还在涨，这次搞大了
- 主题发起人 不错
- 开始时间
ray902
新手上路
- 注册
- 2002-12-25
- 消息
- 3,687
- 荣誉分数
- 1
- 声望点数
- 0
U.S. still faces ‘cross winds’: Greenspan
The U.S. economy continues to be “buffeted by strong cross currents” but an expected pickup in activity isn’t unreasonable, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday.
But, speaking in Washington, the head of the U.S. central bank again said it remains unclear how quickly the world’s biggest economy will start to show solid improvement, noting also that second-quarter growth is likely to be "quite soft."
“We do not yet have sufficient information on economic activity following the end of hostilities to make a firm judgment about the current underlying strength of the real economy,” Mr. Greenspan said in prepared testimony that was delivered to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington.
Mr. Greenspan’s latest appearance before the committee was being closely watched because of recent concerns over the sliding U.S. dollar and the threat of deflation, which was flagged in the central bank’s latest monetary policy decision. Responding to questions following his remarks, Mr. Greenspan restated that only the U.S. Secretary Treasury could comment on the strength of the currency.
Recent worries over falling consumer prices, meanwhile, have fuelled speculation that the Fed may again cut interest rates at its next policy meeting next month. Wednesday's comments suggested the central bank remains vigilant on that front, although it still appeared to consider the possibility of true deflation remote.
“In recent months, inflation has dropped to very low levels,” Mr. Greenspan said Wednesday.
“…Energy prices already are reacting to the decline in crude oil prices, and core consumer price inflation has been minimal.”
While energy price declines in the weeks after the war were encouraging -- with West Texas crude prices falling below $26 (U.S.) a barrel, some of that unravelling of oil prices has been reversed recently with the price of crude returning to near $30 a barrel as indications of delays in restoring Iraqi crude production became evident.
That trend, he said, is “worrisome,” although he also noted that the price of crude oil is still about $10 per barrel below its peak in February.
Over all inflation, he said, is “now sufficiently low” that it no longer appears to be much of a factor “in the economic calculations of households and businesses.”
“Indeed, we have reached a point at which, in the judgment of the Federal Open Market Committee, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation over the next few quarters, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation,” he said.
During his appearance, he also described the threat of deflation as minor, although it still requires "very close scrutiny and - maybe, maybe - action on the part of the central bank."
In terms of an economic recovery, Mr. Greenspan said there still isn't enough information about how activity was doing in the period immediately after the end of the war in Iraq “to make a firm judgment” about the underlying strength of the economy. The latest data on both employment and production, he said, have been disappointing.
“Because of the normal lags in scheduling production and in making employment decisions, these movements likely reflect business decisions that, for the most part, were made prior to the start of the war, and many more weeks of data will be needed to confidently discern the underlying trends in these areas,” he said.
One reassuring development, Mr. Greenspan said, has been the sustained productivity performance through the period of economic weakness. Labour productivity, he said, has continued to post solid gains.
“Nonetheless, the economy continues to be buffeted by strong cross currents. Recent readings on production and employment have been on the weak side, but the economic fundamentals -- including the improved conditions in financial markets and the continued growth in productivity -- augur well for the future,” he said.
Economists described Mr. Greenspan’s comments as relatively cautious, noting that he continued to emphasize the uncertainty surrounding the prospects for the U.S. economy.
“He also did not step up his deflation warnings, saying only that the near-term risks of deflation were greater than of excessive inflation at this time, supporting the Fed’s easing bias,” Royal Bank of Canada conomist Allan Seychuk noted in a commentary.
“Reflecting the cautious nature of the comments bonds were relatively flat after Greenspan’s testimony, though bonds caught a bid on heightened terrorism fears.”
Answering questions, Mr. Greenspan also dismissed any suggestion that the Fed is running out of room when it comes to rate cuts to fight further economic weakness. The key Fed funds rate is now 1.25 per cent, its lowest level in four decades.
In addition to short-term stimulus, the Fed can also buy longer-term Treasury securities to influence interest rates.
“Should it turn out for reasons that we don’t expect, but certainly there is a concern it may happen, that pressures drive the Fed funds rate closer to zero, that does not mean that the Federal Reserve is out of business,” Mr. Greenspan said.
“We see no credible possibility that we will at any point run out of monetary ammunition to address problems of deflation or anything else that disrupts our economy.”
The U.S. economy continues to be “buffeted by strong cross currents” but an expected pickup in activity isn’t unreasonable, U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday.
But, speaking in Washington, the head of the U.S. central bank again said it remains unclear how quickly the world’s biggest economy will start to show solid improvement, noting also that second-quarter growth is likely to be "quite soft."
“We do not yet have sufficient information on economic activity following the end of hostilities to make a firm judgment about the current underlying strength of the real economy,” Mr. Greenspan said in prepared testimony that was delivered to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee in Washington.
Mr. Greenspan’s latest appearance before the committee was being closely watched because of recent concerns over the sliding U.S. dollar and the threat of deflation, which was flagged in the central bank’s latest monetary policy decision. Responding to questions following his remarks, Mr. Greenspan restated that only the U.S. Secretary Treasury could comment on the strength of the currency.
Recent worries over falling consumer prices, meanwhile, have fuelled speculation that the Fed may again cut interest rates at its next policy meeting next month. Wednesday's comments suggested the central bank remains vigilant on that front, although it still appeared to consider the possibility of true deflation remote.
“In recent months, inflation has dropped to very low levels,” Mr. Greenspan said Wednesday.
“…Energy prices already are reacting to the decline in crude oil prices, and core consumer price inflation has been minimal.”
While energy price declines in the weeks after the war were encouraging -- with West Texas crude prices falling below $26 (U.S.) a barrel, some of that unravelling of oil prices has been reversed recently with the price of crude returning to near $30 a barrel as indications of delays in restoring Iraqi crude production became evident.
That trend, he said, is “worrisome,” although he also noted that the price of crude oil is still about $10 per barrel below its peak in February.
Over all inflation, he said, is “now sufficiently low” that it no longer appears to be much of a factor “in the economic calculations of households and businesses.”
“Indeed, we have reached a point at which, in the judgment of the Federal Open Market Committee, the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation over the next few quarters, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation,” he said.
During his appearance, he also described the threat of deflation as minor, although it still requires "very close scrutiny and - maybe, maybe - action on the part of the central bank."
In terms of an economic recovery, Mr. Greenspan said there still isn't enough information about how activity was doing in the period immediately after the end of the war in Iraq “to make a firm judgment” about the underlying strength of the economy. The latest data on both employment and production, he said, have been disappointing.
“Because of the normal lags in scheduling production and in making employment decisions, these movements likely reflect business decisions that, for the most part, were made prior to the start of the war, and many more weeks of data will be needed to confidently discern the underlying trends in these areas,” he said.
One reassuring development, Mr. Greenspan said, has been the sustained productivity performance through the period of economic weakness. Labour productivity, he said, has continued to post solid gains.
“Nonetheless, the economy continues to be buffeted by strong cross currents. Recent readings on production and employment have been on the weak side, but the economic fundamentals -- including the improved conditions in financial markets and the continued growth in productivity -- augur well for the future,” he said.
Economists described Mr. Greenspan’s comments as relatively cautious, noting that he continued to emphasize the uncertainty surrounding the prospects for the U.S. economy.
“He also did not step up his deflation warnings, saying only that the near-term risks of deflation were greater than of excessive inflation at this time, supporting the Fed’s easing bias,” Royal Bank of Canada conomist Allan Seychuk noted in a commentary.
“Reflecting the cautious nature of the comments bonds were relatively flat after Greenspan’s testimony, though bonds caught a bid on heightened terrorism fears.”
Answering questions, Mr. Greenspan also dismissed any suggestion that the Fed is running out of room when it comes to rate cuts to fight further economic weakness. The key Fed funds rate is now 1.25 per cent, its lowest level in four decades.
In addition to short-term stimulus, the Fed can also buy longer-term Treasury securities to influence interest rates.
“Should it turn out for reasons that we don’t expect, but certainly there is a concern it may happen, that pressures drive the Fed funds rate closer to zero, that does not mean that the Federal Reserve is out of business,” Mr. Greenspan said.
“We see no credible possibility that we will at any point run out of monetary ammunition to address problems of deflation or anything else that disrupts our economy.”
