[闲聊] [问题] 临近死亡体验

[wushuren]

最初由 roaring mouse 发布
言归正题，昨天在杜兰城听了 Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski (布热津斯基) 之演讲.

#1 Basically, in the next 20 years, US will be bogged down in wars with iraq, iran, afghanistan and pakistan. After the war, US may no longer be the superpower it is.
#2 Democracy cannot be enforced. Democracy is of diversity. Japan's is different from US' and UK's democracy is not the same as US's.
#3. Even US tries to force democracy in middle east, the next democracy will emerge in China. But China's democracy will not be the same as that of US.
#4. US should prevent the formation of triangle by China, India and Russia.

此人似乎预见了新的民主体制在中国的崛起。但是他不如本人的想法走得远。

他所谓的现有民主的不同，在西方社会，英国，美国和日本并没有本质区别。

本人认为新的民主体制的崛起是继文艺复兴以后的另一次民主革命和改良。

 

[wushuren]

加上全球化，如何保持各地多样性，和民主的全面推广统一调和起来。现在的西方民主体制做不到。

 

[如假包换的马甲]

最初由 roaring mouse 发布


3 or 4 days ago, I said twice here it was DNDN's time to run. At that time, that stock was about $4. This morning, it stands at $18.50. That is more than 250% in less than a week. They have a cancer drug approved yesterday. That is the power of love, saving people's lives and making money at the same time.

Next time, I will definitely listen to you

 

[roaring mouse]

最初由 如假包换的马甲 发布


Next time, I will definitely listen to you

I might be wrong. Use your own judgement.

I am kind of a speculator. But in this case, an informed speculator. My major area of speculation is biotech stocks.

As I said, when opportunity knocks on the door, I will answer it.

Next one I am looking at right now is TRMS. It is about $7 and my target is between $10 and 12 within 3 or 4 months. It is kind of too long. Remember more than 200% profit happens only once or twice a year.

 

[uknowhat]

最初由 如假包换的马甲 发布


Next time, I will definitely listen to you

你要是真听了她的，你就会血本无归跳楼吧。

 

[如假包换的马甲]

最初由 uknowhat 发布

你要是真听了她的，你就会血本无归跳楼吧。

How so? if anybody listen to you, that will be a problem

 

[roaring mouse]

Question: what flowers are blooming now ?

最初由 如假包换的马甲 发布


How so? if anybody listen to you, that will be a problem

I just came back from a trip to Charleston, SC, a beautiful place.

I met a lady at the Middleton Place (that is where Gone with the wind was filmed). She just came back from Guangzhou. She said it was beautiful there and the flowers were blooming there and she asked me what flowers they were. I said I did not know.

A few weeks back, you posted some pictures of some floras in Guangzhou. What are those called?

I have never been to Guangdong though I have been to HongKong twice.

 

[如假包换的马甲]

Re: Question: what flowers are blooming now ?

最初由 roaring mouse 发布


I just came back from a trip to Charleston, SC, a beautiful place.

I met a lady at the Middleton Place (that is where Gone with the wind was filmed). She just came back from Guangzhou. She said it was beautiful there and the flowers were blooming there and she asked me what flowers they were. I said I did not know.

A few weeks back, you posted some pictures of some floras in Guangzhou. What are those called?

I have never been to Guangdong though I have been to HongKong twice.

I love flowers! Seeing flowers brightens my mood instantly.

GuangZhou, a city of flowers. Spring and summer all year round. A evergreen place.

There are all sorts of flowers there. I can only name a few.

 

[如假包换的马甲]

Re: Question: what flowers are blooming now ?

最初由 roaring mouse 发布

A few weeks back, you posted some pictures of some floras in Guangzhou. What are those called?

http://www.comefromchina.com/newbbs/showthread.php?s=&threadid=535231

 

[roaring mouse]

Re: Re: Question: what flowers are blooming now ?

最初由 如假包换的马甲 发布


http://www.comefromchina.com/newbbs/showthread.php?s=&threadid=535231

thanks for the info/pictures.
hope someday i can go & visit there. i think i was too young when i left china. i had not been to shanghai and souther china before i left the country. the only cities i lived or visited are beijing, xian and lasha.

 

[contractor]

最初由 roaring mouse 发布
言归正题，昨天在杜兰城听了 Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski (布热津斯基) 之演讲.

#4. US should prevent the formation of triangle by China, India and Russia.

China, India and Russia 这三个世界上心眼最多的民族，互相不打起来，就是世界的福分了。

最初由 roaring mouse 发布


thanks for the info/pictures.
hope someday i can go & visit there. i think i was too young when i left china. i had not been to shanghai and souther china before i left the country. the only cities i lived or visited are beijing, xian and lasha.

lasha 是 西藏的拉萨 吗?

 

[roaring mouse]

最初由 contractor 发布


lasha 是 西藏的拉萨 吗?

should be spelled Lhasa; u r right

 

[contractor]

你去了拉萨，怎么没去日喀则? 拉萨和日喀则之间的风景，也很不错的， 很苍凉。

 

[roaring mouse]

最初由 roaring mouse 发布
言归正题，昨天在杜兰城听了 Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski (布热津斯基) 之演讲.

#1 Basically, in the next 20 years, US will be bogged down in wars with iraq, iran, afghanistan and pakistan. After the war, US may no longer be the superpower it is.
#2 Democracy cannot be enforced. Democracy is of diversity. Japan's is different from US' and UK's democracy is not the same as US's.
#3. Even US tries to force democracy in middle east, the next democracy will emerge in China. But China's democracy will not be the same as that of US.
#4. US should prevent the formation of triangle by China, India and Russia.

布热津斯基与恐怖主义
－俞力工－



　　布热津斯基（Ｚｂｉｇｎｉｅｗ　Ｂｒｚｅｚｉｎｓｋｉ）毫无疑问是美国当今影响力最大的战略家。虽然由于其民主党背景不为共和党政府重用，但他对国际问题的广泛了解，以及对美国的全球战略部署所提出的一系列建议，始终深深影响美国朝野人士，而其若干地缘战略专著，也早已是国际政治学不可或缺的参考读物。


　　笔者前后汇集了一系列有关“情报与宣传”的资料，却发现遗漏了这篇重要采访记录。本以为可从中文网站信手下载，然而惊奇发现中文媒体里甚至连提到该采访内容的都凤毛麟角，为填补此一空白，笔者特将采访记录翻译如下：


　　采访单位：法国“新观察”Ｌｅ　Ｎｏｕｖｅｌ　Ｏｂｓｅｒｖａｔｅｕｒ，　Ｐａｒｉｓ


　　采访对象：布热津斯基，卡特总统时代的国家安全顾问，现为约翰斯・霍普金斯大学高级国际问题研究学院教授，以及美国战略和国际问题研究中心高级顾问。


　　时间：１９９８年１月１５日


　　英文译文见：ｇｌｏｂａｌｒｅｓｅａｒｃｈ．ｃａ／ａｒｔｉｃｌｅｓ／ｂｒｚ１１０ａ．ｈｔｍｌ


问：中央情报局前局长盖兹（按：Ｒｏｂｅｒｔ　Ｇａｔｅｓ，现任国防部长）在其回忆录（Ｆｒｏｍ　ｔｈｅ　Ｓｈａｄｏｗ）指出，美国情报当局在苏联军事干预阿富汗之前六个月即已开始支援阿富汗民兵。此期间你正担任卡特政府的国家安全顾问，自然在此事件中起很大作用。事情真是如此吗？　


布：对，根据官方版本对这段历史的介绍，中情局对民兵的援助始于１９８０年，这表示，迟于苏联进攻阿富汗的１９７９年１２月２４日。该真相至今对外密不宣布，而实际情况却是另一回事。卡特总统早于１９７９年７月３日便签署了第一道秘密援助喀布尔亲苏政府的反对派的命令。就那一天，我给卡特总统递了张条子，说明据我判断该援助计划将诱使苏联进行军事干预。　


问：尽管冒着风险，你仍旧支持这个秘密行动计划，或说明你根本就乐见苏联陷入战争，而刻意加以引诱？　


布：也不完全如此，我们可没逼迫苏联进行干预，而只是有意地提高其可能性。　


问：苏联提出辩解，说是其干预行动的目的在于对付美国在阿富汗的秘密行动。尽管他们的辩解不能取信于人，却说的是实话，今天你不觉得有些过意不去吗？　


布：过意不去？这又是为什么？进行秘密援助根本就是个高招。它的结果就是让苏联跌进阿富汗这陷阱。你怎么会觉得我该过意不去？当苏联队伍跨越边境的那一天，我写信给卡特总统说，我们终于等到个机会，让苏联也趟入一场越战。几近１０年时光，苏联果真陷入了一场令其政府无法支撑的战争，使得该帝国信心丧尽、分崩离析。　


问：那么你们支持伊斯兰原教旨主义，使得这些未来的恐怖分子又有武装，又有技术，你也毫不后悔吗？　


布：就世界历程而言，究竟什么是最重要？是塔利班重要呢？还是苏联帝国的崩溃？是些瞎闹闹的穆斯林重要呢？还是解放东欧和结束冷战？　


问：瞎闹闹的穆斯林？不是一再有人强调当前全球最大的祸患就是伊斯兰原教旨主义吗？　


布：这是无稽之谈！如果认为西方非得采取全球战略来对付伊斯兰，则是愚蠢不过。我们只要理性地加以观察，不要煽情，不带情绪，世上根本就不存在什么全球性伊斯兰教运动，伊斯兰只不过是个拥有１５亿信徒的宗教。难道在沙特阿拉伯原教旨主义、摩洛哥温和派、巴基斯坦军国主义、亲西方的埃及、或世俗化的中亚之间有任何共同点吗？他们之间的联系决不会比基督教国家之间更多。（采访完）　


　　这段简短的采访里，布热津斯基透露了许多重要信息。一是美国如何利用特工活动支援某一国家的反对派；二是诱使敌国陷入深渊；三是说明今天的恐怖分子不过是八、九十年代美国、英国、巴基斯坦、沙特阿拉伯联手培训的塔利班民兵与特工。笔者需要补充的是，透过塔利班经院招募和培训的多为阿富汗难民，给与军事训练后，主要任务为打击苏联占领军。至于本拉登受命主持的“基地”组织，则是招募来自４０多个国家的伊斯兰知识分子，其培训项目专攻爆破技术，而肩负的任务不是对苏联正规军进行作战，而是在敌后进行颠覆和破坏。在这前后培训的３５０００恐怖分子中，也包括千名左右的疆独分子。这揭示了，在中美蜜月期间，还真有背后插刀事。不过，苏联于１９８９年阿富汗撤军后，这批国际恐怖分子就四下乱窜，以至于在印尼、菲律宾、克什米尔、印度、巴基斯坦、中国、中亚、俄罗斯、巴尔干、土耳其、东非、北非、欧洲、美国都留下了恐怖主义犯罪的痕迹。不言而喻，受害最烈者，自然是那些境内存在伊斯兰教徒独立运动的国家，如印度、俄罗斯与中国。鉴于此，培训恐怖分子的目标其实是一石多鸟，只不过采访单位不太灵光，没有打破沙锅问到底。


　　言及此，笔者以为最重要的信息在于最后一段对恐怖主义、伊斯兰教和原教旨主义的判断。布热津斯基既然是该培训计划的总设计师，事前定然对后果有个估算。在他看来，所谓恐怖分子不过是捣蛋分子，对付他们绝不需要大张旗鼓发动战争。此外伊斯兰教团体之间也无“轴心”可言，因此任何蓄意夸大的文化、宗教冲突，包括十字军东征，目的决不在于对付恐怖分子和伊斯兰教威胁，而在于布什政府正在实施一个连布热津斯基都感到不可理喻的恐怖计划。