除温哥华和多伦多，加拿大房地产市场一炮无

[reine02]

@ert0000
How the housing market has cooled in most of Canada
Average housing price numbers somewhat skewed by the hot markets in Vancouver, Toronto
By Mark Gollom, CBC News Posted: Jul 16, 2014 5:00 AM ET Last Updated: Jul 16, 2014 10:07 AM ET

According to CREA, the average price of a Canadian home sold in June was $413,215, up 6.9 per cent from June of last year. (Jonathan Hayward/Canadian Press)

While the headlines from the Canadian Real Estate Association may highlight the nearly seven per cent spike in the average price of a house over the past year, analysts say the real story is that for most of the country, the housing boom appears to be over.

"It’s not a disaster by any means, but we’re very much back to a normal or a soft market in a lot of parts of Canada," said housing analyst Ben Rabidoux, president of North Cove Advisors,

According to CREA, the average price of a Canadian home sold in June was $413,215, up 6.9 per cent from June of last year.

• Canadian home prices in June up almost 7% to $413,215 average
• MAP: House prices across Canada
• 'Average' house prices don't tell the whole story
• Housing prices 20% overvalued in Canada, Fitch warns

But that data is somewhat skewed by hot housing markets in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, where the average price of resale homes came in at $800,362 and $555,430 respectively. CREA noted that if those two cities are stripped out of the picture, the average Canadian house is worth a "more modest" $336,164 and the annual increase shrinks to 5.2 per cent.

'Don't see an exciting story anywhere else'

"Across the country you can find a few major markets that are very, very strong but you can find most of the communities are not very strong at all right now," said housing economist Will Dunning. "In a lot of those areas, the numbers are even weaker than one might hope for. The economy is slowing down in a lot of places and the housing market is part of that slowdown."

"The strength is in Vancouver, Calgary, Hamilton and Toronto and you don’t see as exciting a story almost everywhere else in Canada."

While the Canada-wide number is very strong, it hides very sharp regional differences, Rabidoux said.

For instance, in Hamilton, the average price of a home lists around $400,000; in Calgary around $460,000. But Regina home prices average just $300,000, in Halifax, they average $275,000 and in Quebec City, just $268,000. And in those regions, prices have either cooled or dropped altogether.

'Haves and the have-nots'

“Outside of a few major metros, the boom is over," he said. "In fact, we’re seeing now a number of markets that are seeing weakness that we haven’t seen in 20 years. And that’s very much being hidden by this incredible strength in Toronto and Vancouver."

"So it’s very much a story right now about the haves and the have-nots and that’s sort of hidden in the [CREA] headline," Rabidoux said.

"You've got this very severe imbalance between supply and demand. And you have the exact opposite dynamic in Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto where you’ve got not a lot of supply and a lot of demand," Rabidoux said. "We really haven't seen a national market like this where we have such sharp regional differences."

In provinces like Manitoba and Saskatchewan, sales continue to be reasonably strong, Rabidoux said, but there is "unprecedented inventory" on the market.

"Especially in places like Winnipeg and Regina, you have these extremely soft markets. and that's going to keep prices very weak for probably another year."

Ontario is a bit of mixed bag, he said. Sales are strong in Toronto and Hamilton, but weaken once you head east.

'There you have weak sales, all the way from Ottawa. Every major metro from Ottawa east has weak sales and record high inventory."

David Madani, an analyst for Capital Economics, agreed that the boom is over in most of the country but expressed concern over the role played by Toronto and Vancouver in the overall housing market.

"It really is just Vancouver and Toronto holding things up which actually makes me more worried about the overall housing market because I know Toronto and Vancouver are the trouble spots," he said. "So the fact that they're propping things up isn't encouraging at all."

As well, affordability is a "major problem" for both cities, Madani said. In Vancouver, housing prices are roughly 10 times income, which Madanisays is "historically off the charts." Toronto housing prices, meanwhile, are around seven times income.

"I think the low interest rates have become a curse, not a blessing for the economy because it's encouraging people to pay even higher prices for housing relative to their income," Madani said. "And when interest rates start to creep back up, affordability will become an even greater problem."

When that happens, Madani said there will be a much larger decline in home sales, and when prices begin to drop nationally, prospective home buyers, seeing prices edging down, will postpone or delay their purchasing decision.

With sales falling even further and the market price for a home falling, everyone who owns a home will see the value their home go down, Madani said.

 

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Housing prices 20% overvalued in Canada, Fitch warns


CBC News Posted: Jul 14, 2014 12:18 PM ET Last Updated: Jul 14, 2014 3:00 PM ET

Oversupply in Ottawa, Halifax

Prices in Ottawa-Gatineau fell by 1.7 per cent, while Quebec City prices were down 2.4 per cent compared to a year ago.

Randall Bartlett, a senior economist at TD Bank, said there was an oversupply of homes in Quebec City, Ottawa and Halifax, leading to falling prices.

The surge of house resale activity that normally takes place in the spring led to a strong pace of sales in June.

But Bartlett said there were signs the market might slow later in the year.

“With the housing market having now shaken off the winter blues, price are continuing to rise at a solid pace. That said, the continued deceleration in price growth on a year-over-year basis may be an indication that the Canadian housing market is becoming more balanced,” he wrote in a note to investors.

“We expect to see the cooling trend continue through the end of 2015. This view is premised on rising prices encouraging strong growth in new listings while the number of newly competed housing units remain elevated, both of which will boost supply and weigh on prices. At the same time, interest rates are likely to grind higher in Canada, resulting in reduced affordability,” he said.

The majority of analysts, including the Bank of Canada, forecast a soft landing for housing, probably when rates go up later in the year.

But as price increases continue and mortgage holders become increasingly stretched, the OECD and World Bank have warned Canada over housing.

Former finance minister Jim Flaherty had attempted to cool the market by tightening mortgage rules and reducing amortization periods.

But Fitch believes those measures didn't go far enough.

"We believe high household debt relative to disposable income has made the market more susceptible to market stresses like unemployment or interest rate increases," the agency said in its assessment issued Monday.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/housing-prices-20-overvalued-in-canada-fitch-warns-1.2706388

 

[mimi_ge]

下跌1.7,这才是真实数字

 

[ID Search Fail]

西边儿那头房价就没往下跌过的。俺家路口曾经有个看着像当年挖铁路的年代的破房子，连窗子都是纸糊的，总面积加一起不到3000尺。10年前有人20出头万买了下来，当时小区里大人还在那儿讨论这人多SB。房子放着10年没动，连收拾都没收拾。上周俺娘打电话给我说那块地又卖了，成交59万。

 

[timmy]

。。。10年前有人20出头万买了下来，当时小区里大人还在那儿讨论这人多SB。房子放着10年没动，连收拾都没收拾。上周俺娘打电话给我说那块地又卖了，成交59万。

扣除地税和费用，十年间也就是涨了一倍。在最黄金的城市和最黄金的十年，这可没多巴贝。
可见除了自住需要，投资房地产不是一个想当然的好选择。

 

[mimi_ge]

扣除地税和费用，十年间也就是涨了一倍。在最黄金的城市和最黄金的十年，这可没多巴贝。
可见除了自住需要，投资房地产不是一个想当然的好选择。

20到60，那是赚了2倍，地税不到1点一年。
投资地产可以放大杠杆，最起码5倍。
股票风险大，可透支额度远远小于房产，就算10年经受了经济危机，没有割肉，现在的涨幅也远远落后与房产，连最差的ottawa房市都不如。

 

[ID Search Fail]

扣除地税和费用，十年间也就是涨了一倍。在最黄金的城市和最黄金的十年，这可没多巴贝。
可见除了自住需要，投资房地产不是一个想当然的好选择。

俺想说的是，59w只是那块地。内房子是肯定要推翻的因为所有设施都是过时不能用的。