美帝到目前为止周平均总死亡率为十年新低，远低于创十年纪录高点的前年去年

[Icare]

Is There a Pandemic?

From CDC data, 2020 has the lowest weekly death rate in a decade - so far

www.greenmedinfo.com

 

[A Special Day]

还可以多死些？

 

[CastleCode]

大号流感变成小号流感了。

 

[rentcfc]

所以基数大就是这点好，一人得病一人死，百分之一百死亡率，天塌了。一百万人得病百分之一死亡率，死一万个人都不是个事儿。所以多死的九千九百九十九个人，在政客和舔狗眼里不是命。

 

[lindamy]

Is there a pandemic?

by Colleen Huber, NMD

August 10, 2020

8/13/20 update:
Unfortunately, I have to remove this paper for now.

Some diligent and astute researchers who read my paper have now directed me to data and pages on the CDC website that I had not previously seen, which will likely adjust numbers that I published.

My paper may have to be revised, and my revised paper will appear here when ready. Please know that many researchers are sorting through the data now, and will possibly post their information before mine is figured out. Thank you for your patience and continued interest in this topic.

Is there a pandemic? | primarydoctor

www.primarydoctor.org

 

[lindamy]

离2020过完还有20周，32周和52周的数据比较，难怪作者要删大作呢。

Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year


(And I have seen a lot of terrible analysis) [Update 8/14/2020: the author has taken down the post, but here is an archived 8/13/2020 version of the webpage]

Reader Bruce Hall recommends links to this article which asserts that 2020 is not anomalous in terms of deaths. In fact, it’s 20th out the last 21 years!



Now Ms. Colleen Huber, NMD*** comes to this conclusion thusly:

As of this writing, 32 weeks have elapsed in 2020. However, for each previous year, 52 weeks have already elapsed. How then can we compare deaths from all causes in 2020 to previous years?

I divided the total number of deaths for each year by the number of weeks. That is 52 weeks for all years, except for 2020, in which 32 weeks have elapsed as of this past Saturday, August 8, 2020, which is the most recently updated week in the CDC data cited. This gives us the average number of deaths per week for each of those years, and allows a meaningful comparison between 2020 and prior years.

Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year | Econbrowser

econbrowser.com

 

[lindamy]

刚才没找到这贴，以为炸楼了。抱歉，懒得改了。

美国疫情根本没事?微信疯传"白痴论文"忽悠一堆人
倍可亲2020/08/14 16:07:00 (UTC)18
今天，微信朋友圈里开始流传一篇名为“美国人口数据出炉,这算哪门子疫情?”的文章。

美国疫情根本没事?微信疯传"白痴论文"忽悠一堆人

美国疫情根本没事?微信疯传"白痴论文"忽悠一堆人 倍可亲2020/08/14 16:07:00 (UTC)18 今天，微信朋友圈里开始流传一篇名为“美国人口数据出炉,这算哪门子疫情?”的文章。 Thumbnail view only, Click to view original （截图来自该微信自媒体账号的文章） 这篇文章宣称，美国一个名叫Colleen Huber的“医学博士”经过计算后发现了“让人震惊”的结果：美国2020年前32周的总人口平均死亡率，竟是近10年里美国“最低”的，也是“21世纪开始迄今的21年”中第二低的，仅高于2009年的这一数字。...

bbs.comefromchina.com

 

[CastleCode]

小号流感又转成大号流感了。一天转3遍。

 

[CastleCode]

看错小数点了？变成171.500 有一个是半死不活

 

[臭农民]

医学博士用屁眼读的书吧

 

[Icare]

Is there a pandemic?

by Colleen Huber, NMD

August 10, 2020

浏览附件920649

8/13/20 update:
Unfortunately, I have to remove this paper for now.

Some diligent and astute researchers who read my paper have now directed me to data and pages on the CDC website that I had not previously seen, which will likely adjust numbers that I published.

My paper may have to be revised, and my revised paper will appear here when ready. Please know that many researchers are sorting through the data now, and will possibly post their information before mine is figured out. Thank you for your patience and continued interest in this topic.

Is there a pandemic? | primarydoctor

www.primarydoctor.org

不错。负责的态度。科学本来就是在不断的犯错中前行的。

 

[臭农民]

不错。负责的态度。科学本来就是在不断的犯错中前行的。

这事和科学扯上关系，我情愿是文盲，明明就是作者智商及其低下

 

[Icare]

刚才没找到这贴，以为炸楼了。抱歉，懒得改了。

美国疫情根本没事?微信疯传"白痴论文"忽悠一堆人
倍可亲2020/08/14 16:07:00 (UTC)18
今天，微信朋友圈里开始流传一篇名为“美国人口数据出炉,这算哪门子疫情?”的文章。

美国疫情根本没事?微信疯传"白痴论文"忽悠一堆人

美国疫情根本没事?微信疯传"白痴论文"忽悠一堆人 倍可亲2020/08/14 16:07:00 (UTC)18 今天，微信朋友圈里开始流传一篇名为“美国人口数据出炉,这算哪门子疫情?”的文章。 Thumbnail view only, Click to view original （截图来自该微信自媒体账号的文章） 这篇文章宣称，美国一个名叫Colleen Huber的“医学博士”经过计算后发现了“让人震惊”的结果：美国2020年前32周的总人口平均死亡率，竟是近10年里美国“最低”的，也是“21世纪开始迄今的21年”中第二低的，仅高于2009年的这一数字。...

bbs.comefromchina.com

看了一下这篇长文。CDC的网站没有去查，2020的数据从2月1日开始而不是1月1日很奇怪。原文作者犯这小错也情有可原。知错就认的态度可嘉。科学本来就是在科学家无数次错误中发展至今的。

即使修正这个小错，数据也表明美帝的总死亡率并没有达到让人惊慌失措的地步。而美帝新冠死亡率最高的前十名基本上被左左执政的州揽括。说明如果都像共和党州一样认真应付影响会更低。希望有人在这方面认真做一下比较研究。

 

[臭农民]

看了一下这篇长文。CDC的网站没有去查，2020的数据从2月1日开始而不是1月1日很奇怪。原文作者犯这小错也情有可原。知错就认的态度可嘉。科学本来就是在科学家无数次错误中发展至今的。

即使修正这个小错，数据也表明美帝的总死亡率并没有达到让人惊慌失措的地步。而美帝新冠死亡率最高的前十名基本上被左左执政的州揽括。说明如果都像共和党州一样认真应付影响会更低。希望有人在这方面认真做一下比较研究。

你认真的？ 疫情什么时候失控爆发？要做比较也应该是拿那些时间段和以前同期比吧？

 

[Icare]

你认真的？ 疫情什么时候失控爆发？要做比较也应该是拿那些时间段和以前同期比吧？

用过去十年的平均趋势比没什么错。当然她可以用过去十年的数据逐周比较，但缺点是会loss the big picture。在她心目中1月到8月初过半年的时间，也cover流感爆发的第一季度。当然她可以逐周比较后再和每年周平均比较，只是一来不知道CDC网站上是否有完整数据（比如2020年的就不全）二来如果她觉得无此必要也无可厚非。

包括完整第一季度正是为了算计流感因素，不是吗？