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After years of government downsizing, the region’s economy may finally be set for recovery, concludes a report published Monday morning by the Conference Board of Canada.
The Ottawa-based research group said the value of all goods and services produced in the National Capital Region (our local gross domestic product) should grow 1.8 per cent next year excluding inflation, a considerable improvement over the 0.7 per cent rise expected this year.
Even better, the report notes, next year’s rise should outpace the region’s growth in population — which means per capita GDP would increase for the first time since 2010.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that among the country’s 13 largest cities, Ottawa-Gatineau shares with Victoria and Quebec City the distinction of having the weakest economic prospects through to 2018.
The Conference Board predicts growth in each of these government towns will average 2.1 per cent per year after inflation from 2015 to 2018. Nevertheless, the spread between the bottom- and top-performing cities will likely remain modest. Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto are expected to see their economies grow roughly three per cent annually until 2018.
The Conference Board predicts the country as a whole will grow 2.7 per cent next year — and average 2.3 per cent annually from 2015 to 2018.
In Ottawa-Gatineau, one of the biggest influences has been the decline of the public sector — which accounted for nearly 24 per cent of all jobs as recently as 2011 and currently makes up less than 21 per cent. The biggest decline occurred in 2013, when municipal, provincial and federal governments combined shaved nearly 17,000 positions. Another 2,700 or so will have been cut this year.
The number employed in public administration this year on average was 146,000 — and the Conference Board doesn’t expect this total to vary much in the years to come. Which means we have to look to other sectors to provide growth.
The Conference Board anticipates that high-tech and business services will be key catalysts — helped in part by spending on several high-profile construction projects. These include light rail transit, the redevelopment of Lansdowne Park and several retail mall expansions.
Five things you should know about the region’s economic prospects
Avg. annual GDP growth, 2015-2018:
Ottawa-Gatineau: (2.1%);
Canada (2.3%)
Unemployment rate
Ottawa-Gatineau: 6.6% (2014); 6.2% (2015)
Canada: 6.8% (2014); 6.5% (2015)
Real GDP in 2014
Ottawa-Gatineau: $63.5 billion (2014); $64.6 billion (2015)
Canada: $1,728.4 billion (2014); $1,774.8 billion (2015)
Housing starts
Ottawa-Gatineau: 7,683 (2014); 7,092 (2015)
Canada: 188,400 (2014); 186,000 (2015)
Retail sales
Ottawa-Gatineau: $18.1 billion (2014); $18.7 billion (2015)
Canada: $502.2 billion (2014); $522.3 billion (2015)
Source: Conference Board of Canada
jbagnall@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
The Ottawa-based research group said the value of all goods and services produced in the National Capital Region (our local gross domestic product) should grow 1.8 per cent next year excluding inflation, a considerable improvement over the 0.7 per cent rise expected this year.
Even better, the report notes, next year’s rise should outpace the region’s growth in population — which means per capita GDP would increase for the first time since 2010.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that among the country’s 13 largest cities, Ottawa-Gatineau shares with Victoria and Quebec City the distinction of having the weakest economic prospects through to 2018.
The Conference Board predicts growth in each of these government towns will average 2.1 per cent per year after inflation from 2015 to 2018. Nevertheless, the spread between the bottom- and top-performing cities will likely remain modest. Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto are expected to see their economies grow roughly three per cent annually until 2018.
The Conference Board predicts the country as a whole will grow 2.7 per cent next year — and average 2.3 per cent annually from 2015 to 2018.
In Ottawa-Gatineau, one of the biggest influences has been the decline of the public sector — which accounted for nearly 24 per cent of all jobs as recently as 2011 and currently makes up less than 21 per cent. The biggest decline occurred in 2013, when municipal, provincial and federal governments combined shaved nearly 17,000 positions. Another 2,700 or so will have been cut this year.
The number employed in public administration this year on average was 146,000 — and the Conference Board doesn’t expect this total to vary much in the years to come. Which means we have to look to other sectors to provide growth.
The Conference Board anticipates that high-tech and business services will be key catalysts — helped in part by spending on several high-profile construction projects. These include light rail transit, the redevelopment of Lansdowne Park and several retail mall expansions.
Five things you should know about the region’s economic prospects
Avg. annual GDP growth, 2015-2018:
Ottawa-Gatineau: (2.1%);
Canada (2.3%)
Unemployment rate
Ottawa-Gatineau: 6.6% (2014); 6.2% (2015)
Canada: 6.8% (2014); 6.5% (2015)
Real GDP in 2014
Ottawa-Gatineau: $63.5 billion (2014); $64.6 billion (2015)
Canada: $1,728.4 billion (2014); $1,774.8 billion (2015)
Housing starts
Ottawa-Gatineau: 7,683 (2014); 7,092 (2015)
Canada: 188,400 (2014); 186,000 (2015)
Retail sales
Ottawa-Gatineau: $18.1 billion (2014); $18.7 billion (2015)
Canada: $502.2 billion (2014); $522.3 billion (2015)
Source: Conference Board of Canada
jbagnall@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
