最初由 thegayer 发布
不咿嘱回?╋大??要用武力其?是?胚??铨的最低?╋在呃之上有很??的?判空殓。再?也是?胚海?铨的?心酌明╋不惜?中?的命哕?。其?也十分?酷╋不咿?了靳一什?是都是?办生。
Besides my haterd for TD, I also very much strongly oppose using force. I feel it is NOT a practical option at all. It serves nothing positive to the fundamentals of unification cause of great China. On the contrary, it will undermine it over much longer period. Because even we win the war and we will not have the hearts of the people (even those of ppl vote aginst TD this time), thus we lost the cause. To reunite is to unite the people and land of China. But the hearts of the people should be first. When we have this million acres of land, but there are little willing people on it. IMO, it is just as goods as a bloated fart.
The day when the missles fly, China as whole in history and the country & people advancement on both sides of the Strait will never be the same again.
Use force we will have two simplified outcomes. (1) We win (2) We fail.
In scenario (1): We win the war, but lose the cause. Most optmistically, after take over TW in a US-in-iraq style war, best, we might suceed making TW more or less like HK; a puppet goverment that do not represent voter's will. But at cost of ten's of thosands of human lives and trillions of dollards forever-lost over likely over 2+ decades. Opportunity cost & money aside, worse yet, there are at least more than 50% of the people (30 some millions) in TW will remeber who drop the bombs on them and for what. We still lose the hearts. We lost, period.
I can draw a paralle on this kinda of unification. It happened before, when USSR took over some small slav countries at end of WWII. See what happen to them now.... The truth is that the history and memory, especially painful ones, will outlast any regime or party. One day, when hard-line CPP is gone, the compounded 15 millions pieces of memories will come back haunt us on this "treasure island". (That is exactly how some Ex-east europe bloc countries like Yugo, Kosovo, after USSR collaps, bursted into so many conflicts involving some of most senseless and inhuman revenges & killings in modern history.) These kinda memories can be repressed for many many years, but never forgotten. So in summary, over the long term, "war == lost heart == lost unification cause."
In the scenario (2), which very little people are willing to think about in this group is most grave. See this line of discussion
http://www.comefromchina.com/newbbs/showthread.php?s=&forumid=98&threadid=251356
).
