2/6/12 Watchlist and Clinical Database Summary

nepean_01

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We have an exciting week on tap, with two FDA AdComs. We are also awaiting twp PDUFA dates which occur next week, lets take a look:
NGSX / ASTX - Both of these companies have panels this week, which is interesting as both are up for sNDAs. This means the drug is already approved, but they are seeking approval for a different indication. The FDA normally releases its 'notes' two days in advance. Recently though they have been releasing documents a bit early, providing quite the trading opportunity for those who watch the FDA's website for updates.
BPAX - BPAX has a PDUFA next week for its Bio-T-Gel. This approval means very little for the company and any spike in share price will likely be short lived. As I have said in the past, any spike in share price in BPAX due to approval will quickly fade and it may be an easy shorting opportunity.
CORT - The most interesting PDUFA date we have in a while is CORT, which is scheduled for NEXT Friday (2/17). CORT has traded poorly recently and the price targets range from $1 on a CRL to $8 on FDA approval. This is one to watch, and will make options trading very interesting.
2-3-12 Catalyst Summary: ALXA, GTHP, IDRA, NBIX, ORMP, CLDX, ADXS, IDIX, SCMP, TLON, and THLD

CTIC
Cell Therapeutics
Price: $1.07
Market Cap: $206
CTIC has (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01321541) with results expected in the 4th quarter of 2012 for PHASE 3 trial in patients with B-cell Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma (NHL), in JANUARY 2012 withdrew NDA seeking approval for relapsed or refractory NHL and plans to resubmit in 2012. CHMP (EMA) opinion expected in mid-FEBRUARY 2012 for EU approval decision.

DND.TO
Cipher Pharma (CPHMF.PK)
Price: $1.04
Market Cap: $25
DND.TO has a PDUFA decision goal date of 5/29/12 under six-month Class 2 review seeking approval for novel formulation of acne drug isotretinoin. They are partnered with Ranbaxy in US. During the 2nd quarter of 2011 completed pivotal PHASE 3 safety trial under SPA to support amended NDA filing. Health Canada decision expected during the 1st quarter of 2013.

ZIOP
Ziopharm Oncology
Price: $5.58
Market Cap: $382
In JANUARY 2012, ZIOP announced independent data monitoring committee unanimously recommended pivotal PHASE 3 trial continue as planned for front-line treatment of metastatic soft tissue sarcoma. They expect to complete enrollment by end 1st quarter of 2012 with primary outcome of progression-free survival (PFS) data expected the 2nd half of 2012, and expects to begin PHASE 3 trial for small cell lung cancer (SCLC) the 2nd half of 2012.

ISTA
ISTA Pharma
Price: $8.10
Market Cap: $336
ISTA expects to file NDA during the 1st half of 2012. They are seeking FDA approval for treatment of post-operative inflammation and reduction of eye pain following cataract removal surgery. VRX unsolicited bid for $7.50 a share cash buyout withdrawn on 1/30/12 due to lack of progress on negotiations.

NPSP
NPS Pharma
Price: $7.67
Market Cap: $660
On 1/31/12, NPSP reported FDA accepted NDA seeking approval as once-daily subcutaneous treatment for short bowel syndrome. They expect a reply within 14 days (2/14/12) for FDA to issue PDUFA decision goal date. Their EU partner Nycomed submitted MAA to EMA in MAR 2011 with expected decision during the 1st quarter of 2012.

ACRX
AcelRx Pharma
Price: $3.22
Market Cap: $63
ACRX expects to dose first patient in first of three planned pivotal PHASE 3 trials (vs. placebo after abdominal and orthopedic surgeries and vs. IV morphine in post-operative patients) by late 1st quarter of 2012-early 2nd quarter of 2012 after software validation completed. It is being developed as patient-controlled analgesia (pain relief) system following surgery.

ARRY
Array BioPharma
Price: $2.97
Market Cap: $173
ARRY has ongoing PHASE 2 trial for treatment of chronic pain in patients with osteoarthritis being compared to OxyContin and placebo for moderate to severe pain in approximately 150 patients that require pain treatment beyond continuing NSAID (e.g. ibuprofen or naproxen) use. They expect to report top-line results during the 1st half of 2012.

DSCO
Discovery Labs
Price: $2.60
Market Cap: $64
In SEPTEMBER 2011, FDA accepted NDA resubmission as six-month Class 2 review with PDUFA decision goal date of 3/6/12. They are seeking approval to prevent respiratory distress syndrome in premature infants, in FEBRUARY 2012 registered AFECTAIR (ventilator connector to deliver aerosol drugs) with FDA (510k exempt) and expect EU clearance for this device the 2nd half of 2012.

DVAX
Dynavax
Price: $4.05
Market Cap: $605
In FEBRUARY 2012, DVAX announced results of pre-BLA meeting with FDA and plans to submit initial BLA by mid-MAY 2012 seeking approval to vaccinate healthy adults age 18-70 against hepatitis B infection. They plan to file sBLA for patients with chronic kidney disease after initial BLA is approved.

ARIA
Ariad Pharma
Price: $15.07
Market Cap: $2,002
On 10/5/11, ARIA announced FDA accepted NDA for 10-month standard review seeking approval for treatment of metastatic soft tissue or bone sarcomas in patients with favorable response to chemo. Their partner is MRK filed for US and EU approval in 3rd quarter of 2011. The estimated FDA decision by 6/5/12 and EU decision during the 1st half of 2012 with FDA advisory panel meeting scheduled 3/20/12.

IDIX
Idenix Pharma
Price: $11.68
Market Cap: $1,123
In FEBRUARY 2012, IDIX FDA removed partial clinical hold allowing enrollment of 30 additional patients in ongoing PHASE 2B trial (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01371604 with final results expected 2nd half of 2013 in combo with interferon and ribavirin) and start new PHASE 2B program (oral interferon-free combo regimens) in coming months for treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

SCMP
Sucampo Pharma
Price: $6.24
Market Cap: $261
In FEBRUARY 2012, SCMP reported PHASE 3 trial-met primary endpoint for Opioid-Induced Bowel Dysfunction (OBD) and plans to file sNDA during the 1st half of 2012. The expected Japan NDA and UK MHRA decisions are during the 1st half of 2012 and arbitration decision with US co-promotion partner Takeda expected during the 1st quarter of 2012.

TLON
Talon Therapeutics (formerly Hana Biosciences)
Price: $0.89
Market Cap: $19
On 9/27/11, TLON announced accelerated FDA review (based on PHASE 2 data) with PDUFA decision goal date of 5/13/12 under standard 10-month review. They are seeking approval for treatment of adults with Philadelphia Chromosome Negative ALL, FDA advisory panel meeting scheduled for 3/21/12.

THLD
Threshold Pharma
Price: $2.99
Market Cap: $147
In SEPTEMBER 2011, THLD announced start of pivotal PHASE 3 trial under SPA in patients with soft tissue sarcoma in combo with doxorubicin (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT01440088) with expected update on interim analysis around year-end 2012. In FEBRUARY 2012, licensed (global) to Merck KGaA for $25M upfront, up to $35M milestone paymentss in 2012 ($525M total) and 70% cost-sharing.
 
Lazycacat, 药股方面,今年我快意抓捕了DNDN(已翻倍但坚决不卖,等第一根大阴出来再卖,我对跟我买的朋友说了谁卖我跟谁急,呵呵),HGSI(已赚50%,也是不卖)。ARNA和OREX和VVUS是我的长仓。特别是ARNA呵OREX是只上不下了,呵呵,在FDA PANEL会前卖应该是万无一失的。大家自个儿更努力的研究吧。赚钱不能靠做偷鸡摸狗的PENNY股票的。

我特别想念DNDN 福建林大哥的深入研究啊。特别谢谢他。:cool:
 
懒猫,我知道您喜欢研究,我特意给您个长长的单,够看了吧?

我有一些专业的深入研究报告,如果你们想要,请QQH我,我会传给你们。很长很长的报告,看了我都打瞌睡的。

非诚勿扰。;)
 
懒猫,我知道您喜欢研究,我特意给您个长长的单,够看了吧?

我有一些专业的深入研究报告,如果你们想要,请QQH我,我会传给你们。很长很长的报告,看了我都打瞌睡的。

非诚勿扰。;)


It is great that you are back to bio now. Not sure what report do you have - are they related to the companies you mention ?

Do you like to focus on VVUS ? Along with ARNA and OREX ? VVUS option pricing for March is quite agressive in both directions. However, ARNA and OREX are dormant.

The interesting point is impact of VVUS success on ARNA and OREX. On VVUX alone, my bet is failure of the application ...

Jia studied these companies in depth and wish he is still reading this board ...
 
DNDN 今天一天再次狂飙15%

DNDN 今天一天再次狂飙15%,HGSI也狂飙。呵呵。他们对我来说还是非卖品。呵呵。
 
amln may be interesting too
 
VVUS, ARNA & OREX - Part One

It is hard to believe that this trio is in play again. Lesson learned is never to give up, like on DNDN etc.

Bio is perfect for betting on tail risk as nobody has real knowledge of what is going to happen. However, one needs to find a right angle - or some angle that may provide surprises at low cost. Here is an idea on this trio.

OREX needs two years for trial and thus is probably out. This leaves ARNA and VVUS. ARNA will have a FDA event in late June that will determine its fate.

Outcomes from VVUS might be follows:

1. Strong recommendation by the panel.
2. Outright rejection by the panel.
3. Weak recommendation by the panel.
 
VVUS, ARNA & OREX - Part Two

Now, VVUS has a market cap of over $1 B while ARNA has a market cap of $300 M. There might be some differences between their products but let's treat them as equal for now:

1. With strong recommendation, it is probably reasonable for ARNA to reach $500 M market cap since its event is coming in June.

2. With rejection, VVUS probably will dive below $5 as its drug is dead. ARNA share may take a hit but may hold above its cash value of $1.50.

3. With weak recommendation, there might be no volatility in share prices of both companies. That volatility will move down to full FDA approval for VVUS and I don't know when that will be.

Assuming ARNA and VVUS are closely co-related, one probably can make a bet without potential loss of capital. Say, buying March ARNA calls and buying VVUS March put.

The catch will be 3. There is no protection against loss since option premium will evaporate pretty soon.

However, scenario 3 will provide a play on sequel, i.e. on full FDA panel.

So, if one has some money to lose and wants to bet, one could speculate on 1 and 2 but need to leave some dispensable capital to prepare for 3.
 
我对ITMN很感兴趣,懒猫能详细介绍一下吗?

万分感谢。
 
我对ITMN很感兴趣,懒猫能详细介绍一下吗?

万分感谢。

I don't know ITMN well. The US trial result shall be available in the middle of 2013. It takes 52 weeks. Near-term event is its deals with EU countries. Germany probably will publish something in mid March.

Option premium of ITMN is very high. If I have to take a bet, I think selling slightly below money put probably makes sense. It probably won't crash till middle of 2013 unless there are some bad news from EU patients.

If you plan to dive in, I think downward protection is always needed...I don't know why the premium is so high given the final results are more than 1 year away.
 
Near term, the vvus/arna is probably interesting....
 
我昨天突然想起MDVN,我以前重仓10块多一点,就是那天从40多暴跌的那天买得。但
当天就卖了。郁闷。猜现在多少了?
 
我昨天突然想起MDVN,我以前重仓10块多一点,就是那天从40多暴跌的那天买得。但
当天就卖了。郁闷。猜现在多少了?


Never look back, even one second in stock market...except to summarise lessons learnt.

You mentioned you had a lot of reports. Do you have ones on BAC and SU (or other oil sands) ? In return, I can share thoughts (if you care to read...)
 
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