俄乌最新28点和平方案

[dreamland]

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/11/21/trump-ukraine-peace-deal-00665416

The Trump administration believes the moment to pressure Ukraine into a peace agreement is at hand, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy particularly weak at home and plagued by a corruption scandal that poses the most direct threat to his leadership since Russia invaded in 2022.

“The Ukrainians will have to accept [the deal] given the weakness of Zelenskyy’s current position,” said a senior White House official, who, like others, in the story, was granted anonymity to discuss the negotiations.

果然乌克兰腐败是个大棋，明确说了斯基因为腐败而必须接受。
哎，小国成了政治玩偶

最近爆出的乌克兰最大的腐败案，其实是川普政府为了施压司机，故意放出来消息的。

世界各国军队都有腐败，美国也不例外，美国整个军工集合体就是最大的腐败窝。那9万美元一袋的螺丝螺帽，最后谁也没进监狱，更不用说军工项目多年拖沓，现在的美国军队还是用20年前的东西充门面。

 

[gocanoeing]

 

[dreamland]

最有意思的是第14条

俄罗斯被西方冻结了2000亿美元

这第14条，就是是说把2000亿中一半完全还给俄罗斯

另外1000亿，名义上算是给乌克兰补偿或重建，但其中500亿给美国，另外500亿是美俄联合项目

其他的27条，基本就是认可俄罗斯侵略的所有所得，并给正名。

这条唯一一条有俄罗斯带有”补偿“性质的，就被俄罗斯美国控制，实际就是500亿给美国当做佣金，另外500亿美俄共同控制的合资或联合体控制，重建不够的部分由欧洲出钱。
这比当年甲午海战，八国联军丧权辱国的条约还要苛刻1个数量级


14.冻结的俄罗斯资产将用于如下用途：约 100 0 亿美元被用于美国领导下的乌克兰重建／投资；美国获利润份额；欧洲出资配套；剩余资产用于美俄联合项目以建立利益绑定。

 

[metropolis]

你一脑袋浆糊，丢失领土有两种，第一是冷冻现状，但是法律上不承认， 五年，十年后还有权拿回来。第二就是在法理上承认疆域变更。乌克兰接受第一种，不接受第二种，学着点。

你再教教从哪里能看出28条中这两条关于领土的属于你说的第一种？据报道司机已经说“尊重美国的终战意愿。”

还有那14条，真是屈辱至极了，冻结的俄国资产如果能用早就花光了，还等着现在被美国抢？

21. 领土问题：

• 克里米亚、卢甘斯克和顿涅茨克将被承认为俄罗斯事实上的领土，包括由美国承认。
• 赫尔松和扎波罗热（州）将沿接触线冻结，这将意味着沿接触线的事实承认。
• 俄罗斯将放弃其在这五个州之外控制的其他商定领土。
• 乌克兰军队将从其目前控制的顿涅茨克州部分地区撤出，该撤出区将被视为中立非军事缓冲区，国际承认其为属于俄罗斯联邦的领土。俄罗斯军队不得进入该非军事区。

22. 在就未来领土安排达成一致后，俄罗斯联邦和乌克兰均承诺不以武力改变这些安排。任何违反此承诺的情况都将不适用安全担保条款。

 

[metropolis]

据说28条规定的卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克比俄国现在控制区还要大，所以乌克兰需要从部分顿涅斯克控制区撤出。

赫尔松，扎波罗热在现有接触线冻结。

俄国也要放弃其他部分地区。

21.领土条款：
•克里米亚、卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克将被承认为事实上的俄罗斯控制区。
•赫尔松、扎波罗热在现有接触线冻结。
•俄方将放弃其控制的其他部分地区（协议中有描述）。
•乌克兰军队将从部分顿涅茨克州控制区域撤出，形成一个国际承认的中立、非军事化缓冲区。

 

[春夏秋鼕]

From chatgpt:

Good question. Here’s a summary of what’s been reported about the 28-point peace plan (reportedly between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine) — sources differ, and not every point is fully public, but this is a near-complete breakdown based on media leaks. (Axios)

---

Summary of the 28-Point Plan​

1. Confirm Ukraine’s sovereignty. (Newsweek)
2. Non-aggression pact between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, settling “ambiguities” of the last 30 years. (Axios)
3. No further NATO expansion, and Russia agrees not to invade neighboring countries. (Newsweek)
4. U.S.-mediated dialogue between NATO and Russia to resolve security issues and de-escalate. (Global Upfront Newspapers)
5. Security guarantees to Ukraine (from the U.S.). (Axios)
6. Limit Ukrainian armed forces to 600,000 personnel. (Newsweek)
7. Ukraine constitutionally renounces NATO membership, and NATO agrees not to admit Ukraine in the future. (Newsweek)
8. NATO troops not to be stationed in Ukraine. (Sky News)
9. European fighter jets to be stationed in Poland. (Sky News)
10. U.S. compensation for security guarantee; if Russia invades, sanctions are reinstated, and recognition of territory can be revoked. (Sky News)
11. Ukraine eligible for EU membership (or at least gets a path / market access). (Newsweek)
12. Ukraine Development Fund: invest in tech, data centers, AI, and rebuild infrastructure. Joint effort with U.S. on gas pipelines, reconstruction. (Anadolu Ajansı)
13. Russia reintegration to the global economy: phased lifting of sanctions; long-term cooperation in energy, infrastructure, AI, rare-earth mining; invite Russia back to G-8. (www.ndtv.com)
14. Use of frozen Russian assets: $100B to rebuild Ukraine; Europe adds $100B; U.S. to get 50% of profits; remainder into U.S.-Russia joint investment fund. (Anadolu Ajansı)
15. Joint U.S.-Russia working group for security oversight. (www.ndtv.com)
16. Russia legally commits to non-aggression vs. Ukraine and Europe. (IntelliNews)
17. Extend nuclear arms control treaties, including START-like agreements. (www.ndtv.com)
18. Ukraine remains a non-nuclear state, per NPT. (www.ndtv.com)
19. Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to be restarted under IAEA supervision; electricity split 50/50 between Russia and Ukraine. (IntelliNews)
20. Education & tolerance programs: both countries implement programs to promote understanding, eliminate racism; reject “Nazi ideology.” (IntelliNews)
21. Territorial arrangements:
    
    • Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk: recognized as de facto Russian by U.S. (IntelliNews)
    • Kherson and Zaporizhzhia: “frozen” along current lines of contact. (IntelliNews)
    • Russia renounces claims to other territories beyond those regions. (IntelliNews)
    • Ukraine withdraws its troops from parts of Donetsk; that zone becomes a demilitarized buffer recognized as Russian territory, but Russia’s forces cannot enter that buffer. (IntelliNews)
22. Future territorial changes can’t be made by force; security guarantees void if this commitment is broken. (Newsweek)
23. Dnipro River & Black Sea: Russia allows Ukraine commercial use; free grain transport via Black Sea. (IntelliNews)
24. Humanitarian committee:
    
    • Exchange of all prisoners and bodies. (IntelliNews)
    • Return of civilian detainees/hostages, including children. (Newsweek)
    • Family reunification programs. (IntelliNews)
    • Measures to help conflict victims. (IntelliNews)
25. Elections in Ukraine within 100 days of agreement. (IntelliNews)
26. Full amnesty: all parties get amnesty for wartime actions; no future legal claims. (Axios)
27. Legally binding agreement: implementation overseen by a Peace Council chaired by Donald Trump; sanctions for violations. (IntelliNews)
28. Immediate ceasefire once both sides withdraw to agreed lines. (Al Jazeera)

---

Analysis / Commentary​

• The plan is very favorable to Russia in many people's view: it asks Ukraine to give up territory (Crimea, parts of Donbas) and make major military and constitutional concessions. (Al Jazeera)
• It leverages frozen Russian assets to rebuild Ukraine — but with a very big role for the U.S. and joint U.S.-Russia investment. (CBS News)
• There is a security risk: if Ukraine breaks certain terms, guarantees could be voided, and there are controversial enforcement mechanisms. (Sky News)
• Some human rights / accountability concerns: the plan includes amnesty for wartime actions, potentially limiting legal recourse for victims. (The Washington Post)
• Nuclear and non-proliferation aspects are addressed: extension of arms control, and Ukraine remains non-nuclear. (www.ndtv.com)

---

If you like, I can pull up the full original leaked text (or as close as is publicly available) — do you want me to do that?

• reuters.com
• ft.com
• theguardian.com

 

[ASSISTANT]

直接拒绝两大国，不智。民国初期。英策划西藏独立，俄策划外蒙独立，到后来二十一条。袁世凯策略就是个拖。后来一战爆发，英俄无暇估计中国事物，拖黄了。二十一条起初最厉害的几条，也拖黄了

 

[metropolis]

法国孩子不会在乌克兰作战牺牲​

德正 法新社
2025年11月21日2025年11月21日


法国拥有一支现代化的职业军队

在法国军界高层做出舍不得孩子就得不到国家安全的论述引爆社会争论后，政府发言人出面告知，“我们的孩子不会在乌克兰作战牺牲。"

（德国之声中文网）法军最高将领、总参谋长曼东(Fabien Mandon)上将11月18日在各地市长会议上说：“如果我们不愿失去自己的孩子而导致国家陷入动荡，那么我们就处于危险之中。”曼东认为，以法国所拥有的知识、经济实力与人口规模，足以威慑莫斯科政权，“但我们缺乏的是承受苦难从而捍卫自身尊严的精神力量”。这位法军最高将领还在会上呼吁各地市长在各自辖区内就此展开讨论。

曼东的这番言论在法国国内引发轩然大波。许多反对派政治人物都出面谴责了曼东的说法。左翼民粹领袖梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)在社媒发帖说，“敦促市长或其他任何人为未经任何人决定的战争行为做好准备，并非他的职责。”右翼民粹阵营的舍努(Sébastien Chenu)也认为，曼东发出此类警告涉嫌“越权”。

11月21日，面对持续发酵的争议，法国政府也出面做出解释。在法国电视一台(TF1)的节目中，政府发言人布雷容(Maud Bregeon)说：“我们的孩子不会在乌克兰作战牺牲。”她强调，法国目前拥有一支职业化的军队，同时也说：“我们不能忽视这样一个事实，那就是一些士兵已经在海外行动中丧生。”布雷容证实，政府正在考虑引入志愿兵役制，“但我们还没有到那一步”。

法国孩子不会在乌克兰作战牺牲 – DW – 2025年11月21日

在法国军界高层做出舍不得孩子就得不到国家安全的论述引爆社会争论后，政府发言人出面告知，“我们的孩子不会在乌克兰作战牺牲。"

www.dw.com