- 注册
- 2002-10-07
- 消息
- 402,179
- 荣誉分数
- 76
- 声望点数
- 0
What does the Bank of Canada’s cut in the overnight lending rate to 0.75 per cent mean to Canadians? We asked Mike Moffatt, assistant professor of business, economics and public policy at the Ivey Business School at Western University; and Leslie Preston, an economist with TD Bank in Toronto.
Q. Did you see this coming?
Moffatt: It caught a lot of us off-guard. There was a survey of 36 economists before the announcement and they all predicted no change in rates. It caught the profession off-guard and it caught the markets off-guard.
Preston: I can humbly say that I did not.
Q. What does this mean for my investments? Are they safe?
Moffatt: The Canadian dollar is down significantly, so if you have a lot of assets in U.S. dollars, this is a very good thing for you. We’re going to see lower bond yields and lower interest rates on people who have fixed income-type securities. Overall, the TSX seemed to like the move, and shot up a couple of hundred points.
Q. Should I put money into the market now, or hold it back?
Moffatt: You shouldn’t make those decisions based on day-to-day fluctuations. I’ve always had the philosophy of buy and hold, look toward the long term. Make sure your portfolio weighting between stocks, bonds, mutual funds, what have you, is appropriate to your savings goal. I’d caution anyone who’s thinking about investing to not overreact to today’s announcement. Stick with whatever your plan is.
Q. Is it a good time to take out a mortgage? Buy a car?
Moffatt: This certainly helps you. For a mortgage, you do want to be careful that five years from now when that mortgage rolls over, that you’ll still be able to afford that mortgage, when rates will likely be significantly higher. Don’t bite off more than you can chew. There’s going to be a lot of competition out there as lenders try to get new customers. It’s a good time to be shopping around.
Preston: Canadians have already pared back their borrowing dramatically over the past couple of years. Household debts were growing at a nearly double-digit pace not that long ago and they’ve come down to close to four per cent year-on-year. I think Canadians heeded the warnings about high debt levels. Will they respond to the slight reduction in overnight rate? The jury is out.
Q. What does this mean about the economy? Should I be worried about my job?
Moffatt: Because this is such an unusual move – the Bank of Canada is forecasting the economy to be significantly weaker than many of us were expecting – they’ve lowered interest rates to boost the economy in the short to medium term. But what this suggests is that with low oil prices, there are significant portions of the Canadian economy – Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador being the obvious ones – that are going to have significant weaknesses going forward.
Where you’re already starting to see the effect of low prices is on new oilsands construction and new offshore oil rig construction in Newfoundland and Labrador. Those projects are financed by banks out of Toronto, so there is a trickle-down effect. What happens in Alberta and Newfoundland is felt in Ontario.
Q. Does this affect what I will pay for goods such as groceries, clothing?
Preston: We’ve already seen inflation for some things like clothing accelerate and that can be attributed to the fall in the Canadian dollar. As the dollar falls, the things we import get more expensive. So over the medium term, it will probably raise the price of things that we import. But at the same time, we have lower oil prices and lower transportation costs, so it’s a tug of war.
The Bank of Canada’s job is to keep inflation as close to two per cent as possible. Low inflation isn’t a problem, but the bank wants to leave a cushion so if the economy is hit by a shock, it isn’t tipped into deflation. If prices are going down, people start delaying consumption decisions. Why would you buy something today when it’s going to be cheaper three months from now? That’s the situation Japan is in now.
Q. What will this do to interest rates on my savings account?
Moffatt: Those are likely to be lower. If you have money in a savings account that has a low interest – they’re already paying next to nothing and that’s going to be reduced even further.
Q. It’s the season when we think about putting more money into our RRSPs. What will this fall in BoC rates mean to my retirement funds and plans?
Moffatt: What this means is that for equities you might hold in an RRSP or TFSA, those are likely to appreciate and did appreciate with the bank’s announcement. But any sort of fixed income assets will not be paying very much interest at all.
Q. Will some areas of the country be better off than others, such as Ontario?
Moffatt: Overall, it’s good news for Ontario. Lower interest rates are going to help manufacturers and other companies expand further. And by knocking down the Canadian dollar a little bit, it helps our export industries. Premier (Kathleen) Wynne made some remarks that Ontario acts as a balance for the rest of the country, and there’s a lot of truth to that. When Alberta is doing well and oil prices are high, we start to see problems with manufacturing in southwestern Ontario. Now we’re going to start seeing the opposite.
Preston: A lower Canadian dollar helps a lot of Canadian exporters. At the margin, it’s a positive for the Ontario economy, but it’s set against the negative impact on the whole of the Canadian economy.
– These interviews have been edited for length and clarity.
bcrawford@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
Q. Did you see this coming?
Moffatt: It caught a lot of us off-guard. There was a survey of 36 economists before the announcement and they all predicted no change in rates. It caught the profession off-guard and it caught the markets off-guard.
Preston: I can humbly say that I did not.
Q. What does this mean for my investments? Are they safe?
Moffatt: The Canadian dollar is down significantly, so if you have a lot of assets in U.S. dollars, this is a very good thing for you. We’re going to see lower bond yields and lower interest rates on people who have fixed income-type securities. Overall, the TSX seemed to like the move, and shot up a couple of hundred points.
Q. Should I put money into the market now, or hold it back?
Moffatt: You shouldn’t make those decisions based on day-to-day fluctuations. I’ve always had the philosophy of buy and hold, look toward the long term. Make sure your portfolio weighting between stocks, bonds, mutual funds, what have you, is appropriate to your savings goal. I’d caution anyone who’s thinking about investing to not overreact to today’s announcement. Stick with whatever your plan is.
Q. Is it a good time to take out a mortgage? Buy a car?
Moffatt: This certainly helps you. For a mortgage, you do want to be careful that five years from now when that mortgage rolls over, that you’ll still be able to afford that mortgage, when rates will likely be significantly higher. Don’t bite off more than you can chew. There’s going to be a lot of competition out there as lenders try to get new customers. It’s a good time to be shopping around.
Preston: Canadians have already pared back their borrowing dramatically over the past couple of years. Household debts were growing at a nearly double-digit pace not that long ago and they’ve come down to close to four per cent year-on-year. I think Canadians heeded the warnings about high debt levels. Will they respond to the slight reduction in overnight rate? The jury is out.
Q. What does this mean about the economy? Should I be worried about my job?
Moffatt: Because this is such an unusual move – the Bank of Canada is forecasting the economy to be significantly weaker than many of us were expecting – they’ve lowered interest rates to boost the economy in the short to medium term. But what this suggests is that with low oil prices, there are significant portions of the Canadian economy – Alberta, and Newfoundland and Labrador being the obvious ones – that are going to have significant weaknesses going forward.
Where you’re already starting to see the effect of low prices is on new oilsands construction and new offshore oil rig construction in Newfoundland and Labrador. Those projects are financed by banks out of Toronto, so there is a trickle-down effect. What happens in Alberta and Newfoundland is felt in Ontario.
Q. Does this affect what I will pay for goods such as groceries, clothing?
Preston: We’ve already seen inflation for some things like clothing accelerate and that can be attributed to the fall in the Canadian dollar. As the dollar falls, the things we import get more expensive. So over the medium term, it will probably raise the price of things that we import. But at the same time, we have lower oil prices and lower transportation costs, so it’s a tug of war.
The Bank of Canada’s job is to keep inflation as close to two per cent as possible. Low inflation isn’t a problem, but the bank wants to leave a cushion so if the economy is hit by a shock, it isn’t tipped into deflation. If prices are going down, people start delaying consumption decisions. Why would you buy something today when it’s going to be cheaper three months from now? That’s the situation Japan is in now.
Q. What will this do to interest rates on my savings account?
Moffatt: Those are likely to be lower. If you have money in a savings account that has a low interest – they’re already paying next to nothing and that’s going to be reduced even further.
Q. It’s the season when we think about putting more money into our RRSPs. What will this fall in BoC rates mean to my retirement funds and plans?
Moffatt: What this means is that for equities you might hold in an RRSP or TFSA, those are likely to appreciate and did appreciate with the bank’s announcement. But any sort of fixed income assets will not be paying very much interest at all.
Q. Will some areas of the country be better off than others, such as Ontario?
Moffatt: Overall, it’s good news for Ontario. Lower interest rates are going to help manufacturers and other companies expand further. And by knocking down the Canadian dollar a little bit, it helps our export industries. Premier (Kathleen) Wynne made some remarks that Ontario acts as a balance for the rest of the country, and there’s a lot of truth to that. When Alberta is doing well and oil prices are high, we start to see problems with manufacturing in southwestern Ontario. Now we’re going to start seeing the opposite.
Preston: A lower Canadian dollar helps a lot of Canadian exporters. At the margin, it’s a positive for the Ontario economy, but it’s set against the negative impact on the whole of the Canadian economy.
– These interviews have been edited for length and clarity.
bcrawford@ottawacitizen.com
查看原文...
