Time to buy JDSU?

[arealchinese]

JDS Uniphase had about $1/share cash (no debt) with sales of merely $161M for the last Q. Everyone was expecting that. The worst came from its forecast of another sequential 10% drop in sales for the current Q, i.e. $145M, which surprised almost everyone. Today's 12% drop much reflected that.

Analysts rushed out to downgrade it. ML rated it "Sell" this morning.

Regardless of those bad things, I view this selloff as an opportunity to buy. Why?

The current revenue of JDS consists of mainly thin-film (non-telecom) sales (53%) and telecom opticals (47%). No body really counts on non-telecom sales in the future (although it is important in the near term). It's also true that JDSU is an extremely expensive stock by any accounting standard. People are betting on future expansion (more precisely recovery) of telecom related sales. From waht I know, its telecom related sales reached a "stable" stage. NT's report soemhow supported that idea (10% sequential growth in optics).

JDS also indicated that the decline in sales for the current Q is due to non-telecom sales drop. Internally, managers also confirmed optics business "stabilized".

Optical communication sooner or later will replace copper wires. This is the future of the world, which will provide the hard core for the internet revolution. The advancement of wireless will also stimulate the implementation of optical networks from long haul to metro to entreprise and to home (10 year from now?).

If you are a long term investor with patience, it is probably a good time to take some position in JDU/T or JDSU/Q.

Again, I don't recommend you to feed up yourself in one shot and right today. I believe JDSU will not see any meaningful surge any time soon. It may go further lower or stay in the range for quite a while (2 months?). So will the general market be. Sept. and October are usually good time to buy stocks. Hope this year is not exceptional.

Please comment!

 

[花花鸭子]

it will still drop

 

[jzhang77]

找个在上升通道内的股票, 不更好吗???
至少不用太担惊受怕.

 

[yohu]

可以考虑！

 

[buddy]

Your view of the stock market is very professional. I learnt a lot from your comments. Where did you get so much inforamtion such as company's cash flow, cash burning rate and so on?

By the way, any comments on CHU-N?

最初由 arealchinese 发布
JDS Uniphase had about $1/share cash (no debt) with sales of merely $161M for the last Q. Everyone was expecting that. The worst came from its forecast of another sequential 10% drop in sales for the current Q, i.e. $145M, which surprised almost everyone. Today's 12% drop much reflected that.

Analysts rushed out to downgrade it. ML rated it "Sell" this morning.

Regardless of those bad things, I view this selloff as an opportunity to buy. Why?

The current revenue of JDS consists of mainly thin-film (non-telecom) sales (53%) and telecom opticals (47%). No body really counts on non-telecom sales in the future (although it is important in the near term). It's also true that JDSU is an extremely expensive stock by any accounting standard. People are betting on future expansion (more precisely recovery) of telecom related sales. From waht I know, its telecom related sales reached a "stable" stage. NT's report soemhow supported that idea (10% sequential growth in optics).

JDS also indicated that the decline in sales for the current Q is due to non-telecom sales drop. Internally, managers also confirmed optics business "stabilized".

Optical communication sooner or later will replace copper wires. This is the future of the world, which will provide the hard core for the internet revolution. The advancement of wireless will also stimulate the implementation of optical networks from long haul to metro to entreprise and to home (10 year from now?).

If you are a long term investor with patience, it is probably a good time to take some position in JDU/T or JDSU/Q.

Again, I don't recommend you to feed up yourself in one shot and right today. I believe JDSU will not see any meaningful surge any time soon. It may go further lower or stay in the range for quite a while (2 months?). So will the general market be. Sept. and October are usually good time to buy stocks. Hope this year is not exceptional.

Please comment!

 

[流星]

its cap still too much (4B), which analyst believe shall be close to 2B.

 

[arealchinese]

This is to reply to Buddy:

Thanks for the compliments. There are plenty of websites today to check info. I, personally, like "finance.yahoo.com", "cnnfn.com" and the company's own website. Occasionally, I also goto SEC's website. To check balance sheet, reported sales, cash flow, true market cap, ... of a company, the most official and repliable sources are their own 10-K and 10-Q forms. All of the forms filed with SEC are official (however, it doesn't mean the truth, forgot ERON?). Other than those documents, all of the rest are referentials and can not be taken seriously. I never believe any analyst or CEOs. They speak only for purpose!

Let me know if you need more info. Sorry for the late reply!