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Get ready for a 70-cent dollar: analyst
Canadian exporters should be prepared to raise prices, open new markets
Kristin Goff
The Ottawa Citizen
Wednesday, May 08, 2002
Canadian exporters need to prepare for a big jump in the value of the Canadian dollar, which has acted as a cushion during the economic downturn, says a leading export economist.
Stephen Poloz, chief economist for Export Development Canada, said he expects the Canadian dollar will increase by 10 per cent to around 70 cents U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months as the global economy recovers.
That recovery means the Canadian dollar will return to more normal levels, which Mr. Poloz says is somewhere in the range of 70 to 75 U.S. cents.
At a business seminar in Ottawa yesterday, Mr. Poloz was asked when exporters should start to prepare for a higher Canadian dollar.
"That day is here now," Mr. Poloz said. "I think they should be assuming 70 (U.S.) cents, and doing what they have to do to deal with costs at that level."
That may mean preparing to raise prices on goods and services sold to American customers as well as expanding into other markets where the exchange rate isn't such a factor, he said.
The Canadian dollar, which is currently trading around 63 cents, has acted as something of a "shock absorber" for Canada's economy during the economic slowdown.
The lower dollar makes Canadian goods and services relatively cheaper for U.S. buyers. The dollar's decline since the mid-1990s has added anywhere from a third to a half percentage point to Canada's economic output by boosting U.S. exports, Mr. Poloz said.
While that competitive edge will be diminished if the dollar rebounds, Mr. Poloz said the news isn't all bad for exporters.
In his view, the Canadian dollar will only increase if economies around the world begin strong recoveries. That means buyers in the U.S. and elsewhere will be looking for more goods and services and they will be more willing to pay a higher price to get them.
What's more, many of Canada's competitors will be in the same boat since the global recovery will boost the value of European, Asian and other currencies, against the U.S. dollar as well.
Export Development Canada is predicting Canada's economy will grow by 2.5 per cent this year with a two-per-cent increase in exports. Next year, it forecasts growth of four per cent and a strong nine-per-cent increase in exports.
Canadian exporters should be prepared to raise prices, open new markets
Kristin Goff
The Ottawa Citizen
Wednesday, May 08, 2002
Canadian exporters need to prepare for a big jump in the value of the Canadian dollar, which has acted as a cushion during the economic downturn, says a leading export economist.
Stephen Poloz, chief economist for Export Development Canada, said he expects the Canadian dollar will increase by 10 per cent to around 70 cents U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months as the global economy recovers.
That recovery means the Canadian dollar will return to more normal levels, which Mr. Poloz says is somewhere in the range of 70 to 75 U.S. cents.
At a business seminar in Ottawa yesterday, Mr. Poloz was asked when exporters should start to prepare for a higher Canadian dollar.
"That day is here now," Mr. Poloz said. "I think they should be assuming 70 (U.S.) cents, and doing what they have to do to deal with costs at that level."
That may mean preparing to raise prices on goods and services sold to American customers as well as expanding into other markets where the exchange rate isn't such a factor, he said.
The Canadian dollar, which is currently trading around 63 cents, has acted as something of a "shock absorber" for Canada's economy during the economic slowdown.
The lower dollar makes Canadian goods and services relatively cheaper for U.S. buyers. The dollar's decline since the mid-1990s has added anywhere from a third to a half percentage point to Canada's economic output by boosting U.S. exports, Mr. Poloz said.
While that competitive edge will be diminished if the dollar rebounds, Mr. Poloz said the news isn't all bad for exporters.
In his view, the Canadian dollar will only increase if economies around the world begin strong recoveries. That means buyers in the U.S. and elsewhere will be looking for more goods and services and they will be more willing to pay a higher price to get them.
What's more, many of Canada's competitors will be in the same boat since the global recovery will boost the value of European, Asian and other currencies, against the U.S. dollar as well.
Export Development Canada is predicting Canada's economy will grow by 2.5 per cent this year with a two-per-cent increase in exports. Next year, it forecasts growth of four per cent and a strong nine-per-cent increase in exports.
