Kerry Brown:中共丧失了一位当今最有才能的政治人物

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Kerry Brown:中共丧失了一位当今最有才能的政治人物

  • 作者: 澳洲媒体(齐.池.洁.茶) [216094:2380], 07:14:01 09/23/2013:
    - 论剑谈棋 豪杰尽聚 - 华岳论坛 - http://washeng.net/



    中共丧失了一位当今最有才能的政治人物


    撰稿:凯瑞•布朗(Kerry Brown)悉尼大学中国研究中心主任、教授


    随着薄熙来的倒台,中共丧失了一个当今最有才能的政治人物。

    这有点像1997年前夕,大选胜券在握的工党试图排挤掉布莱尔;也有点像1992年时的美国民主党试图抛弃克林顿。

    薄熙来的魅力和他天生的政治资本让他与众不同。

    倘若他是民主社会的一名政客,他甚至可能不受他妻子和他助手王立军罪行的影响。一个残酷的现实是:在八月份济南中院的庭审中,没有一个证据能将他直接与犯罪联系上,他最多是一个不忠行为的受害者。

    薄熙来的倒台对中共高层的政敌来说是个好消息,尽管出现令人不安的事件和意外,他们最终得以更容易地进行去年底的权力交接。

    倘若薄不倒台,很难将他从新领导层中排挤出去;但同时,要想很好地安排他也是个难题。有人曾揣测他会担任全国人大常委会委员长、或者是政协主席,这都会让他利用他的天然优势调动民意——要想排挤他真的会很难。

    对薄熙来谈论最多的还是他在重庆的所作所为,包括“唱红打黑”,很多人对此表示反感。


    首先是涉及滥用司法以及使用暴力。但支持者说,薄熙来针对的是蛇头、黑帮和犯罪团伙,这帮人本身就是施暴者。

    薄熙来愿意挑战他们、维护党的权威,至少是朝着法制和有序社会迈进一步,至少人们知道有一个做主的——党领导的政府,而不是各式各样的非法组织。

    薄熙来也是他这一代人当中仅有的既拥有显赫权力,又真正接触人民、和人民直接对话的人。

    这是他受欢迎的基础,也让人们从济南的庭审中看到了这些。

    不大可能会有大批的人涌上街头声援薄熙来,但中共也不可能将他悄无声息地“埋葬”。

    用刑罚的方式剥夺薄熙来复出的机会,似乎止住民心所向

    薄熙来已被判刑,尽管邓 小 平曾三次复出,但薄熙来重返政坛几无可能。

    如果现行体制继续,他的命运与陈 希 同和陈 良 宇类似,他也会退出公众视野,在阴影下消失。

    但他的遗产不会轻易消失,有关他权力沉浮的质疑也不会消失,因为他有强大的民意支持度。

    对像薄这样以独特方式从事、构成政治威胁的人,中共也需要找到另外一种应对的方式。

    以这种方式钳制薄熙来对中共来说不是长久之计,只会加深其人们对其残酷和阴谋的印象,而不是一个与时俱进的政党形象。

    用不公正的司法手段,审不倒薄熙来

    宣判薄熙来并没有带来司法公正,仍有很多问题需要回答。

    一个明显但谁都不愿捅破的是:薄熙来案从头至尾都是基于政治考虑,并非刑事犯罪。

    几乎可以肯定对薄的宣判得到政治局常委的批准,这一切都在他们的密切掌控之中。

    对薄熙来的真正宣判是去年三月的全国人大会议上,前总理温 家 宝的表态决定了薄熙来的命运。

    薄熙来最后的告别对中国和共产党的政治生活来说是一个巨大损失,或许多年以后共产党下台时,会认真反思他们的愚蠢,并因此后悔不已,共产党帮了谁的忙呢,也许他们再在根本就不会思考,习 近 平正忙着稳定自己的权力。
 
逆向淘汰的必然结果。
 
不知道此帖原文出自何处。

搜到下面这篇文章。

After Bo, China's political dysfunction just as opaque
Kerry Brown says by presenting the Bo Xilai saga as a sorry tale of one family's crime, China's political elders prevented light being shone onthe opaque dealings of the Communist elite
Kerry Brown Tuesday, 24 September, 2013

Bo Xilai has been tried, found guilty and sentenced to life in prison. That, in the normal order of things, should be the end of the matter. Barring profound change in the political habits of the Communist Party in dealing with those once in power who are felled, Bo will spend the rest of his life silenced. Maybe in the future, the world will be rewarded with his own words smuggled out as they were for Zhao Ziyang , giving his full, final account of what happened. But his ability to directly influence Chinese politics is over.

What do we know now more than we did when the Bo saga started, over 18 months ago? We already knew that elite Chinese politics was a highly tribal, often brutal and extremely competitive world, in which the stakes were high. We knew that the outcome of trials that involved highly prominent figures like Bo were handled almost wholly according to political considerations, and that whatever judicial process pursued would be tightly managed and the outcome dubious. We knew Bo was regarded with some trepidation by his colleagues and that he had limited support in the upper echelons of party leadership.

The events of these past few months do nothing to change any of these issues. Despite the excitement of the trial last month and the drama around Bo's affair, in the end it merely reinforces issues which were already known. The Chinese elite act according to rules they have themselves devised, and the only red line seems to be not to alienate too many of those in the same privileged club. Bo's real problem was probably this lack of true support among those around him.

One of the new great "what ifs" of Chinese politics now is what would have happened had Gu Kailai never been involved in the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood in November 2011. Would Bo then have enjoyed unhindered passage into the Politburo Standing Committee and perhaps even been made one of the key figures? The consensus before his fall was that Bo was too important a player to be left outside. Would other incidents have been manufactured to ensure that he did not finally make it? Would his inclusion have caused a true split in the leadership? Would it have pitted the elite deciders against each other at a sensitive and crucial moment in the Communist Party's leadership transition?

We will never know the answer to these questions now. All we can deduce from the trial and sentencing is that the gravest crimes in modern China are political. Bo shamed the party, the main accusation seemed to go, and fatally did not control the key people around him. Wang Lijun and Gu, for separate reasons, did not come off well in the trial process. Wang had to suffer Bo's scathing attack, and was up against his own unsavoury and bullying prior record. Gu was not even present in the court, and was easily dismissed as malleable and unstable. All the key narratives of a dysfunctional dynastic family were well in place, and harked back to the sort of shenanigans under Mao Zedong four decades before.

What was less explored during Bo's extended hearing was precisely how he was connected to the Heywood affair, beyond his link to Gu and Wang. No evidence was presented of his collusion, at least from the tightly edited transcripts issued from Jinan during the hearing. Nor was it clear precisely how he had "abused power" beyond proving himself unable to keep tabs on the business and personal affairs of people close to him.

For his peers, therefore, Bo was a poor judge of character. The most vulnerable link any Chinese leader can have in such a system full of tribal loyalties and clan interests is the family one, and the ability to at least control this up to a point is a key skill of the modern Chinese leader. Bo evidently failed there, at least according to this trial.

His treatment raises questions, however, that will not go away even after he has been sentenced. The first was the nature of his corruption, and precisely why the party authorities had not known or not acted on his supposed larceny from over a decade ago, but managed in fact to allow him further promotion. Does this not raise questions about the very ways in which the party organisation department and others assess and keep tabs on leaders?

Then there is the interesting issue of what Bo himself never said in his defence. He performed well, dealing only with the specific claims around his wife, his family and his underlings. But he never questioned the right of the party to treat him in this way, or raised any of the issues of his treatment being different because of who he was and who he had alienated. He never breathed a word in his defence about how the party had expelled him and damned him because of his threat to some of the key political elites, even though this would have been a valid issue to raise. According to them, he was there to answer criminal charges, not for any political reason, and it was on these grounds that he defended himself.

Bo showed himself to the very end a faithful and loyal servant of the party, the same party that his father had suffered so deeply to bring to power and maintain there, and at the hands of which he had seen his own mother die and himself consigned to prison over four decades before, during the Cultural Revolution. This gave Bo a certain pathos and tragic dignity in his final appearance, but it also means that his fall and demise are perhaps less meaningful than might appear. They do not challenge the parameters of the way the party behaves and its exercise on power. They just reinforce the impression that this is an organisation that is ruthless, and, in the case of Bo, heartless.

No one won in Jinan, and the Communist Party has just consigned the most gifted politician of his generation, and someone who showed evidence of being able to bring about transformative change, to life in prison.

Kerry Brown is executive director of the China Studies Centre and professor of Chinese politics at the University of Sydney
 
现在是后薄时代
是一个无聊的时代
 
找到原文了。
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-24019450
Will China's leaders regret Bo Xilai's fall?
By Kerry Brown Professor of Chinese politics, University of Sydney

With Bo Xilai's demise, the Communist Party of China has lost the most talented politician of his generation.

It is a bit like the UK Labour Party dismissing Tony Blair just before 1997 when it stood to win the election that year, or the Democrats in the US in 1992 dumping Bill Clinton.

Bo's charisma and his natural political gifts put him in the same league as these figures.

And had he been a politician in a democracy, it is even possible that he could have survived the misdeeds of his wife and his closest ally Wang Lijun, because the brute fact is that in the courtroom in Jinan where he was tried in August not a shred of evidence connected him to their crimes.

The worse that could be said of him was that he was the victim of misguided loyalty.

Bo's fall was good news to his many enemies in the Communist Party elite and made their lives, despite its destabilising drama and surprise, in the end much easier in managing the horse-trading around the leadership transition in late 2012.

Bo would have been a hard person to leave out of the new line-up, but also a very tough person to place well. Some speculated that he could be made the head of the National People's Congress, or of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. Both would have offered natural power bases for him to mobilise public opinion. It would have been very hard to sideline him.

The campaigns that Bo was most publicly associated with while in Chongqing - the clampdown on the mafia and the red song campaigns - were regarded with distaste by many commentators.

The first certainly involved the delivery of rough justice and was associated with a lot of brutality. But defenders of Bo might argue that he was pitting himself against some of the least attractive, most venal members of contemporary Chinese society - snakeheads, mafia bosses and criminal leaders, who were not slouches when it came to dolling out violence themselves.

The fact that Bo was willing to take them on and stand up for the authority of the party was at least a step closer to greater rule of law and predictability in society. At least people could be assured there was only one entity bossing them about - the government led by the party - rather than multiple illegal ones.

Bo was also the only leader of his generation to truly try to reach across from the privileged elite zone of power in modern China and speak directly to people.

That was the basis of his popularity, and perhaps the reason for why his treatment in Jinan at least gave him some voice and tried to paint him as at the heart of a highly dysfunctional and unsavoury family.

It was always unlikely that people would take to the streets in support of Bo in sufficient numbers to threaten the party. But nor could they bury him without a voice, and their mode of attack- the venality and uncontrolled behaviour of his wife and security chief Wang Lijun - were narrow but effective modes of attack.

Unlikely return
Bo has been sentenced, and, despite the great exception of Deng Xiaoping who came back from the political graveyard three times, he is highly unlikely to ever emerge again as a leader.

If the current system is maintained (and the likelihood is that at least in the short to medium term it will be) then Bo will enjoy the same fate as other high-level felled figures such as the late Beijing Mayor Chen Xitong, who was toppled in the late 1990s, and Party Secretary of Shanghai Cheng Liangyu, from the mid 2000s.

Both of these disappeared into silence and obscurity. Bo will no doubt join them.

But his legacy will not be so easy to dispel, nor the questions that he raised both while in power and also when he fell.

Those politicians that remain have to contemplate mobilising public opinion in a more imaginative way than has been done so far.

They have to try, as Bo, to reach out to people more directly, and appeal to their emotions and aspirations in ways that he evidently did, at least while in Liaoning and then Chongqing.

And there has to be a different way to deal with figures like Bo, who pose a political threat through their difference to everyone else.

To have those people brought down as Bo was is not sustainable for the party, and in the end only reinforces its image as a brutal, intrigue-led cabal rather than a modernising political force.

No justice?
Justice in the end was not served neither in Jinan nor in Bo's sentencing.

Too many questions remain about what precisely the connection between his wife and her claimed murder of the British businessman Heywood was, and about the real nature of his abuse of power and corruption.

The elephant lurking in the room throughout this process has been the fact - known to everyone but clearly expressed by none - that Bo's treatment was, from beginning to end, based on political rather than criminal issues.

His sentence was almost certainly sanctioned by the Standing Committee Politburo, and his treatment closely managed by them.

His real sentence was delivered by Wen Jiabao, then Premier, at the National People's Congress in March 2012, whose devastating indirect attack on Bo sealed his fate. From that moment, Bo was a dead man walking.

But his final departure is a huge loss for political life in China, and for the party, no matter what sheen it tries to put on things. And it may well be one that, in the years ahead, it comes to rue and regret.

Kerry Brown is professor of Chinese politics at the University of Sydney, team leader of the Europe China Research and Advice Network (ECRAN) funded by the European Union, and an Associate Fellow of the Asia Programme at Chatham House.
 
真是可惜了!薄的存在也许能加快中国的民主化进程。
 
Kerry Brown:中共丧失了一位当今最有才能的政治人物

  • 作者: 澳洲媒体(齐.池.洁.茶) [216094:2380], 07:14:01 09/23/2013:
    - 论剑谈棋 豪杰尽聚 - 华岳论坛 - http://washeng.net/
    中共丧失了一位当今最有才能的政治人物
    撰稿:凯瑞•布朗(Kerry Brown)悉尼大学中国研究中心主任、教授
    ...
    薄熙来最后的告别对中国和共产党的政治生活来说是一个巨大损失,或许多年以后共产党下台时,会认真反思他们的愚蠢,并因此后悔不已,共产党帮了谁的忙呢,也许他们再在根本就不会思考,习 近 平正忙着稳定自己的权力。

原文是:
But his final departure is a huge loss for political life in China, and for the party, no matter what sheen it tries to put on things. And it may well be one that, in the years ahead, it comes to rue and regret.

下面黑体字部分,是谁的私货?:rolleyes::p

薄熙来最后的告别对中国和共产党的政治生活来说是一个巨大损失,或许多年以后共产党下台时,会认真反思他们的愚蠢,并因此后悔不已,共产党帮了谁的忙呢,也许他们再在根本就不会思考,习 近 平正忙着稳定自己的权力。
 
真是可惜了!薄的存在也许能加快中国的民主化进程。
薄的存在未必能加快中国的民主化进程。但是,薄是个人才,的确可惜了。
 
薄的存在未必能加快中国的民主化进程。但是,薄是个人才,的确可惜了。


管不好老婆, 管不好下属, 缺乏政治智慧。只有唱红打黑1个亮点。
 
管不好老婆, 管不好下属, 缺乏政治智慧。只有唱红打黑1个亮点。
薄在政治上幼稚。他在重庆折腾那几年,是在为自己挖掘坟墓。
唱红打黑是他的1个污点。
 
但是他不甘于平庸啊
他过分张扬,锋芒毕露,目中无人,在那个官场,他有今天不奇怪。
 
最后编辑:
管不好老婆, 管不好下属, 缺乏政治智慧。只有唱红打黑1个亮点。
还有:管不好孩子。
 
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