中美贸易战：13轮磋商无果 改成“阶段性”方式继续磋；特朗普和刘鹤于1月15日在白宫签署第一阶段经贸协议 (附中英文版本)
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搓
cathlethorpe
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flag should be on the other side?
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国内是右派操盘，死到临头都不察觉。
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Top officials from the United States and China began two days of face-to-face trade talks on Wednesday, trying to break an impasse that has left the world’s two largest economies in a damaging trade war.
Despite the high stakes of the discussions, there was little optimism that a major breakthrough was imminent.
Trump administration officials have signaled that the negotiations are narrowing around a smaller initial deal that would stave off additional tariffs, but not roll back the duties on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports that Mr. Trump has already imposed. In exchange, China would follow through with promised purchases of American goods and services and some modest economic changes.
A person familiar with the negotiations said that there were signs of progress on the first day of talks but that it did not appear that major breakthroughs were imminent on many of the big concessions that the United States was seeking.
The negotiations, which are taking place in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, are being led by Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, and Liu He, China’s vice premier. President Trump plans to meet with Mr. Liu at the conclusion of the talks on Thursday. The meeting will offer an indication on the status of the negotiations, and analysts will be studying the president’s body language if the encounter takes place.
The delegation from China was welcomed to Washington by angry Chinese protesters who rushed its motorcade. After arriving at the White House complex, the two sides exchanged pleasantries and joked about the seating arrangements.
The countries are facing a deadline of March 2 to reach a trade agreement — or the United States has threatened to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports. But there is little chance that every issue will be resolved by that date, and Trump administration officials describe the negotiations as exponentially more complicated than anything the White House has tackled to date.
The talks come just days after the Justice Department unveiled sweeping charges against Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou. Huawei and Ms. Meng are accused of stealing trade secrets, obstructing a criminal investigation and evading United States sanctions on Iran.
The timing has raised questions about whether the Trump administration unveiled the charges to ratchet up pressure on China before the talks. Ms. Meng was arrested in Canada last month, on the same night that Mr. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China dined together at the Group of 20 summit meeting in Buenos Aires where they agreed to a trade truce.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who met with Mr. Liu on Wednesday, said a day earlier that the Huawei case was being handled on a separate track from the trade talks. But given China’s heated reaction to the arrest and indictment, it is hard to imagine that Chinese officials will not raise the issue.
“I think it’s very difficult to keep them separate,” said Weijian Shan, a private equity investor based in Hong Kong and the author of “Out of the Gobi,” a memoir that depicts China’s modern history. “To the extent that China feels that this is a major issue with America, they will bring it up.”
For now, both sides appear eager to find areas of agreement, including on purchases of more American goods. China has demonstrated a willingness to address Mr. Trump’s concerns about the United States’ bilateral trade deficit with big purchases of goods and services, like chicken, soybeans and tractors. That is the easy part. More difficult is persuading China to overhaul its economic policies.
The Trump administration has been pushing China to scale back subsidies of state-owned enterprises, sharply open its markets to foreign investment and end its longstanding practice of forcing American companies to hand over trade secrets as a condition of doing business there. China has made a series of moves in the last month that suggest it is willing to accept some of those changes, but there is division in the Trump administration over whether they are merely symbolic — and empty — gestures.
“None of China’s domestic reforms since December have really addressed the structural issues in the relationship,” said Nick Marro, an Asia and China analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “Progress on increasing U.S. imports or tackling questions over China’s currency don’t really address what the U.S.T.R is really looking at, which are fundamental market access issues facing U.S. companies.”
One of the biggest questions hanging over the trade talks is whether the United States can truly enforce any deal agreed to by Beijing.
Mr. Trump has wielded tariffs as a stick to get Beijing to the bargaining table. But if the tariffs are lifted as part of a trade deal, there is no guarantee that China will live up to any commitments. American officials, who say China has broken promises in the past, have discussed mechanisms such as “snapback” tariffs that would be reimposed if China does not follow through. Another option is “carousel” tariffs that would hit different portions of Chinese products to prevent its economy from becoming immune to the pain of the duties.
China skeptics in the Trump administration fear that the Chinese will say anything to delay the increase in tariff rates on March 2 and to get Mr. Trump to roll back the tariffs that are already in place. At that point they expect China to wait out the rest of Mr. Trump’s term and hope for a more dovish successor.
There are also differing opinions in the Trump administration about how much pressure it can put on China’s economy without endangering its own economic fortunes. If additional tariffs cause the Chinese economy to further contract, it would likely come back to bite the United States.
On Wednesday, Jerome H. Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, said the United States economy does not exist in a bubble and faces risks when other major economies stumble. China’s economic woes, he implied, could eventually cause contagion in the United States.
“We have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals about the outlook,” Mr. Powell said. “Growth has slowed in some major foreign economies.”
He added, “We’ve seen that in China and in Western Europe.”
美国和中国的高级官员周三将就贸易问题在艾森豪威尔行政办公楼坐下来进行两天面对面的谈判，事实可能会证明这轮谈判对世界经济发展的方向至关重要。
谈判的目的是结束世界上两个最大经济体之间长达数月的贸易战，参加谈判的美方由贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)牵头，中方由国务院副总理刘鹤带队。特朗普总统计划在周四谈判结束时会见刘鹤。
中美两国面临着在3月2日前达成贸易协议的最后期限，如果协议无法达成，美国将提高对价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品征收的关税。但在最后期限前解决所有问题的可能性极小，据特朗普政府官员的描述，这轮谈判的复杂程度远远超过白宫迄今为止处理过的任何事情。
以下是这轮关键谈判的看点。
华为阴云
就在这轮谈判开始的两天前，美国司法部公布了对中国电信设备巨头华为及其首席财务官孟晚舟范围广泛的指控。华为和孟晚舟被指控窃取商业秘密、妨碍刑事调查，以及逃避美国对伊朗的制裁。
这轮谈判的时机几乎不能再糟了，这就带来了一个问题：特朗普政府公布这些指控是不是为了在谈判前加大对中国的压力。孟晚舟是上个月在加拿大被逮捕的，就在当天晚上，特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平在布宜诺斯艾利斯的20国集团峰会期间共进了晚餐，并同意暂停贸易战。
美国财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)周三将与刘鹤会晤。马努钦在周二说，华为案是与贸易谈判分开处理的。但考虑到中国对逮捕和起诉孟晚舟的愤怒反应，很难想象中国官员在谈判时不会提起这个问题。
“我觉得很难把它们分开对待，”单伟建说，他是住在香港的私募股权投资者，著有描述中国现代史的回忆录《走出戈壁》(Out of the Gobi)一书。“只要中国觉得这是与美国之间的一个重大问题，他们就会提出此事。”
改变中国的经济做法
中国通过大量购买鸡肉、大豆和拖拉机等商品和服务，表明自己愿意设法解决特朗普对双边贸易逆差的担忧。这是谈判最简单的部分。更难的是说服中国对其经济政策进行彻底的改革。
特朗普政府一直在极力推动中国减少对国有企业的补贴，大幅度向外国投资开放市场，并结束迫使美国企业把交出商业秘密作为在中国经商的条件这一长期做法。中国在过去一个月里采取了一些行动，表明它愿意接受这些改变中的部分做法，但特朗普政府内部对中国愿意做的改变是否仅仅是象征性且空洞的姿态存在分歧。
“中国国内自去年12月以来的任何改革都没有真正解决两国贸易关系中的结构性问题，”经济学人信息社(Economist Intelligence Unit)亚洲和中国分析师尼克·马洛(Nick Marro)说。“在增加美国进口或解决人民币汇率问题上取得的进展，并没有真正解决美国贸易代表真正关注的问题，那就是美国公司面临的市场准入这一根本问题。
合同的艺术
贸易谈判面临的最大问题之一是，美国能否真正强制执行任何与北京达成的协议。
特朗普把对价值2500亿美元的中国商品加征关税作为让北京回到谈判桌上来的大棒。但是，如果作为贸易协议的一部分取消关税的话，就无法保证中国将会履行任何承诺。美国官员说，中国过去曾多次违背承诺，官员们已经讨论了一些机制，比如“回征”关税，也就是，如果中国不遵守承诺的话，将重新加征关税。另一个选项是“旋转木马”关税，也就是用关税来打击中国不同种类的产品，以防止中国经济对关税产生适应性。
特朗普政府内部对中国持怀疑态度的人士担心，为了推迟在3月2日提高关税税率，为了让特朗普取消已经加征的关税，中国人什么话都会说。做到这一点后，他们预计中国将会等待特朗普任期结束，并希望会有一个更温和的继任者。
最后阶段
贸易协议往往要到最后一刻才会达成，因此人们对美国和中国本周达成协议的预期不大。更可能的是，两国会各自发表声明，宣布取得了进展，并计划将谈判继续下去。
如果特朗普今年2月去亚洲与朝鲜的金正恩举行第二次峰会，他可能与习近平见面。如果谈判进展顺利，那会给他们一个达成协议的机会。
许多观察人士预计，双方将在达成初步协议上取得进展，最终延长3月份的最后期限，以便处理更棘手的问题。初步协议很可能建立在中国大量购买美国商品的基础上。
特朗普与刘鹤按计划的会面也将给谈判的进展情况提供一点迹象，如果会面发生的话，分析人士将仔细观察总统的肢体语言。当然，所有的目光都将集中在特朗普的Twitter消息上，以此来了解进度。
