桥水老板说出了川普疯狂的根本原因

[billwanhua]

If you think the current outlook is bad, just wait until the White House can’t find anyone to buy its debt, warns Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio warned the White House may have to exert further political pressure on foreign governments in order to deal with a looming debt crisis.

fortune.com

If you think the current outlook is bad, just wait until the White House can’t find anyone to buy its debt, warns Ray Dalio

就是没钱了，中国一直在出美债，日本也穷得开始出美债。按照目前赤字速度，迟早破产。

收关税就是筹钱，因为没有任何政客敢直接加税的。

• Ray Dalio warns the U.S. faces an imminent debt crisis as its debt-to-GDP ratio climbs past 122%, with experts worried foreign buyers will pull back or raise interest payments, making borrowing unsustainable. He suggests drastic measures may be needed, including debt restructuring, political pressure on buyers, and potentially cutting payments to certain countries.

他还说，除了赖帐没有什么其他选项.


Japan's Treasuries holdings fell to $1.060 trillion from $1.087 trillion the previous month. Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities. China, which is No. 2, cut its holdings to $759 billion from $768.6 billion in November.Feb 18, 2025

 

[渥村一丁]

地主家也没有余粮了

 

[冬暖]

不能接着发债吗？最近美债涨得很高

 

[向问天]

缺钱就应该继续量化宽松。
美国的国债根本就不可能还的。
借36万亿跟360万亿没区别，利息都不用还，索性流氓。

 

[billwanhua]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/us-budget-deficit-surged-in-february-passing-1-trillion-for-new-year-to-date-record.html

U.S. budget deficit surged in February, passing $1 trillion for year-to-date record
继续，出来混，终究是要还的，不停给屁民发钱，经济非常好的时候，赤字还一直加速上升，如果一个人换了高薪工作，加了工资，负债却一直上升，银行不会继续借钱给他

 

[ottawa_tj]

关键是能收上来多少关税？

 

[billwanhua]

关键是能收上来多少关税？

3.81T*25%=0.95T

 

[gocanoeing]

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/12/us-budget-deficit-surged-in-february-passing-1-trillion-for-new-year-to-date-record.html

U.S. budget deficit surged in February, passing $1 trillion for year-to-date record
继续，出来混，终究是要还的，不停给屁民发钱，经济非常好的时候，赤字还一直加速上升，如果一个人换了高薪工作，加了工资，负债却一直上升，银行不会继续借钱给他

个人不行，国家可能可以

只要央行同意继续买财政部债卷，政府就有钱

一个副作用是发债太多，通胀可能高

从另一个角度，
如果通胀率是2%，每年自动还债约1/50
如果通胀率是5%，每年自动还债约1/20
如果通胀率是10%，每年自动还债约1/10
如果通胀率是100%，每年自动还债约10/10

 

[billwanhua]

个人不行，国家可能可以

只要央行同意继续买财政部债卷，政府就有钱

一个副作用是发债太多，通胀可能高

从另一个角度，
如果通胀率是2%，每年自动还债约1/50
如果通胀率是5%，每年自动还债约1/20
如果通胀率是10%，每年自动还债约1/10
如果通胀率是100%，每年自动还债约10/10

The Fed purchases Treasury securities held by the public through a competitive bidding process. The Fed does not purchase new Treasury securities directly from the U.S. Treasury, and purchases of Treasury securities from the public are not a means of financing the federal deficit.

How it Works:
Buying Bonds: When the Fed buys bonds, it injects cash into the banking system, increasing the money supply and potentially lowering interest rates.
Selling Bonds: When the Fed sells bonds, it removes cash from the banking system, decreasing the money supply and potentially raising interest rates.
Open Market vs. Direct Purchases:
The Fed purchases Treasury securities in the open market, meaning it buys them from primary dealers (major financial firms) rather than directly from the Treasury.

如果Fed破了规矩直接买，其他人都吓跑了，那外国人谁去买？

 

[welcomelm]

The Fed purchases Treasury securities held by the public through a competitive bidding process. The Fed does not purchase new Treasury securities directly from the U.S. Treasury, and purchases of Treasury securities from the public are not a means of financing the federal deficit.

How it Works:
Buying Bonds: When the Fed buys bonds, it injects cash into the banking system, increasing the money supply and potentially lowering interest rates.
Selling Bonds: When the Fed sells bonds, it removes cash from the banking system, decreasing the money supply and potentially raising interest rates.
Open Market vs. Direct Purchases:
The Fed purchases Treasury securities in the open market, meaning it buys them from primary dealers (major financial firms) rather than directly from the Treasury.

如果Fed破了规矩直接买，其他人都吓跑了，那外国人谁去买？

人民银行就直接从财政部买国债，好像也没把谁吓跑

 

[gocanoeing]

The Fed purchases Treasury securities held by the public through a competitive bidding process. The Fed does not purchase new Treasury securities directly from the U.S. Treasury, and purchases of Treasury securities from the public are not a means of financing the federal deficit.

How it Works:
Buying Bonds: When the Fed buys bonds, it injects cash into the banking system, increasing the money supply and potentially lowering interest rates.
Selling Bonds: When the Fed sells bonds, it removes cash from the banking system, decreasing the money supply and potentially raising interest rates.
Open Market vs. Direct Purchases:
The Fed purchases Treasury securities in the open market, meaning it buys them from primary dealers (major financial firms) rather than directly from the Treasury.

如果Fed破了规矩直接买，其他人都吓跑了，那外国人谁去买？

规矩可以改
床总擅长签行政命令，不够还可以考虑立法
直接印之后就不需要外国人了，当然也不必挡着

 

[billwanhua]

人民银行就直接从财政部买国债，好像也没把谁吓跑

没有外国人买中国和日本国债吧，美元是国际货币不一样

 

[billwanhua]

规矩可以改
床总擅长签行政命令，不够还可以考虑立法
直接印之后就不需要外国人了，当然也不必挡着

有这种好事，外国人高兴得很，全卖给Fed,

 

[gocanoeing]

有这种好事，外国人高兴得很，全卖给Fed,

Fed直接买是只对财政部

 

[welcomelm]

没有外国人买中国和日本国债吧，美元是国际货币不一样

美国既然都小政府了，而且也从国际事务中撤退了，还需要那么多钱干嘛？我觉得养美国政府肯定比养中国政府便宜