刚用了几个AI TOOL, 查了一下
2024年， 美国的贸易总赤字是 0.918T，
昨天一个新闻说美国的贸易赤字占所有赤字国家总额60-66%
即使完全把川普的流氓行径因素去除，美国希望贸易平衡的想法是有相当合理的空间。
兼听则明。这就基本解释了为什么2次10% 全球市场都作为很大利好，因为本身美国的做法有一定合理的地方， 10% 虽然超过目前世界各国平均的TARRIF， 但考虑到美国实际占全球接近2/3 的赤字， 就是说美国是给全世界最大的甲方。 10% 如果能摆平争端，是个总体相对平稳的方案。
In 2024, the U.S. trade deficit in goods and services reached
918.4billion∗∗,markinga17918.4billion∗∗,
Based on the most recent data available, here is a list of the top 10 countries with the highest trade deficits in 2023:
| Rank | Country | Trade Deficit (USD billions) |
|---|
| 1 | United States | 1,100.0 |
| 2 | India | 245.5 |
| 3 | United Kingdom | 233.1 |
| 4 | Türkiye | 86.3 |
| 5 | France | 82.3 |
| 6 | Philippines | 65.9 |
| 7 | Japan | 47.9 |
| 8 | Spain | 37.5 |
| 9 | Greece | 35.7 |
| 10 | Romania | 31.3 |
贸易不平衡是双方供需不平衡造成的，关税起到一些作用，如果两国之间，关税不平等，应当谈判解决，比如川普总说印度有些商品征收美国700%关税，加拿大奶制品收美国 300% 关税。印度的事不了解。
这篇文章解释了加拿大奶制品300%是误导，只有超过配额之后，而这个高关税从来没有发生过。如果加拿大不加配额上限，很快会将整个市场输给美国。这个限额在2020年，川普亲自签署的新北美贸易协议CUSMO中已经提高。
Fact-checking Trump’s claims that Canada has 300% tariffs on U.S. dairy
By
Tammy Ibrahimpoor
Published: April 09, 2025 at 5:00AM EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Canada is taking advantage of the United States through dairy tariffs. Speaking to reporters in the White House Rose Garden to announce his global tariffs on April 3, Trump said that Canada imposes a 250 to 300 per cent tariff on U.S. dairy products.
However, a closer look at trade rules and data shows these claims are misleading.
Trump has repeatedly cited those high tariff figures, and while they technically exist, they only apply to products that exceed Canada’s tariff rate quotas (TRQs). In practice, U.S. dairy exports to Canada do not come close to reaching those limits — meaning they face no tariffs at all.
“It’s a false claim,” Bruce Muirhead, dairy policy expert and history professor at the University of Waterloo, told CTV News.ca. “We do have tariff rates of 200 or even 285 per cent against American dairy imports — but only after they fill their tariff rate quota. And they have never filled their tariff rate quota. Ever.”
Muirhead said cheese is the only category in which U.S. exporters have come close.
“But for the others, it’s not nearly that much,” he said. “Everything else goes down to zero at the very bottom of the list — products they haven’t even attempted to fill.”
The
Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which Trump himself negotiated and signed in 2020, increased U.S. access to the Canadian dairy market by raising those quota thresholds.
While
Canada’s supply management system does limit imports to protect domestic producers, it does so in a way that is allowed under international trade rules.
High over-quota tariffs were introduced in Canada to discourage excessive imports and protect the domestic market.
“They just wanted to make sure that nothing further would get into the country beyond the TRQ,” Muirhead explained, adding that Americans have exactly the same rationale. “In fact, their percentage that’s open is less than ours. So, in a sense, it’s hypocritical — they want access to our market, but they have the same kind of system in theirs.”
Despite Trump’s rhetoric, Canada remains a major importer of U.S. dairy. In 2024, the U.S.
exported more than US$1.1 billion in dairy products to Canada, marking an 82 per cent increase over the past decade.
Canada is the second-largest international market for U.S. dairy, behind only Mexico.
Muirhead says part of the problem is the structural difference in the scale of dairy production.
“They simply produce far too much milk for their own market, and for their own processing capacity,” he said. “So, they are desperate to get unfettered access to our market.”
The proximity of major U.S. dairy regions to the Canadian border, makes it a desirable target for exports. But, Muirhead warned,
“if you allow them unfettered access to your market, you’ll lose your entire dairy market.”
He added that despite the political attention Trump continues to give the issue, dairy makes up only a tiny fraction of overall trade between the two countries.
“It’s totally insignificant,” Muirhead said. “Why would a president focus on 0.1 per cent of trade between the two countries? It makes no sense at all.”
He says part of the reason is that milk carries enormous cultural weight in the U.S.
“No matter who’s in office — Senate, House, or the executive branch — they’re all just focused on dairy in a way that I don’t think we in Canada really understand,” Muirhead said. “It doesn’t have the same cultural resonance here that it does there. But for Trump, it plays.”
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that Canada is taking advantage of the United States through dairy tariffs. Speaking to reporters in the White House Rose Garden to announce his global tariffs on April 3, Trump said that Canada imposes a 250 to 300 per cent tariff on U.S. dairy...
www.ctvnews.ca
