’s the environment we are operating in. So whether the ballot question will be about jobs or whether it’ll be a cost of living, it will be in that area because it’s that uncertainty.”
“If you’re asking me if we need a political change, well, the people of Ontario will decide that.”
While the vast majority of Ontario residents believe change should happen, a number of variables, including key ridings, candidate popularity and a historically high number of people (one in ten) saying they would vote for a party other than the big three, including the provincial Green Party, that could shift voters one way or the other. Seventeen per cent of voters surveyed remain undecided.
The 905 ridings around the GTA appear to be the tightest race. With the Liberals at 34 per cent and the PCs at 32, they are statistically tied factoring in the margin of error. The NDP sit in third with 24 per cent.
The popularity of Horwath is the “wildcard,” according to Ipsos Global Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker. He emphasized that Wynne isn’t very popular and Brown is still relatively unknown. Forty-one per cent of voters believe that Horwath would make the best premier, 37 per cent believe in Brown and Wynne sits well behind at 22 per cent.
What these numbers say is that there is “ample opportunity for these results to shift as the election draws nearer and Ontarians become more familiar with the candidates, leaders and platforms.”
Bricker said the key will be in how the candidates perform during the campaign.
“While Wynne seems to be in a difficult spot, campaigns in Ontario have proven to be highly volatile,” he said. “Wynne is a very tough, proven campaigner.
“Nobody should count her out.”
While uncertainty seems to be the feeling going into the election, Wynne told Global News that she would stay in office if the people were to vote for a minority government.
“If I’m elected back into office, I will do my very best to deliver on our plan, whatever the configuration of the legislature because I believe in what we’re doing and so I’ll work with whoever is in the legislature to make that plan happen.”
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between December 8 and 14, 2017, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 829 Ontarians aged 18+ from Ipsos’ online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.