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美国CBS“60分钟”特辑：中国楼市或是最大泡沫（双语实录）
美国“60分钟”特辑：中国楼市或是最大泡沫
http://www.sina.com.cn/ 2013年03月06日05:42 新浪播客 关闭宽屏模式
简介：
3日CBS(哥伦比亚广播公司，美国三大电视网之一)“60 Minutes"栏目在中国房地产特辑中，称中国楼市可能是历史上最大的地产泡沫。作为世界最大的地产商，万科董事长王石接受英文采访时表示：中国房价太高，楼市有泡沫，对经济有危险，如果破裂，那就是灾难。并称"我相信最高领导人拥有足够智慧来处理这事"。
以下为双语实录
解说
If trouble comes in threes, then what'll bethe next global market to melt down after the U.S. and Europe? Some are lookingnervously at China。
虽说事不过三，但是步美国和欧洲的后尘，谁最可能是第三个陷入困境的主要经济体呢？
很多人都紧张地把目光投向了中国。
解说
China has been nothing short of a financialmiracle. In just 30 years, this state-controlled economy became the world'ssecond largest, deftly managed by government policies and decrees。
中国从来都不缺乏经济奇迹，短短三十年时间，在政府灵活的政策和命令控制下，成长为世界第二大经济体。
解说
One sector the authorities concentrated onwas real estate and construction. But that may have created the largest housingbubble in human history. If you go to China, it's easy to see why there'sall the talk of a bubble. We discovered that the most populated nation on earthis building houses, districts and cities with no one in them。
监管的主要对象包括了房地产建筑业，但是这同时也可能制造了人类历史上最大的地产泡沫。如果你去中国，很容易听到关于泡沫的论调，我们发现世界上人口最多的国家，正在建设空无一人的房屋和城市。
同期
Lesley Stahl: So this is Zhengzhou. And weare on the major highway, or the major road. And it's rush hour。
这里是郑州，我们站在一条主干道上，现在应该是交通高峰时段。
Gillem Tulloch: Yeah –
是的。
Lesley Stahl: And it's almost empty。
这基本都是空的。
解说
Gillem Tulloch is a Hong Kong basedfinancial analyst who was one of the first to draw attention to the housingbubble in China. He's showing us around the new eastern district of Zhengzhou,in one of the most populated provinces in China - not that you'd know it. Wefound what they call a "ghost city" of new towers with no residents,desolate condos and vacant subdivisions uninhabited for miles, and miles, andmiles, and miles of empty apartments。
Gillem Tulloch是一名香港的金融分析师，并且是最早注意到中国地产泡沫的人之一。
他带领我们参观的郑东新区，位于中国人口最多的省份之一，和想象的不一样，我们看到了所谓的“鬼城”，新修的高楼却空无一人，荒芜的公寓和空荡荡的郊区，绵延一片，又一片，又一大片的空房子。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Why are they empty? I'veheard that they have actually been sold。
为什么这些都空着，听说这些都已经卖出了。
Gillem Tulloch: They've all been sold.They've all been sold。
都已经卖掉了，卖光了。
Lesley Stahl: They've all been sold?They're owned。
全卖掉了？有人买了？
Gillem Tulloch: Absolutely。
当然。
解说
Owned by people in China's emerging middleclass, who now have enough money to invest but few ways to do it. They're notallowed to invest abroad, banks offer paltry returns, and the stock market is arollercoaster. But 15 years ago, the government changed its policy and allowedpeople to buy their own homes and the flood gates opened。
是中国新兴的中产阶级买的，他们有足够的钱却无处投资，他们不允许投资海外，利息收入菲薄，股票市场则是过山车。但是15年前，政府放开政策，允许私人购买房产，就由此开闸。
同期
Gillem Tulloch: So what they do is theyinvest in property because property prices have always gone up by more thaninflation。
他们之所以投资地产是因为房价一直上涨并且跑过了通货膨胀。
Lesley Stahl: And they believe it will alwaysgo up?
并且他们认为还会一直涨下去？
Gillem Tulloch: Yeah, just like theybelieved in the U.S。
是的，就跟美国人之前的想法一样。
解说
Actually, property values have doubled andtripled and more -- so people in the middle class have sunk every last pennyinto buying five, even 10 apartments, fueling a building bonanza unprecedentedin human history. No nation has ever built so much so fast。
事实上，房价翻了两三倍甚至更高，所以中产阶级的榨干了也要买5套甚至10套房子，给人类历史上前所未有的建设潮提供燃料，从没有哪个国家建过这么多、这么快。
同期
Lesley Stahl: How important is real estateto the Chinese economy? Is it central?
地产业对中国经济有多重要？主导地位？
Gillem Tulloch: Yes. It's the main driverof growth and has been for the last few years. Some estimates have it as highas 20 or 30 percent of the whole economy。
是的，是过去几年和现在经济增长的主要动力。
有人估计占据了经济的两成到三成。
Lesley Stahl: But they're not just buildinghousing. They're building cities。
他们修的不仅仅是房子，还有城市。
Gillem Tulloch: Yes. That's right。
是的
Lesley Stahl: Giant cities being built withpeople not coming to live here。
修了大城市，却根本没人过来住。
Gillem Tulloch: Yes. I think they'rebuilding somewhere between 12 and 24 new cities every single year。
是的，他们每年会建成12到24个大城市。
解说
Unlike our market driven economy, in Chinait's the government that has spent some $2 trillion to get these cities built -as a way of keeping the economy growing. The assumption is "if you buildit, they'll come." But no one's coming。
和我们市场驱动的经济不同，中国的政府花费了2万亿美元来建造城市，从而保持经济的增长，他们的想法是“修好了自然会有人来住”，但根本没人来住。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Wow. This is reallycompletely, totally empty and it goes up -
这里简直是连一个人影都没有。
Gillem took us to this shopping mall that'sbeen standing vacant for three years。
Gillem把我们带到这个已经空置了三年的购物中心。
Lesley Stahl: Can I find this all overChina?
这种情况在中国是不是很普遍。
Gillem Tulloch: Yes, you can. They'vesimply built too much infrastructure too quickly。
是的，到处都是，他们过快地建设了太多的基础设施。
Lesley Stahl: But I see KFC behind you. Isee Starbucks over there. I see some other very recognizable Americanfranchises coming in here. At least they-- does that mean they have faith thatthis is going to ignite?
但是我看到你后面有肯德基啊，那边还有星巴克，还有其他美国的著名商标。
至少，这意味着他们有信心这些招牌会开业？
Gillem Tulloch: No, these are all fakesigns. Just to get potential buyers the impression of what it might look likeif they moved in。
不，这都是假招牌。
只是为了装成会开业的样子，吸引潜在的买家。
Lesley Stahl: They're not real? So I seeKFC didn't-
是假的？肯德基还没有。
Gillem Tulloch: They haven't--
没开业。
Lesley Stahl: Buy this space or rent thisspace?
没买或者租掉这家店面？
Gillem Tulloch: No, they haven't。
没，还没有。
Lesley Stahl: Starbucks?
星巴克呢？
Gillem Tulloch: No。
没有。
Lesley Stahl: They just put the sign up?
就只是挂了个招牌？
Gillem Tulloch: That's right。
对的。
解说
It's all make-believe -- non-existentsupply for non existent demand。
这都是表象。
这里根本没有店员，也没有消费者。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Look at that. Swarovski.Piaget. They're hoping for high end too。
看那边，施华洛世奇、伯爵。
他们也瞄准了高端市场啊。
Gillem Tulloch: H&M. Zara。
H&M Zara
Lesley Stahl: And it's all Potemkin。
都是面子工程啊。
Gillem Tulloch: Yeah。
是的。
解说
It's surreal and it's everywhere. Like thecity of Ordos in Mongolia built for a million peoplewho didn't show up. And no, you are not in England. You're in Thames town -- adevelopment near Shanghaibuilt like an English village。
到处都是这种超现实，比如内蒙古的鄂尔多斯 ，一百万居民从未出现过。嗯，这不是在英格兰，你是在泰晤士小镇，修建于上海周边的一个英伦小镇。
同期
Gillem Tulloch: And it was finished, Ithink, around five or six years. And it must have cost close to a billion U.S.dollars. And you'll see, it's still standing there empty。
现在已经建成了五六年了，花费了大概十亿美元，你看，现在仍然是空着的。
Lesley Stahl: Well, I heard that there issome industry there or some business, one business there。
嗯，但是我听说那边还是有人做生意的。
Gillem Tulloch: Marriage。
婚庆业。
Lesley Stahl: Wedding pictures!
婚纱摄影。
解说
And what's more uplifting than a wedding --or 10? You can see these empty developments on the edge of almost every city inChina。
还有什么能比结婚or 10?在每座城市的郊区你都能看到这样的空城。
同期
Lesley Stahl: What about the idea thatChina is urbanizing? People are flooding into cities by the hundreds ofmillions. And that this really is a smart move: build the housing toaccommodate the urbanization process。
应该怎么看待中国的城市化？数以千万计的人口涌入城市，那这样自然很合理了，建房子来迎合城市化进程。
Gillem Tulloch: Well, so people are beingmoved into the cities. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they can affordthese apartments which, you know, cost $100,000 U.S. or whatever. I mean, these arepoor people moving into the cities, so they're building the wrong sort ofapartments。
但人们涌入大城市，这并不意味着他们能买的起房子，这通常会花费十万美元甚至更多，所以，涌入城市的是穷人，他们的房子修错了种类。
解说
And what's worse, to build all thesemassive cities, they've had to tear down what was there before, clearing ricefields and displacing by some counts tens of millions of villagers. On the edgeof Zhengzhou, Gillem and I came upon a strange sight。
更糟的是，为了修筑所有这些大型城市，他们不得不拆掉此前这里的一切，扫清稻田迁移约千万村民。在郑州的郊区，我和Gille看到了奇怪的一幕。
同期
Lesley Stahl: I'm just watching whatthey're doing, these-- do you have any idea?
Stahl：我看到了他们在干什么，对这些你有什么想法？
Gillem Tulloch: I think they're trying torecycle the bricks。
Tulloch：我想他们正努力回收砖块。
解说
These villagers were salvaging what's leftof their homes, bulldozed to make room for more empty condos, alreadyencroaching in the distance。
这些村民正试图从自家房屋中捡点剩余的东西。
推土机碾过后修建的空公寓，已占据了远点的地方。
Lesley Stahl: There are all these emptyapartments over here. Can they conceivably move into those up-scale places?
Stahl：这么多空置的公寓。他们有可能住进这些高档房屋吗？
Gillem Tulloch: Most people in China live onabout less than $2 a day. Andthese apartments probably cost upwards of $50,000 or $60,000 U.S. So it'svery unlikely。
Tulloch：中国大部分的人一天生活标准大概不到2美元，而这些公寓的价格可能高达5万或6万美元，因此这是不可能的。
Lesley Stahl: What will happen to them, doyou think?
Stahl：未来他们将面临什么，你认为会怎样？
那你觉得他们前景如何？
Gillem Tulloch: I mean, they'll be forcedto relocate somewhere. I have no idea where they'll go。
Tulloch：我想他们将被迫搬到其他地方。我也不知道他们要去哪里。
解说
These are the immediate casualties of thebuilding boom. And there's another problem: analysts warn that all thisbuilding has created a bubble that could burst。
他们是建设热潮的第一波受害者。
还有另一个问题：分析师已警告由此造成可能破灭的泡沫。
同期
Lesley Stahl: So if the bubble bursts,who's left holding the bag?
Stahl: 如果泡沫破裂，谁将来承担后果呢？
Gillem Tulloch: There are multiple classesof people that are going to get wiped out by this. People who have investedthree generations worth of savings -- so grandparents, parents and children -into properties will see their savings evaporate. And then, of course, 50million construction workers who are working on all these projects around China。
Tulloch: 有几个阶层的人将因此而倒大霉。那些将三代储蓄 -- 即祖辈、父辈和孩子的钱投入房地产的人的积蓄将蒸发。当然，还有5000万在中国各地这样的建筑工地上的工人。
解说
The prognosis of a bubble about to burstisn't only coming from financial gloom-and-doomers. We heard it from the mostunlikely source。
泡沫将破裂的预言不仅来自财经界的悲观论者。从意料之外的来源我们也听到了这样的信息。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Are you the biggest homebuilder in the world?
Stahl: 你们是世界上最大的房屋建筑商吗？
Wang Shi: yes I think. Maybe。
王石：我想是吧。
Lesley Stahl: You may be?
Stahl: 你们也许是？
Wang Shi: Yes. Only the quantity, notquality。
王石：是的。仅就数量而言，而不是质量。
Wang Shi is modest, but his company, Vanke,is a $53 billion real estate empire, building more homes than anyone in China. He wasborn on the frontlines of communism, and joined the Red Army. But he secretlyread forbidden books about capitalism, so that when China liberalized its economy, herushed to the frontlines of the free market. Even he thinks today's situationis out of control。
王石是谦虚的，但他的公司万科是一个价值530亿美元的房地产帝国，拥有中国最大的房屋建筑量。
他出身于显赫的红色家庭，并参加了解放军，但他私下阅读了有关资本主义的禁书。
因此中国刚刚经济自由化，他就冲到了自由市场的第一线。
连他也认为目前形势失控了。
Lesley Stahl: Are homes in China tooexpensive today?
Stahl: 中国目前的房价是不是太高了？
Wang Shi: Yeah。
王石：是的。
Lesley Stahl: Here's a number I saw. Atypical apartment in Shanghaicosts about 45 times the average resident's annual salary。
Stahl: 这是我看到一个数据。上海一套公寓的价格是居民年薪的45倍。
Wang Shi: Even higher, even higher。
王石：可能更高，甚至更高
Lesley Stahl: What does that mean for youreconomy if it's just too expensive for the vast majority of people to buy?
Stahl: 如果买房子对大部分人来说都太贵，这对你们的经济意味着什么？
Wang Shi: I think that dangerous。
王石：我认为这是危险的。
Lesley Stahl: Dangerous。
Stahl: 危险。
Wang Shi: That's the bubble. So I thinkthat's the problem。
王石：那是泡沫。因此我认为这是个问题。
Lesley Stahl: Is there a bubble?
Stahl: 有泡沫吗？
Wang Shi: Yes, of course。
王石：是的，当然有。
Lesley Stahl: There is a bubble and theissue is will it burst or not? That's the big issue--
Stahl: 存在泡沫，关键问题是会不会破裂？
Wang Shi: Yes, if that bubble - that's adisaster。
王石：是的，有了泡沫，那是一场灾难。
Lesley Stahl: If it burst?
Stahl: 如果泡沫破裂？
Wang Shi: If it burst, that's a disaster。
王石：如果破裂，那就是灾难。
To try and prevent the disaster the Chinesegovernment decided to act. Heard of their one child policy? Since 2011, China has hadwhat amounts to a one apartment policy, where it's very hard to buy more thanone apartment in major cities. Because of this, prices plunged. The bubble wasbeing tamed. And yet, the taming was creating all kinds of unintendedconsequences。
为防止这样的灾难中国政府决定采取行动。
听说过他们的独生子女政策吗？
从2011年开始，中国已开始衍生出一套房政策，特别是在房价高昂的大城市。
因此，房价下跌，泡沫受到控制。
但是，这种控制已产生各种出乎本意的后果。
Lesley Stahl: Are many developers in debt?
Stahl: 许多开发商都负债？
Wang Shi: Yes, yes。
王石：的确如此。
Lesley Stahl: And are many stoppingdevelopment in the middle of projects 'cause they don't have the money to goforward?
Stahl: 许多开发商在项目过程中停止开发，是因为他们缺钱推进？
Wang Shi: Yeah, that's problem. That's ahuge problem。
王石：是的。这是个问题，一个严重的问题。
A problem because the slowing down ofconstruction led to a downturn in the overall economy. Unfinished projects dot China, and notjust apartment buildings。
因为建筑业放缓导致了整体经济减速。
未完成的项目遍布中国，不仅仅是公寓。
Lesley Stahl: Look at this. Can you believeit?
Stahl: 看看这个。你相信吗？
Analyst Anne Stevenson-Yang who hastraveled across China showedus a giant project all but abandoned in the port city of Tianjin with concrete skeletons as far as theeye can see. The plan is to build a new financial district to rival Manhattan including a LincolnCenter and a World Trade Center, only taller. Butit all seems frozen。
分析师杨思安曾游历中国，
向我们展示了港口城市天津一个几乎被废弃的大型项目，混凝土骨架延伸到视野的尽头。
这个计划的目标是建设一个与曼哈顿匹敌的新金融区，其中包括一个林肯中心和世贸中心，但要更高。但现在看来一切都停止了。
[Anne Stevenson-Yang: There's supposed tobe a Rockefeller Center here。
杨思安：原来这里设想要建设一个洛克菲勒中心。
Anne Stevenson-Yang: I hope they have aChristmas tree too. Skating rink.]
杨思安：我希望它们还配有一棵圣诞树，还有滑冰场。
City officials told us everything stoppedbecause developers want to build all the facades at once to match. But on theground we heard a different explanation。
当地官员告诉我们，停工是因为开发商希望同时修好所有的外墙以显得匹配。
但在现场我们听到了不同的说法。
Lesley Stahl: Workers told us that many ofthese buildings haven't had any work done on them for weeks, months, as if thedevelopers just don't have the money to go on。
Stahl: 工人告诉我们，他们已经几周几个月没有任何活干，开发商已没钱推进了。
Anne Stevenson-Yang: It's true. You seethat happen first. The migrant workers will go home. That's often the firstsign that the debt crisis is starting。
杨思安：是的，第一个兆头是外来工将返乡。
通常这是债务危机将爆发的第一个征兆。
Lesley Stahl: The debt crisis?
Stahl: 债务危机？
Anne Stevenson-Yang: Well, when you stoppaying your bills, then everything stops。
杨思安：一旦你无法支付账单，一切就停止了。
It could become a debt crisis because ofthe huge loans most of the developers took out. If they can't repay them, thewhole economy'll seize up。
这可能是一场债务危机，因为多数开发商背负巨额债务。
如果他们不能还债，整个经济将冻结。
The government's great fear is that allthis could lead to social unrest and that's not hypothetical。
政府的主要担心的是这可能导致社会动乱，这并非臆想。
Last year when home prices fell, itinfuriated all those owners of multiple dwellings, who watched the value oftheir nest eggs plummet。
去年当房价下跌时，拥有多套房屋的人都被激怒了，他们发现自己准备养老的资产缩水了。
Lesley Stahl: And there's already been somedemonstrations over real estate around the country。
Stahl: 在这个国家的多个地方已出现一些与房地产有关的示威活动。
Wang Shi: Yes。
王石：是的。
Lesley Stahl: Have you had demonstrationsagainst your showrooms anywhere? You're company?
Stahl: 你们的售楼处遭遇过抗议吗？你们的公司呢？
Wang Shi: Often!
王石：经常碰到！
So often, Wang Shi shudders to think whatwould happen if the bubble actually burst。
因此王石常常因想到泡沫破裂的后果而感到害怕。
Wang Shi: If that bubble break, that maybewho know what will happened?
王石：如果泡沫破裂，谁知道会发生什么？
Lesley Stahl: A lot of economists say thatit's too big for even this government to control。
Stahl: 许多经济学家指出，泡沫大到这个政府难以控制了。
Wang Shi: A ha. I believe that top leadershave enough smart to deal with that. I hope!
王石：啊哈。我相信最高领导人拥有足够智慧来处理这事。我希望！
Lesley Stahl: You're doing this。
Stahl: 你们正在这样做。
Wang Shi: But that's uncertain。
王石：但这存在不确定性。
Meanwhile, people who can afford it arestill buying as much real estate as they can. They're even finding ways aroundthe one apartment restriction in big cities. Can't buy in Beijing? Just cross the city line and theboom is in full swing. Flyers advertising new projects, potential buyerscrowding buses to see new construction and new owners line up to register theirnew apts. Like us in our bubble, they just don't believe the good times willever end。
与此同时，买得起人仍在购买尽可能多的房地产。
他们甚至可以找到绕开大城市一套房政策的途径。
在北京买不到房？
只要走出城市地界，热潮依然如火如荼。新楼盘广告单如雪片，潜在买家挤满巴士去看新项目，新房主排队注册登记他们的新房子。
就像处在泡沫中的我们一样，他们不相信美好的时光也会有尽头。
美国“60分钟”特辑：中国楼市或是最大泡沫
http://www.sina.com.cn/ 2013年03月06日05:42 新浪播客 关闭宽屏模式
简介：
3日CBS(哥伦比亚广播公司，美国三大电视网之一)“60 Minutes"栏目在中国房地产特辑中，称中国楼市可能是历史上最大的地产泡沫。作为世界最大的地产商，万科董事长王石接受英文采访时表示：中国房价太高，楼市有泡沫，对经济有危险，如果破裂，那就是灾难。并称"我相信最高领导人拥有足够智慧来处理这事"。
以下为双语实录
解说
If trouble comes in threes, then what'll bethe next global market to melt down after the U.S. and Europe? Some are lookingnervously at China。
虽说事不过三，但是步美国和欧洲的后尘，谁最可能是第三个陷入困境的主要经济体呢？
很多人都紧张地把目光投向了中国。
解说
China has been nothing short of a financialmiracle. In just 30 years, this state-controlled economy became the world'ssecond largest, deftly managed by government policies and decrees。
中国从来都不缺乏经济奇迹，短短三十年时间，在政府灵活的政策和命令控制下，成长为世界第二大经济体。
解说
One sector the authorities concentrated onwas real estate and construction. But that may have created the largest housingbubble in human history. If you go to China, it's easy to see why there'sall the talk of a bubble. We discovered that the most populated nation on earthis building houses, districts and cities with no one in them。
监管的主要对象包括了房地产建筑业，但是这同时也可能制造了人类历史上最大的地产泡沫。如果你去中国，很容易听到关于泡沫的论调，我们发现世界上人口最多的国家，正在建设空无一人的房屋和城市。
同期
Lesley Stahl: So this is Zhengzhou. And weare on the major highway, or the major road. And it's rush hour。
这里是郑州，我们站在一条主干道上，现在应该是交通高峰时段。
Gillem Tulloch: Yeah –
是的。
Lesley Stahl: And it's almost empty。
这基本都是空的。
解说
Gillem Tulloch is a Hong Kong basedfinancial analyst who was one of the first to draw attention to the housingbubble in China. He's showing us around the new eastern district of Zhengzhou,in one of the most populated provinces in China - not that you'd know it. Wefound what they call a "ghost city" of new towers with no residents,desolate condos and vacant subdivisions uninhabited for miles, and miles, andmiles, and miles of empty apartments。
Gillem Tulloch是一名香港的金融分析师，并且是最早注意到中国地产泡沫的人之一。
他带领我们参观的郑东新区，位于中国人口最多的省份之一，和想象的不一样，我们看到了所谓的“鬼城”，新修的高楼却空无一人，荒芜的公寓和空荡荡的郊区，绵延一片，又一片，又一大片的空房子。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Why are they empty? I'veheard that they have actually been sold。
为什么这些都空着，听说这些都已经卖出了。
Gillem Tulloch: They've all been sold.They've all been sold。
都已经卖掉了，卖光了。
Lesley Stahl: They've all been sold?They're owned。
全卖掉了？有人买了？
Gillem Tulloch: Absolutely。
当然。
解说
Owned by people in China's emerging middleclass, who now have enough money to invest but few ways to do it. They're notallowed to invest abroad, banks offer paltry returns, and the stock market is arollercoaster. But 15 years ago, the government changed its policy and allowedpeople to buy their own homes and the flood gates opened。
是中国新兴的中产阶级买的，他们有足够的钱却无处投资，他们不允许投资海外，利息收入菲薄，股票市场则是过山车。但是15年前，政府放开政策，允许私人购买房产，就由此开闸。
同期
Gillem Tulloch: So what they do is theyinvest in property because property prices have always gone up by more thaninflation。
他们之所以投资地产是因为房价一直上涨并且跑过了通货膨胀。
Lesley Stahl: And they believe it will alwaysgo up?
并且他们认为还会一直涨下去？
Gillem Tulloch: Yeah, just like theybelieved in the U.S。
是的，就跟美国人之前的想法一样。
解说
Actually, property values have doubled andtripled and more -- so people in the middle class have sunk every last pennyinto buying five, even 10 apartments, fueling a building bonanza unprecedentedin human history. No nation has ever built so much so fast。
事实上，房价翻了两三倍甚至更高，所以中产阶级的榨干了也要买5套甚至10套房子，给人类历史上前所未有的建设潮提供燃料，从没有哪个国家建过这么多、这么快。
同期
Lesley Stahl: How important is real estateto the Chinese economy? Is it central?
地产业对中国经济有多重要？主导地位？
Gillem Tulloch: Yes. It's the main driverof growth and has been for the last few years. Some estimates have it as highas 20 or 30 percent of the whole economy。
是的，是过去几年和现在经济增长的主要动力。
有人估计占据了经济的两成到三成。
Lesley Stahl: But they're not just buildinghousing. They're building cities。
他们修的不仅仅是房子，还有城市。
Gillem Tulloch: Yes. That's right。
是的
Lesley Stahl: Giant cities being built withpeople not coming to live here。
修了大城市，却根本没人过来住。
Gillem Tulloch: Yes. I think they'rebuilding somewhere between 12 and 24 new cities every single year。
是的，他们每年会建成12到24个大城市。
解说
Unlike our market driven economy, in Chinait's the government that has spent some $2 trillion to get these cities built -as a way of keeping the economy growing. The assumption is "if you buildit, they'll come." But no one's coming。
和我们市场驱动的经济不同，中国的政府花费了2万亿美元来建造城市，从而保持经济的增长，他们的想法是“修好了自然会有人来住”，但根本没人来住。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Wow. This is reallycompletely, totally empty and it goes up -
这里简直是连一个人影都没有。
Gillem took us to this shopping mall that'sbeen standing vacant for three years。
Gillem把我们带到这个已经空置了三年的购物中心。
Lesley Stahl: Can I find this all overChina?
这种情况在中国是不是很普遍。
Gillem Tulloch: Yes, you can. They'vesimply built too much infrastructure too quickly。
是的，到处都是，他们过快地建设了太多的基础设施。
Lesley Stahl: But I see KFC behind you. Isee Starbucks over there. I see some other very recognizable Americanfranchises coming in here. At least they-- does that mean they have faith thatthis is going to ignite?
但是我看到你后面有肯德基啊，那边还有星巴克，还有其他美国的著名商标。
至少，这意味着他们有信心这些招牌会开业？
Gillem Tulloch: No, these are all fakesigns. Just to get potential buyers the impression of what it might look likeif they moved in。
不，这都是假招牌。
只是为了装成会开业的样子，吸引潜在的买家。
Lesley Stahl: They're not real? So I seeKFC didn't-
是假的？肯德基还没有。
Gillem Tulloch: They haven't--
没开业。
Lesley Stahl: Buy this space or rent thisspace?
没买或者租掉这家店面？
Gillem Tulloch: No, they haven't。
没，还没有。
Lesley Stahl: Starbucks?
星巴克呢？
Gillem Tulloch: No。
没有。
Lesley Stahl: They just put the sign up?
就只是挂了个招牌？
Gillem Tulloch: That's right。
对的。
解说
It's all make-believe -- non-existentsupply for non existent demand。
这都是表象。
这里根本没有店员，也没有消费者。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Look at that. Swarovski.Piaget. They're hoping for high end too。
看那边，施华洛世奇、伯爵。
他们也瞄准了高端市场啊。
Gillem Tulloch: H&M. Zara。
H&M Zara
Lesley Stahl: And it's all Potemkin。
都是面子工程啊。
Gillem Tulloch: Yeah。
是的。
解说
It's surreal and it's everywhere. Like thecity of Ordos in Mongolia built for a million peoplewho didn't show up. And no, you are not in England. You're in Thames town -- adevelopment near Shanghaibuilt like an English village。
到处都是这种超现实，比如内蒙古的鄂尔多斯 ，一百万居民从未出现过。嗯，这不是在英格兰，你是在泰晤士小镇，修建于上海周边的一个英伦小镇。
同期
Gillem Tulloch: And it was finished, Ithink, around five or six years. And it must have cost close to a billion U.S.dollars. And you'll see, it's still standing there empty。
现在已经建成了五六年了，花费了大概十亿美元，你看，现在仍然是空着的。
Lesley Stahl: Well, I heard that there issome industry there or some business, one business there。
嗯，但是我听说那边还是有人做生意的。
Gillem Tulloch: Marriage。
婚庆业。
Lesley Stahl: Wedding pictures!
婚纱摄影。
解说
And what's more uplifting than a wedding --or 10? You can see these empty developments on the edge of almost every city inChina。
还有什么能比结婚or 10?在每座城市的郊区你都能看到这样的空城。
同期
Lesley Stahl: What about the idea thatChina is urbanizing? People are flooding into cities by the hundreds ofmillions. And that this really is a smart move: build the housing toaccommodate the urbanization process。
应该怎么看待中国的城市化？数以千万计的人口涌入城市，那这样自然很合理了，建房子来迎合城市化进程。
Gillem Tulloch: Well, so people are beingmoved into the cities. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they can affordthese apartments which, you know, cost $100,000 U.S. or whatever. I mean, these arepoor people moving into the cities, so they're building the wrong sort ofapartments。
但人们涌入大城市，这并不意味着他们能买的起房子，这通常会花费十万美元甚至更多，所以，涌入城市的是穷人，他们的房子修错了种类。
解说
And what's worse, to build all thesemassive cities, they've had to tear down what was there before, clearing ricefields and displacing by some counts tens of millions of villagers. On the edgeof Zhengzhou, Gillem and I came upon a strange sight。
更糟的是，为了修筑所有这些大型城市，他们不得不拆掉此前这里的一切，扫清稻田迁移约千万村民。在郑州的郊区，我和Gille看到了奇怪的一幕。
同期
Lesley Stahl: I'm just watching whatthey're doing, these-- do you have any idea?
Stahl：我看到了他们在干什么，对这些你有什么想法？
Gillem Tulloch: I think they're trying torecycle the bricks。
Tulloch：我想他们正努力回收砖块。
解说
These villagers were salvaging what's leftof their homes, bulldozed to make room for more empty condos, alreadyencroaching in the distance。
这些村民正试图从自家房屋中捡点剩余的东西。
推土机碾过后修建的空公寓，已占据了远点的地方。
Lesley Stahl: There are all these emptyapartments over here. Can they conceivably move into those up-scale places?
Stahl：这么多空置的公寓。他们有可能住进这些高档房屋吗？
Gillem Tulloch: Most people in China live onabout less than $2 a day. Andthese apartments probably cost upwards of $50,000 or $60,000 U.S. So it'svery unlikely。
Tulloch：中国大部分的人一天生活标准大概不到2美元，而这些公寓的价格可能高达5万或6万美元，因此这是不可能的。
Lesley Stahl: What will happen to them, doyou think?
Stahl：未来他们将面临什么，你认为会怎样？
那你觉得他们前景如何？
Gillem Tulloch: I mean, they'll be forcedto relocate somewhere. I have no idea where they'll go。
Tulloch：我想他们将被迫搬到其他地方。我也不知道他们要去哪里。
解说
These are the immediate casualties of thebuilding boom. And there's another problem: analysts warn that all thisbuilding has created a bubble that could burst。
他们是建设热潮的第一波受害者。
还有另一个问题：分析师已警告由此造成可能破灭的泡沫。
同期
Lesley Stahl: So if the bubble bursts,who's left holding the bag?
Stahl: 如果泡沫破裂，谁将来承担后果呢？
Gillem Tulloch: There are multiple classesof people that are going to get wiped out by this. People who have investedthree generations worth of savings -- so grandparents, parents and children -into properties will see their savings evaporate. And then, of course, 50million construction workers who are working on all these projects around China。
Tulloch: 有几个阶层的人将因此而倒大霉。那些将三代储蓄 -- 即祖辈、父辈和孩子的钱投入房地产的人的积蓄将蒸发。当然，还有5000万在中国各地这样的建筑工地上的工人。
解说
The prognosis of a bubble about to burstisn't only coming from financial gloom-and-doomers. We heard it from the mostunlikely source。
泡沫将破裂的预言不仅来自财经界的悲观论者。从意料之外的来源我们也听到了这样的信息。
同期
Lesley Stahl: Are you the biggest homebuilder in the world?
Stahl: 你们是世界上最大的房屋建筑商吗？
Wang Shi: yes I think. Maybe。
王石：我想是吧。
Lesley Stahl: You may be?
Stahl: 你们也许是？
Wang Shi: Yes. Only the quantity, notquality。
王石：是的。仅就数量而言，而不是质量。
Wang Shi is modest, but his company, Vanke,is a $53 billion real estate empire, building more homes than anyone in China. He wasborn on the frontlines of communism, and joined the Red Army. But he secretlyread forbidden books about capitalism, so that when China liberalized its economy, herushed to the frontlines of the free market. Even he thinks today's situationis out of control。
王石是谦虚的，但他的公司万科是一个价值530亿美元的房地产帝国，拥有中国最大的房屋建筑量。
他出身于显赫的红色家庭，并参加了解放军，但他私下阅读了有关资本主义的禁书。
因此中国刚刚经济自由化，他就冲到了自由市场的第一线。
连他也认为目前形势失控了。
Lesley Stahl: Are homes in China tooexpensive today?
Stahl: 中国目前的房价是不是太高了？
Wang Shi: Yeah。
王石：是的。
Lesley Stahl: Here's a number I saw. Atypical apartment in Shanghaicosts about 45 times the average resident's annual salary。
Stahl: 这是我看到一个数据。上海一套公寓的价格是居民年薪的45倍。
Wang Shi: Even higher, even higher。
王石：可能更高，甚至更高
Lesley Stahl: What does that mean for youreconomy if it's just too expensive for the vast majority of people to buy?
Stahl: 如果买房子对大部分人来说都太贵，这对你们的经济意味着什么？
Wang Shi: I think that dangerous。
王石：我认为这是危险的。
Lesley Stahl: Dangerous。
Stahl: 危险。
Wang Shi: That's the bubble. So I thinkthat's the problem。
王石：那是泡沫。因此我认为这是个问题。
Lesley Stahl: Is there a bubble?
Stahl: 有泡沫吗？
Wang Shi: Yes, of course。
王石：是的，当然有。
Lesley Stahl: There is a bubble and theissue is will it burst or not? That's the big issue--
Stahl: 存在泡沫，关键问题是会不会破裂？
Wang Shi: Yes, if that bubble - that's adisaster。
王石：是的，有了泡沫，那是一场灾难。
Lesley Stahl: If it burst?
Stahl: 如果泡沫破裂？
Wang Shi: If it burst, that's a disaster。
王石：如果破裂，那就是灾难。
To try and prevent the disaster the Chinesegovernment decided to act. Heard of their one child policy? Since 2011, China has hadwhat amounts to a one apartment policy, where it's very hard to buy more thanone apartment in major cities. Because of this, prices plunged. The bubble wasbeing tamed. And yet, the taming was creating all kinds of unintendedconsequences。
为防止这样的灾难中国政府决定采取行动。
听说过他们的独生子女政策吗？
从2011年开始，中国已开始衍生出一套房政策，特别是在房价高昂的大城市。
因此，房价下跌，泡沫受到控制。
但是，这种控制已产生各种出乎本意的后果。
Lesley Stahl: Are many developers in debt?
Stahl: 许多开发商都负债？
Wang Shi: Yes, yes。
王石：的确如此。
Lesley Stahl: And are many stoppingdevelopment in the middle of projects 'cause they don't have the money to goforward?
Stahl: 许多开发商在项目过程中停止开发，是因为他们缺钱推进？
Wang Shi: Yeah, that's problem. That's ahuge problem。
王石：是的。这是个问题，一个严重的问题。
A problem because the slowing down ofconstruction led to a downturn in the overall economy. Unfinished projects dot China, and notjust apartment buildings。
因为建筑业放缓导致了整体经济减速。
未完成的项目遍布中国，不仅仅是公寓。
Lesley Stahl: Look at this. Can you believeit?
Stahl: 看看这个。你相信吗？
Analyst Anne Stevenson-Yang who hastraveled across China showedus a giant project all but abandoned in the port city of Tianjin with concrete skeletons as far as theeye can see. The plan is to build a new financial district to rival Manhattan including a LincolnCenter and a World Trade Center, only taller. Butit all seems frozen。
分析师杨思安曾游历中国，
向我们展示了港口城市天津一个几乎被废弃的大型项目，混凝土骨架延伸到视野的尽头。
这个计划的目标是建设一个与曼哈顿匹敌的新金融区，其中包括一个林肯中心和世贸中心，但要更高。但现在看来一切都停止了。
[Anne Stevenson-Yang: There's supposed tobe a Rockefeller Center here。
杨思安：原来这里设想要建设一个洛克菲勒中心。
Anne Stevenson-Yang: I hope they have aChristmas tree too. Skating rink.]
杨思安：我希望它们还配有一棵圣诞树，还有滑冰场。
City officials told us everything stoppedbecause developers want to build all the facades at once to match. But on theground we heard a different explanation。
当地官员告诉我们，停工是因为开发商希望同时修好所有的外墙以显得匹配。
但在现场我们听到了不同的说法。
Lesley Stahl: Workers told us that many ofthese buildings haven't had any work done on them for weeks, months, as if thedevelopers just don't have the money to go on。
Stahl: 工人告诉我们，他们已经几周几个月没有任何活干，开发商已没钱推进了。
Anne Stevenson-Yang: It's true. You seethat happen first. The migrant workers will go home. That's often the firstsign that the debt crisis is starting。
杨思安：是的，第一个兆头是外来工将返乡。
通常这是债务危机将爆发的第一个征兆。
Lesley Stahl: The debt crisis?
Stahl: 债务危机？
Anne Stevenson-Yang: Well, when you stoppaying your bills, then everything stops。
杨思安：一旦你无法支付账单，一切就停止了。
It could become a debt crisis because ofthe huge loans most of the developers took out. If they can't repay them, thewhole economy'll seize up。
这可能是一场债务危机，因为多数开发商背负巨额债务。
如果他们不能还债，整个经济将冻结。
The government's great fear is that allthis could lead to social unrest and that's not hypothetical。
政府的主要担心的是这可能导致社会动乱，这并非臆想。
Last year when home prices fell, itinfuriated all those owners of multiple dwellings, who watched the value oftheir nest eggs plummet。
去年当房价下跌时，拥有多套房屋的人都被激怒了，他们发现自己准备养老的资产缩水了。
Lesley Stahl: And there's already been somedemonstrations over real estate around the country。
Stahl: 在这个国家的多个地方已出现一些与房地产有关的示威活动。
Wang Shi: Yes。
王石：是的。
Lesley Stahl: Have you had demonstrationsagainst your showrooms anywhere? You're company?
Stahl: 你们的售楼处遭遇过抗议吗？你们的公司呢？
Wang Shi: Often!
王石：经常碰到！
So often, Wang Shi shudders to think whatwould happen if the bubble actually burst。
因此王石常常因想到泡沫破裂的后果而感到害怕。
Wang Shi: If that bubble break, that maybewho know what will happened?
王石：如果泡沫破裂，谁知道会发生什么？
Lesley Stahl: A lot of economists say thatit's too big for even this government to control。
Stahl: 许多经济学家指出，泡沫大到这个政府难以控制了。
Wang Shi: A ha. I believe that top leadershave enough smart to deal with that. I hope!
王石：啊哈。我相信最高领导人拥有足够智慧来处理这事。我希望！
Lesley Stahl: You're doing this。
Stahl: 你们正在这样做。
Wang Shi: But that's uncertain。
王石：但这存在不确定性。
Meanwhile, people who can afford it arestill buying as much real estate as they can. They're even finding ways aroundthe one apartment restriction in big cities. Can't buy in Beijing? Just cross the city line and theboom is in full swing. Flyers advertising new projects, potential buyerscrowding buses to see new construction and new owners line up to register theirnew apts. Like us in our bubble, they just don't believe the good times willever end。
与此同时，买得起人仍在购买尽可能多的房地产。
他们甚至可以找到绕开大城市一套房政策的途径。
在北京买不到房？
只要走出城市地界，热潮依然如火如荼。新楼盘广告单如雪片，潜在买家挤满巴士去看新项目，新房主排队注册登记他们的新房子。
就像处在泡沫中的我们一样，他们不相信美好的时光也会有尽头。
