Couple of years ago, one guy spent 1 month with a small team doing business analysis on Video Renting/Distribution industry. Three companies were NFLX, Blockbuster, and another US company focusing on movies at retailer/vendor machine.
The conclusions were:
- Strong buy on NFLX
- Drop Blockbuster
- Do not add/drop any position on that 3rd one.
NFLX was $8 then, and Blockbuster was $20+
Now NFLX is $160, and Blockbuster goes bankrupt.
3rd one kept flat for many years
What if anyone in that team followed their own research result and did actual transaction? $10,000 could turn to $200,000 now.
Or is it just part of the life?
What if one predicts there will be another telecom boom coming in 1-2 years? Given the fact that real high quality/revenue paid video contents surface out firmly now from IPhone/Ipod/Ipad/Netflix/VOD/networked Media Player/etc.
Let's see how this goes.
There are always lots of opportunities there, many "small"s can turn big some day, only thing matters is the action to follow up with strategy and research.