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As a G8 capital, Ottawa is a place where important people meet. There’s a broad diplomatic establishment, throngs of summer tourists, conferences, state ceremonies, senior military commanders and the seat and machinery of government.
Ottawa is also the dateline on international news stories about Canada’s hardline stance against Iran, scathing criticism of Syria and firm support for Israel.
It’s no surprise then that federal security intelligence officers believe Ottawa is a potential target for Iranian-sponsored terrorism.
A 2013 risk assessment by the federal Integrated Terrorist Assessment Centre (ITAC) obtained by National Post reporter Stewart Bell does not specify the exact nature of the threat Tehran could pose to Ottawa. But Iran has used both its Lebanese-based proxy force, Hezbollah, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force for international attacks in the past.
“If terrorists are interested in something symbolic, well, the Peace Tower is a pretty attractive one,” says Sen. Colin Kenny, former chairman of the Senate committee on national security and defence.
“Where do we inspect people for weapons and explosives when they’re visiting the Parliament buildings? Right under the Peace Tower.
“It makes no sense at all to have (a security guard) there say, ‘May I look inside your knapsack, sir?’ because it’s too late. Boom!”
Security was an important consideration when Parliament Hill was designed in the 1860s. The site was chosen because it provided a natural boundary for the precinct, with protective topography along the east, north and west perimeters.
The wrought-iron fence along Wellington was another early security feature, as was the wide expanse of open lawn, a 19th-century military practice developed by the Royal Engineers.
The area is now guarded by hundreds of security cameras, vehicular barricades and an undisclosed number of uniformed and plainclothes RCMP officers and Commons and Senate security staff. An RCMP Emergency Response Team is believed to be stationed within striking distance.
The Hill has never been successfully attacked. The handful of modern terrorist incidents and major security breaches in Ottawa have largely occurred against foreign embassies and individual diplomats.
But the newly declassified ITAC report raises the spectre of a sophisticated assault by an organization with proven capabilities for political assassinations and bombings.
It describes Tehran’s intense displeasure at being isolated by Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and notes last year’s alleged plot to derail a Toronto-bound passenger train is believed to have been directed by al-Qaida figures in Iran.
So, has Iran reached a violent tipping point with Canada? Is Ottawa sufficiently fortified? How concerned should we be?
Experts interviewed this week conclude this: Hezbollah is an important threat, but the probability of an Iranian-Hezbollah hit on the capital is low. If the aim was to strike against the West, there are other higher-value targets outside Canada.
“Canada is by and large off the political radar screens of most of these groups. It’s hard to see al-Qaida affiliates or terrorist movements abroad turning their sights on Ottawa specifically,” says Wesley Wark, a national security expert at the University of Ottawa.
“But a Canadian urban centre might be the bullseye of some disaffected Canadian who went the route of jihad and had the means to try violence. We’ve been there before in terms of the so-called Toronto 18 plot.”
The world of terrorism threats, however, is constantly changing. If Iran feels Canada threatens it on a fundamental issue or issues, it could potentially lash out in retaliation.
Complicating matters, the United States and Britain are now looking at Shiite Iran as an ally against the Sunni extremists with the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) fighting to take over parts of Iraq and Syria. Some experts believe a triumphant ISIS could be the next terrorist threat the West might face.
In the meantime, Canada is maintaining its hardline against Iran.
The Conservative government has already infuriated Tehran with its hawkish stance and economic sanctions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, along with the 2012 expulsion of Iran’s ambassador to Canada and officially designating Iran and Syria as states that support terrorism.
“In the last five years or so, we’ve been leading in a lot of foreign policy issues. But leading has consequences and part of those consequences is that it puts us in the target zone,” says Ray Boisvert, former head of counter-terrorism and later assistant director of intelligence for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.
“We’ve done a lot and said a lot about Iran at the most senior levels and that could potentially have a tipping point.
“It’s an important threat, it’s not, however, the most important threat. I wouldn’t recommend government spend inordinate amounts of time looking at it.”
Hezbollah is certainly up to the task. The Shiite Muslim political party and militant group is considered one of the most capable terrorist organizations in the world. It benefits from Iran’s intelligence and security apparatus, which Boisvert says has grown exponentially in sophistication over the last 20 years.
Hezbollah’s goals are resistance to western involvement in the Middle East, the destruction of Israel and the establishment of a revolutionary Shiite Islamic state in Lebanon modelled after Iran. Its fighters are increasingly involved in the Syrian civil war supporting the Assad regime.
The group is believed to have become active here around 1987. Despite being listed as a terrorist entity and outlawed in 2002, it remains active here in fundraising, recruiting, equipment procurement and intelligence gathering.
“They have it good here,” says Tom Quiggin, an Ottawa terrorism expert who is authoring a study on Iranian radical influences in Canada. “They make lots of money, they get lots of weapons, they gain some political influence.”
However, extremism and radicalization in Canada are evolving, he says.
“Whereas, (older Hezbollah) guys would argue, ‘Canada is a good place, let’s keep a low profile, let’s not cause any real trouble’, there’s a new generation coming up that’s hotter, angrier, more blood-thirsty and more influenced by what they see in Iraq and Syria, and they are more likely to strike out blindly (with) violence that isn’t necessarily connected to a strategic objective.”
He attributes some of the change to the increasing influence in Canada of Khomenism, Iran’s official state ideology based on the hardline Islamic doctrines of the Iranian Revolution leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
“That may be what’s worrying the folks at ITAC, a generational shift is occurring and we can see it in Canada,” with the growing number of young Canadian jihadists fighting and dying on Middle Eastern battlefields and in global terrorist operations.
It’s been at least seven months since ITAC produced its assessment. Wark says the political climate surrounding Iran has brightened considerably, especially international hopes that a July deal can be negotiated with Iran to limit its nuclear activities.
“When there seemed a possibility that there would be no movement on negotiations and no thawing to any degree of the deadlock between Iran and the West, it raised the spectre of the possibility of some kind of western military strike against Iran to try and slow down or stop its nuclear program.
“The reasonable calculation in that scenario would be that Iran would reach for whatever weapons it might have to strike back and one of those weapons would be Hezbollah and the possibility if using something like the al-Quds force.”
But, “the whole spectacle of Iran launching proxy attacks in a certain scenario in which Iran itself is under attack, I think both elements of that story have gone away for now.”
Kenny, meanwhile, believes it would be a mistake to sit back.
He’s calling for an underground visitors’ centre and parking lot to be constructed beneath the Parliament Hill lawn where visitors to the Centre Block could be searched for weapons before they enter the building. It would also serve to remove vehicles from the Hill and ease area parking congestion.
“It seems unfortunate that we have to wait for something bad to happen before that funding comes,” he says. “Putting in the underground facility is expensive, but having said that, having Parliament Hill is expensive.
“If we’re going to make it a functioning building going forward in this century, it’s going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. What I’m suggesting could be a small fraction of that, would directly serve Canadians coming to visit their Parliament.”
As he speaks, he produces a black plastic panic button about the size and shape of a car key fob distributed to many politicians on the Hill. Others are installed in committee meeting rooms and offices.
“You mess with me,” he says, pretending to push the button, “and see what happens.”
imacleod@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
Ottawa is also the dateline on international news stories about Canada’s hardline stance against Iran, scathing criticism of Syria and firm support for Israel.
It’s no surprise then that federal security intelligence officers believe Ottawa is a potential target for Iranian-sponsored terrorism.
A 2013 risk assessment by the federal Integrated Terrorist Assessment Centre (ITAC) obtained by National Post reporter Stewart Bell does not specify the exact nature of the threat Tehran could pose to Ottawa. But Iran has used both its Lebanese-based proxy force, Hezbollah, and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force for international attacks in the past.
“If terrorists are interested in something symbolic, well, the Peace Tower is a pretty attractive one,” says Sen. Colin Kenny, former chairman of the Senate committee on national security and defence.
“Where do we inspect people for weapons and explosives when they’re visiting the Parliament buildings? Right under the Peace Tower.
“It makes no sense at all to have (a security guard) there say, ‘May I look inside your knapsack, sir?’ because it’s too late. Boom!”
Security was an important consideration when Parliament Hill was designed in the 1860s. The site was chosen because it provided a natural boundary for the precinct, with protective topography along the east, north and west perimeters.
The wrought-iron fence along Wellington was another early security feature, as was the wide expanse of open lawn, a 19th-century military practice developed by the Royal Engineers.
The area is now guarded by hundreds of security cameras, vehicular barricades and an undisclosed number of uniformed and plainclothes RCMP officers and Commons and Senate security staff. An RCMP Emergency Response Team is believed to be stationed within striking distance.
The Hill has never been successfully attacked. The handful of modern terrorist incidents and major security breaches in Ottawa have largely occurred against foreign embassies and individual diplomats.
But the newly declassified ITAC report raises the spectre of a sophisticated assault by an organization with proven capabilities for political assassinations and bombings.
It describes Tehran’s intense displeasure at being isolated by Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird and notes last year’s alleged plot to derail a Toronto-bound passenger train is believed to have been directed by al-Qaida figures in Iran.
So, has Iran reached a violent tipping point with Canada? Is Ottawa sufficiently fortified? How concerned should we be?
Experts interviewed this week conclude this: Hezbollah is an important threat, but the probability of an Iranian-Hezbollah hit on the capital is low. If the aim was to strike against the West, there are other higher-value targets outside Canada.
“Canada is by and large off the political radar screens of most of these groups. It’s hard to see al-Qaida affiliates or terrorist movements abroad turning their sights on Ottawa specifically,” says Wesley Wark, a national security expert at the University of Ottawa.
“But a Canadian urban centre might be the bullseye of some disaffected Canadian who went the route of jihad and had the means to try violence. We’ve been there before in terms of the so-called Toronto 18 plot.”
The world of terrorism threats, however, is constantly changing. If Iran feels Canada threatens it on a fundamental issue or issues, it could potentially lash out in retaliation.
Complicating matters, the United States and Britain are now looking at Shiite Iran as an ally against the Sunni extremists with the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) fighting to take over parts of Iraq and Syria. Some experts believe a triumphant ISIS could be the next terrorist threat the West might face.
In the meantime, Canada is maintaining its hardline against Iran.
The Conservative government has already infuriated Tehran with its hawkish stance and economic sanctions over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, along with the 2012 expulsion of Iran’s ambassador to Canada and officially designating Iran and Syria as states that support terrorism.
“In the last five years or so, we’ve been leading in a lot of foreign policy issues. But leading has consequences and part of those consequences is that it puts us in the target zone,” says Ray Boisvert, former head of counter-terrorism and later assistant director of intelligence for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.
“We’ve done a lot and said a lot about Iran at the most senior levels and that could potentially have a tipping point.
“It’s an important threat, it’s not, however, the most important threat. I wouldn’t recommend government spend inordinate amounts of time looking at it.”
Hezbollah is certainly up to the task. The Shiite Muslim political party and militant group is considered one of the most capable terrorist organizations in the world. It benefits from Iran’s intelligence and security apparatus, which Boisvert says has grown exponentially in sophistication over the last 20 years.
Hezbollah’s goals are resistance to western involvement in the Middle East, the destruction of Israel and the establishment of a revolutionary Shiite Islamic state in Lebanon modelled after Iran. Its fighters are increasingly involved in the Syrian civil war supporting the Assad regime.
The group is believed to have become active here around 1987. Despite being listed as a terrorist entity and outlawed in 2002, it remains active here in fundraising, recruiting, equipment procurement and intelligence gathering.
“They have it good here,” says Tom Quiggin, an Ottawa terrorism expert who is authoring a study on Iranian radical influences in Canada. “They make lots of money, they get lots of weapons, they gain some political influence.”
However, extremism and radicalization in Canada are evolving, he says.
“Whereas, (older Hezbollah) guys would argue, ‘Canada is a good place, let’s keep a low profile, let’s not cause any real trouble’, there’s a new generation coming up that’s hotter, angrier, more blood-thirsty and more influenced by what they see in Iraq and Syria, and they are more likely to strike out blindly (with) violence that isn’t necessarily connected to a strategic objective.”
He attributes some of the change to the increasing influence in Canada of Khomenism, Iran’s official state ideology based on the hardline Islamic doctrines of the Iranian Revolution leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
“That may be what’s worrying the folks at ITAC, a generational shift is occurring and we can see it in Canada,” with the growing number of young Canadian jihadists fighting and dying on Middle Eastern battlefields and in global terrorist operations.
It’s been at least seven months since ITAC produced its assessment. Wark says the political climate surrounding Iran has brightened considerably, especially international hopes that a July deal can be negotiated with Iran to limit its nuclear activities.
“When there seemed a possibility that there would be no movement on negotiations and no thawing to any degree of the deadlock between Iran and the West, it raised the spectre of the possibility of some kind of western military strike against Iran to try and slow down or stop its nuclear program.
“The reasonable calculation in that scenario would be that Iran would reach for whatever weapons it might have to strike back and one of those weapons would be Hezbollah and the possibility if using something like the al-Quds force.”
But, “the whole spectacle of Iran launching proxy attacks in a certain scenario in which Iran itself is under attack, I think both elements of that story have gone away for now.”
Kenny, meanwhile, believes it would be a mistake to sit back.
He’s calling for an underground visitors’ centre and parking lot to be constructed beneath the Parliament Hill lawn where visitors to the Centre Block could be searched for weapons before they enter the building. It would also serve to remove vehicles from the Hill and ease area parking congestion.
“It seems unfortunate that we have to wait for something bad to happen before that funding comes,” he says. “Putting in the underground facility is expensive, but having said that, having Parliament Hill is expensive.
“If we’re going to make it a functioning building going forward in this century, it’s going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars. What I’m suggesting could be a small fraction of that, would directly serve Canadians coming to visit their Parliament.”
As he speaks, he produces a black plastic panic button about the size and shape of a car key fob distributed to many politicians on the Hill. Others are installed in committee meeting rooms and offices.
“You mess with me,” he says, pretending to push the button, “and see what happens.”
imacleod@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
