The Canadian job market again shattered expectations in March, posting the biggest single month increase in job creation in 26 years, Statistics Canada said Friday.
"This isn't a red-hot performance," TD Bank senior economist Marc Lévesque told globeandmail.com "It's a white-hot performance."
"It's hard to describe because you get this huge increase in employment that really blows all of the expectations out of the water in the first two months of the year and then you another huge increase in March."
During the month, a total of 88,100 jobs were created ― the best monthly figure since March, 1976. The jobless rate, meanwhile, fell to 7.7 per cent, from 7.9 per cent the month before.
The loonie rose and domestic bonds fell sharply in reaction to the report, which again showed the Canadian economy was fast out of the gate in 2002.
The Canadian dollar opened at 62.90 cents (U.S.), up 0.15 of a cent from Thursday's closing price. By 10:37 a.m. EST, it was trading at the 62.92 cent mark.
Throughout the year, this country's labour force has continued to speed past forecasts, erasing earlier predictions that the Canadian economy would be slow to recover from last year's slowdown.
Economists have been scrambling in recent weeks to revise forecasts upward amid a steady stream of stronger-than-expected economic reports.
Friday's surprisingly strong labour force survey ― the last major economic report before the Bank of Canada's April 16 decision on interest rates ― has already prompted some economists to speculate that a rate hike could be in the cards by the middle of the month.
"We had believed that the Bank would not move on rates until the June 4 decision date, but this extremely strong report clearly raises the chances of a pre-emptive move by the Bank in April ― the need for the emergency rate cuts of last fall has vanished," Doug Porter, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., said.
The March employment report also showed impressive strength in full-time job creation in Canada ― an important factor to overall economic health. During the month, 39,700 full-time jobs were created, while 48,400 part-time jobs were added.
In March, the biggest gains were seen in management, administrative and other support services. Retailers and wholesalers hired 18,000 additional workers.
The battered manufacturing sector ― the hardest hit during last year's slowdown ― added 13,400 workers in March, marking the third month of job gains in that sector.
According to the latest Statscan report, first quarter job gains in this country now stand at 170,000, the best quarterly gain since 1987.
Economists had been forecasting further strengthening of the Canadian labour force in March but few foresaw the ultimate strength of the job market.
Consensus forecasts had suggested the creation of about 10,000 jobs during the month was likely. The jobless rate, meanwhile, was seen remaining unchanged at 7.9 per cent.
"[The March report] is rip-roaringly strong," Mr. Lévesque said. "If you dig down through it ― no matter how you slice it and dice it, there aren't really any pockets of weakness in these numbers."
The improvement, he said, was particularly impressive given the fact that work-force participation also increased during the month, suggesting increased confidence among job seekers in this country.
"Had the labour force remained unchanged in March, this would have pushed the unemployment rate down to 7.3 per cent in March," he said.
Still, despite the strong numbers, Mr. Lévesque said he still expects the Bank of Canada to hold off on interest rate increases until June.
"What counts for the Bank of Canada is the economic outlook, it involves looking forward," he said. "So, if their outlook changes for future quarters changes, that may have an impact on the perceived pace at which they have to tighten," he said.
Rates in the provinces
March(%) February(%)
Newfoundland 16.6 17.8
PEI 12.4 14.3
Nova Scotia 9.7 10.3
New Brunswick 10.4 11.2
Quebec 8.9 9.3
Ontario 7.0 6.9
Manitoba 5.0 5.8
Saskatchewan 5.8 5.8
Alberta 5.0 5.1
British Columbia 9.0 8.8
Rates in the cities
March(%) February(%)
St. John's 8.6 9.1
Halifax 7.7 7.9
Saint John 8.6 8.8
Chicoutimi-Jonquière, Que. 12.3 12.0
Quebec 7.3 7.2
Trois-Rivieres 11.5 11.5
Sherbrooke 8.6 8.8
Montreal 8.9 9.2
Ottawa-Gatineau 7.5 7.1
Toronto 6.9 7.0
Hamilton 6.6 6.4
Kitchener, Ont. 6.5 6.8
London, Ont. 6.8 6.8
Oshawa, Ont. 8.3 7.6
St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 7.3 6.9
Sudbury, Ont. 10.7 10.1
Thunder Bay 7.8 8.5
Windsor 8.9 8.5
Winnipeg 5.8 5.5
Regina 5.5 5.7
Saskatoon 5.4 6.0
Calgary 4.9 4.9
Edmonton 5.0 5.1
Vancouver 8.2 8.4
Victoria 7.5 7.3
Statistics Canada also released seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average unemployment rates for major cities but warned that the figures may fluctuate widely because they are based on small statistical samples. The previous three-month moving average is in brackets
Return Copyright © 2002 The Globe and Mail
"This isn't a red-hot performance," TD Bank senior economist Marc Lévesque told globeandmail.com "It's a white-hot performance."
"It's hard to describe because you get this huge increase in employment that really blows all of the expectations out of the water in the first two months of the year and then you another huge increase in March."
During the month, a total of 88,100 jobs were created ― the best monthly figure since March, 1976. The jobless rate, meanwhile, fell to 7.7 per cent, from 7.9 per cent the month before.
The loonie rose and domestic bonds fell sharply in reaction to the report, which again showed the Canadian economy was fast out of the gate in 2002.
The Canadian dollar opened at 62.90 cents (U.S.), up 0.15 of a cent from Thursday's closing price. By 10:37 a.m. EST, it was trading at the 62.92 cent mark.
Throughout the year, this country's labour force has continued to speed past forecasts, erasing earlier predictions that the Canadian economy would be slow to recover from last year's slowdown.
Economists have been scrambling in recent weeks to revise forecasts upward amid a steady stream of stronger-than-expected economic reports.
Friday's surprisingly strong labour force survey ― the last major economic report before the Bank of Canada's April 16 decision on interest rates ― has already prompted some economists to speculate that a rate hike could be in the cards by the middle of the month.
"We had believed that the Bank would not move on rates until the June 4 decision date, but this extremely strong report clearly raises the chances of a pre-emptive move by the Bank in April ― the need for the emergency rate cuts of last fall has vanished," Doug Porter, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., said.
The March employment report also showed impressive strength in full-time job creation in Canada ― an important factor to overall economic health. During the month, 39,700 full-time jobs were created, while 48,400 part-time jobs were added.
In March, the biggest gains were seen in management, administrative and other support services. Retailers and wholesalers hired 18,000 additional workers.
The battered manufacturing sector ― the hardest hit during last year's slowdown ― added 13,400 workers in March, marking the third month of job gains in that sector.
According to the latest Statscan report, first quarter job gains in this country now stand at 170,000, the best quarterly gain since 1987.
Economists had been forecasting further strengthening of the Canadian labour force in March but few foresaw the ultimate strength of the job market.
Consensus forecasts had suggested the creation of about 10,000 jobs during the month was likely. The jobless rate, meanwhile, was seen remaining unchanged at 7.9 per cent.
"[The March report] is rip-roaringly strong," Mr. Lévesque said. "If you dig down through it ― no matter how you slice it and dice it, there aren't really any pockets of weakness in these numbers."
The improvement, he said, was particularly impressive given the fact that work-force participation also increased during the month, suggesting increased confidence among job seekers in this country.
"Had the labour force remained unchanged in March, this would have pushed the unemployment rate down to 7.3 per cent in March," he said.
Still, despite the strong numbers, Mr. Lévesque said he still expects the Bank of Canada to hold off on interest rate increases until June.
"What counts for the Bank of Canada is the economic outlook, it involves looking forward," he said. "So, if their outlook changes for future quarters changes, that may have an impact on the perceived pace at which they have to tighten," he said.
Rates in the provinces
March(%) February(%)
Newfoundland 16.6 17.8
PEI 12.4 14.3
Nova Scotia 9.7 10.3
New Brunswick 10.4 11.2
Quebec 8.9 9.3
Ontario 7.0 6.9
Manitoba 5.0 5.8
Saskatchewan 5.8 5.8
Alberta 5.0 5.1
British Columbia 9.0 8.8
Rates in the cities
March(%) February(%)
St. John's 8.6 9.1
Halifax 7.7 7.9
Saint John 8.6 8.8
Chicoutimi-Jonquière, Que. 12.3 12.0
Quebec 7.3 7.2
Trois-Rivieres 11.5 11.5
Sherbrooke 8.6 8.8
Montreal 8.9 9.2
Ottawa-Gatineau 7.5 7.1
Toronto 6.9 7.0
Hamilton 6.6 6.4
Kitchener, Ont. 6.5 6.8
London, Ont. 6.8 6.8
Oshawa, Ont. 8.3 7.6
St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 7.3 6.9
Sudbury, Ont. 10.7 10.1
Thunder Bay 7.8 8.5
Windsor 8.9 8.5
Winnipeg 5.8 5.5
Regina 5.5 5.7
Saskatoon 5.4 6.0
Calgary 4.9 4.9
Edmonton 5.0 5.1
Vancouver 8.2 8.4
Victoria 7.5 7.3
Statistics Canada also released seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average unemployment rates for major cities but warned that the figures may fluctuate widely because they are based on small statistical samples. The previous three-month moving average is in brackets
Return Copyright © 2002 The Globe and Mail
