中美贸易战：13轮磋商无果 改成“阶段性”方式继续磋；特朗普和刘鹤于1月15日在白宫签署第一阶段经贸协议 (附中英文版本)
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yellow_violence
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逗，美国会造什么？光打枪了。
yellow_violence
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President Donald Trump waves during joint statements with China’s President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017.
Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected.
The bank said in a note that consumer prices are higher partly because Chinese exporters have not lowered their prices to better compete in the US market.
Trump has repeatedly — and inaccurately — claimed that China will pay for tariffs imposed by the U.S.
“One might have expected that Chinese exporters of tariff-affected goods would have to lower their prices somewhat to compete in the US market, sharing in the cost of the tariffs,” Goldman said.
“However, analysis at the extremely detailed item level in the two new studies shows no decline in the prices (exclusive of tariffs) of imported goods from China that faced tariffs.”
In addition, US producers have “opportunistically” hiked prices in response to protection from Chinese competitors, the bank said.
Goldman also said the risk of a final round of tariffs on the roughly $300 billion of remaining imports from China has now risen to 30%.
Further escalation of the trade war could also result in a 0.4% hit to GDP, and if trade tensions instigated a sell-off in the equity market, the growth impact could worsen, Goldman said.
“Our baseline expectation is that the U.S. and China will strike a deal later this year. We think this would come in the form of a gradual, staggered reduction in tariffs on a last-in, first-out schedule,” the bank said.
“There is, however, a risk of further escalation,” Goldman said.
Investors have been grappling with whether the trading relationship between the U.S. and China will actually worsen.
The most recent round of trade talks, which ended on Friday with no final agreement, was overshadowed by President Donald Trump’s decision to more than double tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods, from 10% to 25%.
White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow on Sunday said that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely meet at the June G-20 summit in Japan. He said that he expects China to retaliate against the U.S., and acknowledged that the U.S. will pay for China tariffs.
Some traders are hoping that there’s still time to strike a deal, citing the notion that new tariffs are not applied to Chinese exports that were already in transit before the deadline, which provides more time before tariffs are applied to goods entering the U.S.
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Washington (CNN) American farmers are running out of patience with President Donald Trump's trade war with China.
Farmers have long stood behind Trump's mission to get a better trade deal with Beijing that addresses long-standing issues with what they say are unfair trading practices.
But after weeks of optimistic statements by Trump and members of his administration about how trade talks were progressing, Trump abruptly escalated tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods last week and opened the door to even more -- prompting Beijing to hit back Monday by raising the tariff rate on $60 billion of US items.
The escalated tariffs don't hit agricultural products directly, since most were already facing a 25% tariff imposed by China last year. But the news still sent commodity prices plummeting.
"The President of the United States owes farmers like myself some type of plan of action," John Wesley Boyd Jr., a soybean farmer in Baskerville, Virginia, told CNN's Brianna Keilar on Monday.
"Farmers were his base. They helped elect this president ... and now he's turning his back on America's farmers when we need him the most," he added.
Soybean, corn, and wheat growers have been battling tariffs from China for nearly a year now. Beijing imposed those duties in retaliation to tariffs put on Chinese products by the Trump administration.
The tariffs made those American agricultural products more expensive for Chinese importers, and private buyers have mostly stopped buying American-grown soybeans or wheat.
But Trump has sounded positive about progress toward a deal that would lift those tariffs since meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in December, and farmers took Trump's reassurances seriously.
John Heisdorffer, an Iowa farmer and chairman of the American Soybean Association, decided to plant about the same amount of corn and soybean this year, figuring a trade deal was near.
"We kept hearing that talks were going well, it sure looked like this was all going to be taken care of soon," he said. Now, he added, "there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of emotions right now for farmers."
In the Midwest, they're also battling wet and cold weather that delays their planting season -- and could result in a lower yield for the year. Grant Kimberley in Iowa is still putting his corn crop in the ground, which he usually finishes planting by May 10. He hasn't started planting his soybeans yet.
"This can't go on for an extended period of time. We need a trade deal done soon, and in the meantime farmers are probably going to need another round of aid payments," said Kimberley, who is also the director of market development at the Iowa Soybean Association.
Trump offered aid payments last year to farmers hurt by retaliatory tariffs, worth about $12 billion. It softened the blow, but Kimberley says they'll need more if commodity prices remain low. A recent report from the US Department of Agriculture said the amount of soybeans in storage is up 29% compared to the same time last year.
Speaking to reporters Monday, Trump said he would use some of the tariff revenue -- which is paid by US importers -- to help subsidize farmers.
"They can sell for less and make as much money until it's straightened out. Our farmers will be happy. Our manufacturers will be happy. And our government will be happy because we're taking in tens of billions of dollars," he said.
Trump's tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum have prompted other countries, including allies like Canada and Mexico, to put tariffs on US agricultural products, too. Those duties are also slowing down adoption of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, known as USMCA, which farmers support.
Late last year, Beijing pledged to restart buying American soybeans as part of the negotiations. But purchases made so far haven't made up for the loss last year. China was by far the biggest export market for US soybean growers.
The trade tensions are weighing on farmers, making it difficult to plan for the future. In an April survey conducted by Purdue University and the CME Group, only 22% of farmers stated it was a "good time" to make large farm investments.
On Friday, the leading wheat, soybean and corn grower industry groups put out a joint statement expressing their opposition to Trump's move to escalate tariffs. The three commodities represent about 171 million acre of farmland in the United States.
"Farmers have been patient and willing to let negotiations play out, but with each passing day, patience is wearing thin," said National Corn Growers Association President Lynn Chrisp in the statement. "Agriculture needs certainty, not more tariffs."
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BRUSSELS (Reuters) - After raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump could turn the heat up on Europe as soon as next week when he is due to make a decision about its cars.
FILE PHOTO: Volkswagen export cars are seen in the port of Emden, beside the VW plant, Germany March 9, 2018. REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer
For now, the EU, the world’s biggest trade bloc, is a bystander in the battle between the other two global trade super powers. That is worrying enough for an economy that is slowing.
European leaders and officials had long said they would not discuss trade arrangements under threat of action from Trump, which some likened to negotiating with a gun to the head.
But the prospect of a U.S. decision affecting some 47 billion euros ($53 billion) worth of car and auto part exports has brought them to the table.
Trump received a “Section 232” investigation report in February, widely believed to have concluded that car and auto part imports pose a risk to national security. The president’s 90-day deliberation period is due to end on May 18.
Automakers expect Trump to extend the deadline by up to six months, although he could still give a date to impose new duties if no deals with the EU and Japan are reached.
EU DIVISIONS
Some European officials think Trump will conclude that car tariffs are not worth the domestic pain.
“I predict President Trump will realize that the threat of auto tariffs is better than actual tariffs, which would have a huge domestic impact,” said an EU official who has been closely involved in transatlantic discussion.
EU countries agreed last month to start formal trade negotiations with the United States, notably on a deal to cut duties on industrial goods.
If Washington imposes new trade-restrictive measures, those talks would be suspended and the European Commission would impose duties on 20 billion euros of U.S. goods.
The decision to hold talks even at this point has not been easy, with Germany — responsible for 57 percent of EU auto exports to the United States — in favor of a quick start and France against.
Johan Bjerkem, an analyst at Brussels-based European Policy Center, thinks a Trump decision to impose car tariffs would end that division.
“European countries may be more divided now, because some of them feel the pressure more than other. But once Trump goes ahead then he doesn’t have the same leverage,” he said.
Any announcement by Trump next week would also come at a time when European politicians are under greater pressure than usual to fight their corner, ahead of May 23-26 elections for the European Parliament. Trump is unpopular in Europe, and mainstream parties are fending off challenges from nationalists.
NO TIT-FOR-TAT YET
Trump agreed last July not to impose punitive tariffs on imports of EU cars as both sides looked to improve economic ties. EU trade officials were in Washington this week discussing a possible launch of negotiations, although Brussels has said it will not meet a U.S. demand to include farm products.
Meanwhile, EU steel and aluminum makers remain subject to punitive U.S. import tariffs. The measures, also based on national security, prompted EU counter-measures, with increased tariffs on motorbikes, whisky and other U.S. product.
So far, there has been no tit-for-tat battle, although Trump warned in an April tweet that he would reciprocate for tariffs on Harley-Davidsons.
The European Central Bank has long said protectionism is the single biggest threat to the euro zone economy, with fading confidence outweighing any boost in exports to countries other than the United States.
Europe has also engaged in talks with the United States and Japan to rewrite global trading rules to limit state subsidies and forced technology transfer, with eyes clearly on China.
Car tariffs would not send the EU rushing to Beijing, but would undermine these efforts, according to Guntram Wolff, director of the Bruegel think-tank.
“So Trump would be shooting himself in the foot by making it more difficult for the Europeans to be supportive than now,” he said.
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Factbox - Tariff wars: duties imposed by Trump and U.S. trading partners
May 13, 2019 / 2:21 PM
(Reuters) - China on Monday raised tariffs on $60 billion (£46.28 billion) of U.S. goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion (£154.27 billion) worth of Chinese imports last week, escalating the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
The U.S. national flag is seen at the U.S. Consulate General in Shanghai, China, May 13, 2019. REUTERS/Aly Song
Trump has rattled the world trade order by imposing unilateral tariffs to combat what he calls unfair trade practices by China, the European Union and other major trading partners of the United States.
The bulk of Trump’s tariffs have been aimed at China, covering $250 billion worth of Chinese goods so far. He also has directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to launch the process of imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China, another $300 billion worth of goods.
The latest tariff increases mark an end to a more than five-month truce after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in December 2018 to try to negotiate an end to the dispute.
U.S. TARIFFS ON CHINA
- 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese technology goods including machinery, semiconductors, autos, aircraft parts and intermediate electronics components imposed on July 6 and Aug. 23 as part of “Section 301” probe into China’s intellectual property practices.
- 25% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods including computer modems and routers, printed circuit boards, chemicals, building materials and furniture. A 10% tariff on these goods was imposed on Sept. 24, 2018 as a response to Chinese retaliation. Trump increased the tariff rate to 25% on May 10 after accusing China of backtracking on earlier commitments in the talks.
- Trump also on May 10 directed USTR to start a public comment process for imposing 25% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports. This $300 billion category of goods would hit consumer products hard, including cell phones, computers, clothing, toys and other consumer products.
CHINESE TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- China on May 13 announced it would increase tariffs on a revised list of 5,140 U.S. products, worth about $60 billion, after Trump’s latest move. The additional tariff of 25% will be levied on 2,493 products, including liquefied natural gas, soy oil, peanut oil, petrochemicals, frozen minerals and cosmetics. Other products will see tariffs of 5%-20%
- 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of U.S. goods including soybeans, beef, pork, seafood, vegetables, whiskey, ethanol, imposed on July 6 and Aug. 23 in retaliation for initial rounds of U.S. tariffs. China had suspended a 25% duty on U.S. auto imports during their trade negotiations. Beijing has resumed some purchases of U.S. soybeans but has not formally suspended those tariffs.
- Based on 2018 U.S. Census Bureau trade data, China would only have about $10 billion in U.S. imports left to levy in retaliation for any future U.S. tariffs. Retaliation could come in other forms, such as increased regulatory hurdles for U.S. companies doing business in China.
U.S. GLOBAL TARIFFS
- 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% tariffs on imported aluminium, imposed on March 23, 2018 on national security grounds. Exemptions have been granted to Argentina, Australia, Brazil and South Korea in exchange for quotas, and negotiations over quotas continue with Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
- 20% to 50% tariffs on imported washing machines, imposed on Jan. 22, 2018 as a “global safeguard” action to protect U.S. producers Whirlpool Corp and GE Appliances, a unit of China’s Haier Electronics Group Co Ltd.
- 30% tariffs on imported solar panels, imposed on Jan. 22, 2018 as a “global safeguard” action to protect U.S. producers Solar World, based in Germany, and Suniva, owned by China’s Shunfeng International Clean Energy Ltd.
- Trump is considering tariffs of around 25% on imported cars and auto parts, based on a U.S. Commerce Department study of whether such imports threaten U.S. national security. He faces a May 18 deadline to act on Commerce’s recommendations.
- The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement protects Canadian and Mexican production in the event of such tariffs through a quota system. Trump has pledged not to impose auto tariffs on Japan and the European Union while trade negotiations with those partners are underway.
CANADIAN TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- Canada on July 1 imposed tariffs tinyurl.com/y8w5g895 on $12.6 billion worth of U.S. goods, including steel, aluminium, coffee, ketchup and bourbon whiskey in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium.
MEXICAN TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- Mexico on June 5 imposed tariffs of up to 25% on American steel, pork, cheese, apples, potatoes and bourbon, in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Mexican metals.
EUROPEAN UNION TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- The European Union on June 22 imposed import duties here of 25% on a $2.8 billion range of imports from the United States in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on European steel and aluminium. Targeted U.S. products include Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, peanuts, blue jeans, steel and aluminium.
INDIA TARIFF THREAT
- India, the world’s biggest buyer of U.S. almonds, has threatened to raise import duties on the nuts by 20% and increase tariffs on a range of other farm products and U.S. iron and steel, in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Indian steel. These tariffs have been delayed several times, but an Indian Finance Ministry notice shows that they could be imposed as early as May 16.
- Trump has said that he intends to end preferential trade treatment for India, which would result in U.S. tariffs on up to $5.6 billion of imports from India. This has not happened, but if it does, India is expected to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. goods.
DUELING TARIFFS WITH TURKEY
- Trump in August 2018 doubled U.S. duty rates on steel and aluminium from Turkey to 50% and 20%, respectively, citing national security and currency concerns in an escalating trade spat between the NATO allies.
- Turkey hit back by sharply increasing tariffs on $1.8 billion worth of U.S. goods, including a 120% duty on motor vehicles, 140% on alcoholic beverages, 50% on rice, 50% on structural steel and 60% on beauty products.
- Trump also has said he will end preferential trade treatment for Turkey, a move that would impose tariffs on about $1.66 billion of Turkish imports.
May 13, 2019 / 2:21 PM
(Reuters) - China on Monday raised tariffs on $60 billion (£46.28 billion) of U.S. goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion (£154.27 billion) worth of Chinese imports last week, escalating the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
The U.S. national flag is seen at the U.S. Consulate General in Shanghai, China, May 13, 2019. REUTERS/Aly Song
Trump has rattled the world trade order by imposing unilateral tariffs to combat what he calls unfair trade practices by China, the European Union and other major trading partners of the United States.
The bulk of Trump’s tariffs have been aimed at China, covering $250 billion worth of Chinese goods so far. He also has directed U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to launch the process of imposing tariffs on all remaining imports from China, another $300 billion worth of goods.
The latest tariff increases mark an end to a more than five-month truce after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed in December 2018 to try to negotiate an end to the dispute.
U.S. TARIFFS ON CHINA
- 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese technology goods including machinery, semiconductors, autos, aircraft parts and intermediate electronics components imposed on July 6 and Aug. 23 as part of “Section 301” probe into China’s intellectual property practices.
- 25% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods including computer modems and routers, printed circuit boards, chemicals, building materials and furniture. A 10% tariff on these goods was imposed on Sept. 24, 2018 as a response to Chinese retaliation. Trump increased the tariff rate to 25% on May 10 after accusing China of backtracking on earlier commitments in the talks.
- Trump also on May 10 directed USTR to start a public comment process for imposing 25% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports. This $300 billion category of goods would hit consumer products hard, including cell phones, computers, clothing, toys and other consumer products.
CHINESE TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- China on May 13 announced it would increase tariffs on a revised list of 5,140 U.S. products, worth about $60 billion, after Trump’s latest move. The additional tariff of 25% will be levied on 2,493 products, including liquefied natural gas, soy oil, peanut oil, petrochemicals, frozen minerals and cosmetics. Other products will see tariffs of 5%-20%
- 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of U.S. goods including soybeans, beef, pork, seafood, vegetables, whiskey, ethanol, imposed on July 6 and Aug. 23 in retaliation for initial rounds of U.S. tariffs. China had suspended a 25% duty on U.S. auto imports during their trade negotiations. Beijing has resumed some purchases of U.S. soybeans but has not formally suspended those tariffs.
- Based on 2018 U.S. Census Bureau trade data, China would only have about $10 billion in U.S. imports left to levy in retaliation for any future U.S. tariffs. Retaliation could come in other forms, such as increased regulatory hurdles for U.S. companies doing business in China.
U.S. GLOBAL TARIFFS
- 25% tariffs on imported steel and 10% tariffs on imported aluminium, imposed on March 23, 2018 on national security grounds. Exemptions have been granted to Argentina, Australia, Brazil and South Korea in exchange for quotas, and negotiations over quotas continue with Canada, Mexico and the European Union.
- 20% to 50% tariffs on imported washing machines, imposed on Jan. 22, 2018 as a “global safeguard” action to protect U.S. producers Whirlpool Corp and GE Appliances, a unit of China’s Haier Electronics Group Co Ltd.
- 30% tariffs on imported solar panels, imposed on Jan. 22, 2018 as a “global safeguard” action to protect U.S. producers Solar World, based in Germany, and Suniva, owned by China’s Shunfeng International Clean Energy Ltd.
- Trump is considering tariffs of around 25% on imported cars and auto parts, based on a U.S. Commerce Department study of whether such imports threaten U.S. national security. He faces a May 18 deadline to act on Commerce’s recommendations.
- The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement protects Canadian and Mexican production in the event of such tariffs through a quota system. Trump has pledged not to impose auto tariffs on Japan and the European Union while trade negotiations with those partners are underway.
CANADIAN TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- Canada on July 1 imposed tariffs tinyurl.com/y8w5g895 on $12.6 billion worth of U.S. goods, including steel, aluminium, coffee, ketchup and bourbon whiskey in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium.
MEXICAN TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- Mexico on June 5 imposed tariffs of up to 25% on American steel, pork, cheese, apples, potatoes and bourbon, in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Mexican metals.
EUROPEAN UNION TARIFFS ON UNITED STATES
- The European Union on June 22 imposed import duties here of 25% on a $2.8 billion range of imports from the United States in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on European steel and aluminium. Targeted U.S. products include Harley-Davidson motorcycles, bourbon, peanuts, blue jeans, steel and aluminium.
INDIA TARIFF THREAT
- India, the world’s biggest buyer of U.S. almonds, has threatened to raise import duties on the nuts by 20% and increase tariffs on a range of other farm products and U.S. iron and steel, in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Indian steel. These tariffs have been delayed several times, but an Indian Finance Ministry notice shows that they could be imposed as early as May 16.
- Trump has said that he intends to end preferential trade treatment for India, which would result in U.S. tariffs on up to $5.6 billion of imports from India. This has not happened, but if it does, India is expected to retaliate with tariffs on U.S. goods.
DUELING TARIFFS WITH TURKEY
- Trump in August 2018 doubled U.S. duty rates on steel and aluminium from Turkey to 50% and 20%, respectively, citing national security and currency concerns in an escalating trade spat between the NATO allies.
- Turkey hit back by sharply increasing tariffs on $1.8 billion worth of U.S. goods, including a 120% duty on motor vehicles, 140% on alcoholic beverages, 50% on rice, 50% on structural steel and 60% on beauty products.
- Trump also has said he will end preferential trade treatment for Turkey, a move that would impose tariffs on about $1.66 billion of Turkish imports.
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President Donald Trump said the latest round of retaliatory tariffs announced by China on Monday puts the United States in a great position and represents “a very positive step” in the ongoing trade negotiations.
China retaliated Monday against President Donald Trump’s latest shot in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Beijing said it would hike tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods to as high as 25%.
“I love the position we’re in,” Trump said, adding, “There can be some retaliation, but it can’t be very substantial by comparison.”
Trump also confirmed that he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 summit in Japan in late June.
“We have the right to do [tariffs on] another $325 billion at 25% in additional tariffs” on Chinese goods, Trump said, but he added, “I have not made that decision yet.”
The retaliatory moves by the Chinese followed the Trump administration’s move Friday to hike duties on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25% from 10%.
“We’re taking in tens of billions of dollars” in tariffs, Trump said at a White House meeting with visiting Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Trump did not mention that the tariff dollars are being paid by U.S. consumers, not by China.
The economic conflict widened last week as the two sides struggled to strike a new trade agreement. Trump decided to increase the tariffs following what the U.S. called China’s decision to renege on key parts of a developing deal. Equities markets fell Monday after the Chinese retaliated.
“We had a deal with China, it was 95% of the way there,” Trump said, “and then my representatives ... they went to China, and they were told things [that were fully agreed to] we’re not gonna get anymore, they’re gonna unagree [sic] to them... we’re not gonna get anymore. And I said ‘Good, that’s fine, put on the tariffs,’” Trump recounted.
China’s tariff increases, which raised the duties on thousands of products to 25% and 20% from either 10% or 5% previously, target key areas of Trump’s political base, including manufacturing and agriculture. While the tariffs affect technology components and numerous other manufactured products, they also increase duties on goods such as wheat, peanuts, sugar and berries.
U.S. farmers have suffered from price decreases caused in part by China’s tariffs and have grown increasingly unsettled by the escalating trade war.
Trump also said he would use a portion of the revenues that will be paid by consumers buying Chinese goods under the new tariffs to help provide financial relief for farmers.
Trump has aimed to use the tariffs to pressure China into a trade deal. He has pushed Beijing to address what he calls unfair trade practices such as intellectual property theft and massive trade deficits.
