It’s important to understand that the 25% tariffs announced by President Trump today are NOT imposed on Canada — they will be paid by American consumers and businesses who buy goods imported from Canada. Tariffs are a tax, and Americans who will have to pay more or go without our products will be the first to suffer.
Of course, Canadian exporters of these goods will as a consequence lose clients, contracts and sales, and will be forced to cut down on production and lay off workers. Or they will lower their prices to keep market shares and will see their profits diminish.
Because 75% of our exports go south of the border, our economy will for sure be very negatively impacted by this.
The stupidest thing our government can do however to deal with this crisis is to impose the same kind of tariffs “dollar for dollar” against US imports.
The US economy is ten times bigger than ours, much less reliant on trade than ours, and much less dependent on our market than we are on theirs.
Not only would retaliatory tariffs have much less impact on American exporters, they would immediately impoverish Canadian consumers forced to pay more for imported goods, as well as destabilize Canadian businesses that need inputs from the US in their production processes. It would more than double the harm of the US tariffs to our economy.
Trade wars are bad for everyone, but they are much worse for a small country with fewer options. We simply cannot win a trade war with the US. It’s very unlikely that Trump will back down. All we will do is provoke a massive economic crisis in Canada, until we are forced to capitulate.
Another self-destructive thing to do would be to set up giant “pandemic-level” bailout plans to support everyone affected by this trade war. This will simply bankrupt our governments even more than they already are and make us even weaker.
So what should we do?
1. Double down on efforts to control our border, crack down on fentanyl dealers, deport all illegals, and impose a complete moratorium on immigration, to answer Trump’s immediate concerns about Canada.
2. Tell the US administration that we are ready to renegotiate North American free trade and put dairy supply management and other contentious issues on the table.
3. Wait and see to what extent Trump is willing to keep tariffs in place despite the harm it does to the US economy. Despite his pretenses that Americans don’t need our stuff, the reality is that on the contrary they have few other options for crucial resources like oil, lumber, uranium and other minerals, etc. He will stop acting like a bully when he sees that he can get more results by sitting down and negotiating.
4. To reduce our dependence on the US market, immediately implement an ambitious plan to tear down interprovincial trade barriers and help our impacted exporting industries find alternative markets in other countries.
5. Immediately implement a series of bold reforms to make our economy more productive, including: reduce corporate and personal taxes, abolish the capital gains tax, abolish all corporate subsidies, get rid of excessive regulation, remove impediments to the exploitation and export of natural resources, drastically cut government spending, mandate the Bank of Canada to stop printing money and start accumulating a gold reserve to prepare for the global monetary reset (which is likely part of Trump’s plan).
In short, instead of adopting a suicidal strategy to confront Trump, we must do what we should have done a long time ago to strengthen our economy and our bargaining position. The transition will be rough, but not as much as complete bankruptcy and disintegration.
重要的是要明白，特朗普总统今天宣布的 25% 关税并非针对加拿大——这些关税将由购买从加拿大进口的商品的美国消费者和企业支付。关税是一种税，而那些不得不支付更多或无法获得我们产品的美国人将是首当其冲的受害者。
当然，这些商品的加拿大出口商将因此失去客户、合同和销售，并将被迫削减产量和裁员。或者他们会降低价格以保持市场份额，利润也会减少。
由于我们 75% 的出口产品销往边境以南，我们的经济肯定会受到非常负面的影响。
然而，我们政府为应对这场危机所能做的最愚蠢的事情是对美国进口产品“一美元对一美元”征收同样的关税。
美国经济比我们的经济大十倍，对贸易的依赖程度远低于我们的经济，对我们市场的依赖程度也远低于我们对他们的市场的依赖程度。
报复性关税不仅对美国出口商的影响小得多，还会立即使加拿大消费者陷入贫困，被迫为进口商品支付更多费用，并破坏需要美国投入生产过程的加拿大企业的稳定。这将使美国关税对我们经济的危害增加一倍以上。
贸易战对每个人都不利，但对一个选择较少的小国来说，情况更糟。我们根本无法赢得与美国的贸易战。特朗普不太可能退缩。我们所做的只是在加拿大引发一场大规模的经济危机，直到我们被迫投降。
另一个自毁行为是制定庞大的“大流行级”救助计划，以支持所有受这场贸易战影响的人。这只会让我们的政府比现在更加破产，让我们变得更加虚弱。
那么我们该怎么办？
1. 加倍努力管控我们的边境，打击芬太尼贩子，驱逐所有非法移民，全面暂停移民，以回应特朗普对加拿大的迫切担忧。
2. 告诉美国政府，我们已准备好重新谈判北美自由贸易，并将乳制品供应管理和其他有争议的问题摆上台面。
3. 等着看特朗普在多大程度上愿意维持关税，尽管这会损害美国经济。尽管他假装美国人不需要我们的东西，但事实是，相反，他们在石油、木材、铀和其他矿物等关键资源方面几乎没有其他选择。当他看到坐下来谈判可以获得更多成果时，他就不会再像个恶霸一样行事了。
4. 为了减少我们对美国市场的依赖，立即实施一项雄心勃勃的计划，拆除省际贸易壁垒，帮助我们受影响的出口行业在其他国家找到替代市场。
5. 立即实施一系列大胆改革，提高我们的经济生产力，包括：降低企业和个人所得税，废除资本利得税，取消所有企业补贴，取消过度监管，消除对自然资源开采和出口的障碍，大幅削减政府开支，要求加拿大银行停止印钞，开始积累黄金储备，为全球货币重置做准备（这很可能是特朗普计划的一部分）。
简而言之，我们不应该采取自杀式策略来对抗特朗普，而应该做我们早就应该做的事情，以加强我们的经济和谈判地位。过渡期将是艰难的，但不会像彻底破产和解体那么艰难。
Of course, Canadian exporters of these goods will as a consequence lose clients, contracts and sales, and will be forced to cut down on production and lay off workers. Or they will lower their prices to keep market shares and will see their profits diminish.
Because 75% of our exports go south of the border, our economy will for sure be very negatively impacted by this.
The stupidest thing our government can do however to deal with this crisis is to impose the same kind of tariffs “dollar for dollar” against US imports.
The US economy is ten times bigger than ours, much less reliant on trade than ours, and much less dependent on our market than we are on theirs.
Not only would retaliatory tariffs have much less impact on American exporters, they would immediately impoverish Canadian consumers forced to pay more for imported goods, as well as destabilize Canadian businesses that need inputs from the US in their production processes. It would more than double the harm of the US tariffs to our economy.
Trade wars are bad for everyone, but they are much worse for a small country with fewer options. We simply cannot win a trade war with the US. It’s very unlikely that Trump will back down. All we will do is provoke a massive economic crisis in Canada, until we are forced to capitulate.
Another self-destructive thing to do would be to set up giant “pandemic-level” bailout plans to support everyone affected by this trade war. This will simply bankrupt our governments even more than they already are and make us even weaker.
So what should we do?
1. Double down on efforts to control our border, crack down on fentanyl dealers, deport all illegals, and impose a complete moratorium on immigration, to answer Trump’s immediate concerns about Canada.
2. Tell the US administration that we are ready to renegotiate North American free trade and put dairy supply management and other contentious issues on the table.
3. Wait and see to what extent Trump is willing to keep tariffs in place despite the harm it does to the US economy. Despite his pretenses that Americans don’t need our stuff, the reality is that on the contrary they have few other options for crucial resources like oil, lumber, uranium and other minerals, etc. He will stop acting like a bully when he sees that he can get more results by sitting down and negotiating.
4. To reduce our dependence on the US market, immediately implement an ambitious plan to tear down interprovincial trade barriers and help our impacted exporting industries find alternative markets in other countries.
5. Immediately implement a series of bold reforms to make our economy more productive, including: reduce corporate and personal taxes, abolish the capital gains tax, abolish all corporate subsidies, get rid of excessive regulation, remove impediments to the exploitation and export of natural resources, drastically cut government spending, mandate the Bank of Canada to stop printing money and start accumulating a gold reserve to prepare for the global monetary reset (which is likely part of Trump’s plan).
In short, instead of adopting a suicidal strategy to confront Trump, we must do what we should have done a long time ago to strengthen our economy and our bargaining position. The transition will be rough, but not as much as complete bankruptcy and disintegration.
重要的是要明白，特朗普总统今天宣布的 25% 关税并非针对加拿大——这些关税将由购买从加拿大进口的商品的美国消费者和企业支付。关税是一种税，而那些不得不支付更多或无法获得我们产品的美国人将是首当其冲的受害者。
当然，这些商品的加拿大出口商将因此失去客户、合同和销售，并将被迫削减产量和裁员。或者他们会降低价格以保持市场份额，利润也会减少。
由于我们 75% 的出口产品销往边境以南，我们的经济肯定会受到非常负面的影响。
然而，我们政府为应对这场危机所能做的最愚蠢的事情是对美国进口产品“一美元对一美元”征收同样的关税。
美国经济比我们的经济大十倍，对贸易的依赖程度远低于我们的经济，对我们市场的依赖程度也远低于我们对他们的市场的依赖程度。
报复性关税不仅对美国出口商的影响小得多，还会立即使加拿大消费者陷入贫困，被迫为进口商品支付更多费用，并破坏需要美国投入生产过程的加拿大企业的稳定。这将使美国关税对我们经济的危害增加一倍以上。
贸易战对每个人都不利，但对一个选择较少的小国来说，情况更糟。我们根本无法赢得与美国的贸易战。特朗普不太可能退缩。我们所做的只是在加拿大引发一场大规模的经济危机，直到我们被迫投降。
另一个自毁行为是制定庞大的“大流行级”救助计划，以支持所有受这场贸易战影响的人。这只会让我们的政府比现在更加破产，让我们变得更加虚弱。
那么我们该怎么办？
1. 加倍努力管控我们的边境，打击芬太尼贩子，驱逐所有非法移民，全面暂停移民，以回应特朗普对加拿大的迫切担忧。
2. 告诉美国政府，我们已准备好重新谈判北美自由贸易，并将乳制品供应管理和其他有争议的问题摆上台面。
3. 等着看特朗普在多大程度上愿意维持关税，尽管这会损害美国经济。尽管他假装美国人不需要我们的东西，但事实是，相反，他们在石油、木材、铀和其他矿物等关键资源方面几乎没有其他选择。当他看到坐下来谈判可以获得更多成果时，他就不会再像个恶霸一样行事了。
4. 为了减少我们对美国市场的依赖，立即实施一项雄心勃勃的计划，拆除省际贸易壁垒，帮助我们受影响的出口行业在其他国家找到替代市场。
5. 立即实施一系列大胆改革，提高我们的经济生产力，包括：降低企业和个人所得税，废除资本利得税，取消所有企业补贴，取消过度监管，消除对自然资源开采和出口的障碍，大幅削减政府开支，要求加拿大银行停止印钞，开始积累黄金储备，为全球货币重置做准备（这很可能是特朗普计划的一部分）。
简而言之，我们不应该采取自杀式策略来对抗特朗普，而应该做我们早就应该做的事情，以加强我们的经济和谈判地位。过渡期将是艰难的，但不会像彻底破产和解体那么艰难。
